CALL Play Updates

C.H.Robinson - CHRW - close: 54.77 change: -0.71 stop: 53.49*new*

We could argue that technically CHRW's breakdown back under resistance at $55.00 is a new sell signal or reversal and that Wednesday's breakout was just a bull trap pattern. It may be true. However, the S&P 500 bounced from its lows on Friday and CHRW followed it higher in the last 30 minutes of trading. Furthermore CHRW has not broken the six-week trend of higher lows.

More conservative traders may want to exit early anyway. I am not suggesting new positions until we see CHRW back over $55.50 again. I am raising our stop loss to $53.49. Our target is $59.50. I Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $69.00 target.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time. If CHRW provides a new entry point I'd use the September calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 12 at $ 55.35 *triggered       
Change since picked:      - 0.58
Earnings Date           10/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.7 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Diamond Offshore - DO - close: 87.63 change: -2.61 stop: 86.49 *new*

DO just erased Thursday's bounce. A bounce in the dollar and a sharp drop in crude oil sparked some selling in the oil service stocks. Fortunately, DO found some short-term support near $86.70 and was bouncing off its lows at the end of the day. The low today happened to be near the 50-dma. I'm inching up our stop loss to $86.49. I would buy calls on this bounce but I would use small position sizes. This remains an aggressive trade. Our first target is $94.00, which is where we want to exit at least half it not all of our position. I'm setting a secondary target at $99.50.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the September calls. My time frame is less than two weeks.

BUY CALL SEP 90.00 DWG-IR open interest= 154 current ask $6.10
BUY CALL SEP 95.00 DWG-IS open interest= 265 current ask $3.40

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 13 at $ 90.24
Change since picked:      - 2.61
Earnings Date           10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.3 million  
Listed on August 13, 2009         


Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 54.03 change: -1.93 stop: 49.45

This last week looks pretty ugly for FLR. The post-earnings sell-off was followed by a two-day bounce and now Friday's sharp 3.4% decline. The $55.00 level of support did not hold. Odds are growing quickly that FLR will test the multi-month trendline of higher lows. We want to buy calls on a dip in the $51.00-50.00 zone. If triggered at $51.00 our first target is $54.80. Our second target is $59.00. This could take several weeks.

Suggested Options:
I suggest readers use the September or October calls. Trigger to open positions at $51.00.

BUY CALL SEP 50.00 FLR-IJ open interest= 516 current ask $5.30
BUY CALL SEP 55.00 FLR-IK open interest=1785 current ask $2.35

BUY CALL OCT 50.00 FLR-JJ open interest=2312 current ask $6.20
BUY CALL OCT 55.00 FLR-JK open interest=3676 current ask $3.40

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 51.00
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           08/10/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Euro Currency ETF - FXE - close: 141.86 chg: -0.91 stop: 139.95

The U.S. dollar managed a bounce today but the trend is still down and the FXE's trend is still up. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our first target is $144.50. Our second target is $148.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $168 target.

Suggested Options:
I'm not suggesting new positions at this time but more aggressive traders may want to consider September or October calls. Keep in mind that the FXE does not normally move very fast.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     June 23 at $140.76
Change since picked:      + 1.10
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       461 thousand    
Listed on  June 23, 2009         


Gold Miner ETF - GDX - close: 39.28 change: -0.67 stop: 37.85 *new*

Gold acts like it wants to go higher but it's struggling. That's putting the brakes on any bounce in the GDX. There is still a bullish trend of higher lows but I remain cautious. We're raising the stop loss to $37.85. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. GDX has already exceeded our first target. Our second target is $44.00.

Suggested Options:
I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July 13 at $ 36.49 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $35.93
Change since picked:      + 2.79
            gap higher exit   /1st target hit @ 39.95 (+9.4%)
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       6.8 million  
Listed on  July 13, 2009         


IDEXX Labs - IDXX - close: 50.43 change: -0.27 stop: varies

The upward momentum in IDXX has stalled and that's why we raised the stop loss on our aggressive trade to $49.85 yesterday. That stop was hit this morning when IDXX broke down under the $50.00 level. We new the higher entry point was aggressive so I suggested very small positions sizes (about 1/4 of your normal trading size). We still have a plan to buy calls on a dip at $47.50.

Original plan is to buy calls at $47.50 with a stop at $44.95. If triggered at $47.50 our first target is $52.00. Our second target is $54.90. Our time frame is six to eight weeks once triggered.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $77 target.

Suggested Options:
If IDXX hits our trigger at $47.50 I'd use the September or October calls.

Annotated Chart:

*Aggressive Strategy*
Entry on    August 05 at $ 51.10 *stop loss @ 49.85 *new*
Change since picked:      - 1.25<-- stopped @ 49.85 (-2.4%)

*Original Strategy*
Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGERs @ 47.50 
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/24/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       383 thousand 
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Legg Mason - LM - close: 27.71 change: -0.54 stop: 24.75 *new*

We've been waiting for LM to dip for while. It looks like it's getting close. I am raising our trigger to buy calls to $26.00 and raising our stop loss to $24.75. If triggered our first target is $29.75. Our second target is $33.40. My time frame is six to eight weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $39 target.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the September calls.

BUY CALL SEP 25.00 JGM-IE open interest=  50 current ask $3.40
BUY CALL SEP 28.00  LM-IV open interest=1428 current ask $1.40
BUY CALL SEP 30.00  LM-IF open interest= 359 current ask .65

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 26.00
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.4 million  
Listed on  July 25, 2009         


Lorillard Inc. - LO - close: 72.38 change: -0.12 stop: 69.45

LO has been churning sideways in the $72.50-75.00 zone the last couple of weeks. We're looking for a dip back toward previous resistance and what should be support at $70.00. Our stop is pretty tight so $70.00 needs to hold. The trigger to buy calls is at $70.50. Our first target is $74.50. Our second target is $77.00. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $92.00 target.

LO had some news today. Management upped their quarterly cash dividend on the stock by 8.7% to $1.00. The dividend is payable September 11th to shareholders on record as of September 1st.

Suggested Options:
If LO hits our trigger I'm suggesting the September or December calls. So far there aren't any October or Novembers yet available.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Mobile Telesys - MBT - close: 43.00 change: -1.85 stop: 41.90

Warning! MBT has produced a bearish reversal today with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Now it still needs confirmation but I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. The sad news is that the gap higher this morning was above our trigger to buy calls at $45.35. So not only is our play open but our entry point is worse than expected. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship right here right now with the reversal pattern today. MBT still has some support near $42.00 I'm going to let it ride.

If there is no follow through lower I would wait for a new relative high over $45.50 before buying calls again.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 14 at $ 45.49 /gap higher entry  
Change since picked:      - 2.49
Earnings Date           08/12/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      1.45 million  
Listed on August 13, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Genzyme - GENZ - close: 50.59 change: +0.15 stop: 52.55

GENZ has been pretty resilient this week with traders buying dips near $49.00. I suspect the stock is going to make another run at the $51.00-52.00 zone soon unless the wider market clearly breaks down. I would wait for a failed rally near $52.00 before considering new bearish positions. Our first target to take profits is $45.25. Our second target is $41.00. The P&F chart is bearish with a $40 target.

FYI: More aggressive traders may want to give GENZ just a little bit more room and raise their stop loss above the $53.00 mark.

Suggested Options:
If GENZ provides us a new entry point we want to use the September or October puts.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 03 at $ 49.90 *triggered         
Change since picked:      + 0.69
Earnings Date           10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       3.9 million  
Listed on August 01, 2009         


Green Mtn Coffee - GMCR - close: 63.37 chg: -1.36 stop: 72.05

Our speculative put play on the highly shorted GMCR has performed reasonably well. Although now it looks like time for a little bounce. GMCR is down five days in a row and shares tagged the 50-dma this afternoon and rebounded. Watch for the bounce to roll over in the $65-67 zone as a new entry point to launch positions.

This is a very aggressive bet that GMCR finally corrects. Just remember that most of the rally over the past several months has been short covering. There is always another chance for a short squeeze. I suggest very small position sizes. We're going to use a very wide stop loss. Our first target to take some money off the table is $60.50. Our second target to exit completely is $55.50.

Suggested Options:
If GMCR provides a new entry point we want to use the September puts.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 11 at $ 65.84
Change since picked:      - 2.47
Earnings Date           11/12/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.8 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009         


Biotech Ishares - IBB - close: 76.49 change: -0.66 stop: 80.75

IBB almost hit our target today. The stock broke down under short-term support at $76.00 and hit $75.50 before bouncing back in the last 30-minutes of trading. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Currently our exit target is $75.10. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $74-73 area.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July 30 at $ 79.44
Change since picked:      - 2.86
Earnings Date           00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       892 thousand 
Listed on  July 30, 2009         


Intl.Business Machines - IBM - cls: 118.57 change: -1.01 stop: 120.10

IBM is still trading sideways. While it remains overbought and due for a pull back shares remain resilient. While I hesitate to do so we can still launch put positions in the $118.00-120.00 zone but be prepared to exit quickly. Right now the plan is to close put positions at $120.10 and buy calls at $120.25. If IBM hits our trigger to buy calls at $120.25 we'll use a stop at $117.25 and plan to take profits at $124.50 and at $129.00.

For the current put trade our first target to take profits is at $113.75, which is just above the top of the gap from mid July. Our second and final target is $111.25, which is near the bottom of the gap.

Suggested Options:
We want to use short-term September or October puts (or calls) depending how IBM trades.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 08 at $118.17 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $119.33
Change since picked:      + 0.40
Earnings Date           10/08/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.9 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Intercontintental Exchange - ICE - cls: 90.49 change: -0.58 stop: 95.55

ICE traded under support at $90.00 for a good portion of the day but there was no follow through to the downside. The short-term trend of lower highs, easily identifiable with the 30-dma, certainly suggests the next move is lower. More conservative traders could probably tighten their stops down toward the $92.50 level. We want to give ICE a little more room since the stock can be so volatility. I would still be tempted to buy puts now but readers may want to wait for a move under today's low of $89.38.

ICE can be a very volatile stock so we should consider this an aggressive trade. Our target to exit is $83.75. More aggressive traders can aim lower.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the September puts.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 08 at $ 93.60 Buy Half Now   
Change since picked:      - 3.11

Picked on   August 13 at $ 89.85 triggered 2nd half
Change since picked:      + 0.64

Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.1 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Marvel Entertainment - MVL - close: 38.73 change: -0.28 stop: 40.01

In spite of the huge bearish reversal, blow-off top in early August shares of MVL are still holding up. The stock has fallen into a $38-39 trading range over the last several days. Currently our plan is to buy puts at $37.90. If triggered our target is $34.10 as the $34.00 level could be support. I'm listing a stop loss at $40.01 but more conservative traders might be able to use a tighter stop at $39.55 or just above $39.00.

Suggested Options:
If triggered we want to use the September or December puts.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 37.90
Change since picked:      + 0.00
Earnings Date           11/04/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       710 thousand 
Listed on August 10, 2009         


Shanda Interactive - SNDA - close: 46.27 chg: -0.26 stop: 51.25

The little oversold bounce in SNDA this morning failed at $47.73. This is good news for the bears and shares look poised to test support in the $45-44 zone soon. I would focus on the $44.20-44.00 area and its exponential 200-dma as possible support. Our target is the $41.50-40.00 zone. Remember, SNDA is a volatile stock and readers may want to use smaller position sizes.

Suggested Options:
I would use the September puts.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 08 at $ 48.10 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $47.83
Change since picked:      - 1.83
Earnings Date           09/01/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.5 million  
Listed on August 08, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

McDonald's - MCD - close: 55.27 change: -0.51 stop: n/a

There has been a lot of talk about big investors and hedge funds and what they bought or sold last quarter with the release of their 13F or 13G filings. I heard that a couple of big investors increased their positions in MCD. Yet the news did not help the stock price. Shares lost 0.9%. We are down to our last five trading days. Considering our remaining time I am lowering our exit target to $2.00. I am not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

I suggested the August $60 calls (MCD-HL) and the August $55 puts (MCD-TK). Our estimated cost is $1.25 (0.70 + 0.55). We want to sell if either option hits $2.00 or higher.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on     July 18 at $ 57.84
Change since picked:      - 2.67
Earnings Date           07/23/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       7.8 million  
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Polaris - PII - close: 38.69 change: -0.62 stop: 33.85

We've been waiting for PII to pull back for a few weeks now. Shares are certainly overbought and due for a correction. I'm removing it from the play list and placing it on my watch list for a dip. We're better off looking for something with a closer entry point. Our plan was to buy calls at $35.15.

Chart:

Picked on     July xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 35.15
Change since picked:      + 0.00                   *Never Opened*
Earnings Date           07/16/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       436 thousand 
Listed on  July 18, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 68.63 change: +0.10 stop: 70.60

I am cutting our put play on CVX early. Oil moved lower on a bounce in the dollar. While oil might keep falling I would expect it to bounce from its trendline of higher lows, which isn't that far away. Today's late session bounce in the OIX oil index doesn't help the bears here anyway.

Chart:

Picked on   August 11 at $ 67.94
Change since picked:      + 0.69 <-- exit early (+1.0%)
Earnings Date           10/29/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =      10.7 million  
Listed on August 11, 2009