Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

ConocoPhillips - COP - close 55.27 change -0.09 stop 52.30

Target(s): 55.85 (hit), 56.25, 56.90, 57.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 58.50, 57.00, 54.00, 53.00 to 53.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, only on pullbacks

Comments:
9/18: Not much has changed in COP this week. We are looking to take profits on a breakout, otherwise we may need to exhibit some patience on a pullback with options that expire in November. My comments below remain valid.

9/16: COP hit our first target of $55.85 and backed off. Positions could have been closed for a +25% gain. COP and the broader market certainly look due for a pullback, however, they could just as easily breakout. Regardless, at this point pullbacks appear they will be bought so we are leaving this position open with options that expire in November. I've added another near term target and will be looking to take profits on breakouts, especially if there is not a pullback first.

9/14: COP traded to within 12 cents of reaching our first target today before closing about 40 cents lower. Our current gain is +10% but it appears the broader market is going to pullback here so readers may want to consider exiting positions now if they do not want to endure a pullback. However, I do believe the pullback will be quick, plus our options expire in November so I am not concerned about time decay yet. If we do happen to go higher first I suggest readers be quick to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. The stock has solid support all the way down to $54.00

9/13: COP is nearing our first target. Considering the overbought conditions in the broader market readers should considering taking profits or tightening stops to protect them at this level.

Current Position: Buy November $57.50 CALL, entry was at $1.05

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 7, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million
Listed on September 4, 2010


iShares Russell 2000 - IWM - close 65.21 change +0.27 stop 59.80

Target(s): 66.50, 67.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 68.00, 67.00, 64.50, 62.00
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks

Comments:
9/18: I continue to like IWM on a pullback but I won't chase it higher as it is a higher risk situation. My comments from below remain the same.

9/16: Let's raise the trigger to $63.55 which is just above the 50-day SMA. I view weakness in IWM as a buying opportunity and the rising 50-day is a good entry as IWM will test it for the first time since it began turning up. Patience will pay off for us. I'll adjust the stop once we are in the positions.

9/14: We are going to get a pullback and our trigger to enter is just above IWM's 50-day SMA, which should act as a launching point for a move back towards recent highs. I suggest readers be prepared to buy the dip which could easily happen in the next day or two.

Suggested Position: Buy November $65.00 CALL, current ask $3.09, estimated ask at entry $2.20

Annotated chart:

Entry on September xx
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 60 million
Listed on September 7, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close 10.55 change -0.01 stop 9.55

Target(s): 10.75 (hit), 11.10, 11.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 11.85, 11.45, 11.00, 10.25, 10.00 9.45
Current Gain/Loss: +17%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on a pullback

Comments:
9/18: We are either going to breakout higher or get a pullback this week. If we breakout first I suggest taking profits or tightening stops to protect them as it could be short lived. Nothing has changed from my comments below. All of the above targets remain valid.

9/16: NVDA could easily breakout tomorrow as RIMM and Oracle earning's reports may help boost the tech sector. If so, $11.10 may get hit which is just below the 100-day SMA. This is a good area to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. If this target is hit our profit will be approaching 80% to +90%.

9/14: I like the potential of this trade but we may need to exhibit some patience with NVDA on a pullback. If we head higher prior to pulling back be ready to take profits or tighten stops. Our $10.75 target was reached yesterday and still remains a valid target.

9/13: NVDA surged +5.66% today and looks poised to test its 100-day SMA which is declining. We have a +33% gain so protecting profits is advised. I've raised the stop to $9.55 and lowered the 2nd target $11.10. If we head higher prior to pulling back be ready to take profits or tighten stops.

9/9 & 9/11: NVDA remains above $10.00 and its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. Any pullback to these areas would be good long set-ups for new entries.

Current Position: Long October $10.00 CALL, entry was at $0.72

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 8, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 23.5 million
Listed on August 28, 2010


Stillwater Mining - SWC - close 15.27 change -0.54 stop 14.20 *NEW*

Target(s): 15.45 (hit), 15.90 (hit), 16.30, 16.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.40 to 14.70, 15.00
Current Gain/Loss: -4%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, only on pullbacks

Comments:
9/18: Our $15.90 target has been hit in each of the past two sessions and SWC lost it today, closing down -3%. Taking profits was the right thing to do. However, the bullish case remains in tact as these pullbacks have continued to get bought. There is support near current levels and the stock is maintaining an upward trend line. Conservative traders may want to consider exiting if mining stocks are weak early this week. Our stop is below the rising 20-day SMA which SWC has not touched since it began to turn higher.

9/16: SWC looks great but I suggest readers begin to look for an exit to protect profits, especially on further strength before a pullback. Our second target was hit today and $16.30 looks like the next stop. I've raised the stop to $14.20 but tighter stops could be considered between $14.90 and $15.25.

9/14: SWC traded all the way up to our first target today before backing off. The stock continues to look bullish but I am concerned about a broader market pullback and the double top the stock made with the 9/7 high. However, SWC gained +3.28% today and mining stocks can do well if stocks fall. Further, with precious/industrial metal commodity prices rising miners are benefiting. Caution is advised.

Current Position: Long October $15.00 CALL, entry was at $1.20

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 3, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.62 million
Listed on September 2, 2010


Transocean Ltd - RIG - close 60.16 change +0.30 stop 53.40

Target(s): 62.95, 64.50, 66.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 55.50, 58.35, 63.90, 64.90
Current Gain/Loss: -7%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/18: RIG is so close to breaking higher and is forming multiple ascending triangle patterns on different time frames. Our options expire in November and I suggest we give this some time to work.

9/15: RIG is forming an ascending triangle on multiple different time frames and looks poised to breakout. We have some time with November options and expect RIG to shoot higher in the coming days/weeks. My comments from below have not changed.

9/14: We may need to exhibit some patience here as RIG is consolidating gains. The volume pattern looks great as the pullbacks are on lighter volume than the breakout. Broader market weakness will most likely pull RIG down but I believe the dips will be bought. Our options expire in November so I'm not worried about time decay yet. I like new positions on any further weakness.

Current Position: Long November $65.00 CALL, entry was at $2.25

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 13, 2010
Earnings 11/3/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


Vale SA - VALE - close 27.85 change -0.22 stop 25.80

Target(s): 28.38 (hit), 28.65, 28.90, 29.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 29.30, 28.45, 28.00, 27.25
Current Gain/Loss: +4%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/18: There have been several opportunities to take profits in VALE but our targets were just missed (they were adjusted on 9/14)). The stock is maintaining an upward trend line and is consolidating above its moving averages. Any breakouts prior to weakness should be used as an opportunity to take profits.

9/16: I like the support VALE has at current levels and just below and with broader market strength the stock should hit our more aggressive targets. My comments from below remain the same.

9/14: VALE came within 4 cents of our primary second target before backing off and closing near its lows of the day. Options could have been closed for about 85 to 90 cents on the surge higher this morning which would have been a +70% to +80% gain. Nonetheless, our current gain is +44%. It looks like VALE is due for more pullback so readers should consider protecting profits. I do believe the dips will get bought and VALE should head back higher once the selling subsides. I've adjusted the targets and suggest we close positions as targets approach again.

9/13: Vale surged +3.39% higher today and our first target has been hit. I'm looking for $28.75 and suggest we close positions or tighten stops at this level.

NOTE: I have chosen a further out of the money call than normal to reduce risk on the trade should the stock break lower.

Current Position: Long October $29.00 CALL at, entry was at $0.50

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17 million
Listed on September 8, 2010


PUT Play Updates

Freeport-McMoRan - FCX - close 81.72 change +0.01 stop 84.55

Target(s): 79.40, 78.00, 76.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 84.25, 76.50, 75.00
Current Gain/Loss: -28%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/18: FCX looks toppy and ready for pullback, but then again most things do right now. We are looking for a retracement of some of the recent gains which could come quick and hit our targets. Be ready to close positions if it occurs.

9/15: FCX looked vulnerable this morning but recovered with the remainder of the market. We are short the stock at $80.95 and are looking for a move down towards the August highs. My comments from the play release below have not changed.

9/14: FCX has gained nearly +20% since its low on 8/25 less than 3 weeks ago. The stock has surged higher, virtually in a straight line with little to no pause. FCX has rallied right into its primary downtrend line from its January highs and also closed at a prior resistance level from mid-March. This type of move is not sustainable and I suggest readers open short positions at current levels and play for a retracement of the stock's recent gains. Our primary target is $76.80 which is about -5.5% lower than current levels, and also just above a 38.2% retracement from the 8/25 lows to today's highs. For options traders, if this target is reached it should produce a gain of approximately +60% to +65%. This could be a quick trade and a good strategy would be to immediately place a "good til cancelled" or "one cancels the other" order immediately after the position is entered and be ready to take profits or get out should our stop get hit.

Current Position: Long October $75.00 PUT, entry was at $1.75

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on September 14, 2010


McDonald's Corp. - MCD - close 74.32 change -0.48 stop 75.75

Target(s): 73.25, 72.60, 72.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 75.35, 73.60, 71.50, 70.50
Current Gain/Loss: -14%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/18: I'm looking for MCD to head lower this week and give us a chance to close this position for a profit. The stock needs break through the 20-day SMA which should occur with broader market weakness. I've adjusted the targets and the pullback could be quick so be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/16: After looking terrible on Tuesday and Wednesday morning MCD has recovered all of its losses and is now drifting higher. I believe our stop is in the right place but caution is advised.

9/14: MCD is headed lower and I suggest readers begin to look for exits on any further weakness. My comments from below have not changed.

9/13: MCD lost -0.59% while the broader market surged higher today. The stock traded right up to $74.30 and sold off hard before bouncing late in the day. I'm looking for MCD break through its 20-day and head towards its 50-day SMA but we are most likely going to need to see a broader market pullback. I've added a target of $73.25 which will fill a gap higher on 9/1. This should give us nearly a +50% gain and is a good place to consider taking profits or tightening stops to protect them.

Current Position: Long October $72.50 PUT, entry was at $0.84

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings: 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6 million
Listed on September 9, 2010


SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY - close 112.49 change +0.04 stop 116.25

Target(s): 110.65, 109.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 115.00, 113.00, 110.60, 50-day, 20-day
Current Gain/Loss: -17%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/18: I believe any breakouts in the broader market will be sold into and dips will be bought. I'm looking for a retracement in SPY over the next week or so to fill some gaps and retest its converging 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA's from above. This is when we will close the position and consider a new long entry. $110.65 is the primary target at this point which give us a +35% to +40% gain.

9/16: The S&P 500 looks like it may breakout higher tomorrow on the heels of favorable earnings reports from RIMM and Oracle. This position is meant to be a hedge against our longs but we could experience another short squeeze. Readers may want to consider exiting SPY early and trying to re-enter a short position at a higher price. Regardless, I believe breakouts will be sold into and dips will be bought. I'm looking for a retracement in SPY over the next week or so to fill some gaps and retest its converging 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA's from above. This is when we will close the position and consider a new long entry.

9/13: The market is overbought and needs a healthy pullback to regain its energy. SPY has rallied right into resistance from its June and August highs. I'm looking for the S&P 500 to turn lower here, fill a few open gaps, and test its rising 20-day and 50-day SMA's from above. I suggest readers open short positions at current levels and look for a $2 to $3 pullback in the coming days (equivalent to 20 to 30 S&P 500 points). Our profit targets should produce +40% and +60% gains.

Current Position: Long October $109.00 PUT, entry was at $1.56

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 198 million
Listed on September 13, 2010