CALL Play Updates

Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 58.21 change: +2.21 stop: 49.45

FLR may have produced a short-term bearish reversal today but shares only traded in a $1.50 range as investors waited for the earnings report. FLR announced after the closing bell that its second quarter earnings came in at 93 cents, which was 2 cents better than expected. Revenues came in under Wall Street's estimates, which has been a common occurrence this season. Management reaffirmed prior guidance for the rest of the year. The stock was trading lower after hours and appears to be headed for the $55.00 level, which as broken resistance should be support.

I am upping our entry point to buy calls to $52.25 (from 51.00). We'll leave our stop loss at $49.45 for now.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 52.25
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           08/10/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 141.33 chg: -0.34 stop: 139.95

The U.S. dollar has continued to bounce and the FXE dipped to $141.00 and traded near its rising 50-dma. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 0.57
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 39.10 change: -0.88 stop: 36.90

The rising dollar also weighed on commodities and gold slipped lower. The GDX followed and gave up 2.2%. Look for a bounce from here as a new entry point but I'd probably wait for a bounce back above the $40.00 mark. GDX has already exceeded our first target. Our second target is $44.00.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 2.61
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 50.95 change: -0.02 stop: 44.95

IDXX displayed some relative strength by only losing two cents on the session. Shares consolidated sideways and if you look at an intraday chart you can see the coiling pennant-shaped pattern. IDXX should see a breakout one way or the other pretty soon. I hesitate to buy new call positions here. Currently we have two strategies for IDXX.

Aggressive strategy: Entry point at $51.10. Stop loss at $48.99. Our first target is $54.85. I suggest very small positions sizes (about 1/4 of your normal trading size).

Original plan is to buy calls at $47.50 with a stop at $44.95. If triggered at $47.50 our first target is $52.00. Our second target is $54.90. Our time frame is six to eight weeks once triggered.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $77 target.

*Aggressive Strategy*
Entry on    August 05 at $ 51.10 *stop loss @ 48.99   
Change since picked:      - 0.15

*Original Strategy*
Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGERs @ 47.50 
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/24/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       383 thousand 
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


J.C.Penney - JCP - close: 33.21 change: -1.22 stop: 29.99

Retail stocks were hot on Friday and they hit some profit taking today with the RLX retail index losing about 2%. JCP, which soared almost 10% on Friday gave up 3.5% today. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. JCP has exceeded our first target. Our second and final target to exit is $34.90. This was an aggressive trade using half our normal position size.

Picked on   August 03 at $ 31.05 *triggered /gap higher entry
Change since picked:      + 2.16
                               /1st target hit @ 32.75 (+5.4%)
Earnings Date           08/14/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Legg Mason - LM - close: 27.84 change: -0.66 stop: 23.99

LM lost 2.3% and it looks like shares are finally ready to correct. On a short-term basis there appears to be a bearish double top near $29.00. Momentum indicators are rolling over. I'm sticking with our plan to buy a dip. Our trigger is $25.55. If triggered our first target is $29.75. Our second target is $33.40. My time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $39 target.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 25.55
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Lorillard Inc. - LO - close: 73.49 change: +0.68 stop: 69.45

The MACD on the daily chart is very close to turning bearish in spite of today's 0.9% bounce. We are still waiting for a dip near $70.00 with a trigger to buy calls at $70.50. Our first target is $74.50. Our second target is $77.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92.00 target.

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Polaris - PII - close: 38.91 change: +0.13 stop: 31.95

PII tried to rally again but stalled under $39.60. We're waiting for a correction. The plan is to buy calls at $34.15. Our first target is $37.50. Our second target is $39.90. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $43.50 target.

Note: More aggressive traders could buy puts right here with a stop loss just above $40.00 and exit in the $35 region.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 34.15
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Genzyme - GENZ - close: 50.54 change: +2.34 stop: 52.55

Is this a bullish reversal in shares of GENZ or a one-day pop by short covering? The company issued a press release today regarding its Boston plant, the same plant it shut down in June to clean up an infection in its bio-reactors. GENZ said the facility is back online but they have decided to trash 80% of its "work in progress" components for one of its key drugs Cerezyme. Management said the move would result in a second quarter charge and guided full year earnings toward the low end of its prior forecasts.

I suspect that the company's move to dump the current crop of Cerezyme material may have been interpreted as a positive by the market. The company is taking a short-term hit but they're removing longer-term liability of producing potentially tainted treatments.

Technically volume on the move was strong and the close over $50.00 is short-term bullish but GENZ still has resistance in the $51-52 zone. Watch for the bounce to roll over under $52.00 and use it as a new entry point to buy puts. Our first target to take profits is $45.25. Our second target is $41.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $40 target.

Picked on   August 03 at $ 49.90 *triggered         
Change since picked:      + 0.64
Earnings Date           10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.9 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Biotech Ishares - IBB - close: 76.83 change: -0.09 stop: 80.75

Biotech stocks continued to slip but they were bouncing from their Monday afternoon lows before the closing bell sounded. I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Currently our exit target is $75.10. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $74-73 area.

Picked on     July 30 at $ 79.44
Change since picked:      - 2.52
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       892 thousand 
Listed on  July 30, 2009         


Intl.Business Machines - IBM - cls: 118.70 change: -0.63 stop: 120.55

IBM gapped lower at the open and spent the day churning sideways. I've adjusted our entry point. I would still open put positions in the $118.00-120.00 zone. Our first target to take profits is at $113.75, which is just above the top of the gap from mid July. Our second and final target is $111.25, which is near the bottom of the gap.

FYI: If IBM does fill the gap it may turned into a bullish candidate.

Picked on   August 08 at $118.17 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $119.33
Change since picked:      + 0.53
Earnings Date           10/08/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.9 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Intercontintental Exchange - ICE - cls: 93.68 change: +0.08 stop: 98.25

ICE spent the session drifting sideways. I see no changes from the weekend play description.

The plan is to buy half our put position now and then buy the second half when ICE breaks support at $90.00. We'll use a trigger at $89.85 to fill the second half. ICE can be a very volatile stock so we should consider this an aggressive trade. Our target to exit is $83.75. More aggressive traders can aim lower.

Picked on   August 08 at $ 93.60 Buy Half Now   
Change since picked:      + 0.08

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 89.85 for 2nd half
Change since picked:      + 0.00

Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.1 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


QQQ ProShares - QLD - close: 45.01 change: +0.49 stop: 46.55

The NASDAQ composite and NDX continue to slip and the QLD lost 1%. Momentum indicators are definitely turning more bearish. Our target is $40.50.

Picked on     July 30 at $ 44.89 
Change since picked:      + 0.12
Earnings Date           00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume =      13.5 million  
Listed on  July 30, 2009         


Shanda Interactive - SNDA - close: 49.96 chg: +2.13 stop: 51.25

The Chinese market was soft but the Hong Kong market soared to new highs on Monday. Shares of SNDA gained 4.4% yet the move failed to close over $50.00 and the move look like an "inside day". If you're nimble enough look for a failed-rally sort of move here near $50.00 to launch positions. Otherwise I would wait for a new decline under $48.00 to launch new bearish positions.

SNDA is a volatile stock so readers may want to use smaller position sizes. Shares should see support near $45.00 and again at $40.00. I am targeting a drop into the $41.50-40.00 zone.

Picked on   August 08 at $ 48.10 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $47.83
Change since picked:      + 1.86
Earnings Date           09/01/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 56.40 change: -2.07 stop: 60.26

Entry point! WYNN has provided us another entry point to buy puts with another failed rally under $60.00.

Due to the high-risk nature of the trade I am suggesting very small position sizes at least 1/2 to 1/4 your normal trade. Our first target is $51.00. Our second target is $48.00.

Picked on   August 05 at $ 56.57
Change since picked:      - 0.17
Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.7 million  
Listed on August 05, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 56.27 change: +1.07 stop: n/a

What happened to MCD? Here's an excerpt from the intraday update: "Dow-component McDonald's (MCD) said that worldwide same-store sales rose 4.3% in July. U.S. same-store sales gained 2.6% while European same-store sales soared 7.2%. The company benefited from penny-pinching consumers and the introduction of MCD's new line of coffee drinks." The stock gapped open higher at $55.80 and closed above $56.00 but under its 100-dma and its 200-dma. The rally erased several days of declines but is it just a one-day pop? I am not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.50 or higher.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      - 1.67
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

VistaPrint - VPRT - close: 44.33 change: +1.33 stop: 44.05

I could not find any news to account for the early morning strength in shares of VPRT. The stock spiked higher and pushed through short-term resistance near $44.00. The aggressive trade on VPRT had a stop loss at $44.05.

We had suggested small, aggressive positions in the $42-44 zone with a stop at $44.05. Our original strategy called for a trigger at $38.80 to open positions but was never hit.

I'm dropping VPRT as a bearish candidate. A breakout higher past $45.50 might be a bullish entry point.

Chart:

*Original Strategy*
Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 38.80 (never opened)
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/30/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.3 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         

*Aggressive Trade (small position 1/2 to 1/4 your normal size)*
Picked on   August 04 at $ 42.59   (stop loss @ 44.05)
Change since picked:      + 1.46 <-- stopped @ 44.05 (+3.4%)