We are trimming the play list tonight. Stocks were able to fight back from their morning lows and the consolidation is starting to take on a move bullish tone.


CALL Play Updates

Autozone Inc - AZO - close: 166.08 change: +1.12 stop: 161.75 *new*

Don't forget we only have two days left! AZO is still showing strength. Traders immediately bought the gap down and the stock is challenging short-term resistance near $166.00. Our plan is to exit at $167.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher but we do not want to hold over earnings on March 2nd. If AZO does not hit our target we will exit on Monday, March 1st at the closing bell. Please note our new stop loss at $161.75.

Entry  on  February 16 at $161.75 (small positions)
Change since picked:       + 3.21
Earnings Date            03/02/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        538 thousand 
Listed on  February 13, 2010         


Celgene Corp. - CELG - close: 59.29 change: -0.20 stop: varies

Traders bought the dip in CELG at $58.15. Thus the $58 level is still holding up as short-term support. Seeing as how the market refuses to sell-off I'm suggesting we adjust our strategy. We'll keep our trigger to buy calls on a dip at $56.50 (and use a stop loss at $53.90). However, if the market can breakout out of this temporary decline then we will want to consider buying a breakout in CELG. I'm adding a more aggressive trigger to buy the breakout at $60.65. If triggered at $60.65 we'll use a stop loss at $56.75.

Let me spell this out more clearly:

Buy the dip: Use a trigger to buy the dip at $56.50 with a stop loss at $53.90. Our first target to take profits is $62.50. Our second, longer-term target is $69.00.

Buy the breakout: Use a trigger to buy calls a $60.65 with a stop at $56.75. Our first target is $64.85. Our second and final target is $69.00.

I am suggesting the April $60 calls (DXQ1020D60) for both entry points (I am no longer suggesting March calls on this trade).

Entry  on  February xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 56.50 or 60.65
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            04/29/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        3.6 million  
Listed on  February 20, 2010         


Colgate Palmolive - CL - close: 83.11 change: +0.15 stop: 79.75

Traders continue to buy the dip in CL. This time shares spiked to $80.87 before traders jumped in. that was a temporary dip under both the 50 and 100-dma but the weakness didn't last long. The surge to new relative highs looks pretty bullish. Our target to exit is $86.00.

Entry  on  February 20 at $ 81.75 
Change since picked:       + 1.65
Earnings Date            04/29/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on  February 20, 2010         


Sina Corp. - SINA - close: 37.21 change: +0.29 stop: 35.90 *new*

I remain cautious on SINA. Traders did buy the dip at $36.00 near its 200-dma on Thursday. The bounce off its lows is encouraging but shares remain stuck in their sideways consolidation. I'm encouraged that the Chinese market is not showing more weakness but readers will want to be careful about opening new positions. I would look for some confirmation of Thursday's bounce. I am also raising our stop loss to $35.90. More aggressive traders will want to leave their stop under $35.00 since the recent February lows have been in the $35.25 area.

Currently we have a target to take profits at $39.95. I'm adding a second target at $41.75 but we'll need to keep a wary eye on possible resistance at the 50 and 100-dma.

Entry  on  February 22 at $ 36.50
Change since picked:       + 0.71
Earnings Date            03/03/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.4 million  
Listed on  February 18, 2010         


TEVA Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 60.28 change: +0.72 stop: 57.40 *new*

Shares of TEVA continue to show relative strength. Traders quickly bought the dip this morning and the stock broke out past resistance at $60.00. This is a very bullish development and a new all-time high for TEVA. I am raising our stop loss to $57.40. Our target to exit is $64.00.

Entry  on  February 20 at $ 58.74 
Change since picked:       + 1.54
Earnings Date            05/05/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        5.1 million  
Listed on  February 20, 2010         


PUT Play Updates

Franklen Resources Inc. - BEN - close: 100.17 change: -1.48 stop: 102.51 *new*

The action in the financials has been pretty choppy lately. However, the banking sectors have developed a more bullish tone and act like they want to breakout higher. I'm suggesting we take a more defensive posture on BEN and lower our stop loss to $102.51, just above the recent high. The trend in BEN is still bearish with lower highs and lower lows but this way if shares rally to a new relative high we'll get stopped out. I am not suggesting new bearish positions in BEN at this time. Our exit target is $95.00.

Entry  on   January 30 at $ 99.59 /gap higher entry point (small positions)
Change since picked:       + 0.58 
Earnings Date            01/28/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.2 million  
Listed on   January 30, 2010         


Caterpillar - CAT - close: 56.79 change: -0.17 stop: 59.01

Shares of CAT were leading the decline this morning with a gap down and a spike to $54.21. I wasn't too surprised to see a bounce since we cautioned traders to look for some support near $54.00. Shares rallied back to fill the gap and close almost unchanged on the session. That sort of intraday strength is a warning sign for us! More conservative traders may want to scale back on their positions or tighten their stops. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We did label this an aggressive short-term trade. Our target to exit is $51.00.

Entry  on  February 23 at $ 56.66 
Change since picked:       + 0.13
Earnings Date            04/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         12 million  
Listed on  February 23, 2010         


Australian Dollar ETF - FXA - close: 89.11 change: -0.39 stop: 90.60

The dollar was stronger this morning and the FXA gapped open lower in response. Unfortunately the dollar's rally began to fade and FXA pared its losses. Nothing has changed for us. FXA is in a trend of lower highs and lower lows. Our time frame for the Australian dollar to decline is several weeks so you'll need to exercise some patience. There is possible support at the 200-dma but our first target is $83.00. Our second, longer-term target is $80.10.

Entry  on  February 23 at $ 89.23 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:       - 0.12
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        200 thousand 
Listed on  February 23, 2010         


Mckesson Corp. - MCK - close: 59.14 change: -0.01 stop: 61.55

Thus far MCK hasn't seen much follow through on Tuesday's decline but shares are still building a trend of lower highs and lower lows. If MCK manages another bounce we can look for resistance near the 50 and 100-dma around $61.25. Please note the 200-dma is rising quickly. I'm adjusting our first target to exit higher to $55.55 to try and stay above the 200-dma. More aggressive traders can aim lower.

Entry  on   January 30 at $ 58.82 
Change since picked:       + 0.32
Earnings Date            01/26/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on   January 30, 2010         


SIEMENS - SI - close: 85.46 change: -1.47 stop: 90.85 *new*

A down day in the European markets produced a big gap down for the U.S. traded shares of SI. The stock did pared its losses but still closed with a 1.69% loss. I am adjusting our stop loss down to $90.85, just above the simple 50-dma. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to take profits early right now since SI is bouncing from its February lows and possible support. Officially our second and final target is $81.00.

Entry  on   January 26 at $ 94.34 /gap higher entry
Change since picked:       - 8.88
                            /1st target hit @ 87.55 (-7.1%)
Earnings Date            01/26/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        368 thousand 
Listed on   January 26, 2010         


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 202.00 change: +1.34 stop: 206.26

It's time to pull the plug on our AAPL play. If you look at the last three weeks you'll start to see a trend of higher lows. Today's session has produced a bullish engulfing (reversal) candlestick pattern and has broken the bearish trend of lower highs from the last several days. I'm suggesting we exit early now. We knew this was a slightly aggressive trade and the plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

FYI: It's worth noting that there was a rumor circulating that AAPL would do a 4-for-1 stock split. Their last stock split was a 2:1 in February 2005 when shares were trading around $90.

Chart:

Entry  on   January 28 at $201.08 (small positions)/gap open entry
Change since picked:       + 0.92 <-- early exit @ 202.00 (+0.04%). 
Earnings Date            01/25/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         26 million  
Listed on   January 28, 2010         


Abbott Labs - ABT - close: 54.12 change: -0.21 stop: 55.05

I'm suggesting an early exit on our ABT play as well. Shares do have a slightly bearish tilt to their current sideways consolidation but I'm still concerned about overall relative strength in the biotech sector. Let's cut our losses now!

Chart:

Entry  on  February 10 at $ 52.80
Change since picked:       + 1.32 <-- exit early @ 54.12 (+2.5%)
Earnings Date            04/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        7.5 million  
Listed on  February 09, 2010         


Goldman Sachs - GS - close: 156.44 change: -1.89 stop: 156.05

GS has been trading sideways for weeks and I'm losing patience. The triggers suggested still work but I'm removing GS from the play list and placing it back on my personal watch list.

Chart:

Entry  on  February xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 147.45
Change since picked:       + 0.00       *never opened*
Earnings Date            04/13/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         17 million  
Listed on  February 00, 2010         


Intl. Bus. Mach. - IBM - close: 127.07 change: -0.52 stop: 130.11

I'm calling it quits on our aggressive IBM put. The stock does have resistance near $128 and its 50-dma but we're just not getting any follow through on the failed rallies or declines like this morning. I'm suggesting an early exit now.

Chart:

Entry  on  February 18 at $127.00
Change since picked:       + 0.07 <-- early exit @ 127.07 (+0.0%)
Earnings Date            04/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        8.2 million  
Listed on  February 03, 2010         


JPMorgan Chase - JPM - close: 40.64 change: -0.21 stop: 41.65

I'm suggesting an early exit in JPM as well. Traders continue to buy the dips. We can't seem to get any follow through on any of the recent failed rallies. Shares are starting to build support again near $40. The larger trend still has a bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows I think banks might see a short-term spike higher but it might depend on what happens in Europe and the Greece debt problem.

Chart:

Entry  on   January 26 at $ 38.44 
Change since picked:       + 2.20 <-- exit early @ 40.64 (+5.7%)
Earnings Date            04/15/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =         46 million  
Listed on   January 26, 2010         


United Technology - UTX - close: 68.67 change: +0.05 stop: 69.26

I am suggesting an early exit in UTX. We're just not seeing the follow through I expected with the failed rally near resistance. It's true, UTX does still have resistance near $69 and its 50-dma but the action recently makes it looks like odds are strong UTX will breakout higher.

Chart:

Entry  on  February 04 at $ 66.38 
Change since picked:       + 2.29 <-- early exit @ 68.67 (+3.4%)
Earnings Date            04/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        5.1 million  
Listed on  February 04, 2010         


Walter Energy - WLT - close: 78.10 change: +0.30 stop: 81.25

Traders bought the dip at $75.00 and WLT managed to rebound back into positive territory. This much intraday strength seems dangerous. If WLT is not going to produce the sort of follow through we were expecting on its failed rally I'm suggesting an early exit now!

Chart:

Entry  on  February 23 at $ 78.01 /gap open higher
Change since picked:       + 0.09 <-- early exit @ 78.10 (+0.0%)
Earnings Date            04/29/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on  February 23, 2010