CALL Play Updates

C.H.Robinson - CHRW - close: 55.48 change: -0.04 stop: 52.75

CHRW didn't see much action today. Shares just sort of drifted sideways. They remain above resistance and what should be support near $55.00. I would still open bullish call positions here. Our target is $59.50. I Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $69.00 target.

Picked on   August 12 at $ 55.35 *triggered       
Change since picked:      + 0.13
Earnings Date           10/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.7 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 55.96 change: +1.13 stop: 49.45

I'm starting to think this market is never going to see a correction. FLR is bouncing from its post-earnings pull back. Shares remain overbought and short-term technicals are still bearish. We want to buy calls on a dip in the $51.00-50.00 zone. If triggered at $51.00 our first target is $54.80. Our second target is $59.00. This could take several weeks.

I suggest readers use the September or October calls.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 51.00
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           08/10/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 142.77 chg: +0.74 stop: 139.95

Better than expected readings for Q2 GDP in France and Germany boosted the euro. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 2.01
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 39.88 change: +1.09 stop: 37.40 *new*

Weakness in the dollar gave commodities a boost and the GDX followed gold higher. I remain cautious here. I am raising our stop loss to $37.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. GDX has already exceeded our first target. Our second target is $44.00.

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 3.39
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 50.70 change: +0.26 stop: varies

IDXX is still drifting sideways. I am not suggesting new positions at this time unless IDXX hits our trigger at $47.50. Currently we have two strategies for IDXX.

Aggressive strategy: Entry point at $51.10. Stop loss at $49.85. Our first target is $54.85. We do not want to open new aggressive positions at this time. I suggested very small positions sizes (about 1/4 of your normal trading size).

Original plan is to buy calls at $47.50 with a stop at $44.95. If triggered at $47.50 our first target is $52.00. Our second target is $54.90. Our time frame is six to eight weeks once triggered.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $77 target.

*Aggressive Strategy*
Entry on    August 05 at $ 51.10 *stop loss @ 49.85 *new*
Change since picked:      - 0.40

*Original Strategy*
Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGERs @ 47.50 
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/24/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       383 thousand 
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Legg Mason - LM - close: 28.25 change: +0.28 stop: 23.99

Trying to read LM can be confusing. Shares produced a bearish double top and then began to breakdown. Yesterday it produced a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Today's gain should confirm the engulfing pattern. LM still has resistance near $29.00 but more aggressive traders may want to consider bullish positions now with a tight stop or maybe a breakout trigger over $29.00. Currently we're still waiting for a dip. Our trigger is $25.55. If triggered our first target is $29.75. Our second target is $33.40. My time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $39 target.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 25.55
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Lorillard Inc. - LO - close: 72.50 change: -0.82 stop: 69.45

LO under performed the market with a 1.1% pull back. We are still waiting for a dip near $70.00 with a trigger to buy calls at $70.50. Our first target is $74.50. Our second target is $77.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92.00 target.

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Polaris - PII - close: 39.31 change: +0.82 stop: 33.85

PII continues to defy gravity. More aggressive traders may want to consider a breakout trigger to buy calls over $40.00. Currently our plan is to buy calls on a dip but I'm raising our trigger from $34.15 to $35.15. I'm raising our stop loss to $33.85. Our first target is $39.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $43.50 target.

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 35.15
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 68.53 change: -0.19 stop: 70.60

Crude oil delivered a bounce but CVX failed to follow. Shares lost 0.2% in spite of the market's strength. I'm still bearish here. Our first target is $64.15. Our second target is $61.50.

Picked on   August 11 at $ 67.94
Change since picked:      + 0.59
Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      10.7 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Genzyme - GENZ - close: 50.44 change: +0.13 stop: 52.55

Technicals are mixed and volume remains light on GENZ. If you only look at the last three or four days the stock looks somewhat bullish. Any wider time frame and GENZ is bearish. Wait for this bounce to start to roll over before initiating new positions. Our first target to take profits is $45.25. Our second target is $41.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $40 target.

Picked on   August 03 at $ 49.90 *triggered         
Change since picked:      + 0.54
Earnings Date           10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.9 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Green Mtn Coffee - GMCR - close: 64.73 chg: -0.11 stop: 72.05

GMCR is still under performing with another decline. Yet volume has been light. This is still an entry point to buy puts.

This is a very aggressive bet that GMCR finally corrects. Just remember that most of the rally over the past several months has been short covering. There is always another chance for a short squeeze. I suggest very small position sizes. We're going to use a very wide stop loss. Our first target to take some money off the table is $60.50. Our second target to exit completely is $55.50.

Picked on   August 11 at $ 65.84
Change since picked:      - 1.11
Earnings Date           11/12/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.8 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Biotech Ishares - IBB - close: 77.15 change: -0.13 stop: 80.75

The bounce in the IBB stalled near $78.20. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Currently our exit target is $75.10. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $74-73 area.

Picked on     July 30 at $ 79.44
Change since picked:      - 2.20
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       892 thousand 
Listed on  July 30, 2009         


Intl.Business Machines - IBM - cls: 119.58 change: +0.29 stop: 120.10

Thus far resistance at the $120.00 level in IBM is holding. However, let's consider for a moment the idea that the market does not correct, at least not yet. If IBM breaks out over $120 it could shoot several points higher. I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $120.25. That means a move to $120.10 stops out our put position and if IBM hits $120.25 we buy calls. The stop loss for the call play will be $117.25, which is under Wednesday's low. More conservative traders could use a stop at $118.49, which is under today's low.

I'm not suggesting new put positions at this time. Our first target to take profits is at $113.75, which is just above the top of the gap from mid July. Our second and final target is $111.25, which is near the bottom of the gap.

Picked on   August 08 at $118.17 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $119.33
Change since picked:      + 1.41
Earnings Date           10/08/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.9 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Intercontintental Exchange - ICE - cls: 91.07 change: -0.08 stop: 95.55 *new*

ICE temporarily dipped under support at $90.00 and hit $89.60. That means the second half of our put play has been triggered at $89.85. The high last Friday was $95.53. I am lowering our stop loss to $95.55.

ICE can be a very volatile stock so we should consider this an aggressive trade. Our target to exit is $83.75. More aggressive traders can aim lower.

Picked on   August 08 at $ 93.60 Buy Half Now   
Change since picked:      - 2.53

Picked on   August 13 at $ 89.85 triggered 2nd half
Change since picked:      + 1.22

Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.1 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Marvel Entertainment - MVL - close: 39.01 change: +0.32 stop: 40.01

MVL spent the session in a tight range hugging the $39.00 level. Currently our plan is to buy puts at $37.90. If triggered our target is $34.10 as the $34.00 level could be support. I'm listing a stop loss at $40.01 but more conservative traders might be able to use a tighter stop at $39.55 or just above $39.00.

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 37.90
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           11/04/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       710 thousand 
Listed on August 10, 2009         


Shanda Interactive - SNDA - close: 46.53 chg: -1.70 stop: 51.25

SNDA ignored strength back home in China and shares broke down from their consolidation. The stock lost 3.5% on above average volume. We need to watch for potential support in the $44.20-44.00 zone and its exponential 200-dma.

SNDA is a volatile stock so readers may want to use smaller position sizes. Shares should see support near $45-44 and again at $40.00. I am targeting a drop into the $41.50-40.00 zone.

Picked on   August 08 at $ 48.10 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $47.83
Change since picked:      - 1.57
Earnings Date           09/01/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 55.78 change: -0.48 stop: n/a

MCD looks ready to move lower. Shares produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern today. We have six trading days left. I am not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.50 or higher.

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      - 2.16
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

J.C.Penney - JCP - close: 33.21 change: +0.22 stop: 31.90

Better than expected earnings out of Wal-Mart (WMT) were not enough to help the retail sector. The Commerce Department said July retail sales came in worse than expected. Shares of JCP dipped to $31.76 before bouncing back into positive territory. Our play was stopped out at $31.90. We had a tight stop because today was our last day. JCP reports earnings tomorrow morning.

Chart:

Picked on   August 03 at $ 31.05 *triggered /gap higher entry
Change since picked:      + 0.85 <-- stopped @ 31.90 (+2.7%)
                               /1st target hit @ 32.75 (+5.4%)
Earnings Date           08/14/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       5.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 168.42 change: +3.11 stop: 167.51

I must have been dreaming to think this market would let AAPL correct. Dreams of buying calls on a dip on a healthy correction will have to wait a little longer. The plan was to use puts and try and capture several points as AAPL corrected and then buy calls. CNBC claims that AAPL was upgraded this morning with the analyst raising the price target to over $200 a share. The stock rallied past its recent resistance near $167.00-167.50 and hit our stop loss closing the play.

Chart:

Picked on   August 11 at $162.83
Change since picked:      + 4.68 <-- stopped out @ 167.51 (+2.8%)
Earnings Date           10/21/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      17.1 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009