Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

ConocoPhillips - COP - close 54.73 change +0.41 stop 52.30

Target(s): 55.85, 56.90, 57.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 58.50, 57.00, 53.00 to 53.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/9: COP is consolidating above support, all of its moving averages, and is maintaining and upward trend line from 8/31. The broader market is at resistance and is probably due for a pullback so we may need to exhibit a little patience. However, if we breakout higher first I suggest readers be quick to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. I've adjusted the targets down slightly to account for this scenario.

9/8: COP rebounded today after yesterday's sell-off and has held above its 50-day SMA, while also closing above all other major moving averages. I've adjusted our targets down slightly. If our $57.25 target is reached the profit projection is +53%.

9/7: We are long November COP calls as the stock hit our trigger in early trading. Oil sold off today on the back of a better than +1% rally in the US Dollar. We are going to be right or right out of this trade. COP is sitting on its 50-day SMA and also has solid support down to $53.00. If this support is broken we'll step aside. New positions can be opened with tight stops below. Our official stop has been lowered just underneath the 200-day SMA.

Suggested Position: Buy November $57.50 CALL, entry was at $1.05

Entry on September xx
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million
Listed on September 4, 2010


Int'l Business Machines - IBM - close 126.36 change +0.28 stop 124.25 *NEW*

Target(s): 127.40, 129.90
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 132.00, 128.00, 127.50, 123.00
Current Gain/Loss: +6%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/9: IBM has traded to just below our first target in 3 of the past 4 sessions, but keeps getting smacked down near some moving averages and resistance at $127.50. The stock is making higher lows but hasn't been able to breakout. I've lowered the first target 35 cents and suggest we take profits or tighten stops at this level if it is reached tomorrow. I would rather book a profit than sit through a pullback. I've also tightened the stop to

9/8: IBM is maintaining an upward intraday trend line that began on 8/31 and is also testing the backside of a broken intraday downtrend line that began on 8/31. There is support at current levels and any broader market strength should get IBM moving towards our targets.

9/7: IBM closed near Friday's lows which was a gap higher from Thursday. If the stock does not bounce here it could be headed to $124.60 area. New positions can be considered now or on any further weakness.

Current Position: Long October $130.00 CALL, entry was $1.50

Entry on September 1, 2010
Earnings 10/18/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
Listed on August 28, 2010


iShares Russell 2000 - IWM - close 63.52 change +0.04 stop 59.80

Target(s): 66.50, 67.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 68.00, 67.00, 64.50, 62.00
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks

Comments:
9/9: IWM is backing off from its 200-day SMA near $64.50. Our trigger to enter long positions at $62.50 is below the 50-day and above the 20-day moving averages. I like the long set-up, now we need to get triggered. More nimble traders may want to try to time an entry near $62.00 which is closer to the 20-day SMA which is starting to turn up.

9/8: We are waiting for our trigger of $62.50 to enter long positions in IWM. We are going to need a strong down day which could come at anytime, perhaps after tomorrow's jobless claims report. I suggest being ready to take advantage of the dip. My comments from below remain the same. Note: I incorrectly listed the wrong November strike price in the play release last night. It has been corrected and I apologize for the error.

9/7: I believe any further weakness in the Russell 2000 and broader market present buying opportunities for an early fall rally and into the mid-term elections, of which will probably result in gridlock in Washington which is generally good for equities. Fund managers will begin reallocating their portfolios and cash on the sidelines should be put to work. Let's use a trigger of $62.50 to initiate long positions in IWM which is near the 38.2% retracement from the lows on 8/24 to the highs on 9/3. Our initial stop will be $59.80. Our targets are near the June and July highs.

Suggested Position: Buy November $65.00 CALL, current ask $2.49, estimated ask at entry $2.05

Entry on September xx
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 60 million
Listed on September 7, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close 10.18 change -0.14 stop 9.15

Target(s): 10.75, 11.35, 11.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 11.85, 11.45, 11.00, 10.25, 10.00 9.45
Current Gain/Loss: -8.3%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/9: NVDA remains above $10.00 and its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. Any pullback to these areas would be good long set-ups for new entries.

9/8: NVDA hit our breakout trigger to enter long positions. The stock has now officially printed a higher high which confirms the higher low made last week. The stock has closed above its 50-day SMA and its 20-day SMA is rising. We also have an upward trend line as a good reference point to manage the trade going forward. I think pullbacks can be bought for readers who do not have open positions. $10.00 is a solid support level but I'm not convinced NVDA will trade there unless broader market weakness surfaces in earnest, which is certainly a possibility.

9/7: We are waiting to be triggered in NVDA. The stock closed above its 50-day SMA for the first time since 4/15. If the market rebounds tomorrow we will most likely get triggered on the breakout.

Current Position: Long October $10.00 CALL, entry was at $0.72

Entry on August xx
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 23.5 million
Listed on August 28, 2010


Rackspace Hosting, Inc - RAX - close 21.00 change +0.57 stop 18.95 *NEW*

Target(s): 20.75(hit), 21.30, 21.95, 23.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 23.50, 21.40, 20.00, 19.50, 19.00, 18.00
Current Gain/Loss: +30%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
9/9: We currently have a +30% gain in RAX. Let's move our stop up to $18.95 which is just below the 200-day SMA and primary upward trend line. The stock is forming an ascending triangle over the past couple of weeks and a breakout, coupled with broader market strength, could catapult RAX to our more aggressive targets. If this happens be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/8: RAX double bottomed with yesterday's lows and closed almost +2% higher on the day. We are looking for a continuation of the recent move higher and if the broader market cooperates I'm looking for RAX to hit our 2nd target of $21.30 and possibly $21.95 this week. As these targets approach be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/7: RAX drifted lower all day and broke an intraday trend line. However, RAX closed above the pivotal $20.00 support level and also has all of its major moving averages below. New positions can be considered now, especially on any further weakness. The next level of support below $20.00 is near $19.50.

9/4: RAX consolidated gains today and finished relatively flat after selling off early in the session. New positions can be considered on pullbacks. I've added a $21.95 target and I think this will get hit later this week after a possible dip early.

Current Position: Buy December $21.00 CALL, entry was at $1.40

Entry on August 25, 2010
Earnings 11/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.75 million
Listed on August 25, 2010


Stillwater Mining - SWC - close 14.41 change -0.28 stop 13.90 *NEW*

Target(s): 15.45, 15.90, 16.30, 16.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.40 to 14.70
Current Gain/Loss: -33%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/9: SWC is at a critical support level and if it breaks I am concerned SWC could head towards $13.00. As such, I suggest we tighten the stop to $13.90 and step aside if it gets hit. I've lowered the targets to take advantage of higher highs should SWC turn back higher from here.

9/8: SWC is consolidating recent gains and is maintaining an upward trend line that began on 8/25. The stock has strong support all the way down to the $14.00 level. We're looking for SWC to find support soon and make another higher high.

9/7: SWC sold off and closed its gap higher from Thursday to Friday. The stock closed above its key support level of $14.40 to $14.70 and is maintaining an upward trend line since 8/25. New positions can be considered at current levels. I've moved the stop to just below the 20-day SMA.

9/4: We are long SWC as of today's open. The stock opened at our trigger and we are looking for a continued move higher. Readers may want to consider opening new positions on pullbacks, perhaps around $14.75. This would fill the gap higher today. Considering the impressive run in SWC over the past 4 days a pullback should be expected.

Current Position: Long October $15.00 CALL, entry was at $1.20

Entry on September 3, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.62 million
Listed on September 2, 2010


Vale SA - VALE - close 27.61 change +0.18 stop 25.80

Target(s): 28.80, 29.25, 29.70
Key Support/Resistance Areas: To Follow
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

Comments:
9/9: We are waiting to be triggered at $27.25 which is just above the 50-day SMA and Tuesday's lows. I'm looking for this area as a bounce point in VALE back up towards its August highs. NOTE: I incorrectly listed the wrong monthly option as November in the play release last night. It should be October and has been corrected. I apologize for the error.

9/8: VALE is an international basic materials producer. Demand is increasing from emerging markets and various other developed countries whose economies are growing at a more rapid pace than in the US. RBC cut VALE to sector perform in the pre-market on 9/2 and the stock has lost about -5% since. However, VALE is maintaining two upward trend lines and bounced hard off its 50-day SMA on Monday. I suggest we use the weakness to our advantage by initiating long positions if VALE trades to $27.25. Our stop will be $25.80 with our primary targets near the stock's August highs. NOTE: I have chosen a further out of the money call than normal to reduce risk on the trade should the stock break lower.

Suggested Position: Buy October $29.00 CALL, current ask $0.62, estimated ask at entry $0.52

Entry on September xx
Earnings 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17 million
Listed on September 8, 2010


PUT Play Updates

Abercrombie & Fitch - ANF - close 34.33 change -0.16 stop 35.65 *NEW*

Target(s): 35.05 (hit), 34.60 (hit), 34.20 (hit), 33.55
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 38.20, 37.25, 32.75, 34.00, 30.50
Current Gain/Loss: -11%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/9: ANF hit our third target and we have one more. We have a tight stop at $35.65 and the broader market looks like it could pullback here. If it does ANF should head lower in earnest. Our final target is $33.55 which we will use to close positions if we are not stopped out first. Continue to use weakness to close positions.

9/8: ANF came within 9 cents of our $34.05 target so this has been raised to $34.20. ANF posted its lowest since 7/21 on Wednesday and the stock looks ready to make another leg down, but we are going to need to see broader market weakness. I suggest readers continue to use weakness to close positions or tighten stops. I've lowered the stop $35.65 and adjusted the final two targets.

9/7: I've lowered the stop in ANF to $36.20 and added a target of $33.25. I suggest readers continue to use weakness to close positions or tighten stops. Current Position: Long October $34.00 PUT, entry was at $2.10

Entry on August 25, 2010
Earnings: 11/11/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.5 million
Listed on August 24, 2010


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

United Technologies - UTX - close 68.62 change +0.15 stop 69.11

Target(s): 68.00, 67.25, 66.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 69.00, 68.50 67.50, 66.50, 64.75,
Current Gain/Loss: -43.7%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/9: UTX gapped above our stop today. When this happens I suggest readers devise a gap rule that moves the stop above the opening 15 or 30 minutes range. This allows you to measure the true strength or weakness in the gap and often times keeps you in the trade looking for a better exit. This worked perfectly today in UTX and I would expect some sort of pullback here. Nonetheless, I didn't expect the gap higher today and didn't relay the gap rule instructions so we are flat the position for a loss. I have been urging readers to use weakness to close positions so this may be the time. There are three immediate targets above that may be considered logical bounce points in UTX. I would not be complacent though and be ready to close positions on weakness.

9/8: We need UTX to break below $68.25 and if it does we should get a quick pullback which I'm suggesting we use to close positions or tighten stops to protect capital. I've adjusted the immediate targets up just a tad. Our stop is in the right place which could get hit on any further strength tomorrow.

9/7: UTX came within 2 cents of our immediate target in early trading. My comments from below remain the same. I'm suggesting we use weakness to close positions or tighten stops to protect capital.

9/4: UTX closed just below its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. I'm expecting the stock to turn back lower here but I don't think the selling will last long so I suggest readers begin to look for a exit. We have to respect this week's turnaround in the market and use weakness to close positions, even if that means a loss. I've provided three near term targets readers should use to consider closing positions or tightening stops as they approach.

9/1: We got filled at the higher trigger in UTX so we are now long October $65 puts for $1.60. Considering the turnaround in equities today I suggest readers use caution in this position. I've narrowed the targets to account for the higher fill and suggest readers consider taking profits or tightening stops to protect them at these levels.

Closed Position: Long October $65.00 PUT at $0.90, entry was at $1.60

Annotated Chart:

Entry on September 1, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million
Listed on August 31, 2010