CALL Play Updates

Autozone Inc - AZO - close: 163.19 change: -2.43 stop: 154.95

There were some lackluster analyst comments on AZO this morning. Traders took the news as an opportunity to take profits. AZO was really under performing this morning. Fortunately prior resistance acted as new support near $160 and AZO rebounded off its lows. This looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls. However, I'm concerned that the surprise move by the Federal Reserve tonight could send stocks lower on Friday morning.

Our first target to take profits is at $167.50. Our second, more aggressive target is $174.00 but that will require AZO to break through resistance in the $170 region.

Entry  on  February 16 at $161.75 (small positions)
Change since picked:       + 1.44
Earnings Date            03/02/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        538 thousand 
Listed on  February 13, 2010         


Freeport McMoran - FCX - close: 76.60 change: +1.48 stop: 71.95

There was no follow through on yesterday's bearish reversal pattern. Shares of FCX were looking good today with a 1.9% gain, which out performed the rest of the market. Unfortunately it could all vanish tomorrow morning! The surprise move by the Fed to raise the discount rate, while largely symbolic, is sending futures lower and the dollar higher. If the dollar rallies the commodity stocks tend to sink. I'm concerned that FCX could gap open lower tomorrow morning. If we get stopped out at $71.95 we might consider jumping back in if FCX bounces at the $70.00 level. Officially our second and final target is $77.25.

Entry  on  February 06 at $ 70.23 
Change since picked:       + 6.37
                                /take profits now @ 74.17 (+5.6%)
Earnings Date            04/22/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       20.6 million  
Listed on  February 06, 2010         


Sears Holding - SHLD - close: 94.40 change: -0.94 stop: 89.75

After two days of strong gains SHLD took a rest with a 0.9% decline. Look for the $91.00-90.00 levels to act as support if the stock dips. Our first target is $97.45. Our second, very optimistic target is $102.00.

Entry  on  February 16 at $ 93.07 (small positions) /gap open entry
Change since picked:       + 1.33
Earnings Date            02/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.7 million  
Listed on  February 16, 2010         


United States Steel - X - close: 50.96 change: +0.11 stop: 44.95

Be careful here. Shares of X could also gap down on Friday morning as the dollar spikes on the Fed news. Look for support in the $47-45 zone. I'd wait for a bounce before considering new positions. X has already hit our first target. Our second and final target is $54.00.

Entry  on  February 13 at $ 49.23 (small positions)/gap higher entry
Change since picked:       + 1.73
                           /1st target hit @ 51.86 (gap open exit, +5.3%)
Earnings Date            04/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       23.3 million  
Listed on  February 13, 2010         


PUT Play Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 202.92 change: +0.37 stop: 210.51

Shares of AAPL are still oscillating on either side of its 50-dma. Yet bulls could argue that every day it stays above $200 increases support at this level. There is no change from my prior comments. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target to take profits is at $182.50. Our second target is $165.00 although we might exit at the 200-dma. The plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

Entry  on   January 28 at $201.08 (small positions)/gap open entry
Change since picked:       + 1.84
Earnings Date            01/25/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         26 million  
Listed on   January 28, 2010         


Abbott Labs - ABT - close: 54.97 change: +0.22 stop: 55.05

I am very surprised that ABT didn't hit our stop loss today but the rally in the biotech sector stalled. Shares of ABT couldn't breakout past resistance at the $55.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target was $50.15. More aggressive traders can target the 200-dma or support near $48.00.

Entry  on  February 10 at $ 52.80
Change since picked:       + 2.17
Earnings Date            04/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        7.5 million  
Listed on  February 09, 2010         


Franklen Resources Inc. - BEN - close: 101.41 change: +0.51 stop: 105.26

BEN is still trying to bounce. I think shares will reverse at the 50-dma, currently near $104.50. However, the Fed news after the bell tonight could send the entire financial sector lower. Don't be surprised if BEN gaps open lower tomorrow morning. Our target to take profits is $93.50.

Entry  on   January 30 at $ 99.59 /gap higher entry point (small positions)
Change since picked:       + 1.82 
Earnings Date            01/28/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on   January 30, 2010         


Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 155.73 change: -1.53 stop: 156.05

Shares of GS underperformed the financial sector and the broader market on Thursday. I'm expecting more weakness tomorrow as the banking stocks react to the Fed news even though the rise in the discount rate is largely symbolic. Our plan is to buy puts at $147.45. If triggered our first target to take profits is at $138.00.

Entry  on  February xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 147.45
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            04/13/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         17 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2010         


Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 127.81 change: +1.48 stop: 130.51

The bounce in IBM continued right on schedule. Shares made a run at their 50-dma and hit our trigger to buy puts at $127.00. Now that the play is open our first target is $122.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for a reversal first before launching positions but that could happen tomorrow as stocks react to the Fed move. Our second target is the 200-dma.

Chart:

Entry  on  February 18 at $127.00
Change since picked:       + 0.81
Earnings Date            04/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        8.2 million  
Listed on  February 03, 2010         


JPMorgan Chase - JPM - close: 40.41 change: +0.37 stop: 41.65

JPM is still trying to rebound and managed to close above its simple 200-dma on Thursday. This is short-term bullish but the stock does have overhead resistance at the 50-dma (near $41.15). Plus the financial sector is likely to trend lower tomorrow morning as investors react to the Fed's decision to raise the discount rate. Don't forget that February options expire after tomorrow. Consider exiting the Feb. $38 puts on any spike lower. Our first target to take profits is at $35.25. Our second target is $32.00.

Entry  on   January 26 at $ 38.44 
Change since picked:       + 1.97
Earnings Date            04/15/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         46 million  
Listed on   January 26, 2010         


Mckesson Corp. - MCK - close: 60.71 change: +0.44 stop: 62.51

The oversold bounce in MCK continues. I've been suggesting readers look for a failed rally at the 50-dma currently near $61.40. Our first target to take profits will be $54.00.

Entry  on   January 30 at $ 58.82 
Change since picked:       + 1.89
Earnings Date            01/26/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on   January 30, 2010         


SIEMENS - SI - close: 89.51 change: +1.94 stop: 92.05

It was a positive day in Europe and shares of SI gapped open at $88.97. The stock closed with a 2.2% gain. Watch for the 50-dma near $91.25 to act as resistance. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. SI has already hit our first target at $87.55. Our second and final target is $81.00.

Entry  on   January 26 at $ 94.34 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:       - 4.83
                            /1st target hit @ 87.55 (-7.1%)
Earnings Date            01/26/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        368 thousand 
Listed on   January 26, 2010         


United Technology - UTX - close: 68.11 change: +0.76 stop: 69.05

UTX is still drifting towards resistance in the $68.50 region. Wait for the bounce to fail before considering new positions. Our target to take profits is $61.00 near the rising 200-dma.

Entry  on  February 04 at $ 66.38 
Change since picked:       + 1.73
Earnings Date            04/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        5.1 million  
Listed on  February 04, 2010         


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Wynn Resorts - WYNN - close: 62.01 change: -2.40 stop: 61.99

Our bullish bet on WYNN didn't pan out. I cautioned readers that WYNN would move on the earnings report from rival LVS. Well last night LVS reported earnings that disappointed the street by only meeting expectations. Shares of LVS are down almost 9% today and WYNN fell 3.7% in response. Shares of WYNN hit our stop loss at $61.99 closing the trade one day after it opened. We knew this was an aggressive trade and suggested small positions to limit risk.

Chart:

Entry  on  February 17 at $ 65.51 (small positions)
Change since picked:       - 3.52 <- stopped out @ 61.99 (-5.3%)
Earnings Date            02/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.2 million  
Listed on  February 13, 2010         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Gymboree - GYMB - close: 42.33 change: +0.28 stop: 42.26

We've been expecting it for a few days now. GYMB finally pushed through resistance at $42.00 and hit our stop loss at $42.26. Unfortunately there wasn't any value left in our option to stop since we picked the Feb. $40s.

Chart:

Entry  on   January 23 at $ 39.74 
Change since picked:       + 2.52 <-- stopped out @ 42.26 (+6.3%)
Earnings Date            03/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        513 thousand 
Listed on   January 23, 2010         


MEDCO Health Solutions - MHS - close: 64.40 change: +0.64 stop: 64.26

Healthcare stocks were some of the worst performers on Thursday and yet MHS continued to show relative strength and broke out over resistance at $64.00. Shares hit our stop loss at $64.26 closing the trade.

Chart:

Entry  on  February 11 at $ 62.75 
Change since picked:       + 1.51 <-- stopped @ 64.26 (+2.4%)
Earnings Date            02/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.2 million  
Listed on  February 09, 2010         


Retail Holders - RTH - close: 93.94 change: +0.20 stop: 94.10

The retailers continued to rally even as Wal-Mart offered cautious guidance going forward. Consumer spending has not recovered so this strength in the retailers is puzzling! Our stop loss on the RTH was $94.10 and shares hit $94.11 very late this afternoon. I would watch the RTH to see how shares react near much stronger resistance in the $95.50-96.00 zone.

Chart:

Entry  on   January 23 at $ 91.42 
Change since picked:       + 2.68 <-- stopped out @ 94.10 (+2.9%)
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        1.7 million  
Listed on   January 23, 2010