CALL Play Updates

Arch Cap Group - ACGL - close: 70.20 change: +0.71 stop: 66.90

The rally resumed on Wednesday and ACGL closed above the $70.00 level, which is a good sign for the bulls. There is potential resistance near $71.00. Our target is the $74.00 level and our time frame is several weeks.

Picked on  November 07 at $ 68.81
Change since picked:       + 1.39
Earnings Date            10/26/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        444 thousand 
Listed on  November 07, 2009         


Canadian Nat. Res. - CNQ - close: 67.64 change: +0.14 stop: $61.95

CNQ spiked higher this morning but couldn't hold its gains and closed near its low for the session. I'm still bullish on CNQ but readers might want to wait for another dip closer to $66.00 before initiating new positions. Our upside target is $74.00.

Picked on  November 09 at $ 67.74 *gap open higher entry
                          /original trigger was $66.05
Change since picked:       - 0.10
Earnings Date            03/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on  November 07, 2009         


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 78.51 change: +0.17 stop: 76.75

Our new bullish play on CVX was opened this morning. Shares gapped open higher at $78.87 and we had a trigger to buy calls at $78.75. Traders bought the dip near $78.00 midday. I would still initiate new positions right here. Our first target is $84.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for oil to close above its October highs (watch the USO) before launching bullish positions in the oil sector.

Chart:

Picked on  November 11 at $ 78.87 /gap higher entry point
Change since picked:       - 0.36
Earnings Date            01/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       10.6 million  
Listed on  November 10, 2009         


Deere & Co - DE - close: 48.01 change: -0.34 stop: 46.85

There is no change from my Monday night comments. We're waiting for a bullish breakout over major resistance at $50.00. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $50.25. If triggered our first target is $54.90. Our second target is $59.00. Keep in mind that we'll plan to exit ahead of DE's earnings report later in the month.

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 50.25
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            11/25/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        6.2 million  
Listed on  November 09, 2009         


Essex Property - ESS - close: 81.94 change: +1.55 stop: 76.40

ESS displayed some relative strength with a 1.9% gain on Wednesday. Our first target is $86.00. Our second target is $92.50.

Picked on  November 10 at $ 80.65
Change since picked:       + 1.29
Earnings Date            02/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        500 thousand 
Listed on  November 09, 2009         


Gold ETF - GLD - close: 109.60 change: +1.21 stop: 99.75

Target achieved. The U.S. dollar sank to new 15-month lows and that pushed gold futures to new all-time highs near $1,115.00 an ounce. The GLD gold ETF hit $109.71. Our first target to take profits was hit at $109.50. I suggested that traders with November calls exit completely at this level since November options expire next week. Holders of January calls will want to take some money off the table. Our second, longer-term target is still $119.00 but it's not going to be straight. Expect a bumpy ride higher. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Chart:

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       + 7.32
                               /1st target hit @ 109.50 (+7.0%)
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


Parker Hannifin - PH - close: 56.11 change: -1.04 stop: 52.90

The relative weakness in PH today may be a warning sign. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $58.50. We will cautiously set a second target at $62.00 but the $60.00 level could prove to be strong resistance. I would use small positions.

Picked on  November 03 at $ 55.25
Change since picked:       + 0.86
Earnings Date            01/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.6 million  
Listed on  November 03, 2009         


UltraShort Treasury ETF - TBT - close: 47.30 change: -0.63 stop: 44.90

We're not seeing much follow through higher in TBT. If you're looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a dip or bounce near $46.00.

Our first target is $54.50. Our second target is $58.50. Our time frame is several weeks (possibly year end).

Picked on   October 26 at $ 47.89 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:       - 0.59

2nd entry on   October 30 at $ 45.50 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:          + 1.90

Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        6.0 million  
Listed on   October 26, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

BIOGEN IDEC - BIIB - close: 46.43 change: +0.92 stop: 47.05 *new*

BIIB displayed relative strength with a 2% gain. The stock has rallied to short-term resistance near $46.50. This level has held for a few days now. I am lowering our stop loss to $47.05. More conservative traders may want to lower their stop closer to $46.50 or consider an early exit right now. If the S&P 500 can hit another new high tomorrow BIIB has a decent chance of breaking higher and stopping us out.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. BIIB has already hit our first target. Our second and final target to exit is $40.50.

Picked on   October 03 at $ 48.89
Change since picked:       - 2.46
                               /1st target hit @ 44.50 (-8.9%)
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 03, 2009         


Bank of Montreal - BMO - close: 49.17 change: +0.05 stop: 50.15

Banks were strong performers today but this time BMO under performed. The stock rallied toward resistance near $50.00 and reversed. This could be a new entry point for bearish positions but with the market's trajectory higher I'm not suggesting new positions just yet. Our first target is $42.75. Our second target is $40.50.

Picked on   October 27 at $ 47.37
Change since picked:       + 1.80
Earnings Date            11/24/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        539 thousand 
Listed on   October 27, 2009         


Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - close: 59.26 change: +0.41 stop: 62.55

The small caps continue to under perform larger caps and the Russell 2000 is still struggling with resistance near 600 and its 50-dma. You can see it in the IWM, which is nearing resistance near $60.00 and its 50-dma. I would still consider small bearish positions here. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new decline under $58.00 first.

More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss down closer to $60.00. Our first target is $55.50. Our second target is $52.00 or the 200-dma, whichever the IWM hits first.

Picked on  November 09 at $ 59.00
Change since picked:       + 0.26
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =       54.5 million  
Listed on  November 02, 2009         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Whirlpool - WHR - close: 74.43 change: +0.53 stop: 74.10

The market's strength has pushed WHR above short-term resistance at $74.00. I'm dropping the stock as a bearish candidate. Shares never hit our trigger to buy puts at $69.75.

Chart:

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 69.75
Change since picked:       + 0.00             *never opened*
Earnings Date            02/09/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.7 million  
Listed on  November 07, 2009