Editor's Note:

The energy sector outperformed on Monday and material stocks were feeling the love. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ settled at new two-year highs.

-James

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Ashland Inc. - ASH - close: 59.17 change: +0.76

Stop Loss: 54.95
Target(s): 63.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +17.8%, and - 3.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Our new call play in ASH is off to a decent start. Shares opened at $58.30 and added +1.3% before the closing bell sounded. I would still consider positions here or on a dip near $58.00. We'll use a stop loss at $54.95 but more conservative traders could probably get away with a tighter stop loss. Our first target is the $63.00 level.

The Point & Figure chart for ASH is bullish with a $83 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $60 calls (ASH1119C60) Entry @ $1.40

- or -

Long the April $60 calls (ASH1116D60) Entry @ $2.55

Entry on February 14th at $58.30
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


Caterpillar Inc. - CAT - close: 103.26 change: -0.28

Stop Loss: 97.90
Target(s): 104.75, 107.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
02/14 update: CAT spent Monday trading sideways in a narrow range. Currently our plan is to buy calls on a dip at $101.00 with a stop loss at $97.90.

Trigger @ 101.00

Buy the March $105 calls (CAT1119C105) current ask $2.92

02/12 Adjusted our trigger, targets, stop loss and strike price.

Entry on February xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 5th, 2010


Clean Harbors, Inc. - CLH - close: 92.99 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 87.95
Target(s): 94.95, 99.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +16.6%
Time Frame: 12 days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Shares of CLH also spent the day drifting sideways in a narrow range. I would still consider new positions now but I would not be surprised to see another dip into the $92-90 zone, which we could use as a new bullish entry point. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss closer to the $90.00 level.

Investors should note that the most recent data lists short interest at 11.3% of the very small 23.1 million-share float. That is a good recipe for a short squeeze higher. Please note that we'll plan on exiting ahead of the earnings on Feb. 23rd (still an unconfirmed date).

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $95.00 call (CLH1119C95) Entry @ $1.80

Entry on February 11th at $92.25
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 181 thousand
Listed on February 10th, 2010


Coach Inc. - COH - close: 57.97 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 54.40
Target(s): 58.25, 62.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +66.6%, and +123.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: COH recovered from a small dip Monday morning and then spent the rest of the day consolidating sideways under the $58.05-58.00 level. There is no change from my prior comments. Currently we have an exit target to take profits at $58.25. Our final exit target is $62.00. No new positions at this time. Keep in mind that the $60.00 level could end up being round-number, psychological resistance.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the 2011 March $55.00 calls (COH1119C55) Entry @ $2.10

- or -

Long the 2011 March $57.50 calls (COH1119C57.5) Entry @ $0.85

02/12: Adjusted 1st target to $58.25
02/12: New stop loss @ 54.40
02/08: New stop loss @ 53.49

Entry on February 7th at $55.35
Earnings Date 04/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
Listed on January 31st, 2011


Costco Wholesale Corp. - COST - close: 74.66 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 72.95
Target(s): 79.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3+ weeks
New Positions: Yes, see Trigger

Comments:
02/14 update: COST is still struggling with resistance near the $75.00 level. Shares opened higher and hit $75.11 but quickly faded. The stock eventually gave up -0.5%. The current all-time high is $75.23. Aggressive traders could buy calls now. I am suggesting we stick to our plan and use a trigger at $75.50. If triggered our target is $79.75. We will plan to exit ahead of COST's early March earnings report. That gives us three or four weeks.

The Point & Figure chart for COST is bullish with an $88 target.

Trigger @ 75.50

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the March $75 calls (COST1119C75) current ask $1.71

Entry on February xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/02/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
Listed on February 7th, 2010


Donaldson Company, Inc. - DCI - close: 61.19 change: +0.49

Stop Loss: 59.75
Target(s): 62.50, 64.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: +25.0%
Time Frame: just a few days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: DCI outperformed the major market averages with a +0.8% gain. That's good news since tomorrow (Tuesday) is our last day. We will plan on exiting this position tomorrow at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings on Wednesday morning. I am raising our stop loss to $59.75.

(Small Positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long the 2011 March $60 calls (DCI1119C60) Entry @ $1.80

02/14 New stop loss @ 59.75, Prepare to Exit on Tuesday's close.
02/12 New stop loss @ 58.45
02/10 Time frame for this trade has changed!
02/10 Bullish Trigger hit @ 60.35
02/05 Switched from puts to calls. Trigger @ 60.35

Entry on February 10th at $60.35
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 208 thousand
Listed on January 31st, 2011


Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 63.09 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 59.40
Target(s): 64.75, 67.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see Trigger

Comments:
02/14 update: It was a quiet session for FAST with the stock churning in a narrow range. I am still expecting a little correction lower soon. We have a trigger to buy calls on the dip at $61.65, with a stop loss at $59.40. Our targets are $64.75 and $67.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FAST is bullish with a $73 target. Readers may want to keep in mind that the most recent data listed short interest at 11.4% of the 132 million-share float.

Trigger @ 61.55

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the March $60 calls (FAST1119C60) current ask $3.30

- or -

Buy the March $65 calls (FAST1119C65) current ask $0.75

02/12 New trigger @ 61.55, new stop loss @ 59.40

Entry on February xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Listed on February 8th, 2010


Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 74.21 change: +0.69

Stop Loss: 69.25
Target(s): 77.25, 79.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 7 trading days
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
02/14 update: FLR tagged another new 52-week high. We are waiting for a little pull back. I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $72.00.

Please note that this is a short-term trade. We only have a few days. FLR is due to report earnings on Wednesday, Feb. 23rd before the opening bell. Therefore we will plan to exit on Tuesday, Feb. 22nd at the closing bell, if FLR hasn't hit our exit target before then.

The Point & Figure chart for FLR is bullish with an $84 target.

Trigger @ $72.00

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the March $75.00 calls (FLR1119C75) current ask $2.50

Entry on February xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


Joy Global Inc. - JOYG - close: 95.74 change: +1.85

Stop Loss: 87.40
Target(s): 97.25, 99.85
Current Option Gain/Loss: +18.1%, and + 5.4%
Time Frame: 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Our new trade on JOYG is off to a good start. Shares opened at $94.44 and briefly rallied over $96.00 before settling with a +1.9% gain. If you missed the open this morning I would still consider new positions on a dip in the $95-94 zone. Actually we could use a dip anywhere in the $95.00-90.00 zone but the $94 and $91 levels look like they could offer some short-term support.

I do consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because our stop loss is a little wide. You could try a tighter (more conservative) stop loss but JOYG can see sudden bouts of volatility. Our upside targets are $97.25 and $99.85.

The Point & Figure chart for JOYG is bullish with a $113 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $95 calls (JOYG1119C95) Entry @ $3.85

- or -

Long the April $100 calls (JOYG1116D100) Entry @ $3.46

Entry on February 14th at $94.44
Earnings Date 03/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


Nike Inc. - NKE - close: 85.77 change: -0.44

Stop Loss: 83.85
Target(s): 88.00, 89.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see Trigger

Comments:
02/14 update: NKE is almost there. We have been waiting for a dip toward the $85 area. Our trigger to buy calls is at $85.25. The stock hit $85.45 today. More aggressive traders may want to go ahead and buy calls now. More conservative traders could hold out for a potential dip near the $84 level instead. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $83.85. Our targets are $88.00 and $89.90.

Trigger @ $85.25

- Suggested Positions - (Small Positions Only!)

Buy the March $85 calls (NKE1119C85) current ask $3.70

- or -

Buy the April $90 calls (NKE1116D90) current ask $1.76

Entry on February xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/17/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on February 9th, 2010


PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 52.76 change: +0.24

Stop Loss: 49.45
Target(s): 53.45
Current Option Gain/Loss: +76.6%, and +85.7%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: PCAR is still inching higher. Currently our final exit target is $53.45 but more aggressive traders could aim higher. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
This should be a short-term trade. Aggressive traders could use February calls. I'm listing both February and March. Just remember that Februarys expire soon. Note: A lot of the option strikes are odd. PCAR must have had some sort of dividend.

Open Small Positions Now

Long the February $49.70 call (PCAR1119B49.7) Entry @ $1.50

- or -

Long the March $55 call (PCAR 1119C55) Entry @ $0.35

02/12 Adjusted our final exit target to $53.45

Entry on February 7th at $50.60
Earnings Date 04/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
Listed on February 5th, 2010


Quality Systems Inc. - QSII - close: 80.23 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 77.95
Target(s): 84.90, 89.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -17.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Our aggressive entry point in QSII is not paying off yet. The stock failed to break out higher and saw a little volatility this morning. Shares eventually settled into a very narrow range near the $80.25 area. At this point we can still open positions now or you could try and jump in on a dip near $79.00 or a breakout past $81.00, depending on your trading style.

The Point & Figure chart for QSII is bullish with a $119 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $85 calls (QSII1119C85) Entry @ $0.85

Entry on February 14th at $80.75
Earnings Date 05/31/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 202 thousand
Listed on February 12th, 2010


The Toronoto-Dominion Bank - TD - close: 80.19 change: +0.54

Stop Loss: 75.90
Target(s): 84.00, 89.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +29.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: TD hit another new all-time high and closed above round-number resistance at the $80.00 mark today. I would still consider new positions here or you could wait for a dip toward $78. Our targets are $84 and $89. We will plan to exit ahead of the early March earnings report (unconfirmed date).

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TD is bullish with a $98 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $80.00 call (TD1119C80) Entry @ $1.35

Entry on February 11th at $78.89
Earnings Date 03/03/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 583 thousand
Listed on February 10th, 2010


Proshares Ultra(long) Russell 2000 - UWM - close: 47.29 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 42.99
Target(s): 49.75, 54.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 7.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Small Positions - UWM Position -

Long the April $48 calls (UWM1116D48) Entry @ $2.75

02/14 UWM opened at $46.90. Option opened @ $2.75

iShares Russell 2000 - IWM - close: 82.49 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 78.65
Target(s): 84.95, 87.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: The rally in small caps continues. The IWM outperformed the large-caps with a +0.5% gain. I would still consider new positions now or you could wait for a dip into the $81-80 zone for the IWM or a dip into the $46-45 zone for the UWM.

Small Positions - IWM Position -

Long the April $84 calls (IWM1116D84) Entry @ $1.92

02/14 IWM opened @ 82.11. Option opened @ 1.92

UWM Entry on February 14th at $46.90
IWM Entry on February 14th at $82.11
Listed on February 12th, 2010


CBOE Market Volatility Index - VIX - close: 15.95 change: +0.26

Stop Loss: N/A
Target(s): 24.00, 28.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -59.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: The VIX spiked toward 15.20 this morning but eventually settling with a gain. I see no changes from my weekend comments. This "fear gauge" is trading near multi-year lows suggesting investors are very complacent.

Over the weekend I suggested (again) that more conservative traders consider an early exit. Or you could keep this trade as some sort of hedge against a sudden market decline but bear in mind that this option expires on March 16th. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Just because the VIX bounced near the 15.00-15.50 level in the past doesn't mean it can go crashing through it but this would be a good area to speculate on a rebound. I will point out that between 2005 and 2006 the VIX was pretty much dead, limping along the 10.00 area for two years.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the 2011 March $22.50 calls (VIX1116C22.5) Entry @ $1.60

Entry on January 26th at $17.00
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =
Listed on January 25th, 2010


PUT Play Updates

Google Inc. - GOOG - close: 628.15 change: + 3.65

Stop Loss: n/a
Target(s): n/a
Current Option Gain/Loss: see below
Time Frame: 1 month
New Positions: No

THIS IS A STRANGLE TRADE (not a simple put play)

Comments:
02/14 update: There is no change from my prior comments. Our strangle will likely expire worthless. No new strangle positions at this time.

STRANGLE TRADE: Buy an out of the money CALL and PUT

STRANGLE #2 (February) initial cost $15.10, currently: $0.10 (-99.3%)

2011 February $680 call (GOOG1119B680) Entry @ $6.20

- AND -

2011 February $580 put (GOOG1119N580) Entry @ $8.90

01/22: Exit the January strangle at the open.

Entry on January 20th at $626.77
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on January 19th, 2010


iShares Russell 2000 Index - IWM - close: 82.49 change: +0.88

Stop Loss: --.--
Target(s): 75.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -100.0%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: The small cap index continues to climb and the IWM is trading at new 52-week highs. Our put play has been dead for a few days but we're leaving it on the newsletter until expiration. No new bearish positions at this time.

Small Position only

Long the 2011 February $77 puts (IWM1119N77) Entry @ $1.65

02/03 Remove the stop loss
01/29 New stop loss @ 80.25

Entry on January 20th at $78.14
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 38 million
Listed on January 19th, 2010