Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

ConocoPhillips - COP - close 55.36 change -0.20 stop 52.30

Target(s): 55.85 (hit), 56.25, 56.90, 57.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 58.50, 57.00, 54.00, 53.00 to 53.50
Current Gain/Loss: +10%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, only on pullbacks

Comments:
9/16: COP hit our first target of $55.85 and backed off. Positions could have been closed for a +25% gain. COP and the broader market certainly look due for a pullback, however, they could just as easily breakout. Regardless, at this point pullbacks appear they will be bought so we are leaving this position open with options that expire in November. I've added another near term target and will be looking to take profits on breakouts, especially if there is not a pullback first.

9/14: COP traded to within 12 cents of reaching our first target today before closing about 40 cents lower. Our current gain is +10% but it appears the broader market is going to pullback here so readers may want to consider exiting positions now if they do not want to endure a pullback. However, I do believe the pullback will be quick, plus our options expire in November so I am not concerned about time decay yet. If we do happen to go higher first I suggest readers be quick to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. The stock has solid support all the way down to $54.00

9/13: COP is nearing our first target. Considering the overbought conditions in the broader market readers should considering taking profits or tightening stops to protect them at this level.

Current Position: Buy November $57.50 CALL, entry was at $1.05

Entry on September 7, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million
Listed on September 4, 2010


iShares Russell 2000 - IWM - close 64.94 change -0.41 stop 59.80

Target(s): 66.50, 67.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 68.00, 67.00, 64.50, 62.00
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks

Comments:
9/16: Let's raise the trigger to $63.55 which is just above the 50-day SMA. I view weakness in IWM as a buying opportunity and the rising 50-day is a good entry as IWM will test it for the first time since it began turning up. Patience will pay off for us. I'll adjust the stop once we are in the positions.

9/14: We are going to get a pullback and our trigger to enter is just above IWM's 50-day SMA, which should act as a launching point for a move back towards recent highs. I suggest readers be prepared to buy the dip which could easily happen in the next day or two.

9/13: IWM has left the train station without us and is now well above our trigger to enter long positions. I still like the play on a pullback but the question is how far will it come. This could get tricky considering its OPEX week but I do believe a pullback to the 50-day SMA will hold. Let's raise the trigger to $63.15. The 50-day is currently just under $63.00.

9/9 & 9/11: IWM is backing off from its 200-day SMA near $64.50. Our trigger to enter long positions at $62.50 is below the 50-day and above the 20-day moving averages. I like the long set-up, now we need to get triggered. More nimble traders may want to try to time an entry near $62.00 which is closer to the 20-day SMA which is starting to turn up.

Suggested Position: Buy November $65.00 CALL, current ask $3.09, estimated ask at entry $2.20

Entry on September xx
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 60 million
Listed on September 7, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close 10.56 change +0.00 stop 9.55

Target(s): 10.75 (hit), 11.10, 11.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 11.85, 11.45, 11.00, 10.25, 10.00 9.45
Current Gain/Loss: +17%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on a pullback

Comments:
9/16: NVDA could easily breakout tomorrow as RIMM and Oracle earning's reports may help boost the tech sector. If so, $11.10 may get hit which is just below the 100-day SMA. This is a good area to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. If this target is hit our profit will be approaching 80% to +90%.

9/14: I like the potential of this trade but we may need to exhibit some patience with NVDA on a pullback. If we head higher prior to pulling back be ready to take profits or tighten stops. Our $10.75 target was reached yesterday and still remains a valid target.

9/13: NVDA surged +5.66% today and looks poised to test its 100-day SMA which is declining. We have a +33% gain so protecting profits is advised. I've raised the stop to $9.55 and lowered the 2nd target $11.10. If we head higher prior to pulling back be ready to take profits or tighten stops.

9/9 & 9/11: NVDA remains above $10.00 and its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. Any pullback to these areas would be good long set-ups for new entries.

Current Position: Long October $10.00 CALL, entry was at $0.72

Entry on September 8, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 23.5 million
Listed on August 28, 2010


Stillwater Mining - SWC - close 15.81 change +0.03 stop 14.20 *NEW*

Target(s): 15.45 (hit), 15.90 (hit), 16.30, 16.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.40 to 14.70
Current Gain/Loss: +21%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, only on pullbacks

Comments:
9/16: SWC looks great but I suggest readers begin to look for an exit to protect profits, especially on further strength before a pullback. Our second target was hit today and $16.30 looks like the next stop. I've raised the stop to $14.20 but tighter stops could be considered between $14.90 and $15.25.

9/14: SWC traded all the way up to our first target today before backing off. The stock continues to look bullish but I am concerned about a broader market pullback and the double top the stock made with the 9/7 high. However, SWC gained +3.28% today and mining stocks can do well if stocks fall. Further, with precious/industrial metal commodity prices rising miners are benefiting. Caution is advised.

9/11: I've lowered the stop 12 cents to 13.78 which is just underneath the 20-day moving average. The 14.40 level is the logical place for SWC to bounce but we are going to need the broader market strength to continue. My comments from below remain the same.

Current Position: Long October $15.00 CALL, entry was at $1.20

Entry on September 3, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.62 million
Listed on September 2, 2010


Transocean Ltd - RIG - close 59.86 change +0.08 stop 53.40

Target(s): 62.95, 64.50, 66.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 55.50, 58.35, 63.90, 64.90
Current Gain/Loss: -7%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/15 RIG is forming an ascending triangle on multiple different time frames and looks poised to breakout. We have some time with November options and expect RIG to shoot higher in the coming days/weeks. My comments from below have not changed.

9/14: We may need to exhibit some patience here as RIG is consolidating gains. The volume pattern looks great as the pullbacks are on lighter volume than the breakout. Broader market weakness will most likely pull RIG down but I believe the dips will be bought. Our options expire in November so I'm not worried about time decay yet. I like new positions on any further weakness.

9/11: RIG exploded on Friday after BP's new CEO said that BP does not intend to seek compensation from RIG for the oil spill disaster unless the DOJ finds gross negligence on their part. Reports from FBR and BofA/Merrill state that they don't believe the DOJ will be able prove gross negligence. RIG is also a cheap stock trading at a PE below 7. Technically, the stock broke out of a downward trend line on heavy volume that started on May 27th. The stock has made a series higher lows and higher highs which I think will continue. I suggest we open positions at current levels. More nimble traders may want to time an entry on a retracement of some of Friday's gains or a breakout above Friday's highs. Our initial stop will be $53.40.

Current Position: Long November $65.00 CALL, entry was at $2.25

Entry on September 13, 2010
Earnings 11/3/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


Vale SA - VALE - close 28.07 change -0.01 stop 25.80

Target(s): 28.38 (hit), 28.65, 28.90, 29.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 29.30, 28.45, 28.00, 27.25
Current Gain/Loss: +16%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/16: I like the support VALE has at current levels and just below and with broader market strength the stock should hit our more aggressive targets. My comments from below remain the same.

9/14: VALE came within 4 cents of our primary second target before backing off and closing near its lows of the day. Options could have been closed for about 85 to 90 cents on the surge higher this morning which would have been a +70% to +80% gain. Nonetheless, our current gain is +44%. It looks like VALE is due for more pullback so readers should consider protecting profits. I do believe the dips will get bought and VALE should head back higher once the selling subsides. I've adjusted the targets and suggest we close positions as targets approach again.

9/13: Vale surged +3.39% higher today and our first target has been hit. I'm looking for $28.75 and suggest we close positions or tighten stops at this level.

9/11: VALE traded right down $27.25 and bounced so we are now long October 29.00 calls at 50 cents. I've added a lower target right underneath the 200-day SMA. My primary targets on this trade are the first two. If the first target is reached our 50 cent options should be worth about 80 cents which is a +60% gain. As these targets approach I suggest we keep a tight leash on the trade get out with a winner.

NOTE: I have chosen a further out of the money call than normal to reduce risk on the trade should the stock break lower.

Current Position: Long October $29.00 CALL at, entry was at $0.50

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17 million
Listed on September 8, 2010


PUT Play Updates

Freeport-McMoRan - FCX - close 81.73 change +0.33 stop 84.55

Target(s): 78.00, 76.80, 75.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 84.25, 76.50, 75.00
Current Gain/Loss: -20%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/16: I'm concerned the market could break higher tomorrow after good earnings reports from RIMM and Oracle and FCX will most likely go with it. FCX has gone up in a straight line with little to pause since 8/25. I suppose the stock can go higher but the stock remains in a tough spot. Whether it breaks higher or lower I believe both scenarios will reverse rather quickly, i.e. dips will get bought and breakouts will be sold. I believe FCX will see $78.00 at some point in the coming week but it could spike higher first, of which would set-up a better shorting opportunity.

9/14: FCX has gained nearly +20% since its low on 8/25 less than 3 weeks ago. The stock has surged higher, virtually in a straight line with little to no pause. FCX has rallied right into its primary downtrend line from its January highs and also closed at a prior resistance level from mid-March. This type of move is not sustainable and I suggest readers open short positions at current levels and play for a retracement of the stock's recent gains. Our primary target is $76.80 which is about -5.5% lower than current levels, and also just above a 38.2% retracement from the 8/25 lows to today's highs. For options traders, if this target is reached it should produce a gain of approximately +60% to +65%. This could be a quick trade and a good strategy would be to immediately place a "good til cancelled" or "one cancels the other" order immediately after the position is entered and be ready to take profits or get out should our stop get hit.

Current Position: Long October $75.00 PUT, entry was at $1.75

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on September 14, 2010


McDonald's Corp. - MCD - close 74.80 change +0.09 stop 75.75

Target(s): 73.25, 72.05, 70.90
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 75.35, 73.60, 71.50, 70.50
Current Gain/Loss: -22%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/16: After looking terrible on Tuesday and Wednesday morning MCD has recovered all of its losses and is now drifting higher. I believe our stop is in the right place but caution is advised.

9/14: MCD is headed lower and I suggest readers begin to look for exits on any further weakness. My comments from below have not changed.

9/13: MCD lost -0.59% while the broader market surged higher today. The stock traded right up to $74.30 and sold off hard before bouncing late in the day. I'm looking for MCD break through its 20-day and head towards its 50-day SMA but we are most likely going to need to see a broader market pullback. I've added a target of $73.25 which will fill a gap higher on 9/1. This should give us nearly a +50% gain and is a good place to consider taking profits or tightening stops to protect them.

9/11: I expected MCD to fill some of the its gap lower on Thursday but was a little surprised the stock traded to $75.00. On the hourly chart MCD closed right on its 20 and 50 period moving averages which it is testing from below. This is a logical spot for the stock to turn lower but we will most likely need broader market weakness. If MCD heads higher first a nice short set-up would be in the $75.30 area. This would create a bearish head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart.

Current Position: Long October $72.50 PUT, entry was at $0.84

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings: 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6 million
Listed on September 9, 2010


SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY - close 113.05 change -0.07 stop 116.25

Target(s): 110.65, 109.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 115.00, 113.00, 110.60, 50-day, 20-day
Current Gain/Loss: -17%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/16: The S&P 500 looks like it may breakout higher tomorrow on the heels of favorable earnings reports from RIMM and Oracle. This position is meant to be a hedge against our longs but we could experience another short squeeze. Readers may want to consider exiting SPY early and trying to re-enter a short position at a higher price. Regardless, I believe breakouts will be sold into and dips will be bought. I'm looking for a retracement in SPY over the next week or so to fill some gaps and retest its converging 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA's from above. This is when we will close the position and consider a new long entry.

9/14: SPY closed the day just about where it began. My comments from the play release remain the same. We are looking for the S&P 500 to turn lower here, fill a few open gaps higher, and test its rising 20-day and 50-day SMA's from above.

9/13: The market is overbought and needs a healthy pullback to regain its energy. SPY has rallied right into resistance from its June and August highs. I'm looking for the S&P 500 to turn lower here, fill a few open gaps, and test its rising 20-day and 50-day SMA's from above. I suggest readers open short positions at current levels and look for a $2 to $3 pullback in the coming days (equivalent to 20 to 30 S&P 500 points). Our profit targets should produce +40% and +60% gains.

Current Position: Long October $109.00 PUT, entry was at $1.56

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 198 million
Listed on September 13, 2010