CALL Play Updates

Gold ETF - GLD - close: 106.46 change: +2.51 stop: 99.75 *new*

News that India had purchased about 200 metric tons of gold in the last month sent gold prices soaring. Back in September the IMF announced it would sell 403 tons of gold to raise cash. No one expected India to buy half of it. The idea of stronger demand from various nations trying to diversify against the U.S. dollar pushed gold up more than $30. Gold futures hit a new all-time high at more than $1,085 an ounce.

This pushed the GLD to a new high today. I am raising our stop loss to $99.75. If you have November calls I would plan on exiting near $110. If you have the January calls consider selling half at $110. I'm setting a secondary target at $119.00 but my timeframe is several more weeks.

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       + 4.18
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


UltraShort Treasury ETF - TBT - close: 46.98 change: +0.98 stop: 43.90

Bond yields were on the rise and the TBT gained 2.1%. I am still suggesting that readers wait for a move over $47.50 before initiating new positions.

Our first target is $54.50. Our second target is $58.50. Our time frame is several weeks (possibly year end).

Note: This same trade in reverse is puts on the TLT. The TLT will go down as yields rise.

Picked on   October 26 at $ 47.89 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:       - 0.91

2nd entry on   October 30 at $ 45.50 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:          + 1.48

Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        6.0 million  
Listed on   October 26, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

BIOGEN IDEC - BIIB - close: 43.25 change: +0.66 stop: 47.25

The BTK biotech index rallied sharply for the second day in a row. This time BIIB participated and gained 1.5%. The stock is oversold and due for a bounce. Look for resistance near $45.00 and again near $46.50. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our second and final target to exit is $40.50.

Picked on   October 03 at $ 48.89
Change since picked:       - 5.64
                               /1st target hit @ 44.50 (-8.9%)
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 03, 2009         


Bank of Montreal - BMO - close: 47.53 change: +1.01 stop: 51.25

Financials were initially weak this morning. Negative news from UBS and RBS in Europe sent the banks lower. Yet BMO managed to rebound. Today's session is technically a bullish reversal. Keep an eye on the $49.00 and $50.00 levels as overhead resistance. A failed rally near these levels can be used as a new entry point to buy puts. Our first target is $42.75. Our second target is $40.50.

Picked on   October 27 at $ 47.37
Change since picked:       + 0.16
Earnings Date            11/24/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        539 thousand 
Listed on   October 27, 2009         


UltraDow30 - DDM - close: 38.32 change: -0.12 stop: 41.26

This is the second day in a row that the DDM has been churning sideways near $38 and its 50-dma. I would still consider new positions here but readers may want to wait for a bounce or failed rally near $40.00 to buy puts. I'm suggesting readers use small positions to limit risk.

Our first target is $35.25. The 100-dma near $35.00 could be technical support. I am considering a second target at $32.50 but for now we'll exit 100% at $35.25.

Picked on   October 31 at $ 37.82 (1/2 position size)
Change since picked:       + 0.50
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        3.2 million  
Listed on   October 31, 2009         


Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - close: 247.99 change: +1.61 stop: 261.00

ISRG is still drifting sideways near its 50-dma. I would look for a new lower high near $255 or a new relative low under $240 before opening new position at this time.

Remember, this is an aggressive trade. ISRG can be very volatile and options aren't cheap. I would use very small positions about 25% your normal trade size. Our first target is $226.00. Our second target is $202.00.

Picked on   October 31 at $246.35
Change since picked:       + 1.64
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        939 thousand 
Listed on   October 31, 2009         


Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - close: 57.07 change: +0.85 stop: 62.55

The IWM is bouncing just like I expected. Today's session has produced a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. I don't expect this rebound to make it past the $60.00 level. Nimble traders could try trading the bounce. Our plan is to buy puts when the IWM hits $59.00. If triggered our first target is $55.50. Our second target is $52.00 (or the 200-dma).

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 59.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =       54.5 million  
Listed on  November 02, 2009         


iShares Transports - IYT - close: 67.71 chg: +3.45 stop: 70.60

A 27.5% rally in shares of railroad stock BNI on the Berkshire news lifted the railroad industry. This in turn sent the transports sharply higher. The IYT gapped open at $67.04 and closed with a 5.3% gain. I might consider new bearish positions on a failed rally near $70.00. IYT hit our first target last Wednesday. Our second target is $62.00.

Picked on   October 24 at $ 68.29
Change since picked:       - 0.58
                              /1st target hit @ 65.25 (-4.4%)
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        664 thousand 
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


Life Tech. - LIFE - close: 48.10 change: +0.52 stop: 50.10

LIFE is still trying to bounce but shares are essentially churning sideways. Readers might want to consider waiting for a close under $46.50 before launching new positions.

The $45 and $44 levels remain support but our target is $41.00.

Picked on   October 28 at $ 45.83 /gap down entry point 10/29/09
                              /originally listed at $46.61
Change since picked:       + 2.27
Earnings Date            10/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.1 million  
Listed on   October 28, 2009         


Precision CastParts - PCP - close: 96.05 change: +0.42 stop: 100.55

PCP may have formed a short-term bullish reversal today. I would expect a bounce toward $100. A failed rally near $100 can be used as a new entry point.

I'm suggesting small positions about 50% your normal trade size. Our only target is $90.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower but I'm concerned about the trendline off the March lows, which could be strong support.

Picked on   October 31 at $ 95.53
Change since picked:       + 0.52
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.3 million  
Listed on   October 31, 2009         


Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 59.61 change: +3.87 stop: 65.05

Hmmm... looks like we should have followed my own suggestion and exited on yesterday's decline. The stock rallied sharply with a +6.9% oversold bounce today. Shares stalled near $60, which coincidentally is very close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its October-November decline. I would expect RIMM to roll over here or in the $62-64 zone.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on   October 28 at $ 62.93 /gap open entry    
Change since picked:       - 3.32
                               /1st target hit @ 58.55 (-6.9%)
Earnings Date            12/17/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       17.9 million  
Listed on   October 26, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

DST Systems - DST - close: 42.31 change: +0.51 stop: 45.25

More aggressive traders may want to stay with DST but I'm giving up early and suggesting an exit now. The action over the last three days looks like a new bullish reversal. Let's get out now.

Chart:

Picked on   October 24 at $ 43.73
Change since picked:       - 1.42 <-- early exit @ 42.31 (-3.2%)
Earnings Date            10/21/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        462 thousand 
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


Netease.com - NTES - close: 38.15 change: +0.46 stop: 40.15

I'm very surprised that NTES hasn't shown more weakness given the legal battle of its attempt to launch Activision's World of Warcraft in parts of China.

I cautioned readers last night that if NTES rises over $38.00 we'd close this play early. Sure enough a late afternoon rally pushed NTES over $38.00.

Chart:

Picked on   October 17 at $ 38.47
Change since picked:       - 0.32 <-- exit early @ 38.15 (-0.8%)
Earnings Date            11/12/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.7 million  
Listed on   October 17, 2009