CALL Play Updates

AvalonBay Commty. - AVB - close: 80.42 change: +1.83 stop: 77.90

AVB almost completely erased yesterday's decline and the close over $80.00 is encouraging. However, I'm suggesting we wait for the move over $82. Our plan is to buy calls at $82.05. If triggered our first target is $87.50. We will plan to exit ahead of the early February earnings report.

Entry  on   January xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 82.05     
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/03/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on January 09, 2010


Caterpillar - CAT - close: 62.33 change: +0.09 stop: 59.45

CAT did not see much of a bounce. Shares traded sideways in a very narrow range. The $60 level should now be new support. Our second and final target is $67.00. Earnings are coming up quick and we plan to exit ahead of the report on January 26th.

Entry  on   January 09 at $ 60.95 /gap higher entry (small positions)     
Change since picked: + 1.38
/take profits early $ 64.13 (+5.2%) Earnings Date 01/26/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on January 09, 2010


Express Scripts - ESRX - close: 90.10 change: +0.93 stop: 87.45

Today's bounce back above $90.00 is a new entry point to buy calls. Our first target is $95.75. Our second target is $99.75. We do not want to hold over the February earnings report.

Entry  on   January 09 at $ 91.65 (small positions)     
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 02/24/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million
Listed on January 09, 2010


FUQI Intl. - FUQI - close: 21.31 change: +0.16 stop: 18.99

Traders bought the dip near $20.60 today. If you are looking for a new entry point I would still wait for a dip closer to $20.00. This was a very aggressive trade and I suggested very small positions. Our target to exit is $24.75 but more conservative traders may want to start taking profits early anywhere above $22.50.

Entry  on   January 06 at $ 20.51   (small positions 1/4)  
Change since picked: + 0.80
Earnings Date 03/31/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Listed on January 04, 2010


J.P.Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 44.25 change: +0.76 stop: 42.85 *new*

Banks produced a bounce and JPM out paced many of its peers with a 1.7% gain. We plan to exit tomorrow at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings on Friday. I'm upping our stop loss to $42.85, just under today's low.

Entry  on   January 04 at $ 42.85 (small positions 1/2)      
Change since picked: + 1.40
take profits on 01/09/10 @ 44.68 (+4.2%) Earnings Date 01/15/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 31.6 million
Listed on January 04, 2010


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 88.94 change: +0.76 stop: 86.90

The consolidation in LLL is starting to look more bullish as LLL creeps toward its 2009 highs. I remain somewhat cautious here and hesitate to launch new positions. If you have the January calls you'll need to exit tomorrow or Friday!

I did label this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our first target to take profits is at $89.95. Our second and final target is $94.00. We want to exit ahead of the late January earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $104 target.

Entry  on  December 28 at $ 86.80       
Change since picked: + 2.14
Earnings Date 01/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Listed on December 26, 2009


Precision Castparts - PCP - close: 114.81 change: +0.32 stop: 112.25

Traders bought the dip near $113 for the second day in a row. More conservative traders could up their stops toward $112.90. I'm not suggesting new positions. Our final target is $118.75. More aggressive traders could aim higher. Our original play listed the January calls so we'll have to exit tomorrow or Friday.

Picked on  December 01 at $107.35      
Change since picked: + 7.46
/1st target hit $112.45 (+4.7%)
Earnings Date 01/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 817 thousand
Listed on November 28, 2009


TORO Co. - TTC - close: 43.85 change: +0.63 stop: 41.40

TTC erased yesterday's losses and is coiling near short-term resistance at $44.00. If the market shows any strength tomorrow TTC has a decent chance to breakout. Our exit target is $45.90. We don't want to hold over the February earnings report. The plan calls for small positions to limit our risk.

Entry  on   January 07 at $ 42.60 (small positions)      
Change since picked: + 1.25
Earnings Date 02/18/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 289 thousand
Listed on January 05, 2010


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 32.54 change: +0.49 stop: 29.90

Traders bought the dip in UNH again. This continues to look like a new entry point as long as you apply a relatively tight stop loss. If you have January options we have to exit this week. That leaves us tomorrow or Friday. Conservative traders will want to consider an exit near short-term resistance at $33.

This was a "lottery ticket" style of play. We knew it was risky given all the political ups and downs for the healthcare bill. Our time frame was several weeks and we listed January and March calls. At this time if you choose to open new positions I'd use March calls but that would require holding over the late January earnings report (to get the most out of your March calls). Our first target is $34.00. Our longer-term target is $36.00.

Entry  on  December 10 at $ 30.31       
Change since picked: + 2.23
Earnings Date 01/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 819 thousand
Listed on December 10, 2009


Union Pacific - UNP - close: 67.47 change: +0.08 stop: 64.90

I don't see any change from yesterday's comments. Traders bought the dip at $66.55 today. I would still open bullish positions at current levels. Our first target is $69.95. Our second target is $72.00 but that is very optimistic. Earnings are coming up this month and we plan to exit ahead of earnings. I'm listing our stop loss at $64.90 but more conservative traders might be able to get away with a stop closer to $66.25 or $66.50. The low today was $66.76. Our risk/reward is not super attractive here so consider smaller positions.

Entry  on   January 12 at $ 67.39     
Change since picked: + 0.08
Earnings Date 01/21/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on January 12, 2010


Whirlpool - WHR - close: 83.07 change: +0.72 stop: 79.90

If WHR can clear the $84 level again I'd be tempted to launch new positions. I'd use February or March calls. Our original play suggested January calls so we'll need to exit our current trade before expiration.

WHR has already hit our first target at $84.75. Our second target is $89.00.

Entry  on  December 19 at $ 80.76 /gap higher entry      
Change since picked: + 2.31
/1st target hit $84.75 (+4.9%)
Earnings Date 02/08/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on December 19, 2009


PUT Play Updates

*Currently we do not have any put play updates*


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Sears Holding - SHLD - close: 103.12 change: +2.69 stop: 102.05

SHLD is showing way more strength than expected. There was no weakness yesterday when the market turned lower and today shares hit new relative highs. The stock hit our stop loss at $102.05 closing this trade.

Chart:

Entry  on   January 09 at $ 99.17 (small positions)    
Change since picked: + 2.88 <-- stopped @ 102.05 (+2.9%)
Earnings Date 02/25/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on January 09, 2010