CALL Play Updates

Arch Cap Group - ACGL - close: 71.01 change: +0.11 stop: 67.95 *new*

It's not very convincing but ACGL did manage to rise above and close over resistance at the $71.00 level. The 50-dma has risen over $68.00 so I'm raising our stop loss to $67.95. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $74.00 level.

Picked on  November 07 at $ 68.81
Change since picked:       + 2.20
Earnings Date            10/26/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        444 thousand 
Listed on  November 07, 2009         


Caterpillar - CAT - close: 59.41 change: -0.47 stop: 57.75

CAT continues to bounce along the $59.00 level. Lack of follow through on yesterday's intraday bounce makes me a little more cautious here. I'd look for a new rise over $61.00 to launch new positions (or maybe a stronger bounce from $58.00, which is stronger support than $59.00). Our first target to take profits is at $64.00. Our second target is $68.00.

Picked on  November 16 at $ 60.40
Change since picked:       - 0.99
Earnings Date            01/26/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       11.3 million  
Listed on  November 16, 2009         


Canadian Nat. Res. - CNQ - close: 68.13 change: -0.85 stop: $63.95

CNQ produced another failed rally at the $70.00 level today. The lack of follow through on yesterday's afternoon bounce is cause for concern. I'd wait for a new move over resistance at $70 before launching new positions. Our upside target is $74.00. If you are holding November calls we have to exit before Friday's closing bell.

Picked on  November 09 at $ 67.74 *gap open higher entry
                          /original trigger was $66.05
Change since picked:       + 0.39
Earnings Date            03/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on  November 07, 2009         


Coach Inc. - COH - close: 34.44 change: -0.04 stop: 33.75

COH spent the session churning sideways in a relatively narrow range. I'd wait for a new rise over $35.50 or maybe even a close over $35.50 before initiating new bullish positions.

Our first target is $38.00. Our second target is $39.85. My time frame is a few weeks. FYI: Traders should note that this week will bring several high-profile earnings reports in the retail sector. That could create volatility for stocks in this industry.

Picked on  November 14 at $ 36.93 /gap open higher
                               /originally listed at $35.56
Change since picked:       - 2.49
Earnings Date            01/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        4.9 million  
Listed on  November 14, 2009         


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 78.92 change: +0.11 stop: 76.75

There is no change from my prior comments.

Shares of CVX are still consolidating sideways. Yet if you look at the intraday chart the stock appears to be coiling for a bullish breakout higher. I would still consider new bullish positions here but readers might want to wait for a new high over $79.15 first (or consider waiting for a move over $80.00, which could also be psychological resistance). Our first target is $84.00.

Picked on  November 11 at $ 78.87 /gap higher entry point
Change since picked:       + 0.05
Earnings Date            01/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       10.6 million  
Listed on  November 10, 2009         


Deere & Co - DE - close: 51.46 change: +2.31 stop: 46.85

DE has produced a bullish breakout over significant resistance at the $50.00 level. We had a trigger to buy calls at $50.25. The stock gapped open higher at $50.52 (our new entry point). I had suggested the December calls with a preference for the $50 strike.

Our first target is $54.90. Our second target is $59.00. Keep in mind that we'll plan to exit ahead of DE's earnings report later in the month. More aggressive traders willing to hold over DE's earnings report will want to consider January 2010 calls.

Chart:

Picked on  November 18 at $ 50.52 *gap open higher   
Change since picked:       + 0.94
Earnings Date            11/25/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        6.2 million  
Listed on  November 09, 2009         


Deckers Outdoor - DECK - close: 99.11 change: -0.07 stop: 96.95

DECK continues to churn under resistance near the $100 level. We are still waiting for a bullish breakout higher. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $100.75. If triggered our first target is $107.50.

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 100.75
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            02/25/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        659 thousand
Listed on  November 16, 2009         


Essex Property - ESS - close: 81.02 change: +0.55 stop: 78.90

ESS managed a bounce from support near $80.00 again. Traders can use this dip near $80 as a new entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders might want to inch up their stops closer to $80.00. Our first target is $86.00. Our second target is $92.50.

Picked on  November 10 at $ 80.65
Change since picked:       + 0.37
Earnings Date            02/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        500 thousand 
Listed on  November 09, 2009         


Gold ETF - GLD - close: 112.25 change: +0.28 stop: 104.90

Another down day for the dollar pushed gold to another new all-time high over $1,150 an ounce. Gold eventually trimmed its intraday gains. The GLD hit $113.09 this morning. Both the price of gold and the GLD ETF look overbought. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Any November positions need to be closed before expiration this week. The newsletter's remaining position are the January $110 calls. Our second target to exit is $119.00. Our time frame is still several weeks.

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       + 9.97
                               /1st target hit @ 109.50 (+7.0%)
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


MSC Industrial Direct - MSM - close: 46.15 change: -0.47 stop: 44.49

MSM erased most of Tuesday's gains. I would still consider new positions here but more conservative traders may want to use the alternative entry points I suggested last night (a move over $46.75 or a bounce near $45.00). Our first target is $49.75. Our second target is $52.50.

Picked on  November 17 at $ 46.62
Change since picked:       - 0.47
Earnings Date            01/07/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        513 thousand 
Listed on  November 17, 2009         


Parker Hannifin - PH - close: 55.81 change: -0.28 stop: 52.90

PH dipped toward last week's low and bounced late in the afternoon. The larger trend is still up so readers can use the afternoon bounce as an entry point (use December calls). More conservative traders could up their stops toward $54.50. I am raising our stop to $53.40. Holders of November calls need to exit before expiration this week.

Our first target is $58.50. We will cautiously set a second target at $62.00 but the $60.00 level could prove to be strong resistance. I would use small positions.

Picked on  November 03 at $ 55.25
Change since picked:       + 0.56
Earnings Date            01/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.6 million  
Listed on  November 03, 2009         


Waters Corp - WAT - close: 59.97 change: -0.40 stop: 58.75

There is no change from my previous comments on WAT. We're still waiting for a move higher with a trigger to buy calls at $61.50. If triggered our first target is $64.90. We'll cautiously set a secondary target at $67.45.

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 61.50
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            01/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on  November 12, 2009         


Roper Industries - ROP - close: 53.63 change: -0.35 stop: 51.75

ROP is still consolidating sideways. Patient traders might get a better entry point if you wait for a pull back near $52.50-52.00. Our first target to take profits is at $58.50.

Picked on  November 17 at $ 53.98
Change since picked:       - 0.35
Earnings Date            02/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        915 thousand 
Listed on  November 17, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Northern Trust - NTRS - close: 48.68 change: +0.09 stop: 52.25

NTRS is still trying to bounce and has found new support near $48.00. Yet the stock continues to under perform its peers. The banking indices were up more than 1.3% today. NTRS only gained 0.18%. Look for shares to find some resistance in the $49.50-50.50 zone. Wait for the bounce to roll over before initiating new bearish trades. Our first target to take profits is at $45.25. Our second target is $41.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39.00 target.

Picked on  November 12 at $ 49.18
Change since picked:       - 0.50 
Earnings Date            01/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.0 million  
Listed on  November 12, 2009         


Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 59.85 change: -1.55 stop: 65.26

An analyst downgrade this morning pushed RIMM to a 2.5% decline and a close under round-number support at $60.00. This relative weakness is encouraging if you're a bear. I still hesitate to launch new positions given the upward trajectory in the major averages but RIMM is one of the better looking bearish candidates. Our first target is $55.25. Our second target is $50.50. RIMM can be a volatile stock so I'm suggesting smaller position sizes.

Picked on  November 16 at $ 61.80
Change since picked:       - 1.95
Earnings Date            12/17/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       18.9 million  
Listed on  November 12, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

Ultra(Long)-S&P500 - SSO - close: 37.85 change: -0.02 stop: n/a

The S&P 500 and the SSO have been churning sideways the last two sessions. I am not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

The options suggested for this strangle were the December $40 calls (SUC-LN) and the December $34 puts (SOJ-XH). Our estimated cost was $1.70. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00 or higher.

Picked on  November 11 at $ 37.08
Change since picked:       + 0.77
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =         32 million  
Listed on  November 11, 2009