The oversold bounce in the market is fading fast.


CALL Play Updates

Gold ETF - GLD - close: 107.10 change: +0.64 stop: 99.75

The rally in gold continues and gold futures hit a new all time high trading over $1,095 an ounce. Gold, like stock, pulled back from its intraday highs. The GLD only hit $107.68 at its best levels. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

We want to take profits at $109.90. If you have the November calls you will want to exit completely. If you own the January calls I'd sell part of your position. Our second target is $119.00.

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       + 4.82
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


Parker Hannifin - PH - close: 54.53 change: -0.72 stop: 52.39

Our new call play in PH is not off to a strong start. Given the lack of follow through on yesterday's rally readers may want to wait for another bounce from the $53.00 region and its 50-dma before launching new positions.

Our first target is $58.50. We will cautiously set a second target at $62.00 but the $60.00 level could prove to be strong resistance. I would use small positions. The rest of this week could be very volatile due to economic data.

Picked on  November 03 at $ 55.25
Change since picked:       - 0.72
Earnings Date            01/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.6 million  
Listed on  November 03, 2009         


UltraShort Treasury ETF - TBT - close: 47.72 change: +0.74 stop: 43.90

The TBT managed to hit a new relative high over the $48.00 level this afternoon. It's now facing technical resistance at the 200-dma near $48.50. It's worth noting that volume was a little bit above average on today's gain.

Our first target is $54.50. Our second target is $58.50. Our time frame is several weeks (possibly year end).

Picked on   October 26 at $ 47.89 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:       - 0.17

2nd entry on   October 30 at $ 45.50 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:          + 2.22

Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        6.0 million  
Listed on   October 26, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

BIOGEN IDEC - BIIB - close: 42.80 change: -0.45 stop: 47.25

The oversold bounce in BIIB has been anemic. The stock looks like it could roll over again soon. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. BIIB has already hit our first target. Our second and final target to exit is $40.50.

Picked on   October 03 at $ 48.89
Change since picked:       - 6.09
                               /1st target hit @ 44.50 (-8.9%)
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 03, 2009         


Bank of Montreal - BMO - close: 47.05 change: +0.18 stop: 51.25

The financials were some of the worst performers today with the BKX and BIX banking indices down 2.1% and 2.7%, respectively. Shares of BMO appear to have reversed under the 10-dma. I would prefer to launch new put positions on a failed rally near the 50-dma but traders might want to consider opening small positions here. Our first target is $42.75. Our second target is $40.50.

Picked on   October 27 at $ 47.37
Change since picked:       - 0.32
Earnings Date            11/24/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        539 thousand 
Listed on   October 27, 2009         


UltraDow30 - DDM - close: 38.64 change: +0.32 stop: 41.26

I've been suggesting readers look for short-term resistance near $40.00. The DDM hit $39.60 this afternoon and reversed. I would consider new positions here but traders might want to tighten their stops. I'm suggesting readers use small positions to limit risk.

Our first target is $35.25. The 100-dma near $35.00 could be technical support. I would consider a second target at $32.50 but for now we'll exit completely at $35.25. The 100-dma and exponential 200-dma could offer some support.

Picked on   October 31 at $ 37.82 (1/2 position size)
Change since picked:       + 0.82
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        3.2 million  
Listed on   October 31, 2009         


Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - close: 251.32 change: +3.33 stop: 261.00

This could be a new entry point with the late day pull back from its highs but I'd rather see some confirmation first. Wait for follow through on the afternoon reversal. More cautious traders could wait for a drop under $240 to open positions (just consider a tighter stop loss).

Remember, this is an aggressive trade. ISRG can be very volatile and options aren't cheap. I would use very small positions about 25% your normal trade size. Our first target is $226.00. Our second target is $202.00.

Picked on   October 31 at $246.35
Change since picked:       + 4.97
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        939 thousand 
Listed on   October 31, 2009         


Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - close: 56.25 change: -0.82 stop: 62.55

It looks like the IWM is rolling over a lot sooner than expected. I really thought the Monday-Tuesday action this week in the Russell was forecasting a bigger bounce. I'm not ready to give up yet. The plan is unchanged. Wait for a rally toward $60.00 and use a trigger at $59.00 to buy puts. An alternative entry point would be to look for a drop under support near $55.00 and its exponential 200-dma. If triggered at $59 our first target is $55.50. Our second target is $52.00 or the 200-dma, whichever the IWM hits first.

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 59.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =       54.5 million  
Listed on  November 02, 2009         


iShares Transports - IYT - close: 66.68 chg: -1.03 stop: 70.60

There was no real follow through on yesterday's bounce in the transports. The IYT spiked to $68.43 at the open and quickly faded lower. This could be a new entry point to buy puts. IYT has already hit our first target. Our second and final target is $62.00.

Picked on   October 24 at $ 68.29
Change since picked:       - 1.61
                              /1st target hit @ 65.25 (-4.4%)
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        664 thousand 
Listed on   October 24, 2009         


Life Tech. - LIFE - close: 48.20 change: +0.10 stop: 50.10

The tug of war between the bulls and the bears in LIFE continues. If you look at the weekly chart it's easy to see that the $50 region is resistance. Upward momentum is waning. Yet readers may want to wait for another clearly defined failed rally near $50 or a close under $46.50 to open positions. At this point I would use small positions if opening new plays. The $45.00 level and the $44.00 level are both short-term support. Another level of support to watch is the rising 100-dma. Our target is $41.00.

Picked on   October 28 at $ 45.83 /gap down entry point 10/29/09
                              /originally listed at $46.61
Change since picked:       + 2.37
Earnings Date            10/27/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.1 million  
Listed on   October 28, 2009         


Precision CastParts - PCP - close: 96.12 change: +0.07 stop: 100.55

The bounce in PCP failed near $98 and its 10-dma and 50-dma. I was hoping for a failed rally near $100 but this may be it and readers could use it as a new bearish entry point to buy puts.

I'm suggesting small positions about 50% your normal trade size. Our only target is $90.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower but I'm concerned about the trendline off the March lows, which could be strong support.

Picked on   October 31 at $ 95.53
Change since picked:       + 0.59
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.3 million  
Listed on   October 31, 2009         


Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 57.61 change: -2.00 stop: 62.65 *new*

Good news! The oversold bounce in RIMM is already fading. Shares reversed near $60 and its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its recent decline. I am lowering our stop loss to $62.65. The stock has already hit our first target. We're currently aiming for $53.00.

Picked on   October 28 at $ 62.93 /gap open entry    
Change since picked:       - 5.32
                               /1st target hit @ 58.55 (-6.9%)
Earnings Date            12/17/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       17.9 million  
Listed on   October 26, 2009