Editor's Note:

Thursday's session ended with a whimper but it was the best first quarter for the S&P 500 since 1998. The trend is very much up but the jobs report tomorrow morning could be pivotal. Traders could use it as a catalyst to take profits if the jobs numbers is disappointing, or as a catalyst to push higher if the jobs data is strong. Of course there is the chance that stocks pop higher in the morning on strong data and then reverse into profit taking ahead of the weekend. Readers may want to wait for a dip before considering new bullish positions.

-James

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Baker Hughes - BHI - close: 73.43 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 67.95
Target(s): 76.50, 79.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: +21.0% and +16.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: It was a quiet quarter end on Thursday and BHI has spent the last few days consolidating sideways under resistance near the $75.00 level. There is no change from my prior comments. I would still consider new positions on dips in the $73.00-72.50 zone. Our first target is $76.50. Our second target is $79.75. More aggressive traders could aim higher. FYI: If BHI can breakout past the $72.00 level it would create a new quadruple top breakout buy signal on its Point & Figure chart.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $75 calls (BHI1116D75) Entry @ $1.00

- or -

Long the May $75 calls (BHI1121E75) Entry @ $2.61

Entry on March 24th at $72.35 *gap higher*
Earnings Date 05/03/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.6 million
Listed on March 23rd, 2011


Baidu, Inc. - BIDU - close: 137.81 change: +1.43

Stop Loss: 124.00
Target(s): 139.00, 147.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +173.4%, and + 92.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: Traders bought the dip in BIDU this morning and shares were slowly drifting higher into the closing bell. If the market rallies on Friday then BIDU has a good chance of hitting our first target at $139.00. More conservative traders may want to start taking profits now, especially with the April $130 call up +173%. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target to take profits is at $139.00. We will plan to exit ahead of BIDU's late April earnings report. BIDU can be a volatile stock so I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $130 calls (BIDU1116D130) entry @ $3.20

- or -

Long the May $135 calls (BIDU1121E135) entry @ $5.10

03/26 New stop loss @ 124.00

Entry on March 22 at $127.00
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million
Listed on March 21st, 2010


Caterpillar Inc. - CAT - close: 111.35 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 103.75
Target(s): 109.00, 114.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +101.4%, and +60.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: CAT delivered a very strong quarterly performance with a +18.8% gain. Shares have been hovering under the $112 level the last couple of days. I am repeating my prior comments that CAT is short-term overbought and due for some profit taking. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately instead of holding on as we target a move to $114.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $105 calls (CAT1116D105) Entry @ $3.40

- or -

Long the May $110 calls (CAT1121E110) Entry @ $3.15

03/26/11 New stop loss @ 103.75
03/25/11 1st Target Hit @ 109.00, Options @ +58.8%, +37.7%

Entry on March 18th at $104.99 (gap higher)
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.4 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Capital One Financial - COF - close: 51.96 change: -0.15

Stop Loss: 49.49
Target(s): 54.75, 59.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 7.9% and -72.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: Financial stocks continue to lag the rest of the market. I am growing more concerned that COF might be building a bearish double top pattern with the resistance near $53 in February and a potential failed rally near $53 now in late March. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at current levels. Wait for another bounce from the $50 zone. Our targets are $54.75 and $59.00.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $50 call (COF1116D50) Entry @ $2.63

- or -

Long the April $55 call (COF1116D55) Entry @ $0.65

03/24 New stop loss @ 49.49

Entry on March 16th at $51.08
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 78.60 change: +1.03

Stop Loss: 73.45
Target(s): 79.90, 83.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -14.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: There was no follow through lower on yesterday's sell-off in CSX. I remain cautious here. Look for support near $76 or $75 as a new entry point to buy calls. Don't forget that we plan to exit before CSX reports earnings in two or three weeks.

Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CSX is bullish with a $98 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Long the April $80 calls (CSX1116D80) Entry @ $1.06

03/28 1st Target Hit @ 79.90, Option @ $1.90 (+79.2%)

Entry on March 21 at $77.25
Earnings Date 04/13/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Jones Lang Lasalle Inc. - JLL - close: 99.74 change: +0.85

Stop Loss: 96.40
Target(s): 102.50, 109.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -32.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: JLL is bouncing from technical support near its 30 and 40-dma. A rebound back above the $100 mark might be a new bullish entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders will want to consider raising their stops. The 50-dma near $96.85 should offer additional support.

Prior Comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our targets are $102.50 and $109.00.

- Suggested Positions - (Small Positions)

Long the April $100 calls (JLL1116D100) Entry @ $3.40

03/30 new stop loss @ 96.40
03/24 New stop loss @ 95.40
03/17 Exited March calls @ open, Estimated exit @ 0.10 (-94.2%)
03/10 New stop loss @ 93.85

Entry on February 28th at $97.96
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 386 thousand
Listed on February 26th, 2010


Noble Corp. - NE - close: 45.62 change: -0.50

Stop Loss: 43.95
Target(s): 49.75, 53.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 9.2%, and -15.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: I found the action in NE today a bit surprising. Oil rises to new two-year highs near $106 a barrel but the rally in the energy stocks stalls. Shares of NE actually underperformed their peers. Shares opened higher at $46.25 but closed with a -1% loss. The move today in NE actually produced a bearish engulfing (reversal) candlestick pattern. Now these patterns normally need to see confirmation but it's a warning signal. NE may be headed back toward the $45-44 zone. I would be tempted to buy dips in the $45-44 area. More conservative traders might want to wait for NE to trade past the March 22nd high of $46.72 before initiating positions.

Our targets are $49.75 and $53.50. I would expect the $50.00 level to offer some resistance and it could take NE a little while to break through it. We will plan to exit ahead of the April 20th (unconfirmed) earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $46.00 calls (NE1121E46) Entry @ $2.17

- or -

Long the May $48.00 calls (NE1121E48) Entry @ $1.37

Entry on March 31st at $46.25
Earnings Date 04/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.5 million
Listed on March 30th, 2011


Norfolk Southern - NSC - close: 69.27 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 64.90
Target(s): 72.00, 74.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 60.0%, and +32.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: NSC tried to rally back above the $70 level again but didn't have enough gas to do it. I would wait for a dip into the $68-66 zone before considering new bullish positions. Our targets are $72.00 and $74.90. We do not want to hold past NSC's late April earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $70 calls (NSC1116D70) Entry @ $0.50

- or -

Long the May $70 calls (NSC1121E70) Entry @ $1.40

Entry on March 25th at $67.84
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on March 24th, 2011


Polaris Industries, Inc. - PII - close: 87.02 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 81.75
Target(s): 84.95, 89.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +27.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 7 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: PII saw a quiet quarter end with shares churning in the $86-87.50 area. The trend is up but PII is arguably short-term overbought. Our final exit target is $89.00. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Our plan was to keep our position size small. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PII is bullish with a $98 target.

- Small Positions -

Long the April $85 calls (PII1116D85) Entry @ 2.00

03/30/11 New stop loss @ 81.75
03/26/11 New stop loss @ 79.75
03/25/11 1st Target Hit @ 84.95, Option @ $2.10 (+5%)

Entry on March 18th at $82.25
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 396 thousand
Listed on March 14th, 2010


Panera Bread Co. - PNRA - close: 127.00 change: +0.23

Stop Loss: 119.00
Target(s): 129.50, 134.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +70.7%, and +28.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: PNRA also spent the session consolidating sideways. I suspect the stock could see some volatility tomorrow as investors react to the jobs report. A could report could push PNRA past the $130 mark. If you're looking for a new entry point I probably wouldn't chase it here. Look for a dip or a bounce near the $123.50 area. Our upside targets are $129.50 and $134.50. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report but that date is currently unconfirmed.

FYI: PNRA is currently trading in the $120 area. The last time the company had a stock split it was back in June 2005 with shares in the $120s. You never know when they might announce a split although if they do it would probably be with their earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $125 call (PNRA1116D125) Entry @ $2.05

- or -

Long the May $130 call (PNRA1121E130) Entry @ $3.35

Entry on March 29th at $123.55
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 363 thousand
Listed on March 26th, 2011


Praxair Inc. - PX - close: 101.60 change: +0.58

Stop Loss: 97.40
Target(s): 104.75, 109.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 5.1%, and - 7.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: PX briefly hit a new high on its intraday move above $102.00. The trend is up. I would consider new positions here or on dips near the $100 area. Our first target to take profits is at $104.75. Our second and final target is $109.00. We will plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

Open bullish positions now, above $100

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $100 call (PX1121E100) entry @ $3.90

- or -

Long the May $105 call (PX1121E105) entry @ $1.40

Entry on March 30th at $101.54
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on March 29th, 2011


Quality Systems Inc. - QSII - close: 83.34 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 78.60
Target(s): 87.25, 94.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -44.4%, and - 2.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: QSII continues to trade near its highs but did not make much progress on Thursday. There is no change from my prior comments. I am tempted to move our first profit target down from $87.25 toward the $85 area.

Momentum traders could buy this breakout. I would prefer to buy a dip near $81.00.

Prior Comments:
FYI: Readers will be interested to note that the most recent data listed short interest in QSII at almost 28% of the very small 17.5 million-share float. That's definitely a recipe for a short squeeze. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for QSII is bullish with a $119 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $85 calls (QSII1116D85) Entry @ $1.35

- or -

Long the June $85 calls (QSII1118F85) Entry @ $3.40

03/24 New stop loss @ 78.60

Entry on March 4th at $81.44
Earnings Date 05/31/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 154 thousand
Listed on March 3rd, 2010


Stericycle Inc. - SRCL - close: 88.67 change: +0.49

Stop Loss: 84.90
Target(s): 93.50, 98.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -18.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: SRCL dipped under the $88 level before bouncing back late this afternoon. Shares look poised to move higher. I would still consider new bullish positions now at current levels.

More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss. Our targets are the $93.50 and $98.50 levels but we will plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $90 calls (SRCL1121E90) Entry @ $2.50

Entry on March 30th at $88.93
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 479 thousand
Listed on March 29th, 2011


Whole Foods Market Inc. - WFMI - close: 65.90 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 58.49
Target(s): 64.75, 69.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +178.4%, and +73.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: Thursday proved to be a very quiet day for WFMI with the stock hovering in a narrow range near $66.00. There is no change from my prior comments. Our final target is $69.00 but I would not open positions at current levels. Wait for a pull back. More conservative traders may want to bump up their stop loss.

Our upside targets are $64.75 and $69.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WFMI is bullish with an $86 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $65 calls (WFMI1116D65) Entry @ $0.65

- or -

Long the May $65 calls (WFMI1121E65) Entry @ $2.25

03/30/11 1st Target Hit @ 64.75, April $65 call @ 1.25 (+92.3%)
May $65 call @ 3.50 (+55.5%)
03/29/11 new stop loss @ 59.49
03/26/11 New stop loss @ 58.49

Entry on March 21 at $61.55
Earnings Date 05/11/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Wellpoint Inc. - WLP - close: 69.79 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 65.75
Target(s): 72.25, 74.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/31 update: WLP saw a brief dip this morning but shares quickly recovered. The stock bounced back toward resistance near $70.00. We currently have two triggers to buy calls. One is a buy the dip trigger at $68.25. The second is a breakout trigger at $70.25. If triggered on the dip, we'll use a stop at $65.75. If triggered on the breakout we'll move the stop to $66.75. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

FYI: Readers may want to keep their position size small.

Trigger @ 68.25 or $70.25

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the April $70 call (WLP1116D70) current ask $1.23

- or -

Buy the May $70 call (WLP1121E70) current ask $2.45

Entry on March xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on March 26th, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Everest Re Group Ltd. - RE - close: 88.18 change: +4.75

Stop Loss: 84.25
Target(s): 76.00, 71.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -65.0%, and -48.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: What in the world happened to shares of RE today? The stock exploded higher at the open and just kept climbing. RE pushed through resistance at its exponential 200-dma, resistance near $84.00, 85.00, $86,00, its 30, 50, and 100-dma. What's really strange is that I could not find any news to account for this big move higher in RE. There were no new press releases. Shares of XL, PRE, RNR, and MRH did show strength but nothing like the move in Everest. Furthermore none of them had any news out today with the exception of RNR, which garnered some positive analyst comments.

The action in RE today looks like a short squeeze but the most recent data did not list very much short interest in RE's stock (granted this data was dated prior to the Japan earthquake news).

Our stop loss was hit at $84.25 early Thursday morning so the play is closed.

Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Small Bearish Positions -

April $80 PUTs (RE1116P80) Entry @ $1.00, Exit @ 0.15 (-85%)

- or -

May $80 PUTs (RE1121Q80) Entry @ $2.50, Exit @ 1.00 (-60%)*

03/31 Stopped out @ 84.25, Options @ -85% and -60%*
*exit is an estimate, the May put did not trade today.

chart:

Entry on March 23rd at $81.43
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 381 thousand
Listed on March 22nd, 2011