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Investors are still nervous and confused. Stocks remain somewhat oversold and could easily rebound but the market is lacking a catalyst to lift stocks higher. The path of least resistance may still be down.
Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 73.68 change: -0.49 stop: 68.75 Euro weakness gave the dollar a little lift and commodities struggled on Friday. Shares of FCX gapped open lower only to rebound off their lows. The short-term trend is still up. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. After forming a double bottom near its 200-dma FCX is poised to rally toward resistance at its 50 and 100-dma near $78.00. We have already taken profits once. Our second and final target is $77.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time but nimble traders can certainly try new positions here although you may want to consider a tighter stop loss.
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Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 200.38 change: +1.71 stop: 210.51 Friday morning shares of AAPL were upgraded to a buy and given a $280 price target. This helped the stock outperform the market with a 0.8% gain and a close over round-number resistance at the $200 mark. Yet the rally stalled at its 50-dma. A little oversold bounce would be normal but I would wait for the bounce to stall or roll over before initiating new positions. Look for additional resistance near $205. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops closer to $206. Our first target to take profits is at $182.50. Our second target is $165.00 although we might exit at the 200-dma. This is an aggressive trade and I'm suggesting small positions.
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Abbott Labs - ABT - close: 53.93 change: +0.39 stop: 55.05 ABT is still churning sideways between technical support at its 100-dma and overhead resistance near $55 and its 50-dma (54.25). On a very short-term basis the recent bounce does look bullish. I'm suggesting readers wait for the bounce to fail and roll over before initiating new positions. our first target is $50.15. More aggressive traders can target the 200-dma or support near $48.00.
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Franklen Resources Inc. - BEN - close: 97.86 change: -0.13 stop: 105.26 *new* BEN has been trading sideways for a week now. Traders are buying the dip near $96 but the stock has found new resistance near $98.50. The stock is going to break one way or the other. If it moves higher we can look for resistance near $100 and at the 50-dma near $105. I'm not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. Please note that the 200-dma has risen to $92.64. I am raising our exit target from $92.50 to $93.50. I'm also adjusting the stop loss down to $105.26.
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General Dynamics - GD - close: 67.95 change: +0.15 stop: 70.55 GD is still churning sideways. Traders bought the dip again on Friday morning. I would expect a bounce toward the 50-dma (near 68.63) or toward the $70.00 level. We're better off waiting for the bounce to fail and roll over before initiating new positions. There is potential support at $65 and the exponential 200-dma but we want to aim for the simple 200-dma near $62.01. Our official exit target is $62.60.
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Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 153.93 change: -0.12 stop: 156.05 Shares of GS are still going nowhere fast. The consolidation is actually narrowing and that would suggest a breakout is imminent. If shares move higher they should find resistance at $160 and the converging 50 and 200-dma near $162. Technically seeing the 50-dma cross under the 200-dma is called a "death cross" because it's very bearish longer-term. Overall I don't see any changes from my prior comments. GS could chop around the $150-160 zone for days. If we see a really clearly defined failed rally near the $160 level we might jump in. Otherwise we'll stick to the plan, which is using a trigger to buy puts at $147.45. If triggered our first target to take profits is at $138.00.
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Gymboree - GYMB - close: 41.76 change: -0.09 stop: 42.26 I think our GYMB play could be in trouble. We originally listed the February $40 puts. February options only have four trading days left. GYMB has been showing relative strength the last two weeks with a bounce toward resistance near $42.00. I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. I'm reducing our exit targets to one at $35.50.
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Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 124.00 change: +0.27 stop: 131.55 IBM has been trading sideways in the $122-124 zone for days now. It looks like shares want to bounce. The stock should find technical resistance at its 100-dma and the 50-dma (near $128 for the 50-dma). Our plan has not changed. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $127.00. If triggered at $127.00 our first target is $122.00. Our second target is the 200-dma.
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Infosys Tech. - INFY - close: 54.03 change: -0.24 stop: 55.15 The oversold bounce in INFY has stalled right where we expected it to near the 50-dma. It is certainly possible that the rebound continues but the $55 level should also offer overhead resistance. More conservative traders may want to wait for shares to reverse before launching new put positions. Our first target is $50.15. Our second target is $46.50. The plan was to use the March $50 puts.
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JPMorgan Chase - JPM - close: 38.95 change: -0.07 stop: 41.65 The oversold bounce in the banks has definitely stalled as investors worry about the pace of economic growth and the European debt challenges. JPM should have resistance near $40.00 and its 200-dma. If shares do make it past the 200-dma there should be additional resistance at the 50-dma near $41.25. It appears that the 50-dma will cross under the 200-dma soon, which is a very bearish signal. I'm suggesting readers open positions on a bounce or failed rally near $40.00. Our first target to take profits is at $35.25. Our second target is $32.00.
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Mckesson Corp. - MCK - close: 58.99 change: +0.00 stop: 62.51 MCK has been consolidating sideways in the $58-59 zone for a week now. If shares do rebound we can look for resistance near $60.00 and again near the 50 and 100-dma near $61.50. While we can open positions now I'm suggesting readers wait for a bounce or failed rally near the 50-dma. Our first target to take profits will be $54.00.
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MEDCO Health Solutions - MHS - close: 62.12 change: -0.66 stop: 64.26 So far so good. MHS bounced just as expected and hit our trigger to buy puts at $62.75. I would still consider positions now but you could choose to wait for shares to challenge their 50-dma near $63.65. The 50-dma and the $64.00 level should be overhead resistance. Our first target is $57.50.
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Retail Holders - RTH - close: 91.54 change: -0.35 stop: 94.10 There was no follow through on Thursday's bullish reversal candlestick. News from the Commerce Department that retail sales rose in January had no real affect on the sector or the market. If the RTH does bounce we can look for resistance near $93 and its 50-dma. I am suggesting new positions now or on a bounce near $93.00. Our first target is the $87.00 level. The 200-dma will probably be support. The RTH moves kind of slow so make sure you use an option that gives you enough time.
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SIEMENS - SI - close: 85.06 change: -2.07 stop: 92.05 *new* It was a good day for the bears. European markets trended lower. Shares of SI gapped open lower in the U.S. and closed under technical support at their 200-dma. The 50-dma has fallen to $91.77 so I'm lowering our stop loss to $92.05. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. SI has already hit our first target at $87.55. Our second and final target is $81.00.
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United Technology - UTX - close: 65.69 change: -1.02 stop: 69.05 The trend is down as UTX sank toward its recent lows but traders bought the dip near $65.00 again. That's the second time in a week. It's possible this is a bullish double bottom forming. While the trend is bearish I hesitate to launch new positions at this moment. Shares might still rebound toward $68.50 or the 50-dma near $69.00. Our target to take profits is $61.00 near the rising 200-dma.
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Teva Pharmaceutical - TEVA - close: 58.86 change: +0.56 stop: 56.45 Time is up. TEVA rallied higher into the weekend. Shares look poised to challenge the $60 level soon. Unfortunately we're out of time. Our plan was to exit on Friday at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings on Tuesday morning (market is closed on Monday). Chart:
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