Editor's Note:

FDS hit our first target to take profits. I've updated our stop loss on FDS. Meanwhile DECK hit our trigger to buy puts.

-James

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Deere & Co. - DE - close: 90.99 change: +1.60

Stop Loss: 87.99
Target(s): 94.75, 99.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
01/27 update: Rival CAT issued strong earnings numbers and guidance this morning yet shares of CAT only gained +0.9%. Shares of DE fared even worse, not even testing resistance near $92.00. There is no change from my prior comments. We have a trigger to buy calls at $92.10. Keep your position size small to limit your risk! Our secondary target is $99.50 should DE manage a breakout. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.
The Point & Figure chart for DE is bullish with a $100 target.

Trigger @ 92.10

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the 2011 February $95 calls (DE1119B95) current ask $0.96

Entry on January xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/16/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
Listed on January 26th, 2010


FactSet Research Systems - FDS - close: 99.78 change: +1.29

Stop Loss: 95.75
Target(s): 99.90, 103.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +27.5%, and +50.0%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: Target achieved. The rally continues for FDS and shares hit round-number, psychological resistance at the $100 level today. We had a target to take profits at $99.90. Please note I'm raising our stop loss to $95.75. I would not be surprised to see FDS hit some profit taking here. The stock should have short-term support at $98 and $96. No new positions at this time. Our final target is $103.50.

Small Positions

Long the 2011 February $95 call (FDS1119B95) Entry @ $2.90

- or -

Long the 2011 February $100 call (FDS1119B100) Entry @ $0.70

01/27 New stop loss @ 95.75
01/27 1st Target Hit @ 99.90. Feb. $95 call @ $4.25 (+46.5%)
01/27 1st Target Hit @ 99.90. Feb. $100 call @ $1.45 (+107%)

chart:

Entry on January 25th at $96.64
Earnings Date 03/16/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 181 thousand
Listed on January 24th, 2010


FedEx Corp. - FDX - close: 94.36 change: +0.05

Stop Loss: 91.75
Target(s): 99.90, 104.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -42.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: More of the same from FDX. Shares are stuck churning sideways. There is no change from my prior comments. Eventually this stock is going to move and shares are nearing the trendline of higher lows. So a rally or a breakdown should be imminent. I would be reluctant to launch new positions.

- Suggested Positions (only small positions so far) -

Buy the 2011 April $100 call (FDX1116D100) Entry @ $2.96

01/22: January options have expired (-100%)
01/13: New targets for the April calls (99.90 and 104.75)
01/12: New stop loss @ 91.75
01/08: New exit strategy for January calls. Try to exit at 40 cents or more.
12/17: FDX opens at $94.23 - our entry point.
12/16: Adjusted Entry - initiate small positions now (@ Friday's open)

Entry on December 17th at $94.23
Earnings Date 12/16/10 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on November 29th, 2010


Research In Motion - RIMM - close: 61.98 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 59.90
Target(s): 64.75, 67.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -37.6%, and -27.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: Hmm... should we be concerned for RIMM? The NASDAQ outperforms today but RIMM barely moves. Volume was light for the stock today. Shares are consolidating sideways above its 50-dma. I am reluctant to open new positions here. Our final target remains $67.50.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the 2011 February $62.50 calls (RIMM1119B62.5) Entry @ $2.47

- or -

Long the 2011 March $65.00 calls (RIMM1119C65) Entry @ $2.35

01/13: New stop @ 59.90
01/13: 1st Target Hit @ 64.75. Feb. call @ $4.00 (+61.9%) Mar. call @ $3.75 (+59.5%)
01/12: New stop loss @ 58.45

Entry on January 6th at $61.00
Earnings Date 03/31/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.9 million
Listed on January 5th, 2010


CBOE Market Volatility Index - VIX - close: 16.15 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: N/A
Target(s): 24.00, 28.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -25.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: The market's strength is not helping our VIX trade. There is no change from my prior comments. I would still consider new positions here. You could wait for a dip closer to the 16.00-15.50 zone before launching positions.

Officially we're listing this play without a stop loss but more conservative traders may want to consider a stop loss under the recent lows near $15.30. We have two targets to take profits at 24.00 and at 28.00.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the 2011 March $22.50 calls (VIX1116C22.5) Entry @ $1.60

Entry on January 26th at $17.00
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =
Listed on January 25th, 2010


PUT Play Updates

Cognizant Technology Solutions - CTSH - close: 73.17 change: -0.05

Stop Loss: 75.25
Target(s): 70.25, 68.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -11.5%
Time Frame: exit ahead of earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: I am somewhat encouraged by the lack of action in CTSH today. Tech stocks and the NASDAQ were pushing higher but CTSH just sat there and drifted sideways along the $73 level. Readers may want to wait for another failed rally in the $74-75 zone before launching new positions. Our first target is $70.25. Our secondary target is $68.00. We still want to avoid holding over earnings. That only gives us a few trading days (earnings are Feb. 7th).

- Suggested Positions (very small positions only!) -

Long the 2011 February $70.00 PUT (CTSH1119N70) Entry @ $1.30

01/24 CTSH opened at $73.13. Put option opened at $1.30 01/22 Moved from call candidate to put play.

Entry on January 24th at $73.13
Earnings Date 02/07/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
Listed as a PUT on January 22nd, 2010


Decker's Outdoor Corp. - DECK - close: 76.62 change: +0.88

Stop Loss: 80.25
Target(s): 70.50, 65.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -11.3%, and - 8.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: Our put play on DECK is now open. As expected shares bounced toward the $77 level. Shares actually hit $77.10. Our trigger to buy puts was at the $77.00 mark. DECK should have resistance at the 50-dma and the $78-80 zone.

Our targets are $70.50 and $65.50. The Point & Figure chart for DECK is bearish with a $65 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the 2011 February $75.00 PUTS (DECK1119N75) Entry @ $2.65

- or -

Long the 2011 March $75.00 PUTS (DECK1119O75) Entry @ $4.80

01/27 DECK hit our trigger to buy puts at $77.00

chart:

Entry on January 27th at $77.00
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on January 20th, 2010


Google Inc. - GOOG - close: 616.79 change: + 0.29

Stop Loss: n/a
Target(s): n/a
Current Option Gain/Loss: see below
Time Frame: 1 month
New Positions: No

THIS IS A STRANGLE TRADE (not a simple put play)

Comments:
01/27 update: Thursday was a very quiet day for GOOG. This lack of movement is killing our aggressive bet on GOOG. There is no change from my prior comments.

We're not interested in the day to day churn in GOOG. What we want to see is this stock pick a direction and run with it. Right now GOOG news to either breakout past $640 or breakdown under $600. I'm not suggesting new strangle positions at this time.

EXIT PLAN:
We will keep the February strangle position for a few more days and re-evaluate our exit strategy.

STRANGLE TRADE: Buy an out of the money CALL and PUT

STRANGLE #2 (February) initial cost $15.10, currently: $2.50 (-83.4%)

2011 February $680 call (GOOG1119B680) Entry @ $6.20

- AND -

2011 February $580 put (GOOG1122N580) Entry @ $8.90

01/22: Exit the January strangle at the open.

Entry on January 20th at $626.77
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on January 19th, 2010


iShares Russell 2000 Index - IWM - close: 79.35 change: +0.23

Stop Loss: 80.80
Target(s): 75.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -47.8%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: The IWM is still bouncing. The recent action has been bullish but there should still be resistance at the $80.00 level. Readers may want to wait for the IWM to fail near $80 before initiating new bearish positions.

Small Position only

Long the 2011 February $77 puts (IWM1119N77) Entry @ $1.65

Entry on January 20th at $78.14
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 38 million
Listed on January 19th, 2010


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 73.68 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 75.51
Target(s): 69.00, 66.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -24.0%, and -10.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: MON saw a couple of spikes toward the $74.50 level but it looks like the bounce could be losing momentum. I would still consider new bearish positions here with our stop loss at $75.51. Our targets are $69.00 and $66.00.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the 2011 February $70 PUT (FDS1119N70) Entry @ $1.00

- or -

Long the 2011 March $70 PUT (FDS1119O70) Entry @ $1.85

Entry on January 26th at $73.00
Earnings Date 03/31/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on January 24th, 2010


Panera Bread Co. - PNRA - close: 97.14 change: +1.04

Stop Loss: 100.55
Target(s): 95.15, 91.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 5.2%
Time Frame: 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/27 update: PNRA is trying to bounce from support at the 100-dma but the rally failed under the $98 level today. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target to take profits is at $95.15. Our second target is $91.00.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)

Long the 2011 February $95 PUTS (PNRA1119N95) Entry @ $2.85

01/26 New stop loss @ 100.55, target adjusted from 95.50 to 95.15

Entry on January 24th at $97.96
Earnings Date 02/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 364 thousand
Listed on January 22nd, 2010