CALL Play Updates

Arch Cap Group - ACGL - close: 70.68 change: -0.33 stop: 67.95

ACGL held up reasonably well. The stock lost 0.4% versus a 1.3% drop in the S&P 500. Shares did fall back under resistance at $71.00 again. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the $74.00 level.

Picked on  November 07 at $ 68.81
Change since picked:       + 1.87
Earnings Date            10/26/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        444 thousand 
Listed on  November 07, 2009         


Canadian Nat. Res. - CNQ - close: 67.02 change: -1.11 stop: $64.95 *new*

CNQ managed to find support at $66.00 this morning but shares still closed with a 1.6% decline. If this pull back continues CNQ should find additional support near $65.00.

Our original play suggested November calls so we're going to exit tomorrow at the closing bell. I'm raising our stop loss to $64.95.

Picked on  November 09 at $ 67.74 *gap open higher entry
                          /original trigger was $66.05
Change since picked:       - 0.72
Earnings Date            03/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on  November 07, 2009         


Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 77.34 change: -1.58 stop: 76.75

The bounce in the dollar sparked some profit taking in crude oil. This drug the energy stocks lower. CVX broke its short-term bullish trend of higher lows and almost hit our stop loss. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our first target is $84.00.

Picked on  November 11 at $ 78.87 /gap higher entry point
Change since picked:       - 1.53
Earnings Date            01/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       10.6 million  
Listed on  November 10, 2009         


Deere & Co - DE - close: 50.89 change: -0.57 stop: 46.85

DE pulled back toward prior resistance and what should be new support near $50.00. The stock might try to fill the gap from Wednesday morning so don't be surprised to see a dip toward $49.00. While the pattern on DE is bullish I would hesitate to launch new positions with the major indices showing weakness.

Our first target is $54.90. Our second target is $59.00. Keep in mind that we'll plan to exit ahead of DE's earnings report later in the month. More aggressive traders willing to hold over DE's earnings report will want to consider January 2010 calls.

Picked on  November 18 at $ 50.52 *gap open higher   
Change since picked:       + 0.37
Earnings Date            11/25/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        6.2 million  
Listed on  November 09, 2009         


Deckers Outdoor - DECK - close: 95.49 change: -3.62 stop: 96.95

DECK is breaking its short-term trend of higher lows. The stock managed to find some support near $95.00. We're still sitting on the sidelines waiting for a real breakout over the $100 level. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $100.75. If triggered our first target is $107.50.

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 100.75
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            02/25/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        659 thousand
Listed on  November 16, 2009         


Gold ETF - GLD - close: 112.30 change: +0.05 stop: 104.90

Most of the commodity sector turned lower on the dollar's bounce. Gold managed to ignore any dollar strength and hold on to its gains. The GLD dipped to $110.76 but bounced back into positive territory.

If you are holding November calls tomorrow is your last day to exit! I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. The newsletter's remaining position are the January $110 calls. Our second target to exit is $119.00. Our time frame is still several weeks.

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       +10.02
                               /1st target hit @ 109.50 (+7.0%)
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         


MSC Industrial Direct - MSM - close: 45.80 change: -0.35 stop: 44.49

MSM is dipping toward the $45.00 level, which is where the stock should find support. Bulls should also get support from the rising 50-dma. Look for a bounce from $45.00 before considering new positions. An alternative entry would be to wait for a rise over $46.75. Our first target is $49.75. Our second target is $52.50.

Picked on  November 17 at $ 46.62
Change since picked:       - 0.82
Earnings Date            01/07/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        513 thousand 
Listed on  November 17, 2009         


Parker Hannifin - PH - close: 54.31 change: -1.50 stop: 53.40 *new*

PH has fallen to technical support at its rising 50-dma. Any further breakdown from here would be bearish. The low today was $53.82. I'm raising our stop loss to $53.40. Traders could buy calls on a bounce but I'd suggest readers wait.

Our original trade suggested November calls so we will plan to exit tomorrow at the closing bell assuming we don't get stopped out first.

Picked on  November 03 at $ 55.25 (small positions)
Change since picked:       - 0.94
Earnings Date            01/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.6 million  
Listed on  November 03, 2009         


Waters Corp - WAT - close: 59.37 change: -0.60 stop: 58.75

WAT is testing prior resistance near $59.00 as new short-term support. Fortunately we're still on the sidelines waiting for a new relative high. I suggest we keep waiting.

Our trigger to buy calls is at $61.50. If triggered our first target is $64.90. We'll cautiously set a secondary target at $67.45.

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 61.50
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            01/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on  November 12, 2009         


PUT Play Updates

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters - GMCR - cls: 65.13 chg: -0.73 stop: 71.05

GMCR broke support at its 100-dma and the $65.00 level on Thursday. The intraday dip slipped to $63.32 before bouncing back to a 1.1% loss. Our trigger to buy puts was hit at $64.75. The play is now open.

I want to remind readers that this is a very aggressive trade. GMCR has seen several short squeezes in the past and the stock has very high short interest. Our first target is $60.25. Our second target is $55.50.

Chart:

Picked on  November 19 at $ 64.75
Change since picked:       + 0.38
Earnings Date            01/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.5 million  
Listed on  November 18, 2009         


Northern Trust - NTRS - close: 47.67 change: -1.01 stop: 52.25

NTRS sank to new multi-month lows with a close under short-term support near $48.00. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target to take profits is at $45.25. Our second target is $41.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish with a $39.00 target.

Picked on  November 12 at $ 49.18
Change since picked:       - 1.51 
Earnings Date            01/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.0 million  
Listed on  November 12, 2009         


Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 58.84 change: -1.01 stop: 65.26

RIMM dipped to $57.93 intraday. Shares spent most of the session trading sideways above the $58.00 level. I'm encouraging by the decline but you could argue shares are now short-term oversold from their recent $65 high. Our first target is $55.25. Our second target is $50.50. RIMM can be a volatile stock so I'm suggesting smaller position sizes.

Picked on  November 16 at $ 61.80
Change since picked:       - 2.96
Earnings Date            12/17/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       18.9 million  
Listed on  November 12, 2009         


Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

Ultra(Long)-S&P500 - SSO - close: 36.85 change: -1.00 stop: n/a

The S&P 500 and the SSO are pulling back from their highs. The retracement may not be over yet. I'm not suggesting new positions but this ETF has pulled back toward our original entry point.

The options suggested for this strangle were the December $40 calls (SUC-LN) and the December $34 puts (SOJ-XH). Our estimated cost was $1.70. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00 or higher.

Picked on  November 11 at $ 37.08
Change since picked:       - 0.23
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =         32 million  
Listed on  November 11, 2009         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Caterpillar - CAT - close: 58.61 change: -0.80 stop: 57.75

Dow-component CAT really under performed on Thursday. Shares gapped open lower and dipped under short-term support at $58.00. The stock hit our stop loss at $57.75. I didn't see any stock specific news to account for this relative weakness.

Chart:

Picked on  November 16 at $ 60.40
Change since picked:       - 2.65 <-- stopped @ 57.75 (-4.3%)
Earnings Date            01/26/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       11.3 million  
Listed on  November 16, 2009         


Coach Inc. - COH - close: 33.92 change: -0.52 stop: 33.75

Retail names continued to retreat and COH posted another decline. Shares broke technical support at the 50-dma and hit our stop loss at $33.75.

Chart:

Picked on  November 14 at $ 36.93 /gap open higher
                               /originally listed at $35.56
Change since picked:       - 3.18 <-- stopped out @ 33.75 (-8.6%)
Earnings Date            01/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        4.9 million  
Listed on  November 14, 2009         


Essex Property - ESS - close: 79.12 change: -1.90 stop: 78.90

Shares of ESS were downgraded this morning. The stock gapped open lower on the news and hit our stop loss at $78.90.

Chart:

Picked on  November 10 at $ 80.65
Change since picked:       - 1.75 <-- stopped out @ 78.90 (-2.1%)
Earnings Date            02/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        500 thousand 
Listed on  November 09, 2009         


Roper Industries - ROP - close: 52.49 change: -1.14 stop: 51.75

It was an ugly day for ROP. The stock spiked lower this morning and dipped to $51.56. That was enough to tag our stop loss at $51.75 ending this play. Readers may want to keep ROP on their watch list. A strong bounce from the rising 100-dma or a close over $54.00 may be new bullish entry points.

Chart:

Picked on  November 17 at $ 53.98
Change since picked:       - 2.23 <-- stopped out @ 51.75 (-4.1%)
Earnings Date            02/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        915 thousand 
Listed on  November 17, 2009