CALL Play Updates

Gold ETF - GLD - close: 102.53 change: -0.15 stop: 97.40

Gold wasn't hurt quite so much by the dollar's rebound on Friday probably since many investors see gold as a safety play with stocks falling. Unfortunately if the dollar does continue to climb gold will probably see more profit taking as well. I've been suggesting readers wait for a dip or a bounce near round-number support at $100.00. That plan still works.

If we do see a dip near $100.00 I would only buy January 2010 or longer-dated options as the GLD doesn't move very fast. Our first target is $109.90. We are still contemplating a second, longer-term target.

Suggested Options:
If GLD provides a new entry point I would use the January 2010 calls.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       + 0.25
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


UltraShort Treasury ETF - TBT - close: 47.02 change: +0.99 stop: 43.90

The Federal Reserve has ended its program of buying bonds in an effort to keep a lid on interest rates. Now that the $300 billion program is ended it is largely expected that bond yields will tick higher. It may not be immediate. If the stock market starts sinking bonds could see more buying pressure as investors move money toward the perceived safety of bonds.

I am still bullish on the TBT. This ultra-short ETF hit $45.48 on Friday. It was our plan to buy the dip at $45.50 with another half-sized position. If you're still looking for an entry point I'd wait for a bounce from here.

Our first target is $54.50. Our second target is $58.50. Our time frame is several weeks (possibly year end).

Note: This same trade in reverse is puts on the TLT. The TLT will go down as yields rise.

Suggested Options:
I suggested the January 2010 calls. My preference was the $50 strike (TBT-AX).

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 26 at $ 47.89 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:       - 2.23

2nd entry on   October 30 at $ 45.50 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:          + 0.16

Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        6.0 million  
Listed on   October 26, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

BIOGEN IDEC - BIIB - close: 42.13 change: -0.95 stop: 47.25 *new*

Both the BTK biotech index and BIIB are both very short-term oversold. Shares lost 2.2% and set new 2009 closing lows on Friday. I am lowering our stop loss to $47.25. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our second and final target to exit is $40.50.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 03 at $ 48.89
Change since picked:       - 6.76
                               /1st target hit @ 44.50 (-8.9%)
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 03, 2009         


Bank of Montreal - BMO - close: 46.37 change: -1.72 stop: 51.25

Financial stocks were significant under performers on Friday. BMO lost 3.5% and closed under technical support at its 100-dma. If you open positions now I would use small positions. A better entry point would be a failed rally near the 50-dma around $49.00. Our first target is $42.75. Our second target is $40.50.

Suggested Options:
I'm suggesting the December puts.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 27 at $ 47.37
Change since picked:       - 1.00
Earnings Date            11/24/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        539 thousand 
Listed on   October 27, 2009         


DST Systems - DST - close: 41.71 change: -0.99 stop: 45.25

DST broke support at its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma on Friday. Yet it closed exactly at its early October low of $41.71. Readers can expect a bounce from here but the $44-45 zone should remain overhead resistance. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target to exit is $40.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim a little lower.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 24 at $ 43.73
Change since picked:       - 2.02
Earnings Date            10/21/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        462 thousand 
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


iShares Transports - IYT - close: 64.71 chg: -1.60 stop: 70.60

The transports have been very weak. Now the sector is oversold and nearing another level of support. I would expect to see an oversold bounce sooner rather than later. I would expect any bounce to roll over in the $68-70 zone.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. IYT hit our first target on Wednesday. Our second target is $62.00.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 24 at $ 68.29
Change since picked:       - 3.58
                              /1st target hit @ 65.25 (-4.4%)
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        664 thousand 
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


Life Tech. - LIFE - close: 47.17 change: -1.51 stop: 50.10

I still think LIFE is forming a top under resistance at $50.00. I would use Friday's decline as a new entry point to buy puts. This is an aggressive trade. I would keep positions small.

The $45 and $44 levels remain support but our target is $41.00.

Suggested Options:
I'm suggesting the November puts. My preference is the $45 strike.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 28 at $ 45.83 /gap down entry point 10/29/09
                              /originally listed at $46.61
Change since picked:       + 1.34
Earnings Date            10/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.1 million  
Listed on   October 28, 2009         


Netease.com - NTES - close: 38.62 change: +0.13 stop: 40.15

I'm not ready to abandon our bearish play in NTES just yet but I'm not suggesting new positions either. More conservative traders might want to consider an early exit to avoid or limit any losses.

Our first target is $35.25. Our second target is $33.00, just above the exponential 200-dma. We want to exit ahead of the mid November earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish with a $25 target.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 17 at $ 38.47
Change since picked:       + 0.15
Earnings Date            11/12/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.7 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009         


Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 58.73 change: -2.63 stop: 66.55 *new*

Target achieved. RIMM fell to $58.42 intraday. Our first target to take profits was at $58.55. The close under the $60.00 level is very bearish but the top of RIMM's gap from April 2009 could act as support.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. A failed rally in the $64-65 zone might be our next entry point. I'm lowering our stop loss to $66.55. Our second and final target is $53.00.

Suggested Options:
No new positions at this time.

Annotated Chart:

Picked on   October 28 at $ 62.93 /gap open entry    
Change since picked:       - 4.20
                               /1st target hit @ 58.55 (-6.9%)
Earnings Date            12/17/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       17.9 million  
Listed on   October 26, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares - DIG - close: 33.02 change: -2.64 stop 31.95

If you step back and look at the oil sector (and oil) the larger trend is still up. Yet I'm concerned about this strength in the dollar. If the dollar continues to rise oil should see more profit taking and that will drag oil stocks lower.

I'm suggesting an early exit out of our DIG play. Let's cut our losses early.

Chart:

Picked on   October 28 at $ 34.20
Change since picked:       - 1.18 <-- early exit @ 33.02 (-3.4%)
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =        4.3 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009         


Potash Corp. - POT - close: 92.78 change: -4.04 stop: 93.40

Our aggressive trade in POT did not pan out. Shares immediately reversed with the market's weakness. The stock broke down under Wednesday's low and several key moving averages. Our stop was hit at $93.40. The plan was to use very small positions to limit risk. The options gapped open lower, adjusting our entry point.

Chart:

Picked on   October 29 at $ 96.82 (1/4 pos)
Change since picked:       - 3.42 <-- stopped @ 93.40 (-3.5%)
Earnings Date            01/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        7.4 million  
Listed on   October 29, 2009         


Schlumberger - SLB - close: 62.20 change: -2.60 stop: 61.95

Friday saw a sharp reversal higher in the dollar and a reversal lower in oil. This pushed oil stocks down hard. SLB erased Thursday's gains and hit our stop at $61.95 closing the play. Our plan was to use small positions to keep risk limited on this aggressive trade. The options gapped down at the open affecting our entry point.

Chart:

Picked on   October 29 at $ 64.80 (small positions)
Change since picked:       - 2.85 <-- stopped @ 61.95 (-4.3%)
Earnings Date            01/22/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       10.3 million  
Listed on   October 29, 2009         


Volatility Index - VIX - close 30.69 change: +5.93 stop: 21.90

The sudden reversal lower in stocks on Friday sent a shock of fear through the market. The volatility index exploded higher with a 24% gain. The VIX pushed past the 30.00 region and hit our second and final target at $29.25 closing our bullish play.

Chart:

Picked on   October 24 at $ 23.06 /gap open entry
                            /originally listed at $22.27
Change since picked:       + 6.19 <-2nd target hit @ 29.25 (+26.8%)
                            / 1st target hit @ 27.25 (+18.1%)
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =         -- million  
Listed on   October 24, 2009