Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Int'l Business Machines - IBM - close 127.58 change +2.58 stop 121.90

Target(s): 127.75, 129.90
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 132.00, 128.00, 127,00, 123.00
Current Gain/Loss: +43%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on a pullback

Comments:
9/4: Today's gain in IBM takes some of the sting out of our loss in AAPL. IBM is approaching our first target of $127.75 but we my experience a pullback early this week. Any pullback to the $126.50 to $126.25 area could be considered for new positions. However, if IBM goes higher first I suggest being quick to take profits.

9/2: We are long IBM calls as our $125.25 entry was triggered. IBM traded within yesterday's range so there is not much report. Tomorrow's employment has the potential to hurt or help us. If the report is bad and the market sells off readers may want to consider placing a tighter stop in the $123.80 area.

9/1: We closed a short winner in IBM a couple of weeks ago and we are now back with a long play. I suggest readers take advantage of the 9 point wide channel the stock has traded within over the past 4 to 5 months. Today's reversal in the broader market was either a huge head fake or the start of a bigger rally. I think we go higher before breaking the recent lows. Let's use a trigger of $125.25 to initiate long positions and target a $2.50 to $4.50 move higher over the next one to two weeks. If triggered and our two targets are reached the profit projection is +45% and +75%, respectively. Our stop is below the recent swing low at $121.90.

Current Position: Long October $130.00 CALL, entry was $1.50

Annotated Chart:

Entry on September 1, 2010
Earnings 10/18/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
Listed on August 28, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close 9.89 change +0.32 stop 9.15 *NEW*

Target(s): 10.75, 11.35, 11.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 11.85, 11.45, 11.00, 10.25, 9.45
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks

Comments:
9/4: In my opinion the odds of the broader market going higher are greater than it going lower, although there will probably be a pullback so the bulls can regain their energy. As such, I think NVDA can be bought and I suggest readers initiate long positions using a trigger of $9.72 (just above the 20-day SMA and today's low) or a breakout at $10.30 (above the 8/23 high). Ideally, it would be nice to get the lower price as I have been advocating in recent updates but either has the potential to produce a nice winning trade. Our new stop will be $9.15 initially. I've updated the targets and the play release from 8/28 below.

9/1 & 9/2: More nimble traders may want to consider bullish positions in NVDA now as the stock is almost 7% below our plan to buy it on a breakout. Officially we will wait for the breakout but if that doesn't happen in soon the play will most likely be dropped.

8/28: NVDA has been absolutely obliterated after lowering guidance earlier this year. On 8/12 the company missed earning estimates but the stock has been bought ever since. NVDA is now forming an ascending triangle on its daily and intraday charts and looks ready to break out higher. After the broader market reversal on Friday I believe we may be in for a mini rally and this should catapult NVDA up towards our targets. The plan is to buy calls if NVDA trades to $9.72 (just above the 20-day SMA) or $10.30 (above the 8/23 high). If triggered at $9.72 our first two targets are +10.5% and +17% higher. Our stop is below the stock's recent swing low and the 20-day SMA which is starting to turn higher.

Suggested Position: Buy October $10.00 CALL with a trigger of $9.72 or $10.30, current ask $0.54

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August xx
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 23.5 million
Listed on August 28, 2010


Rackspace Hosting, Inc - RAX - close 20.79 change -0.12 stop 17.95

Target(s): 20.75(hit), 21.30, 23.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 23.50, 21.40, 20.00, 19.00, 18.00
Current Gain/Loss: +30%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on a pullback

Comments:
9/4: RAX consolidated gains today and finished relatively flat after selling off early in the session. New positions can be considered on pullbacks. I've added a $21.95 target and I think this will get hit later this week after a possible dip early.

9/2: This marks the second time our first target has been hit. My comments from remain the same. Also, if tomorrow's employment report is bad readers should consider closing positions.

9/1: We are looking good here as RAX is above the key $20.00 support level and the ascending triangle that has been forming since June. Now we need follow through. If RAX spikes back up to our first target protect profits or consider taking a portion of your position off of the table.

Current Position: Buy December $21.00 CALL, entry was at $1.40

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August 25, 2010
Earnings 11/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.75 million
Listed on August 25, 2010


Stillwater Mining - SWC - close 15.28 change +0.53 stop 13.95

Target(s): 16.30, 16.95, 17.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.40 to 14.70
Current Gain/Loss: +8%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on a pullback

Comments:
9/4: We are long SWC as of today's open. The stock opened at our trigger and we are looking for a continued move higher. Readers may want to consider opening new positions on pullbacks, perhaps around $14.75. This would fill the gap higher today. Considering the impressive run in SWC over the past 4 days a pullback should be expected.

9/2: Industrial metals such as silver and palladium that SWC mines are in demand and prices are increasing. SWC has broken out and closed above a key pivot level in the $14.50 area. I suggest readers buy SWC calls if the stock trades to $15.05 which is above today's high of $14.98. If the broader market rallies on good a employment report tomorrow SWC should eventually trade up towards its 52 week highs. If the broader market sells off on a bad employment report we may consider entering at a lower price next week. There is a lot of support below. If triggered our initial stop will be $13.95.

Suggested Position: Long October $15.00 CALL, entry was at $1.20

Annotated daily chart:

Entry on September 3, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.62 million
Listed on September 2, 2010


PUT Play Updates

Abercrombie & Fitch - ANF - close 35.69 change +0.53 stop 37.40

Target(s): 35.55 (hit), 35.05, 34.60, 34.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 38.20, 37.25, 32.75, 34.00, 30.50
Current Gain/Loss: -30%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/4: My comments from below remain valid. Sellers stepped in again when ANF tried to move higher and the stock closed near its lows. The chart looks terrible but ANF should benefit from a strong broader market so I urge readers to be cautious. We don't want to be swimming against the current. I'm expecting some market weakness early this week and suggest readers use it to tighten stops or close positions to protect capital. I've narrowed the targets significantly.

9/2: There is obviously a big seller of ANF which makes me think the sell-off could continue in the stock. However, tomorrow is a wild card so I urge readers to be cautious with positions if the broader market rally continues. I've tightened the stop and adjusted the targets.

Current Position: Long October $34.00 PUT, entry was at $2.10

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August 25, 2010
Earnings: 11/11/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million
Listed on August 24, 2010


NUCOR Corp. - NUE - close 38.68 change +0.24 stop 39.25

Target(s): 38.35, 38.10, 37.60, 36.05 (hit),
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 43.00, 40.30, 37.00, 35.00
Option Current Gain/Loss: -53%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/4: It is time to look for an exit in NUE. After the stock hit our first target of $36.05 on 8/25 it has surged +8%. We have to respect this move and step aside if our stop is hit. More aggressive traders may want to consider a looser stop up near $41 but if NUE marches higher before a pullback your option premium will get crushed. Our official stop is above the 50-day SMA which is where NUE closed on Friday. In addition, NUE has broken and closed above a trend line from May (see dashed line) and is sitting just underneath a secondary trend line from 6/14. This is natural spot for NUE to retrace some of the recent gains which is when I suggest looking for an exit. I have provided three near term targets to consider. Be ready to protect capital on pullback because it could come quick.

9/2: My comments below remain the same. I've adjusted the immediate target and tightened the stop, which is above the 50-day and downtrend line. This is the place for pullback but if we don't get it NUE could breakout higher so I suggest getting out of the way and protecting capital.

9/1: I've added a $37.40 as a target and suggest readers begin to look for an exit in NUE. The stock's 20-day, 50-day, and downtrend line are all just overhead which should provide a pullback and exit point, even it is a loss.

8/31: After hitting our target of $36.05 on 8/25 NUE has traded within a $1 range between $36.40 and $37.40. NUE is forming a bear flag and should break lower but the stock and broader market are simply not cooperating. Our stop is above the 20 and 50-day SMA's and a downtrend line. Readers should consider closing positions on any further weakness to protect profits or use a tighter stop to protect capital if there is a more meaningful bounce.

Current Position: Long October $35.00 PUT, entry was at $0.96

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August 20, 2010
Earnings Date 10/21/10
Average Daily Volume 2.9 million
Listed on August 19, 2010


United Technologies - UTX - close 68.26 change +0.82 stop 69.11

Target(s): 67.65, 67.05, 66.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 69.00, 68.50 67.50, 66.50, 64.75,
Current Gain/Loss: -33% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/4: UTX closed just below its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. I'm expecting the stock to turn back lower here but I don't the selling will last long so I suggest readers begin to look for a exit. We have to respect this week's turnaround in the market and use weakness to close positions, even if that means a loss. I've provided three near term targets readers should use to consider closing positions or tightening stops as they approach.

9/1: We got filled at the higher trigger in UTX so we are now long October $65 puts for $1.60. Considering the turnaround in equities today I suggest readers use caution in this position. I've narrowed the targets to account for the higher fill and suggest readers consider taking profits or tightening stops to protect them at these levels.

8/31: A strengthening US dollar is bad for multinational companies who derive income from abroad. After a sell-off in the dollar over the past couple of months it looks poised to break out higher and UTX looks poised to break down lower. The plan is to short UTX if it breaks down to $64.50 but I would also suggest shorting UTX if it trades up to close the gap from 8/24 at $67.00. If we get filled at the higher price our stop will be $69.11. If we get filled at the lower price our stop will $67.61.

Current Position: Long October $65.00 PUT, entry was at $1.60

Annotated Chart:

Entry on September 1, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million
Listed on August 31, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Cameron International - CAM - close 38.92 change +0.29 stop 37.50

Target(s): 38.40 (hit), 38.95 (hit), 39.15 (hit)
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 45.00, 42.50, 41.00, 38.75, 36.00
Final Gain/Loss: -10.5%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/4: Our final target was hit in CAM today and we are flat the position for a -10% loss. We've squeezed as much out of the position as possible and it is time to walk away with a loss. The sad thing is the price of the stock is higher than our entry so our position clearly suffered from time decay. Nonetheless, our final target was just below the 200-day SMA which is where CAM turned back down today. The stock remains in an uptrend and can probably be bought on a pullback towards the primary trend line.

9/2: Tomorrow's tone will be set early with the employment report before the bell. Our stop is in if there is a sell-off, if not CAM should hit our final targets and I suggest closing the position to prevent further time decay which is really going to accelerate over the next two weeks.

9/1: The whipsaws continue. Another target was hit in CAM today but this time there could be follow through so I am content giving this a little room to work. I think it is prudent to close positions this week regardless of what happens to prevent further time decay. I've adjusted the targets with $39.35 as the final target underneath the 200-day SMA.

Closed Position: Long September $40.00 CALL at $0.85, entry was $0.95

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings Date 11/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.6 million
Listed on August 14, 2010


FMC Technologies, Inc - FTI - close 66.58 change +0.67 stop 63.75

Target(s): 66.25 (hit), 66.95 (hit), 68.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 69.00, 65.50, 62.40, 59.00
Final Gain/Loss: +77.2%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/4: Our patience has paid off with FTI and we have closed the position for a +77% gain. The chart of FTI is strong and if there is a strong market this stock may go retest its 52-week highs. Pullbacks down to the $63 to $64 level can probably be bought. This is just above the 20-day SMA and upward trend line. If that happens readers may see this play again.

9/2: FTI looks on the verge of breaking out but tomorrow's employment report will likely determine the fate of the breakout. Our first target has been hit and we have a +30% gain. Protect profits. Our targets above have been adjusted slightly down and the stop has been raised to protect against a hard reversal.

9/1: We now have a +23% gain in FTI and are back on track with options expiring in October. $65.25 has been reached once and I suggest not letting the stock reverse on us again. I've added a target a of $66.25 which will fill a long standing gap from 5/5.

Closed Position: Long October $70.00 CALL at $1.95, entry was at $1.10

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings 10/27/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
Listed on August 14, 2010


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Apple, Inc - AAPL - close 258.77 change +6.60 stop 256.50

Target(s): 246.50, 244.00, 240.00 (hit), 237.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 266, 258, 256, 246, 240, 231, 235
Final Gain/Loss: -71%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/4: On Friday 8/27 AAPL reached a low of $235.56 and this trade was close to reaching our targets. However, APPL has since bounced $23 (10%) without pause. I have been warning readers for several days to strategically exit AAPL and offered possible levels on some sort of pullback, but the stock cut through all of its moving averages and primary downtrend line like they weren't even there. It was just Tuesday of this week when the broader market, and AAPL for that matter, looked ready to step off of a cliff but it wasn't meant to be (the stock was forming a bear pennant). In any event, this is a disappointing loser and we have closed the position for a loss. AAPL is now testing the backside of its broken primary uptrend line from the March 2009 lows. Some sort of retracement back to its moving averages or to fill a gap higher is most likely going to happen. And once AAPL regains its energy, and if the broader market is strong, AAPL could easily head back up towards its 52-week highs.

9/2: My comments below remain the same. Readers should consider exiting this position to preserve capital, especially if the broader market rallies on the employment report. If that happens, taking the loss is the right thing to do.

9/1: AAPL historically sells off in the ensuing days after their conference but the strong broader market reversal today has me very concerned. Readers should consider exiting positions to preserve capital. I've added 2 near term targets that are support areas and I suggest tightening stops or exiting positions as they approach.

8/31: AAPL has not been able to make it above the $246 level since breaking through it last week. The stock has been a strong performer the last couple of days, probably because of the hype surrounding a "music-themed" press conference tomorrow that Apple is hosting. Rumors have it that the company will announce a new iPod Touch and new iPod Nano at the event. Although there are no confirmed reports of any new products, Apple has repeatedly introduced new iPod models at their September press conference. This could produce a pop in the stock so readers may want to exit positions ahead of the conference. However, if the conference fails to impress the stock could experience a set-back. The targets above should be considered as exit points and readers may want to consider tighter stops in the $249 to $252 area. The 20-day SMA is $250.27 which should keep bounces in check but we are going to need to see broader market weakness for AAPL to reach our targets.

Closed Position: Long October $230.00 PUT @ $2.00, entry was at $6.90

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August 24, 2010
Earnings: 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 23 million
Listed on August 14, 2010


Occidental Petrol. - OXY - close: 78.32 change: +0.48 stop: 78.85

Target(s): 76.60, 75.80, 74.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 75-74.00, 70.00, 65.00
Final Gain/Loss: -47.8%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/4: Our stop was hit by 6 cents on Friday so we are out of OXY with a loss. The stock has closed above two downtrend lines and the 50-day SMA. There will inevitably be a retracement from the +8% rip over the past 4 days but ultimately OXY looks like it is headed higher as the stock has hung on to a pivotal support level at $72.00. Retracements to the $76.50 level or the 20-day SMA may provide intriguing long set-ups with tight stops.

9/2: The melt-up continues in OXY and we are close to being stopped out. My comments from below remain the same. The 50-day SMA and the 8/10 is our last line of defense. If OXY moves above these we need to step aside. I've raised the stop a 24 cents due to an unfilled gap in the area.

9/1: OXY ripped +5% higher today and closed right on a downtrend line, while the 50-day SMA is just overhead. If the stock breaks through these areas we need to honor our stops and step aside. However, I would be looking for a pullback to exit the position. I have provided two logical near term targets above.

8/31: OXY continued its slide today and has almost retraced all of the gains from Friday. We have small gains in the trade and suggest readers use weakness to consider closing positions. $72.25, $71.60, and $70.25 are the immediate targets. $72.25 is near last week's lows which is where OXY found support. $71.60 is just above the 52-week low at $71.44.

Closed Position: Long OXY November $70.00 PUT at $1.80, entry was at $3.45

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August 25, 2010
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume 4.4 million
Listed on August 7th, 2010