CALL Play Updates

Autozone Inc - AZO - close: 165.62 change: +0.75 stop: 154.95

Traders bought the dip again on Wednesday morning and AZO managed another new relative high. Our first target to take profits is at $167.50. I am adding a second, more aggressive target at $174.00 but that will require AZO to break through resistance in the $170 region.

Entry  on  February 16 at $161.75 (small positions)
Change since picked:       + 3.87
Earnings Date            03/02/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        538 thousand 
Listed on  February 13, 2010         


Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 75.12 change: -0.82 stop: 71.95

Strength in the dollar sucked the wind out of the sails for commodities. Shares of FCX spiked to $76.64 this morning but quickly reversed. While FCX did pared its losses by the close it still lost 1% and appears to have produced a bearish reversal candlestick pattern. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit now or exit on another bounce over $76.00. Officially our second and final target is $77.25.

Entry  on  February 06 at $ 70.23 
Change since picked:       + 4.89
                                /take profits now @ 74.17 (+5.6%)
Earnings Date            04/22/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       20.6 million  
Listed on  February 06, 2010         


Sears Holding - SHLD - close: 95.32 change: +2.64 stop: 89.75 *new*

Our new call play on SHLD is off to a strong start. Shares gapped open at $93.07 and surged to a 2.8% gain out performing the rest of the market. The suggested March $95 calls opened at $3.85 this morning. I am raising our stop loss to $89.75. Our first target is $97.45. Our second, very optimistic target is $102.00.

Entry  on  February 16 at $ 93.07 (small positions) /gap open entry
Change since picked:       + 2.25
Earnings Date            02/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.7 million  
Listed on  February 16, 2010         


Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 64.41 change: -0.50 stop: 61.99

I hope we don't eventually regret not waiting for a breakout over $66.00. Our plan was to buy calls at $65.51. Shares of WYNN opened strong this morning and quickly hit our trigger. Unfortunately the stock reversed near $66.00 to close in the red. The short-term trend still has a bullish pattern of higher lows. More aggressive traders could buy this dip but more conservative traders may want to wait for a move over $66.00 to initiate positions. Our target is $71.90, just under the January highs. This is definitely an aggressive play with a short-term time frame and a volatile sector.

Don't forget that WYNN could be heavily influenced by LVS' earnings report on Feb. 17th.

Chart:

Entry  on  February 17 at $ 65.51 (small positions)
Change since picked:       - 1.10
Earnings Date            02/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.2 million  
Listed on  February 13, 2010         


United States Steel - X - close: 50.85 change: -0.29 stop: 44.95

Target achieved. Shares of X gapped open higher at $51.86 and spiked to $52.47, hitting its 50-dma, before reversing lower. Our first target to take profits was at $51.75 so we should have booked a gain at the opening bell. The March $50 calls opened at $4.25. We still have a second, more aggressive target at $54.00 but I suspect X could retreat first. The 50-dma is technical resistance and I wouldn't be surprised to see X dip toward $47.50-46.00 again before moving higher.

Chart:

Entry  on  February 13 at $ 49.23 (small positions)/gap higher entry
Change since picked:       + 1.62
                           /1st target hit @ 51.86 (gap open exit, +5.3%)
Earnings Date            04/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       23.3 million  
Listed on  February 13, 2010         


PUT Play Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 202.55 change: -0.85 stop: 210.51

There was no follow through on AAPL's breakout from Tuesday. The short-term trend is up but the bulls have to fight for it. I'm expecting resistance in the $205-207.50-210 area. We knew this was going to be somewhat volatile and an aggressive trade so we left our stop loss wide. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit or a tighter stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target to take profits is at $182.50. Our second target is $165.00 although we might exit at the 200-dma. The plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

Entry  on   January 28 at $201.08 (small positions)/gap open entry
Change since picked:       + 1.47
Earnings Date            01/25/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         26 million  
Listed on   January 28, 2010         


Abbott Labs - ABT - close: 54.75 change: +0.16 stop: 55.05

The BTK biotech index is breaking out past resistance to hit new multi-year highs. This gave ABT some strength today and shares hit $54.98 intraday. This bullishness in the biotech sector is a problem for us. More conservative traders may want to exit early. If there is any follow through higher tomorrow we will probably get stopped out at $55.05. No new positions at this time.

Our first target was $50.15. More aggressive traders can target the 200-dma or support near $48.00.

Entry  on  February 10 at $ 52.80
Change since picked:       + 1.95
Earnings Date            04/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        7.5 million  
Listed on  February 09, 2010         


Franklen Resources Inc. - BEN - close: 100.90 change: +0.92 stop: 105.26

Yesterday it was bullish earnings news from Barclays that furled a rally in banks. Today there was bullish news from BNP Paribas. Although the banking sector didn't really perform that well on Wednesday shares of BEN did inch higher. The stock hit our stop loss to close the Feb. $95 put positions at $100.26. We still have the March $95 puts.

Entry  on   January 30 at $ 99.59 /gap higher entry point (small positions)
Change since picked:       + 1.31 
Earnings Date            01/28/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on   January 30, 2010         


Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 157.26 change: -0.14 stop: 156.05

There was not much follow through on GS' mini-breakout from yesterday. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. We are still sitting on the sidelines since our trigger to buy puts is at $147.45. More nimble traders may want to consider a failed rally at the 50-dma/200-dma as a possible entry point. If triggered our first target to take profits is at $138.00.

Entry  on  February xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 147.45
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            04/13/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         17 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2010         


Gymboree - GYMB - close: 42.05 change: +0.16 stop: 42.26

There is no change from my prior comments. Here is a repost of Tuesday's update:

I am ready to call it quits on GYMB but it looks like it's too late. Our Feb. $40 put has dwindled to nothing. Unfortunately odds are very high that we're going to get stopped out at $42.26 in the next day or two. No new positions at this time.

Entry  on   January 23 at $ 39.74 
Change since picked:       + 2.31
Earnings Date            03/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        513 thousand 
Listed on   January 23, 2010         


Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 126.33 change: +1.10 stop: 130.51

The rebound in IBM continues on schedule. We're expecting a bounce toward the 50-dma. Our plan is to buy puts at $127.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for a failed rally pattern first before launching positions. If triggered at $127.00 our first target is $122.00. Our second target is the 200-dma.

Entry  on  February xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 127.00
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            04/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        8.2 million  
Listed on  February 03, 2010         


JPMorgan Chase - JPM - close: 40.04 change: -0.03 stop: 41.65

The rally in the banks stalled on Wednesday and JPM continues to struggle with the $40.00 level and its 200-dma. Wait for the rebound to fail before considering new bearish positions. Our first target to take profits is at $35.25. Our second target is $32.00.

Entry  on   January 26 at $ 38.44 
Change since picked:       + 1.60
Earnings Date            04/15/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         46 million  
Listed on   January 26, 2010         


Mckesson Corp. - MCK - close: 60.27 change: +0.39 stop: 62.51

MCK managed to bounce over round-number resistance at $60.00 but we've been expecting as much. Right now we're watching for resistance near the 50-dma near $61.40. I'm suggesting readers wait for a failed rally near its 50-dma before launching new positions. Our first target to take profits will be $54.00.

Entry  on   January 30 at $ 58.82 
Change since picked:       + 1.45
Earnings Date            01/26/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on   January 30, 2010         


MEDCO Health Solutions - MHS - close: 63.76 change: +0.69 stop: 64.26

Healthcare stocks were some of the best performers today. Shares of MHS outperformed the broader market with a 1% gain and a breakout above its 50-dma. Shares did manage to hit $64.16 but pared their gains. The $64.00 level should be resistance but given the strength in the healthcare sector today odds are pretty good we could get stopped out tomorrow. No new positions until we see the rebound reverse. Our first target is $57.50.

Entry  on  February 11 at $ 62.75 
Change since picked:       + 1.01
Earnings Date            02/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.2 million  
Listed on  February 09, 2010         


Retail Holders - RTH - close: 93.74 change: +0.91 stop: 94.10

It's not looking good for our bearish play on the retail sector. The RTH has extended its gains and managed to breakout over technical resistance at the 50-dma. I am suggesting that more conservative traders STRONGLY consider an early exit right here. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. If there is any follow through tomorrow we'll probably get stopped out at $94.10. Our first target was the $87.00 level.

Entry  on   January 23 at $ 91.42 
Change since picked:       + 2.32
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        1.7 million  
Listed on   January 23, 2010         


SIEMENS - SI - close: 87.57 change: +0.30 stop: 92.05

SI didn't make much progress on Wednesday in spite of the strength in Europe. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. I suggest that more conservative traders exit early now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. SI has already hit our first target at $87.55. Our second and final target is $81.00.

Entry  on   January 26 at $ 94.34 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:       - 6.77
                            /1st target hit @ 87.55 (-7.1%)
Earnings Date            01/26/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        368 thousand 
Listed on   January 26, 2010         


United Technology - UTX - close: 67.35 change: +1.45 stop: 69.05

We've been expecting a little bounce in shares of UTX and it finally showed up today. The stock gained 2.2% and closed above its 100-dma. Shares should have resistance near $68.50 and its 50-dma near $69.14. Wait for a new failed rally pattern before launching new positions. Our target to take profits is $61.00 near the rising 200-dma.

Entry  on  February 04 at $ 66.38 
Change since picked:       + 1.40
Earnings Date            04/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        5.1 million  
Listed on  February 04, 2010         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

General Dynamics - GD - close: 70.10 change: +0.25 stop: 70.55

GD continues to creep higher. Shares managed to close above $70.00 but did not hit our stop loss at $70.55. Yesterday I discussed this very possibility. We're exiting early.

Chart:

Entry  on  February 10 at $ 67.64
Change since picked:       + 2.46 <-- exit early @ 70.10 (+3.6%)
Earnings Date            04/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.4 million  
Listed on  February 10, 2010