Editor's Note:

The market looks fragile here. The S&P 500 has failed to truly breakout over resistance at the 1100 level. The Dow Industrials has failed multiple times at the 10,100 level. The Russell 2000 and the Transports appear to have produced a bearish double top.

We are suggesting an early exit for many of our bullish plays. If you are feeling cautious here I would seriously consider exiting all of your bullish plays. At the very least consider raising your stops or reducing the size of your positions.


CALL Play Updates

AvalonBay - AVB - close: 73.14 change: -0.49 stop: 69.95

AVB is due to report earnings on Wednesday, October 28th after the market's closing bell. That's an updated earnings release date and reduces our remaining time to just three days. AVB doesn't look super weak but it's still stuck under resistance near $75.00.

Given our time frame I am not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders will want to seriously consider an early exit right now (or consider scaling out half now half later). I am moving our target to exit down to $77.00.

Suggested Options:
No new plays at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 08 at $ 72.60
Change since picked:       + 0.54
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.8 million  
Listed on   October 07, 2009         


Canadian Nat. Res. - CNQ - close: 70.81 change: -1.95 stop: 69.90

Warning! CNQ's lack of follow through on Thursday's intraday bounce is bearish. I would seriously consider an early exit right here. The $70.00 level is holding as support for now but if the S&P 500 continues lower on Monday I would expect to be stopped out at $69.90. I am NOT suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target is $79.50.

Suggested Options:
No new positions.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 22 at $ 72.76
Change since picked:       - 1.95
Earnings Date            11/05/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 22, 2009         


Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares - DIG - close: 36.88 change: -1.59 stop 31.95

Wednesday's failed rally pattern combined with Friday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern have definitely cast a bearish pall over the DIG oil ETF. I am expecting a short-term correction. Please note that I am changing our entry point to buy calls. Our new trigger is $34.20. Our new stop loss is $31.95. If triggered at $34.20 our first target is $39.50. Our second target is $43.50.

FYI: The DIG is an ultra-long ETF so it should have twice the volatility as a normal sector ETF.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the December calls. My preference is the December $35 strike.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October xx at $ xx.xx <--  TRIGGER @ 34.20
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =        4.3 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009         


Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 80.70 change: -0.78 stop: 79.85

I would seriously consider an early exit out of ESRX calls. However, the stock has been able to hold above support near $80.00 and the bottom of its recent $80-82 trading range. I am not suggesting new positions and readers may want to sell part of their position anyway just to reduce exposure. Of course our initial plan was to keep positions small to begin with. Our second target is still $84.95. We plan to exit ahead of the October 28th earnings report.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 06 at $ 77.42 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $78.04
Change since picked:       + 3.28
                             /1st target hit @ 82.50 (+6.6%)
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.1 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


Flowserve - FLS - close: 105.15 change: -1.04 stop: 102.45

So much for optimism. FLS failed at $107.40 on Friday morning. The stock's trend is still bullish and FLS looks better than most but I'm still seeing bearish signals develop in the RSI and MACD indicators. Just to be safe I would sell half my position to limit risk. If we get stopped out I'd still watch for support near $100. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $109.75.

We will plan to exit ahead of the October 28th earnings report.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 12 at $102.60
Change since picked:       + 2.55
                           /sell half @ 105.15
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on September 19, 2009         


Gold ETF - GLD - close: 103.49 change: -0.43 stop: 97.40

Gold has not been able to make any real progress even though the dollar has been sinking to new 14-month lows. That's a little concerning but overall the trend is still very bullish for gold and the GLD. Short-term I would look for a dip back toward $100. Readers can use a dip near $100 as a new bullish entry point but I would only buy January 2010 or longer-dated options as the GLD doesn't move very fast. Our first target is $109.90. We are still contemplating a second, longer-term target.

Suggested Options:
Wait for an entry point and use the 2010 January calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       + 1.21
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


Intercontinental Exchange - ICE - close: 104.54 chg: -2.02 stop: 94.90

ICE produced a failed rally under $110 on Wednesday and we're starting to see shares correct. The $100 level should be support.

I am updating our trigger and moving it down to $100.25. We'll use a stop at $94.90. Our first target is $109.75. Our second target is $114.75. More aggressive traders could aim higher but we want to exit ahead of the November 3rd earnings report.

Suggested Options:
I am suggesting the November calls. My preference is the $100 strike.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ $100.25
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            11/03/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.3 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

BIOGEN IDEC - BIIB - close: 43.81 change: -3.42 stop: 48.55 *new*

Target achieved. BIIB fell more than 7% on Friday with the stock hitting $43.58 on huge volume. Our first target to take profits was at $44.50. The reason shares fell so hard was bad news regarding the drug Tysabri, a treatment for multiple sclerosis. BIIB is a partner with Elan (ELN) who developed the drug. The European Medicines Agency has opened an investigation into the safety of Tysabri over concerns it may be linked to a deadly brain infection. Shares of ELN fell 20% intraday on Friday.

I am lowering our stop loss on BIIB down to $48.55. Our second and final target is $40.50. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 03 at $ 48.89
Change since picked:       - 5.08
                               /1st target hit @ 44.50 (-8.9%)
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 03, 2009         


Netease.com - NTES - close: 37.40 change: -0.15 stop: 41.65

NTES didn't move much on Friday. The trend is down but shares still look a little oversold and due for a bounce. The 10-dma and the $40.00 level should offer some overhead resistance.

Our first target is $35.25. Our second target is $33.00, just above the simple 200-dma. We want to exit ahead of the mid November earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $25 target.

Suggested Options:
If NTES provides a new entry point I would use the November puts.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 17 at $ 38.47
Change since picked:       - 1.07
Earnings Date            11/12/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.7 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Apollo Group - APOL - close: 74.03 change: -0.78 stop: 71.90

Considering the market's recent weakness and our remaining time before APOL reports earnings I am suggesting an immediate exit of any bullish positions.

Chart:

Picked on   October 14 at $ 75.25
Change since picked:       - 1.22<-- early exit @ 74.03 (-1.6%)
Earnings Date            10/27/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 13, 2009         


Dril-Quip, Inc. - DRQ - close: 53.56 change: -1.04 stop: 49.45

I am seeing a familiar bearish reversal pattern in shares of DRQ. It's time for us to get out. I would keep DRQ on your watch list for a new entry point but only after its earnings report (Nov. 10th).

Chart:

Picked on September 28 at $ 48.50
Change since picked:       + 5.06 <- exit 53.56 (+10.4%)
                              /1st target hit @ 53.00 (+9.2%)
Earnings Date            11/10/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        282 thousand 
Listed on September 26, 2009         


EOG Resources - EOG - close: 89.16 change: -2.29 stop: 89.15

The action in EOG has definitely taken on a bearish tone. Friday's session failed at its 10-dma and produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Shares hit our stop loss at $89.15 on Friday afternoon closing the play.

Chart:

Picked on   October 07 at $ 85.24 /gap higher entry
                               /originally listed at $84.71
Change since picked:       + 3.91 -stopped @ 89.15 (+4.5%)
                              /1st target hit @ 89.90 (+5.4%)
                             /2nd target hit @ 94.75 (+11.1%)
Earnings Date            11/03/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.9 million  
Listed on   October 07, 2009         


Mobile Telesys - MBT - close: 51.90 change: -1.80 stop: 49.75

MBT hit new 2009 highs over $55.00 last week but shares have been struggling and the stock looks poised to move lower. The $50.00 level should be significant support but at the moment I'm not willing to bet on it holding. More aggressive traders may want to let it ride. I am suggesting early exit now.

Chart:

Picked on   October 12 at $ 50.15
Change since picked:       + 1.75 --exit @ 51.90 (+3.4%)
                            /1st target hit @ 54.50 (+8.6%)
Earnings Date            11/05/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.5 million  
Listed on   October 10, 2009         


Transocean Ltd. - RIG - close: 89.86 change: -2.89 stop: 89.45

We raised the stop loss on RIG Thursday to $89.45. The oil service stocks tend to be more volatile and RIG dipped to $89.05 on Friday afternoon. Our play is closed. RIG could easily find support in the $85-80 zone so keep it on your watch list. We might see a new bullish opportunity soon.

Chart:

Picked on   October 15 at $ 90.94 /gap down entry
                             /originally listed at $91.48
Change since picked:       - 1.49 <-- stopped @ 89.45 (-1.6%)
Earnings Date            11/04/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        4.1 million  
Listed on   October 15, 2009         


Waters Corp. - WAT - close: 56.99 change: -0.31 stop: 55.90

We don't have much time left with WAT reporting earnings on October 27th. I'm suggesting an early exit now. The plan was to use small position sizes (1/2 to 1/4 our normal size) to minimize risk.

Chart:

Picked on September 28 at $ 55.43 *new entry
Change since picked:       + 1.56 <-- early exit @ 56.99 (+2.8%)
Earnings Date            10/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        809 thousand 
Listed on September 12, 2009