CALL Play Updates

C.H.Robinson - CHRW - close: 55.52 change: +0.86 stop: 52.75

The market's widespread rally helped CHRW breakout over resistance near $55.00 and hit our trigger to buy calls at $55.35. The play is open. Our target is $59.50. I Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $69.00 target.

Chart:

Picked on   August 12 at $ 55.35 *triggered       
Change since picked:      + 0.17
Earnings Date           10/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.7 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 54.83 change: +0.87 stop: 49.45

FLR delivered a decent bounce after yesterday's sharp post-earnings decline. I still think it's headed for $50.00. We want to buy calls on a dip in the $51.00-50.00 zone. If triggered at $51.00 our first target is $54.80. Our second target is $59.00. This could take several weeks.

I suggest readers use the September or October calls.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 51.00
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           08/10/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 142.03 chg: +0.61 stop: 139.95

Weakness in the dollar helped the FXE gain 0.4%. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 1.27
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 38.79 change: +0.36 stop: 36.90

The oversold bounce in the GDX was rolling over this afternoon. I remain very cautious here. More conservative traders may want to exit early or maybe raise their stop loss toward the $37.50 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. GDX has already exceeded our first target. Our second target is $44.00.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 2.30
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 50.44 change: +0.06 stop: varies

Momentum indicators are suggesting the next move is going to be down. I am raising our stop loss on the aggressive trade to $49.85. Currently we have two strategies for IDXX.

Aggressive strategy: Entry point at $51.10. Stop loss at $49.85. Our first target is $54.85. We do not want to open new aggressive positions at this time. I suggested very small positions sizes (about 1/4 of your normal trading size).

Original plan is to buy calls at $47.50 with a stop at $44.95. If triggered at $47.50 our first target is $52.00. Our second target is $54.90. Our time frame is six to eight weeks once triggered.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $77 target.

*Aggressive Strategy*
Entry on    August 05 at $ 51.10 *stop loss @ 49.85 *new*
Change since picked:      - 0.66

*Original Strategy*
Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGERs @ 47.50 
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/24/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       383 thousand 
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


J.C.Penney - JCP - close: 33.21 change: +0.22 stop: 31.90 *new*

JCP didn't move much even though Macy's (M) delivered some strong earnings numbers and improved guidance. Tomorrow morning we'll get earnings out of Wal-Mart and that will have a big influence on the retail sector. Tomorrow is also our last day for this JCP play. We're exiting at Thursday's closing bell unless JCP hits our stop or target. With only one day left I'm raising the stop loss to $31.90. JCP has exceeded our first target. Our second and final target to exit is $34.90. This was an aggressive trade using half our normal position size.

Picked on   August 03 at $ 31.05 *triggered /gap higher entry
Change since picked:      + 2.16
                               /1st target hit @ 32.75 (+5.4%)
Earnings Date           08/14/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Legg Mason - LM - close: 27.97 change: +1.17 stop: 23.99

In a move to reduce debt and interest payments LM said they have successfully exchanged almost 21 million "equity" units for 0.8881 shares of common stock and $6.25 in cash. Evidently investors were happy to hear it as the stock rallied more than 4% on the session. I'm sticking with our plan to buy a dip. Our trigger is $25.55. If triggered our first target is $29.75. Our second target is $33.40. My time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $39 target.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 25.55
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Lorillard Inc. - LO - close: 73.32 change: -0.65 stop: 69.45

There is no change from my prior comments on LO. We are still waiting for a dip near $70.00 with a trigger to buy calls at $70.50. Our first target is $74.50. Our second target is $77.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92.00 target.

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Polaris - PII - close: 38.49 change: +0.51 stop: 31.95

There is no change from my previous update on PII. We're waiting for a correction. The plan is to buy calls at $34.15. Our first target is $37.50. Our second target is $39.90. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $43.50 target.

Note: More aggressive traders could buy puts right here with a stop loss just above $40.00 and exit in the $35 region.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 34.15
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 165.31 change: +2.48 stop: 167.51

Technology stocks helped lead the market's widespread bounce on Wednesday. AAPL soared to $166.71 before reversing late in the session. Shares failed to penetrate resistance in the $167.00-167.50 zone so I would use today's pop as a better entry point to buy puts. Our first target to take profits is at $156.00. Our second and final target to take profits is at $151.50. If AAPL near $150 we'll start looking at buying calls.

Picked on   August 11 at $162.83
Change since picked:      + 2.48
Earnings Date           10/21/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      17.1 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 68.72 change: +0.78 stop: 70.60

Today's bounce in CVX failed to close over the $69.00 level of its 200-dma. I see it as an improved entry point to buy puts. Our first target is $64.15. Our second target is $61.50.

Picked on   August 11 at $ 67.94
Change since picked:      + 0.78
Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      10.7 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Genzyme - GENZ - close: 50.31 change: +0.95 stop: 52.55

The biotech sector was one of the better performers today and it gave GENZ a boost. Shares rallied 1.9% and closed back above the $50.00 level. Yet the rebound failed to close over short-term resistance at its 10-dma. Volume was pretty light compared to recent sessions. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops toward the $51.00 or $51.50 levels if you're concerned that GENZ has produced a bullish reversal. Our first target to take profits is $45.25. Our second target is $41.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $40 target.

Picked on   August 03 at $ 49.90 *triggered         
Change since picked:      + 0.41
Earnings Date           10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.9 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Green Mtn Coffee - GMCR - close: 64.84 chg: -1.00 stop: 72.05

The action in GMCR today was pretty bearish. The stock failed to participate in the rally and when it did bounce it rolled over near $66.50. I see this as another entry point to buy puts.

This is a very aggressive bet that GMCR finally corrects. I suggest very small position sizes. We're going to use a very wide stop loss. Our first target to take some money off the table is $60.50. Our second target to exit completely is $55.50.

Picked on   August 11 at $ 65.84
Change since picked:      - 1.00
Earnings Date           11/12/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.8 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Biotech Ishares - IBB - close: 77.28 change: +0.78 stop: 80.75

IBB managed a bounce but it started to fail near the $78.00 level late this afternoon. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Currently our exit target is $75.10. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $74-73 area.

Picked on     July 30 at $ 79.44
Change since picked:      - 2.07
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       892 thousand 
Listed on  July 30, 2009         


Intl.Business Machines - IBM - cls: 119.29 change: +1.50 stop: 120.10

In spite of the market's widespread strength shares of IBM just couldn't push past resistance at the $120.00 mark. I wasn't expecting this bounce today and more aggressive traders may want to widen their stop just a little bit to give IBM some breathing room. Consider moving it to just over $120.50. We're going to leave our stop at $120.10 for now and readers can use today's bounce as a new entry point to buy puts! Our first target to take profits is at $113.75, which is just above the top of the gap from mid July. Our second and final target is $111.25, which is near the bottom of the gap.

FYI: If IBM does fill the gap it may turn into a bullish candidate.

Picked on   August 08 at $118.17 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $119.33
Change since picked:      + 1.12
Earnings Date           10/08/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.9 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Intercontintental Exchange - ICE - cls: 91.15 change: +0.85 stop: 98.25

The bounce in ICE was pretty subdued. The rally stalled under the 92.50 level. ICE looks poised to breakdown soon. Our plan is to buy the second half of our put position when ICE hits $89.85. ICE can be a very volatile stock so we should consider this an aggressive trade. Our target to exit is $83.75. More aggressive traders can aim lower.

Picked on   August 08 at $ 93.60 Buy Half Now   
Change since picked:      - 2.45

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 89.85 for 2nd half
Change since picked:      + 0.00

Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.1 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Marvel Entertainment - MVL - close: 38.69 change: +0.26 stop: 40.01

MVL bounced back toward the top of its short-term trading range near $39.00. More aggressive traders may want to launch put positions now. Currently our plan is to buy puts at $37.90. If triggered our target is $34.10 as the $34.00 level could be support. I'm listing a stop loss at $40.01 but more conservative traders might be able to use a tighter stop at $39.55 or just above $39.00.

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 37.90
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           11/04/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       710 thousand 
Listed on August 10, 2009         


Shanda Interactive - SNDA - close: 48.23 chg: -1.16 stop: 51.25

SNDA did not participate in the market's rally thanks to big declines back home in the Chinese markets. SNDA is inching closer to another big breakdown.

An alternative entry point would be to wait for a new decline under $48.00 to launch bearish positions.

SNDA is a volatile stock so readers may want to use smaller position sizes. Shares should see support near $45.00 and again at $40.00. I am targeting a drop into the $41.50-40.00 zone.

Picked on   August 08 at $ 48.10 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $47.83
Change since picked:      + 0.13
Earnings Date           09/01/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 56.26 change: +0.24 stop: n/a

MCD is still drifting sideways. We have seven trading days left. I am not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.50 or higher.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      - 1.68
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

QQQ ProShares - QLD - close: 45.56 change: +1.36 stop: 46.10

Hmm... looks like I should have left the stop loss where it was. Last night I lowered the stop to $46.10 and the QLD rallied to $46.32 late this afternoon. I am seriously tempted to immediately re-initiate the trade with a new put position and a tight stop above today's high but we won't. Let's way a day or two and see what happens.

Chart:

Picked on     July 30 at $ 44.89 
Change since picked:      + 1.21 <-- stopped out @ 46.10 (+2.6%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00 
Average Daily Volume =      13.5 million  
Listed on  July 30, 2009         


Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 59.52 change: +4.07 stop: 60.26

Shorts got hammered again. The market's unexpected rally sent bears running and WYNN rallied right up to resistance at $60.00 and then poked over it right before the close. WYNN hit our stop loss at $60.26 closing the play. We knew this was an aggressive, high-risk/high-reward trade and I suggested small positions 1/2 or 1/4 your normal size. I would keep WYNN on your watch list. Another opportunity will probably present itself soon.

Chart:

Picked on   August 05 at $ 56.57
Change since picked:      + 3.69<-- stopped out @ 60.26 (+6.5%)
Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       4.7 million  
Listed on August 05, 2009