Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close 10.70 change +0.15 stop 9.55

Target(s): 10.75 (hit), 11.10, 11.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 11.85, 11.45, 11.00, 10.25, 10.00 9.45
Current Gain/Loss: +27%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on a pullback

Comments:
9/20: I am looking for NVDA to break out above the $10.80 level which should catapult the stock up towards it 100-day SMA (currently at $11.19 but declining). I want to lower the next target to $11.05 to account for the declining 100-day SMA and suggest readers take profits at this level or tighten stops to protect them.

9/18: We are either going to breakout higher or get a pullback this week. If we breakout first I suggest taking profits or tightening stops to protect them as it could be short lived. Nothing has changed from my comments below. All of the above targets remain valid.

Current Position: Long October $10.00 CALL, entry was at $0.72

Entry on September 8, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 23.5 million
Listed on August 28, 2010


Stillwater Mining - SWC - close 15.59 change +0.32 stop 14.20

Target(s): 15.45 (hit), 15.90 (hit), 16.30, 16.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.40 to 14.70, 15.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, only on pullbacks

Comments:
9/20: SWC recouped some of its losses from Friday, closing +2.10% on the day. The stock's rally seems to be getting a little long in the tooth and is probably going to experience a correction. Readers may want to consider closing positions or using a tighter stop in the $14.85 area. If SWC heads back up towards our targets prior to correcting be prepared to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/18: Our $15.90 target has been hit in each of the past two sessions and SWC lost it today, closing down -3%. Taking profits was the right thing to do. However, the bullish case remains in tact as these pullbacks have continued to get bought. There is support near current levels and the stock is maintaining an upward trend line. Conservative traders may want to consider exiting if mining stocks are weak early this week. Our stop is below the rising 20-day SMA which SWC has not touched since it began to turn higher.

9/16: SWC looks great but I suggest readers begin to look for an exit to protect profits, especially on further strength before a pullback. Our second target was hit today and $16.30 looks like the next stop. I've raised the stop to $14.20 but tighter stops could be considered between $14.90 and $15.25.

Current Position: Long October $15.00 CALL, entry was at $1.20

Entry on September 3, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.62 million
Listed on September 2, 2010


Transocean Ltd - RIG - close 60.22 change +0.06 stop 53.40

Target(s): 62.95, 64.50, 66.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 55.50, 58.35, 63.90, 64.90
Current Gain/Loss: -20%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/18 & 9/20: RIG is very close to breaking higher and is forming multiple ascending triangle patterns on different time frames. Our options expire in November and I suggest we give this some time to work.

9/15: RIG is forming an ascending triangle on multiple different time frames and looks poised to breakout. We have some time with November options and expect RIG to shoot higher in the coming days/weeks. My comments from below have not changed.

9/14: We may need to exhibit some patience here as RIG is consolidating gains. The volume pattern looks great as the pullbacks are on lighter volume than the breakout. Broader market weakness will most likely pull RIG down but I believe the dips will be bought. Our options expire in November so I'm not worried about time decay yet. I like new positions on any further weakness.

Current Position: Long November $65.00 CALL, entry was at $2.25

Entry on September 13, 2010
Earnings 11/3/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


Vale SA - VALE - close 28.07 change +0.22 stop 25.80

Target(s): 28.38 (hit), 28.65, 28.90, 29.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 29.30, 28.45, 28.00, 27.25
Current Gain/Loss: +0%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/20: My comments from the weekend remain the same. Look for a breakout as an opportunity to take profits.

9/18: There have been several opportunities to take profits in VALE but our targets were just missed (they were adjusted on 9/14). The stock is maintaining an upward trend line and is consolidating above its moving averages. Any breakouts prior to weakness should be used as an opportunity to take profits.

9/16: I like the support VALE has at current levels and just below and with broader market strength the stock should hit our more aggressive targets. My comments from below remain the same.

9/14: VALE came within 4 cents of our primary second target before backing off and closing near its lows of the day. Options could have been closed for about 85 to 90 cents on the surge higher this morning which would have been a +70% to +80% gain. Nonetheless, our current gain is +44%. It looks like VALE is due for more pullback so readers should consider protecting profits. I do believe the dips will get bought and VALE should head back higher once the selling subsides. I've adjusted the targets and suggest we close positions as targets approach again.

NOTE: I have chosen a further out of the money call than normal to reduce risk on the trade should the stock break lower.

Current Position: Long October $29.00 CALL at, entry was at $0.50

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17 million
Listed on September 8, 2010


PUT Play Updates

Archer Daniels Midland - ADM - close 32.95 change +0.57 stop 33.76

Target(s): 31.25, 30.85, 30.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 33.50, 31.00, 29.80
Current Gain/Loss: -20%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/20: We are short ADM and playing for a pullback. New positions can be considered at current levels. The play release is below and my comments remain valid.

9/18: Cautious comments from analysts about rising agricultural commodity prices is likely to affect ADM's business. The stock is overbought and is due for correction after an incredible run higher off of the July lows. ADM has also formed a bearish dark cloud cover technical pattern that suggests the decline is imminent. I suggest we open positions at current levels and play for a $1 to $2 move lower. The primary targets are $31.25 and $30.85 and if reached they should produce a +40% to +60% winner. Our stop is above the 52-week high set on Friday.

Current Position: Long October $32.00 PUT, entry was at $0.82

Entry on September 20, 2010
Earnings: 11/2/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6 million
Listed on September 18, 2010


Freeport-McMoRan - FCX - close 83.35 change +1.63 stop 84.55

Target(s): 80.20, 79.40, 78.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 84.25, 76.50, 75.00
Current Gain/Loss: -50%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes, if playing for quick pullback

Comments:
9/20: A Goldman Sachs upgrade on FCX to buy from neutral sent the stock +2% higher today. As a result, our position suffered greatly and now we need to look for an exit. This move higher in FCX can not continue but it appears any dips will most likely get bought. I've added an immediate target of $80.20, while $79.40 will fill a gap higher. FCX should make it down to these levels on a pullback and is where I suggest readers close positions or tighten stops to protect capital. This could all come at once on one big down day.

9/18: FCX looks toppy and ready for pullback, but then again most things do right now. We are looking for a retracement of some of the recent gains which could come quick and hit our targets. Be ready to close positions if it occurs.

Current Position: Long October $75.00 PUT, entry was at $1.75

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on September 14, 2010


McDonald's Corp. - MCD - close 75.11 change +0.79 stop 75.75

Target(s): 73.85, 73.25, 72.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 75.35, 73.60, 71.50, 70.50
Current Gain/Loss: -45%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes, if playing for a quick pullback

Comments:
9/20: We've got a double top in play on MCD's hourly chart but price needs to turn lower tomorrow. I've added a target of 73.85, while 73.25 would be a gap fill. I suggest readers begin to look for an exit or tighten stops if MCD trades down to these levels.

9/18: I'm looking for MCD to head lower this week and give us a chance to close this position for a profit. The stock needs break through the 20-day SMA which should occur with broader market weakness. I've adjusted the targets and the pullback could be quick so be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/16: After looking terrible on Tuesday and Wednesday morning MCD has recovered all of its losses and is now drifting higher. I believe our stop is in the right place but caution is advised.

Current Position: Long October $72.50 PUT, entry was at $0.84

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings: 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6 million
Listed on September 9, 2010


SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY - close 114.21 change +1.72 stop 116.25

Target(s): 112.10, 111.10, 110.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 115.00, 113.00, 110.60, 50-day, 20-day
Current Gain/Loss: -46%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes, if playing for a quick pullback

Comments:
9/20: My comments from below have not changed. SPY broke out today but I do believe it will get sold into which sets things up for a much need healthy pullback in the broader market. I suggest using this pullback as an opportunity to close positions or tighten stops, even if we have to take a loss. I've adjusted our targets. The first target is just above the 200-day SMA while the final target is a gap fill which is just above the rising 20 and 50-day SMA's.

9/18: I believe any breakouts in the broader market will be sold into and dips will be bought. I'm looking for a retracement in SPY over the next week or so to fill some gaps and retest its converging 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA's from above. This is when we will close the position and consider a new long entry. $110.65 is the primary target at this point which give us a +35% to +40% gain.

9/16: The S&P 500 looks like it may breakout higher tomorrow on the heels of favorable earnings reports from RIMM and Oracle. This position is meant to be a hedge against our longs but we could experience another short squeeze. Readers may want to consider exiting SPY early and trying to re-enter a short position at a higher price. Regardless, I believe breakouts will be sold into and dips will be bought. I'm looking for a retracement in SPY over the next week or so to fill some gaps and retest its converging 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA's from above. This is when we will close the position and consider a new long entry.

Current Position: Long October $109.00 PUT, entry was at $1.56

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 198 million
Listed on September 13, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

ConocoPhillips - COP - close 56.83 change +1.56 stop 52.30

Target(s): 55.85 (hit), 56.90 (hit), 57.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 58.50, 57.00, 54.00, 53.00 to 53.50
Final Gain/Loss: +57.1%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/20: I have been waiting for a breakout in COP to take profits and that's what happened today. In light of the broader market's overbought conditions selling into strength and locking in profits is the smart thing to do. As such, we are flat the position for a +57% gain. There is a prior resistance level (now support) in the $54.70 to $55.50 area but a move back down there will virtually erase the position's gains. It's time to take profits or at least protect them.

9/18: Not much has changed in COP this week. We are looking to take profits on a breakout, otherwise we may need to exhibit some patience on a pullback with options that expire in November. My comments below remain valid.

9/16: COP hit our first target of $55.85 and backed off. Positions could have been closed for a +25% gain. COP and the broader market certainly look due for a pullback, however, they could just as easily breakout. Regardless, at this point pullbacks appear they will be bought so we are leaving this position open with options that expire in November. I've added another near term target and will be looking to take profits on breakouts, especially if there is not a pullback first.

Closed Position: Long November $57.50 CALL at $1.65, entry was at $1.05

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 7, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.9 million
Listed on September 4, 2010


iShares Russell 2000 - IWM - close 67.02 change +1.81 stop 59.80 *DROPPED*

Target(s): 66.50, 67.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 68.00, 67.00, 64.50, 62.00
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks

Comments:
9/20: We have been shut out of entering IWM long. The small caps have surged higher and I can not chase them at these levels. As such, we are dropping the play and may reconsider it after the market gets a much needed healthy pullback.

9/18: I continue to like IWM on a pullback but I won't chase it higher as it is a higher risk situation. My comments from below remain the same.

9/16: Let's raise the trigger to $63.55 which is just above the 50-day SMA. I view weakness in IWM as a buying opportunity and the rising 50-day is a good entry as IWM will test it for the first time since it began turning up. Patience will pay off for us. I'll adjust the stop once we are in the positions.

9/14: We are going to get a pullback and our trigger to enter is just above IWM's 50-day SMA, which should act as a launching point for a move back towards recent highs. I suggest readers be prepared to buy the dip which could easily happen in the next day or two.

Dropped Position: Buy November $65.00 CALL, current ask $3.09, estimated ask at entry $2.20

Entry on September xx
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 60 million
Listed on September 7, 2010