Two of our plays broke down under support and hit our stops. I'm updating stops on two others.


CALL Play Updates

AvalonBay - AVB - close: 73.28 change: +0.14 stop: 71.90 *new*

AVB out performed the market with a gain today but shares still sold off from their morning highs. We have two days left. The plan is to exit on Wednesday at the closing bell to avoid earnings. I am raising our stop loss to $71.90 given our time frame. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider an early exit right now. I am moving our target to exit down to $77.00.

Picked on   October 08 at $ 72.60
Change since picked:       + 0.68
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.8 million  
Listed on   October 07, 2009         


Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares - DIG - close: 35.76 change: -1.12 stop 31.95

A rise in the dollar sparked selling in oil and the oil stocks followed. The DIG lost 3%. Our plan is to buy calls on a dip at $34.20. If triggered at $34.20 our first target is $39.50. Our second target is $43.50.

FYI: The DIG is an ultra-long ETF so it should have twice the volatility as a normal sector ETF.

Picked on   October xx at $ xx.xx <--  TRIGGER @ 34.20
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =        4.3 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009         


Flowserve - FLS - close: 104.09 change: -1.06 stop: 102.90 *new*

Time is almost up. FLS reports earnings on Wednesday. I am suggesting we exit this play tomorrow (Tuesday) at the closing bell. I'm upping our stop loss to $102.90. Our first target is $109.75.

Picked on   October 12 at $102.60
Change since picked:       + 1.49
                           /sell half @ 105.15
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on September 19, 2009         


Gold ETF - GLD - close: 101.86 change: -1.63 stop: 97.40

An oversold bounce in the dollar fueled some profit taking in gold. The GLD lost 1.5%. I've been warning readers to expect a dip toward $100 and use it as a new entry point to buy calls. I would only buy January 2010 or longer-dated options as the GLD doesn't move very fast. Our first target is $109.90. We are still contemplating a second, longer-term target.

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       - 0.42
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


Intercontinental Exchange - ICE - close: 103.25 chg: -1.29 stop: 94.90

Shares of ICE are still correcting. We're still waiting for a dip near $100. The plan is to buy calls on a dip at $100.25. Our first target is $109.75. Our second target is $114.75. More aggressive traders could aim higher but we want to exit ahead of the November 3rd earnings report.

Picked on   October xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ $100.25
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            11/03/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.3 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009         


Volatility Index - VIX - close 24.31 change: +2.04 stop: 19.49

Right on cue the VIX rallied higher with a 9.1% gain today. The VIX actually gapped open higher. Thankfully the call option I suggested didn't gap open too much (only 5 cents).

Our first target to take profits is at $27.25. Our second target is $29.25. I consider this an aggressive trade and suggest readers use small positions.

We want to use the December calls. These are European style options and are settled for cash. The December options expire on Wednesday, December 16th, 2009.

Picked on   October 24 at $ 23.06 /gap open entry
                            /originally listed at $22.27
Change since picked:       + 1.25
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =         -- million  
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

BIOGEN IDEC - BIIB - close: 44.13 change: +0.32 stop: 48.55

BIIB is very short-term oversold after the recent decline. Today's oversold bounce isn't a surprise. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. BIIB has already surpassed our first target at $44.50. Our second and final target is $40.50.

Picked on   October 03 at $ 48.89
Change since picked:       - 4.76
                               /1st target hit @ 44.50 (-8.9%)
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 03, 2009         


DST Systems - DST - close: 43.70 change: -0.03 stop: 45.25

Shares of DST really didn't move much today. There wasn't much of a morning rally nor was there much of a sell-off. Overall the trend looks bearish. I think shares will correct toward support near $40.00. Now there is technical support at its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma near $42.50 so don't be surprised to see an initial bounce from this level. Our target to exit is $40.25.

Picked on   October 24 at $ 43.73
Change since picked:       - 0.03
Earnings Date            10/21/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        462 thousand 
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


iShares Transports - IYT - close: 67.79 chg: -0.50 stop: 73.20

The IYT provided us a better entry point if you caught the bounce this morning. The rebound failed and shares reversed under $70.

The plan was to buy half a position now and open the second half if we see a bounce to $70.50. Our first target to take profits is $65.25 as the 100-dma could be technical support. Our second and final target is $62.00.

Picked on   October 24 at $ 68.29
Change since picked:       - 0.50
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        664 thousand 
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


Netease.com - NTES - close: 37.42 change: +0.02 stop: 41.65

Monday turned out to be a relatively quiet session for NTES. Shares traded sideways in a narrow range. I'm not suggesting new positions at these levels.

Our first target is $35.25. Our second target is $33.00, just above the simple 200-dma. We want to exit ahead of the mid November earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $25 target.

Picked on   October 17 at $ 38.47
Change since picked:       - 1.05
Earnings Date            11/12/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.7 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009         


Psychiatric Solutions - PSYS - close: 23.63 change: -1.34 stop: 28.05

PSYS spiked down toward technical support at its 200-dma and bounced. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce back toward $25.00-26.00 but we can use the move as a new entry point to buy puts. Readers should consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Use small positions about 1/2 to 1/4 your normal size.

Normally we want to avoid holding over earnings. This time we will hold over PSYS's earnings report, due out on Tuesday, October 27th after the market's closing bell. Wall Street is looking for a profit of 56 cents a share. However, traders should note that PSYS already warned for the third quarter back on September 30th so there is a chance that the company could beat these lowered estimates.

The most recent data lists short interest at more than 11% of the 55.4 million-share float. That's above average short interest and does raise the risk of a short squeeze, which is another reason we want to keep our positions small.

Our first target to take profits is at $22.55. Our second target is $20.25.

Picked on   October 24 at $ 24.97
Change since picked:       - 1.34
Earnings Date            10/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        662 thousand 
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Canadian Nat. Res. - CNQ - close: 69.02 change: -1.79 stop: 69.90

CNQ broke down under support near $70.00 and its 30-dma. Shares hit our stop loss at $69.90 closing the play.

Chart:

Picked on   October 22 at $ 72.76
Change since picked:       - 2.86 <-- stopped @ 69.90 (-3.9%)
Earnings Date            11/05/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 22, 2009         


Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 78.88 change: -1.82 stop: 79.85

The market's midday sell-off pulled ESRX under support at $80.00. Shares hit our stop at $79.85 closing the play.

Chart:

Picked on   October 06 at $ 77.42 /gap down entry
                              /originally listed at $78.04
Change since picked:       + 2.43<-- stopped @ 79.85 (+3.1%)
                             /1st target hit @ 82.50 (+6.6%)
Earnings Date            10/28/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.1 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009