Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close 11.29 change +0.58 stop 11.08 *NEW*

Target(s): 10.75 (hit), 11.05 (hit), 11.45, 11.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 11.85, 11.45, 11.00, 10.25, 10.00 9.45
Current Gain/Loss: +93%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on a pullback

Comments:
9/21: NVDA broke out today on a weak tape gaining +5.4% on the day. Our options have gained +93% and it is time to fiercely protect capital. Let's move the stop all the way up to $11.08 which will guarantee a nice profit. I also suggest we exit positions at the close tomorrow if our stop or remaining targets are not reached. I've added a target of $11.45 which is near today's highs and the 7/14 highs. Traders may want to consider a 10 or 15 cent trailing stop to see how much more we can get out of the trade.

9/20: I am looking for NVDA to break out above the $10.80 level which should catapult the stock up towards its 100-day SMA (currently at $11.19 but declining). I want to lower the next target to $11.05 to account for the declining 100-day SMA and suggest readers take profits at this level or tighten stops to protect them.

Current Position: Long October $10.00 CALL, entry was at $0.72

Entry on September 8, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 23.5 million
Listed on August 28, 2010


Stillwater Mining - SWC - close 15.35 change +0.32 stop 14.20

Target(s): 15.45 (hit), 15.90 (hit), 16.30, 16.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.40 to 14.70, 15.00
Current Gain/Loss: -12.5%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, only on pullbacks

Comments:
9/21: SWC sold off hard this morning and had a nice recovery this afternoon. I suggest readers use caution and consider exiting positions, especially on strength. All of the above targets remain valid. My comments from below remain the same.

9/20: SWC recouped some of its losses from Friday, closing +2.10% on the day. The stock's rally seems to be getting a little long in the tooth and is probably going to experience a correction. Readers may want to consider closing positions or using a tighter stop in the $14.85 area. If SWC heads back up towards our targets prior to correcting be prepared to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/18: Our $15.90 target has been hit in each of the past two sessions and SWC lost it today, closing down -3%. Taking profits was the right thing to do. However, the bullish case remains in tact as these pullbacks have continued to get bought. There is support near current levels and the stock is maintaining an upward trend line. Conservative traders may want to consider exiting if mining stocks are weak early this week. Our stop is below the rising 20-day SMA which SWC has not touched since it began to turn higher.

9/16: SWC looks great but I suggest readers begin to look for an exit to protect profits, especially on further strength before a pullback. Our second target was hit today and $16.30 looks like the next stop. I've raised the stop to $14.20 but tighter stops could be considered between $14.90 and $15.25.

Current Position: Long October $15.00 CALL, entry was at $1.20

Entry on September 3, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.62 million
Listed on September 2, 2010


Transocean Ltd - RIG - close 59.67 change -0.55 stop 53.40

Target(s): 62.95, 64.50, 66.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 55.50, 58.25, 63.90, 64.90
Current Gain/Loss: -30%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/21: RIG broke out to a new a high today but it was quickly sold into. I continue to like the volume patterns in this stock and today's volume on the pullback was on the one of the lightest days since RIG broke higher on 9/10. However, it appears the broader may get a pullback here so we may need to exhibit some patience. New positions can be considered at current levels or on a pullback to $58.35 where there is solid support.

9/18 & 9/20: RIG is very close to breaking higher and is forming multiple ascending triangle patterns on different time frames. Our options expire in November and I suggest we give this some time to work.

9/15: RIG is forming an ascending triangle on multiple different time frames and looks poised to breakout. We have some time with November options and expect RIG to shoot higher in the coming days/weeks. My comments from below have not changed.

Current Position: Long November $65.00 CALL, entry was at $2.25

Entry on September 13, 2010
Earnings 11/3/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


PUT Play Updates

Archer Daniels Midland - ADM - close 32.85 change -0.10 stop 33.76

Target(s): 31.25, 30.85, 30.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 33.50, 31.00, 29.80
Current Gain/Loss: -20%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/20 & 9/21: We are short ADM and playing for a pullback. New positions can be considered at current levels. The play release is below and my comments remain valid.

9/18: Cautious comments from analysts about rising agricultural commodity prices is likely to affect ADM's business. The stock is overbought and is due for correction after an incredible run higher off of the July lows. ADM has also formed a bearish dark cloud cover technical pattern that suggests the decline is imminent. I suggest we open positions at current levels and play for a $1 to $2 move lower. The primary targets are $31.25 and $30.85 and if reached they should produce a +40% to +60% winner. Our stop is above the 52-week high set on Friday.

Current Position: Long October $32.00 PUT, entry was at $0.82

Entry on September 20, 2010
Earnings: 11/2/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6 million
Listed on September 18, 2010


Freeport-McMoRan - FCX - close 82.99 change -0.36 stop 84.55

Target(s): 80.20, 79.40, 78.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 84.25, 76.50, 75.00
Current Gain/Loss: -50%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes, if playing for quick pullback

Comments:
9/21: What a day, FCX gave up all of yesterday's big advance and then some by the time noon rolled around. However, after the FOMC announcement the stock rallied hard into the close. All told, FCX traded in a 3% range today and closed down 36 cents. Traders holding long positions in FCX had a scare today and if selling picks up again we could see a sharp move lower. This is when we should consider exiting positions or tightening stops as our targets approach.

9/20: A Goldman Sachs upgrade on FCX to buy from neutral sent the stock +2% higher today. As a result, our position suffered greatly and now we need to look for an exit. This move higher in FCX can not continue but it appears any dips will most likely get bought. I've added an immediate target of $80.20, while $79.40 will fill a gap higher. FCX should make it down to these levels on a pullback and is where I suggest readers close positions or tighten stops to protect capital. This could all come at once on one big down day.

Current Position: Long October $75.00 PUT, entry was at $1.75

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on September 14, 2010


SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY - close 114.21 change -0.23 stop 116.25

Target(s): 112.10, 111.50, 110.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 115.00, 113.00, 110.60, 50-day, 20-day
Current Gain/Loss: -40%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes, if playing for a quick pullback

Comments:
9/21: The bulls have made an impressive run but it appears they are getting exhausted. If the selling starts, which will most likely come fast, I think traders will run for the exits to lock in profits. This is when we want to exit this position or tighten stops to protect capital. I tweaked the middle target above due to a calculation error.

9/20: My comments from below have not changed. SPY broke out today but I do believe it will get sold into which sets things up for a much need healthy pullback in the broader market. I suggest using this pullback as an opportunity to close positions or tighten stops, even if we have to take a loss. I've adjusted our targets. The first target is just above the 200-day SMA while the final target is a gap fill which is just above the rising 20 and 50-day SMA's.

9/18: I believe any breakouts in the broader market will be sold into and dips will be bought. I'm looking for a retracement in SPY over the next week or so to fill some gaps and retest its converging 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day SMA's from above. This is when we will close the position and consider a new long entry. $110.65 is the primary target at this point which give us a +35% to +40% gain.

Current Position: Long October $109.00 PUT, entry was at $1.56

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 198 million
Listed on September 13, 2010

Xilinx, Inc - XLNX - close 26.02 change -0.15 stop 27.20

Target(s): 25.40, 25.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 26.75, 25.60, 25.20, 24.00
Current Gain/Loss: +4%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/21: We are short XLNX as of the open this morning. My comments below haven't changed.

9/20: Semiconductor stocks have experienced a slew of recent downgrades and they keep coming as RBC cut its rating on XLNX to Sector Perform from Outperform. The semi's have been the worst performing sector over the past month and a broader market pullback should send the stocks in the sector back to retest their recent lows. If it weren't for the strong market today XLNX would probably have closed near our targets, but the intraday recovery is providing a second chance to enter short positions. I suggest readers initiate short positions at current levels and play for quick pullback of $0.80 to $1.20. If our targets are reached the estimated gain on the position is +50% to +75%.

Current Position: Long October $26.00 PUT, entry was at $0.68

Entry on September 21, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7 million
Listed on September 20, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Vale SA - VALE - close 28.51 change +0.44 stop 25.80

Target(s): 28.38 (hit), 28.65 (hit), 28.90, 29.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 29.30, 28.45, 28.00, 27.25
Final Gain/Loss: +46%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/21: VALE hit our target of $28.65 so we have closed the position for a +46% gain. The real opportunity to close this position was on 9/14 when the stock barely missed our $28.75 target and we had a +75% gain. At that time we lowered the target 10 cents to take advantage of another spike higher which happened today. VALE could have some gas left in the tank for a move higher but I would be cautious of a broader market pullback which could crush October call premiums as they expire 3 weeks from Friday.

9/20: My comments from the weekend remain the same. Look for a breakout as an opportunity to take profits.

9/18: There have been several opportunities to take profits in VALE but our targets were just missed (they were adjusted on 9/14). The stock is maintaining an upward trend line and is consolidating above its moving averages. Any breakouts prior to weakness should be used as an opportunity to take profits.

9/14: VALE came within 4 cents of our primary second target before backing off and closing near its lows of the day. Options could have been closed for about 85 to 90 cents on the surge higher this morning which would have been a +70% to +80% gain. Nonetheless, our current gain is +44%. It looks like VALE is due for more pullback so readers should consider protecting profits. I do believe the dips will get bought and VALE should head back higher once the selling subsides. I've adjusted the targets and suggest we close positions as targets approach again.

NOTE: I have chosen a further out of the money call than normal to reduce risk on the trade should the stock break lower.

Closed Position: Long October $29.00 CALL at $0.73, entry was at $0.50

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 17 million
Listed on September 8, 2010



CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

McDonald's Corp. - MCD - close 75.51 change +0.40 stop 75.75

Target(s): 73.85, 73.25, 72.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 75.35, 73.60, 71.50, 70.50
Final Gain/Loss: -58%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/21: Unfortunately, MCD hit our stop to the penny so we are flat the position for a loss. The stock looked vulnerable last week but just won't give it up so we are protecting capital. Readers who still have positions may want to stick with it with a stop above today's highs as a broader market correction looks likely.

9/20: We've got a double top in play on MCD's hourly chart but price needs to turn lower tomorrow. I've added a target of 73.85, while 73.25 would be a gap fill. I suggest readers begin to look for an exit or tighten stops if MCD trades down to these levels.

9/18: I'm looking for MCD to head lower this week and give us a chance to close this position for a profit. The stock needs break through the 20-day SMA which should occur with broader market weakness. I've adjusted the targets and the pullback could be quick so be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/16: After looking terrible on Tuesday and Wednesday morning MCD has recovered all of its losses and is now drifting higher. I believe our stop is in the right place but caution is advised.

Closed Position: Long October $72.50 PUT at $0.35, entry was at $0.84

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings: 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6 million
Listed on September 9, 2010