We had two plays hit our triggers and we're adjusting another for a more aggressive entry point.


CALL Play Updates

Alcon Inc. - ACL - close: 138.67 change: -1.46 stop: 133.90 *new*

ACL finally produced the dip we were expecting. Shares fell to $134.36 and then bounced back to almost $139 before the day was out. I was suggesting readers buy calls on a bounce in the $136-134 zone. I'm adjusting the stop loss to $133.90. ACL has already hit our first target. Our second target is $148.00.

Picked on September 10 at $136.75
Change since picked:       + 1.92
                             /1st target hit @ 142.50 (+4.2%)
Earnings Date            10/21/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        299 thousand 
Listed on September 10, 2009         


Allegheny Tech. - ATI - close: 34.99 change: -0.35 stop: 31.45

ATI closed the quarter out with another sideways move. Shares have been consolidating sideways for three weeks now. There is no change from my previous comments.

More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit now. I'm not suggesting new positions until we see ATI test support. ATI has exceeded our first target. We're currently aiming for $37.00.

Picked on   August 31 at $ 30.25 *triggered         
Change since picked:      + 4.74
                               /1st target hit @ 33.85 (+11.9%)
Earnings Date           10/21/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       2.7 million  
Listed on August 27, 2009         


Best Buy Inc. - BBY - close: 37.52 change: -0.34 stop: 36.45

The tug-of-war continues. The short-term trend has a bearish pattern of lower highs. Yet BBY hasn't broken the longer-term trendline of support near $37.00. More cautious trades may want to inch up their stops toward $37.00.

I will repeat my prior comments. Wait for a move over $38.25 or even $39.00 before launching new positions. Our first target to take profits is at $41.40. Our second target 46.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $54 target.

Picked on September 21 at $ 38.45
Change since picked:       - 0.93
Earnings Date            12/16/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        8.7 million  
Listed on September 21, 2009         


Caterpillar - CAT - close: 51.33 change: -0.27 stop: 47.49

Hmm... we just moved the trigger from $50.50 to $50.00 and CAT dips to $50.37 this morning before bouncing. The short-term trend is still down so I'm not too worry about missing an entry point in CAT just yet. More cautious traders may want to wait for a dip near $49.00 instead.

If we are triggered at $50.00 our first target is $54.50. Our second target is $59.00. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with an $85 target.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 50.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         10 million  
Listed on September 19, 2009         


CF Industries - CF - close: 86.23 change: +0.39 stop: 83.65

CF avoid the market's morning drop and rallied toward the 10-dma instead. The rebound reversed at this short-term technical level and we might see CF retest the $84 level soon.

Our first target to take profits is at $92.50. Our second target is $98.00. FYI: The P&F chart has a quadruple-top bullish breakout buy signal with a $99 target.

FYI: Agrium (AGU) is trying to buy CF but CF keeps rejecting the offer calling it too late. At the same time CF is trying to buy Terra Industries (TRA) and TRA keeps rejecting the offer calling it too low. Eventually one of these companies is going to give up or they're finally going to make a big enough offer or somebody else might step in and start bidding. There is a risk that someone bids too much and the market could think they overpaid, which might push the stock lower. CF started their bid in January at $2.1 billion, bumped it to $2.2 billion in March, and then raised it to $4 billion in August. TRA has consistently rejected CF's offers.

This M&A dance has been going on for months and it will probably continue for months so I'm not expecting it to have much short-term impact on the stock. However, it's worth noting that CF recently filed a lawsuit to force TRA to hold their annual shareholder meeting. This way CF can try and vote some members onto the board of directors.

September 24th TRA announced a one-time, special cash dividend to shareholders of $7.50 per share, worth about $750 million. Details and dates of the dividend are not know yet but it's expected to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2009. It's been suggested that TRA is doing this to make themselves look less attractive to CF.

M&A UPDATE 09/28/09 :
CF is getting more aggressive with its bid to acquire TRA. The company announced this morning that it had already purchased 7 percent of TRA's stock on the open market.

Picked on September 05 at $ 85.93
Change since picked:       + 0.30
Earnings Date            10/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        653 thousand 
Listed on September 05, 2009         


Core Labs - CLB - close: 103.09 change: +0.40 stop: 92.25

CLB quickly rallied from its morning dip near $101 but shares stalled near $104 again.

Our plan with CLB is unchanged. We're waiting for a dip to $96.00 to buy calls. If triggered our first target is $104. Our second target is $109.50.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 96.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        175 thousand 
Listed on September 23, 2009         


Compass Minerals - CMP - close: 61.62 chg: +0.10 stop: 55.95

CMP continues to show relative strength and hit another new six-month high.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. CMP has already hit our first target at $59.75. Our second and final target is $64.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart has turned bullish with a $69 target.

Picked on September 03 at $ 55.55
Change since picked:       + 6.07
                               /1st target hit @ 59.75 (+7.5%)
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        415 thousand 
Listed on September 02, 2009         


Consol Energy - CNX - close: 45.11 change: -0.21 stop: 39.45

CNX has been trading sideways the last few days. I still think it might dip toward $42.00. Wait for a bounce there as our next entry point.

Our first target is $48.50. Our second target is $52.40. We'll plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a $73 target.

Picked on September 25 at $ 43.77 /gap down entry
Change since picked:       + 1.34
Earnings Date            10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.0 million  
Listed on September 19, 2009         


Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 67.32 change: -0.06 stop: 63.95

DHR rallied from the $66.00 level again. This may be stronger support than I thought. A new move over $68.00 might signal the beginning of its next leg higher. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $69.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $77 target. Currently we only have half a position open to limit our risk given the aggressive entry point.

Picked on September 05 at $ 66.37 (buy 1/2 position)
               /originally listed at $65.76, gap higher entry @ 66.37
Change since picked:       + 0.95
Earnings Date            10/22/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.4 million  
Listed on September 05, 2009         


Diamond Offshore - DO - close: 95.52 change: -0.80 stop: 88.49

DO bounced sharply from its morning lows but eventually pared its gains and rolled over. I'm not suggesting new positions at these levels. We had plenty of entry opportunities on the dip near $90. The plan was to use small position sizes.

We will take some money off the table at $99.90 (1st target). Our second target is $104.50. More aggressive traders can aim for $110. The P&F chart is forecasting a $114 target.

Picked on September 15 at $ 94.69 *adjusted entry point
Change since picked:       + 0.83
Earnings Date            10/22/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.8 million  
Listed on September 12, 2009         


Dril-Quip, Inc. - DRQ - close: 49.64 change: -0.13 stop: 45.90

DRQ tagged another new high intraday but failed to close over $50.00. I'm expecting another dip back toward $48.00, which can be used as a new entry point. Our first target is $53.00. Our second target is $57.50. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $65.00 target.

Picked on September 28 at $ 48.50
Change since picked:       + 1.14
Earnings Date            11/10/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        282 thousand 
Listed on September 26, 2009         


Flowserve - FLS - close: 98.54 change: +0.69 stop: 87.45

FLS bounced from short-term support near $96.00 again but failed to close over $100. I'm still suggesting readers wait for a dip. Right now our trigger is at $91.00. If triggered at $91.00 our first target is $99.50.

We will plan to exit ahead of the late October earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $128 target.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 91.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on September 19, 2009         


Fomento Economico Mex. - FMX - close: 38.05 chg: +1.27 stop: 34.99

After days of consolidating sideways FMX has finally broken higher. Shares hit our trigger to buy calls at $37.55. Our estimated cost on the November $40 calls (FMX-KH) is about $0.95.

Our first target to take profits is at $40.00. Our second target is $42.50. The Point & Figure chart is much more bullish with a $66 target.

Chart:

Picked on September 30 at $ 37.55
Change since picked:       + 0.50
Earnings Date            10/26/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.0 million  
Listed on September 24, 2009         


General Dynamic - GD - close: 64.60 change: +0.13 stop: 57.85

I'm still expecting a dip in GD. The plan is to buy calls in the $61.00-60.00 zone.

Our first target is $64.90. Our second target is $69.00. Investors with a longer-term time frame may want to aim a lot higher. GD has produced an inverse H&S pattern that is forecasting an $85

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 61.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.3 million  
Listed on September 09, 2009         


Helmerich & Payne - HP - close: 39.53 chg: -0.11 stop: 36.65

Thankfully we didn't have to wait long for HP to pull back and hit our trigger. This morning's decline in the market was enough to push HP down to $38.50. Our trigger to buy calls was $38.50. The play is open and our first target is $43.50. I suggested the November $40 call (HP-KH), which hit $2.05 on the dip. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $52 target.

Chart:

Picked on September 30 at $ 38.50
Change since picked:       + 1.03
Earnings Date            11/19/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on September 29, 2009         


Illumina Inc. - ILMN - close: 42.50 change: +0.40 stop: 37.45

ILMN continues to show relative strength. The bounce has now reached five days in a row without a dip. Currently our plan is to buy calls on a dip at $39.10.

If we are triggered at $39.10 our first target is $42.40. Our second target is $46.75 but that's probably being optimistic given our time frame. ILMN reports earnings in less than four weeks. We'll plan to exit before earnings are announced.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 39.10
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.6 million  
Listed on September 26, 2009         


iShares Financials - IYF - close: 52.67 change: -0.34 stop: 49.49

Financial stocks under performed today. It may have been the potential bankruptcy of CIT that kept traders on the defensive. Wait for another bounce before considering new bullish positions. Our first target is $57.00. Our second target is $60.00.

Picked on September 15 at $ 52.60 *triggered  
Change since picked:       + 0.07
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =        5.1 million  
Listed on September 01, 2009         


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 28.89 change: +0.15 stop: 27.75

I'm still bullish on NYX but traders may want to wait for another bounce from the $28.00 level or a new move over $29.50 before launching new positions. Our first target is $31.95. Our second target is $34.50.

Picked on September 22 at $ 29.82
Change since picked:       - 0.93
Earnings Date            10/30/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.0 million  
Listed on September 22, 2009         


Oil Service Holders - OIH - close: 117.43 chg: -0.46 stop: 112.99

A sharp rally in oil was not enough to save the oil service stocks from a little profit taking. I'd buy calls here or consider waiting for another bounce from the $115 level. Our first target is $124.00.

Please note that this is a slightly aggressive play. The OIH will be strongly influenced by the price of crude oil. Last week oil broke down under a key trendline of support. Yet rising tensions with Iran could keep oil from seeing any significant declines.

Picked on September 28 at $117.40
Change since picked:       + 0.03
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =        6.6 million  
Listed on September 28, 2009         


PPG Inds. Inc. - PPG - close: 58.21 change: -0.53 stop: 54.95

The short-term trend in PPG continues to weaken. I'm still expecting a dip towards $56.00.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. PPG has already exceeded our first target and we're currently aiming for $63.00. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $90 target.

Picked on   August 28 at $ 55.65
Change since picked:      + 2.56
                             /1st target exceeded @ 60.05 (7.9%)
Earnings Date           10/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       1.6 million  
Listed on August 27, 2009         


SPX Corp. - SPW - close: 61.27 change: -0.67 stop: 57.45

SPW is also correcting and the next move looks like it will be lower into the $60-58 zone. Our plan is to buy calls at $60.00. More cautious traders may want to wait for a dip near $58.00 instead. If triggered our first target is $64.95. Our second target is $68.75.

Picked on September xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 60.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        570 thousand 
Listed on September 12, 2009         


SOHU.com Inc. - SOHU - close: 68.78 change: +0.31 stop: 63.75

I'm turning more aggressive on SOHU. Let's open small positions (about 1/2 to 1/4 our normal size) on today's bounce. If shares do end up dipping toward $66.00 we can decide then if we want to double down. I was suggesting the November or December calls. My preference was the December 70s (TKZ-LN).

Our first target is $72.50. Our second target is $77.00.

Chart:

Picked on September 30 at $ 68.78  (small positions 1/2 to 1/4)
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            10/26/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        577 thousand 
Listed on September 15, 2009         


Waters Corp. - WAT - close: 55.86 change: +0.46 stop: 49.30

WAT is bouncing from its recent trading range and looks poised to move higher. I would still consider new positions here but readers may do better to wait for a move over the $56.20 level. Our plan is to use small position sizes (1/2 to 1/4 our normal size).

Our first target is $59.50. The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target. We do not want to hold over the mid October earnings report.

Picked on September 28 at $ 55.43 *new entry
Change since picked:       + 0.43
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        809 thousand 
Listed on September 12, 2009         


Wells Fargo - WFC - close: 28.18 change: -0.17 stop: 27.25

WFC has provided another dip to $28.00. Now all we need is a bounce from here and I would use it as a new entry point to buy calls.

Our first target is $32.50. Our second target is $34.75 but we may not have time. The plan is to exit ahead of the mid October earnings report.

Picked on September 22 at $ 29.39
Change since picked:       - 1.21
Earnings Date            10/14/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         42 million  
Listed on September 22, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

*Currently we do not have any put play updates*


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

Cigna Corp. - CI - close: 28.09 change: -0.51 stop: n/a

CI sank to another new relative low at $27.45 this morning. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

The options I suggested were the October $35 calls (CI-JG) and the October $25 puts (CI-VE). Our estimated cost was $1.20. We want to sell if either option hits $2.50 or higher. The closer we can open this trade to $30.00 the better.

Picked on September 08 at $ 29.40
Change since picked:       - 1.31
Earnings Date            11/05/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.8 million  
Listed on September 08, 2009