If the market continues to slip lower we still have several stocks with triggers to buy the dip.


CALL Play Updates

Alcon Inc. - ACL - close: 141.19 change: +0.84 stop: 132.99

ACL is still showing relative strength. Broken resistance at $140 held as new short-term support but if the S&P 500 continues to sink I would expect ACL to follow it lower. Wait and watch for a bounce near the $136-134 zone before considering new bullish positions. ACL has already hit our first target. Our second target is $148.00.

Suggested Options:
At this time if ACL did provide a new entry point I'd use the November calls. Just keep in mind our plan to exit ahead of earnings in late October.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 10 at $136.75
Change since picked:       + 4.44
                             /1st target hit @ 142.50 (+4.2%)
Earnings Date            10/21/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        299 thousand 
Listed on September 10, 2009         


Allegheny Tech. - ATI - close: 34.42 change: -0.01 stop: 31.45 *new*

The profit taking in ATI hasn't been that bad but I don't think it's over yet. I'm still looking for a dip towards $32.00. Please note our new stop loss at $31.45.

More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit now. You can re-enter on a bounce. It's certainly possible that ATI dips to $30.00 before bouncing and a move that low would stop us out. I'm not suggesting new positions until we see ATI test support. ATI has exceeded our first target. We're currently aiming for $37.00.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 31 at $ 30.25 *triggered         
Change since picked:      + 4.17
                               /1st target hit @ 33.85 (+11.9%)
Earnings Date           10/21/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.7 million  
Listed on August 27, 2009         


Best Buy Inc. - BBY - close: 37.30 change: -0.61 stop: 36.45

Retail stocks did not see much improvement on the better than expected consumer sentiment reading out this morning. Shares of BBY are slipping closer and closer to the long-term trendline of higher lows. Today's close under the simple 50-dma is bearish and more conservative traders may want to consider an early exit here. If the S&P 500 continues to fall odds are very good that BBY will break support and stop us out.

I would wait for a bounce back above $38.25 before launching new call positions. If you really want to see BBY show some strength first then wait for a move over $39.00 instead. Our first target to take profits is at $41.40. Our second target 46.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $54 target.

Suggested Options:
I'm not suggesting new positions at this time but if BBY surprises us and rallies from here we can use the October, November, or December calls. My preference would be the $40 strike.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 21 at $ 38.45
Change since picked:       - 1.15
Earnings Date            12/16/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        8.7 million  
Listed on September 21, 2009         


Caterpillar - CAT - close: 51.20 change: -0.65 stop: 47.49

CAT is still sliding but has not yet slipped to the $50 level. The stock was upgraded to an "out perform" Friday morning. Right now our plan is to buy calls at $50.50. Considering the weakness in the S&P 500 readers may want to wait for a dip closer to the $49.00 level.

If we are triggered at $50.00 our first target is $54.50. Our second target is $59.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with an $85 target.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the October or November calls. Keep in mind that we'll exit ahead of the earnings report around Oct. 20th. My preference is the $55 strike.

BUY CALL OCT 50.00 CAT-JJ open interest= 5496 current ask $2.72
BUY CALL OCT 55.00*CAT-JK open interest=10972 current ask $0.72

BUY CALL NOV 55.00*CAT-KK open interest=11636 current ask $2.13

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 50.50
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         10 million  
Listed on September 19, 2009         


CF Industries - CF - close: 84.29 change: -2.34 stop: 83.65

As expected CF dipped toward the $84.00 level. Shares have closed under their 30-dma, which is bearish. The stock is also down six days in a row so odds of an oversold bounce are growing. If you look at the last four months the $84 level has been prior resistance so it should be new support. I would buy calls on a bounce from here but you might want to wait for the bounce to clear the $86.00 level before jumping in.

Our first target to take profits is at $92.50. Our second target is $98.00. FYI: The P&F chart has a quadruple-top bullish breakout buy signal with a $99 target.

FYI: Agrium (AGU) is trying to buy CF but CF keeps rejecting the offer calling it too late. At the same time CF is trying to buy Terra Industries (TRA) and TRA keeps rejecting the offer calling it too low. Eventually one of these companies is going to give up or they're finally going to make a big enough offer or somebody else might step in and start bidding. There is a risk that someone bids too much and the market could think they overpaid, which might push the stock lower. CF started their bid in January at $2.1 billion, bumped it to $2.2 billion in March, and then raised it to $4 billion in August. TRA has consistently rejected CF's offers.

This M&A dance has been going on for months and it will probably continue for months so I'm not expecting it to have much short-term impact on the stock. However, it's worth noting that CF recently filed a lawsuit to force TRA to hold their annual shareholder meeting. This way CF can try and vote some members onto the board of directors.

M&A UPDATE:
Late Thursday night (Sept. 24th) TRA announced a one-time, special cash dividend to shareholders of $7.50 per share, worth about $750 million. Details and dates of the dividend are not know yet but it's expected to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2009. It's been suggested that TRA is doing this to make themselves look less attractive to CF.

Suggested Options:
If CF bounces from here I would use the November calls. My preference would be the $85s.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 05 at $ 85.93
Change since picked:       - 1.64
Earnings Date            10/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        653 thousand 
Listed on September 05, 2009         


Core Labs - CLB - close: 99.07 change: -1.30 stop: 92.25

We continue to see profit taking in the oil stocks. CLB lost another 1.29%. The long-term trend is still up.

I'm suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $96.00 with a stop loss at $92.25. If triggered our first target is $104.00. Our second target is $109.50.

Suggested Options:
I'm suggesting the November calls but we'll plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report. Warning - I consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade because of the wide spreads in the option bid and ask.

BUY CALL NOV 100 CBP-KT open interest= 1   current ask $5.30

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 96.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        175 thousand 
Listed on September 23, 2009         


Compass Minerals - CMP - close: 59.20 chg: -0.15 stop: 54.75

CMP has been relatively resistant to any profit taking but momentum indicators are suggesting a correction is coming. I would expect a dip toward the $56.50-55.00 zone.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. CMP has already hit our first target at $59.75. Our second and final target is $64.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart has turned bullish with a $69 target.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 03 at $ 55.55
Change since picked:       + 3.65
                               /1st target hit @ 59.75 (+7.5%)
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        415 thousand 
Listed on September 02, 2009         


Consol Energy - CNX - close: 44.29 change: -1.09 stop: 39.45

Before the bell CNX was downgraded from an "overweight" to a "neutral". The stock reacted by gapping open lower at $43.77. That was under our trigger at $44.00 so the play was opened. If you're still looking for an entry point consider waiting for a dip closer to $42.00.

Our first target is $48.50. Our second target is $52.40. We'll plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $73 target.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting October or January calls. October strikes will expire a few days before CNX's earnings report. My preference would be the January $45 strike.

BUY CALL OCT 40.00 SDF-JH open interest=4464 current ask $5.20
BUY CALL OCT 45.00 SDF-JI open interest=2074 current ask $2.05

BUY CALL JAN*45.00 SDF-AI open interest= 303 current ask $5.10

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 25 at $ 43.77 /gap down entry
Change since picked:       + 0.52
Earnings Date            10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.0 million  
Listed on September 19, 2009         


Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 66.11 change: -0.58 stop: 63.95

DHR is seeing a normal pull back. I expect shares to find some support in the $65-64 zone. Wait for the bounce before considering new positions.

Our first target is $69.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $77 target. Currently we only have half a position open to limit our risk given the aggressive entry point.

Suggested Options:
If DHR provides a new entry point I would use the November calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 05 at $ 66.37 (buy 1/2 position)
               /originally listed at $65.76, gap higher entry @ 66.37
Change since picked:       - 0.26
Earnings Date            10/22/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.4 million  
Listed on September 05, 2009         


Diamond Offshore - DO - close: 91.25 change: -0.39 stop: 88.49

The action in DO on Friday looks like another bullish entry point. The stock dipped to $90.00 and bounced just like we expected. Unfortunately I'm growing more concerned about oil. Goldman Sachs upgraded their view on oil demand and this news about Iran should have produced more strength in crude oil on Friday. Yet after a $6.00 plunge in oil futures in just the last two days there was almost no bounce in oil. If oil continues to slide then the oil service stocks will eventually follow it lower.

The trend in DO is still bullish and readers could buy calls on this bounce from $90.00 but consider a tighter stop loss. I'm leaving our stop at $88.49 for now. The plan was to use small position sizes.

We will take some money off the table at $99.90 (1st target). Our second target is $104.50. More aggressive traders can aim for $110. The P&F chart is forecasting a $114 target.

Suggested Options:
I would use the October calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 15 at $ 94.69 *adjusted entry point
Change since picked:       - 3.44
Earnings Date            10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.8 million  
Listed on September 12, 2009         


Flowserve - FLS - close: 98.82 change: +1.31 stop: 88.95

FLS had its price target raised to $114 this morning and shares bounced back toward $100 on the news. We're still waiting for a dip into the $95-92 zone. More cautious traders may want to raise their stops closer to $92.00. Our plan is to buy calls on a dip at $95.00.

If we are triggered our first target is $99.25. Our second target is $107.50. However, we will plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $128 target.

Suggested Options:
We now have November options to choose from. My preference is the November $95s.

BUY CALL OCT 90.00 FLS-JR open interest= 789 current ask $10.00
BUY CALL OCT 95.00 FLS-JS open interest=1191 current ask $ 6.20

BUY CALL NOV*95.00 FLS-KS open interest=  40 current ask $ 9.00
BUY CALL NOV 100.0 FLS-KT open interest= 119 current ask $ 6.40

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 95.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on September 19, 2009         


Fomento Economico Mex. - FMX - close: 36.29 chg: -0.56 stop: 34.99

FMX did not see any follow through on yesterday's rally so we're still waiting for a breakout. Our trigger is at $37.55. If triggered our first target is $40.00. Our second target is $42.50. The Point & Figure chart is much more bullish with a $66 target.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the November calls although Januarys have more open interest. My preference is the November 40 strike (FMX-KH).

BUY CALL NOV 40.00 FMX-KH open interest=210  current ask $0.95

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 37.55
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/26/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.0 million  
Listed on September 24, 2009         


General Dynamic - GD - close: 62.99 change: +0.71 stop: 57.85

Nothing has changed. We're still waiting for a dip to buy calls at $61.00. More conservative traders can wait for a move closer to $60.00.

Our first target is $64.90. Our second target is $69.00. Investors with a longer-term time frame may want to aim a lot higher. GD has produced an inverse H&S pattern that is forecasting an $85

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the November calls if we get triggered. My preference is the November 60s.

BUY CALL NOV 60.00 GD-KL open interest=3627 current ask $4.60

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 61.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.3 million  
Listed on September 09, 2009         


Genesse & Wyoming - GWR - close: 30.53 change: -0.67 stop: 29.75

It's not looking good for the railroad stocks. The DJUSRR index just broke down under the 450 level and its 50-dma. The only think that might save it now is a bounce from support near the 440 level and if that happens it will still look like a potential H&S pattern forming. GWR is also testing support near $30.00 and its 50-dma. I would watch for a bounce from $30.00 back over the $31.00 level before considering new call positions.

We've already taken profits once and our second target is $34.75. We want to use small position sizes to limit our risk.

Suggested Options:
If GWR provides a new entry point we want to use the November calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 15 at $ 28.66 /gap down entry
                               /originally listed at $29.30
Change since picked:      + 1.87
                              /take profits 09/16/09 @ 32.45 (+13.2%)
Earnings Date           11/03/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       230 thousand
Listed on August 15, 2009         


Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 121.08 chg: +0.14 stop: 117.75

IBM has provided us a new entry point with a bounce from support near $120. However, I want to note that if the S&P 500 continues to fall IBM may not be able to hold these levels. More conservative traders may want to wait until we see a good bounce in the S&P 500 first.

Our first target to take profits is at $126.00. Our second target is $129.75. We will plan to exit ahead of IBM's earnings report in mid October.

Suggested Options:
We only have about three weeks before IBM reports earnings. I'm suggesting the October calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 16 at $121.82
Change since picked:       - 0.74
Earnings Date            10/15/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        5.3 million  
Listed on September 16, 2009         


iShares Financials - IYF - close: 51.59 change: -0.47 stop: 49.49

Financial stocks continued to sink but that's not so surprising. The IYF is now testing short-term technical support at its rising 30-dma. I would still buy calls on a bounce from here. If stocks continue to fall then look for a bounce near $50.00. Our first target is $57.00. Our second target is $60.00.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the November calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 15 at $ 52.60 *triggered  
Change since picked:       - 1.01
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =        5.1 million  
Listed on September 01, 2009         


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 28.02 change: -0.42 stop: 27.75

NYX slipped under the $28.00 mark and tested technical support at its 50-dma. We were almost stopped out at $27.75. The low on Friday was $27.83. If the market continues lower on Monday we can plan to be stopped out. More aggressive traders may want to consider adjusting their stop loss under the 100-dma at 27.55. If we don't get stopped out I would buy calls on a bounce over $28.75. Our first target is $31.95. Our second target is $34.50.

Suggested Options:
If NYX provides a new entry point we want to use the November calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 22 at $ 29.82
Change since picked:       - 1.80
Earnings Date            10/30/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.0 million  
Listed on September 22, 2009         


PPG Inds. Inc. - PPG - close: 57.65 change: -0.87 stop: 54.95

I don't see any changes from my previous comments. We're expecting PPG to correct back toward $56.00. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. PPG has already exceeded our first target and we're currently aiming for $63.00. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $90 target.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   August 28 at $ 55.65
Change since picked:      + 2.00
                             /1st target exceeded @ 60.05 (7.9%)
Earnings Date           10/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.6 million  
Listed on August 27, 2009         


SPX Corp. - SPW - close: 61.45 change: -1.75 stop: 57.75

After two weeks of trading sideways SPW is beginning to correct. I suspect the S&P 500 will continue to slide short-term so I'm adjusting our entry point to buy call son SPW from $61.00 to $60.00. If triggered our first target is $64.95. Our second target is $68.75.

Suggested Options:
If triggered we want to use the December options, which have more open interest. My preference is the December 60s (SPW-LL).

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 60.00 *new*
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        570 thousand 
Listed on September 12, 2009         


SOHU.com Inc. - SOHU - close: 66.90 change: -1.21 stop: 63.75

SOHU continues to pull back and Friday's drop confirms the bearish reversal pattern on SOHU. Is this new trend enough to break support at $66.00? We'll soon find out.

Currently our plan is to buy calls on a dip into the $66.00-64.00 zone. I'm upping our stop loss to $63.75.

Our first target is $72.50. Our second target is $77.00.

Suggested Options:
If triggered I prefer the December $70 calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 66.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/26/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        577 thousand 
Listed on September 15, 2009         


Waters Corp. - WAT - close: 54.77 change: -0.32 stop: 49.30

WAT is still contracting after hitting its high on Monday. I don't see any changes from my prior comments on WAT.

Currently the plan is to buy calls on a pull back at $53.50. If triggered our first target is $59.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Suggested Options:
I'm suggesting the November calls and prefer the November $55s.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER 53.50
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        809 thousand 
Listed on September 12, 2009         


Wells Fargo - WFC - close: 28.19 change: -0.26 stop: 27.25

WFC has a few conflicting signals. The last two weeks might be interpreted as a bearish double top. Yet the larger trend is still very bullish. Shares still have a positive pattern of higher lows. I would look for a bounce back over $28.50 to launch new call positions. Our first target is $32.50. Our second target is $34.75 but we may not have time. The plan is to exit ahead of the mid October earnings report.

Suggested Options:
WFC's earnings are due out in about three weeks. I'm suggesting the October calls. My preference is the October 30s.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 22 at $ 29.39
Change since picked:       - 1.20
Earnings Date            10/14/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         42 million  
Listed on September 22, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

*Currently we do not have any put play updates*


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

Cigna Corp. - CI - close: 28.31 change: -0.89 stop: n/a

CI continues to crash. It seems like the market is expecting stronger healthcare reforms to get passed. Shares are down sharply in the last two weeks. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

The options I suggested were the October $35 calls (CI-JG) and the October $25 puts (CI-VE). Our estimated cost was $1.20. We want to sell if either option hits $2.50 or higher. The closer we can open this trade to $30.00 the better.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on September 08 at $ 29.40
Change since picked:       - 1.09
Earnings Date            11/05/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.8 million  
Listed on September 08, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Grainger W.W. - GWW - close: 87.37 change: -1.34 stop: 87.40

A third day of market weakness was enough to push GWW under short-term support at its 50-dma and the $88.00 level. We were stopped out at $87.40.

Chart:

Picked on September 1 at $ 86.00 *triggered  
Change since picked:      + 1.40<-- stopped out @ 87.40 (1.2%)
Earnings Date           10/14/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       635 thousand 
Listed on August 22, 2009         


Mettler Toledo - MTD - close: 87.10 change: -1.07 stop: 87.49

The sell-off in MTD has reached six days in a row and the stock fell past the $88.00 level to hit our stop loss. The play is closed at $87.49.

Chart:

Picked on   August 27 at $ 88.50 *triggered  (1/4 normal size)
Change since picked:      - 1.01<-- stopped @ 87.49 (-1.1%)
                             /1st target hit @ 93.50 (+5.6%)
Earnings Date           11/05/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       234 thousand 
Listed on August 22, 2009