Editor's Note:

Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits in our GLD gold ETF position immediately.

-James

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Acme Packet Inc. - APKT - close: 82.61 change: +0.59

Stop Loss: 74.45
Target(s): 89.00, 97.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +16.2% and + 6.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: Our new play in APKT is off to a decent start. Shares gapped down lower at the open on Friday setting our entry point at $81.20. Traders bought the dip although the rally failed to close over its high set on Wednesday. I do not see any changes from my prior comments.

This remains an aggressive, higher-risk trade. I would look for dips in the $81-77.50 zone as a new entry point to buy calls. Let's keep our position size small to limit our risk. Broken resistance at $75.00 should be new support.

Our upside targets are $89.00 and $97.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for APKT is bullish with a $95 target.

- Suggested Positions - (SMALL POSITIONS)

Long the May $85 call (APKT1121E85) Entry @ $2.28

- or -

Long the June $85 call (APKT1118F85) Entry @ $4.49

chart:

Entry on April 29th at $81.20
Earnings Date 04/26/11
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on April 28th, 2011


Deere & Co - DE - close: 97.50 change: +1.59

Stop Loss: 92.49
Target(s): 99.70
Current Option Gain/Loss: +54.0%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: DE's rival CAT delivered some impressive earnings that sent the stock to a new high. Shares of DE reacted with a +1.6% gain. We still have a couple of weeks before DE reports earnings so I am adding a secondary target at $104.00. We'll take profits at our first target at $99.70 and then exit completely at $104.00. I would expect some profit taking when DE hits the $100 level again. DE looks poised to rally from current levels but I would prefer to launch new positions on a dip near $95.00. We will not hold positions over the mid May earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $97.50 call (DE1121E97.5) Entry @ $1.61

04/30 Adjusted targets to $99.70 and $104.00.

chart:

Entry on April 21st at $95.25
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
Listed on April 20th, 2011


Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 67.09 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 63.75
Target(s): 69.50, 74.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +13.6% & + 6.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: The trading action in FAST the last two days has been disappointing. The major averages are inching to new multi-year highs but FAST is stuck consolidating sideways. I'd wait for a new dip or bounce in the $66-65 zone before considering new positions.

More conservative traders might want to raise their stops. Our targets are $69.50 and $74.00. We should expect the $70.00 area to offer some resistance and FAST will likely pull back on the first test of $70.

FYI: FAST is due to split 2-for-1 on May 23rd. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for FAST is bullish with a $72 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $65.00 calls (FAST1121E65) Entry @ $2.20

- or -

Long the June $70.00 calls (FAST1118F70) Entry @ $0.75

chart:

Entry on April 26th at $66.25
Earnings Date 04/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


Fortune Brands - FO - close: 65.08 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 61.75
Target(s): 67.50, 69.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 10.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: FO is slowly inching higher and closed at new two-year highs on Friday. Unfortunately we are running out of time with this trade and FO has not been moving very fast. The earnings report is Thursday, May 5th before the opening bell. This means we need to exit on Wednesday at the close to avoid holding over earnings. More conservative traders might want to consider inching up their stop loss.

(Small Positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long the May $65.00 call (FO1121E65) Entry @ $1.00

chart:

Entry on April 26th at $64.00
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 973 thousand
Listed on April 5th, 2011


Fossil Inc. - FOSL - close: 95.78 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 91.95
Target(s): 99.75, 104.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -15.0%, and - 6.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: Unfortunately, in spite of trading near all-time highs, shares of FOSL have been going nowhere the last several days. Traders have been buying dips near the rising 20-dma, which happened twice more this past week. Maybe FOSL is ready for another leg higher but I am growing cautious on this stock and would hesitate to open new positions here. The major market indices look short-term overbought and due for a dip. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stop loss higher. The May 10th earnings date is still unconfirmed.

Keep positions small. Our first target is $99.75. The $100.00 mark is probably round-number, psychological resistance. We'll set a secondary target at $104.75 but that might be wishful thinking.

(small positions only) - Suggested Positions -

Long the May $100 call (FOSL1121E100) Entry @ $2.65

- or -

Long the June $100 call (FOSL1118F100) Entry @ $3.75

chart:

Entry on April 20th at $95.60
Earnings Date 05/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 858 thousand
Listed on April 13th, 2011


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 152.37 change: +2.55

Stop Loss: 149.75
Target(s): ---.--, 154.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +318.4%, and +302.2%
2nd Option Position Gain/loss: +420.2% and +386.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: The rally in gold is accelerating again. Gold hit a new all-time high of $1,570 an ounce on an intraday basis this Friday before settling near $1,556. This pushed shares of the GLD gold ETF past round-number resistance at the $150.00 mark. The high for the GLD on Friday was $153.03. Our target to exit is $154.50. Gold is looking VERY short-term overbought here. All of our options are up over +300%. Readers may want to seriously consider taking some profits right here and now. I am raising our stop loss up to $149.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $145 call (GLD1121E145) Entry @ $1.84

- or -

Long the June $150 call (GLD1118F150) Entry @ $1.33

- Second Entry Point, April 12th, Entry April 13th -

Long the May $145 call (GLD1121E145) Entry @ $1.48

- or -

Long the June $150 call (GLD1118F150) Entry @ $1.10

04/30 New stop loss @ 149.75, consider taking profits now!
04/27 New stop loss @ 141.90
04/26 UPDATE: The gap down on Tuesday morning affected our exit prices. May $145 call @ +58.6% and +97.2%. June $150 calls @ +68.4% and +103.6%
04/25 Take Profits Now. Sell all or part of our position. Options are at: May $145 calls $3.50 (+90.2% & +136.4%), June $150 calls $2.76 (+107.5% & +150.9%)
04/20 New stop loss @ 139.90

chart:

Entry on April 6th at $142.40
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 12.5 million
Listed on April 5th, 2011


Google Inc. - GOOG - close: 537.97 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 518.75
Target(s): 549.00, 558.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +66.6%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: It was a good week for GOOG with a rebound from about $522 to over $544. Shares are finally back above their simple 10-dma and nearing potential resistance at the bottom of the gap down near $547.00. I am adjusting our exit strategy since the $547-550 zone could be resistance. Let's plan on taking some money off the table (sell part of our position) at $549.00 and we'll exit the remainder at $558. More aggressive traders could aim for the 200-dma or the 50-dma as their overhead targets.

I am not suggesting new positions at these levels.

Prior Comments:
This is a very aggressive, higher-risk trade. Keep positions small.

(Very Small Positions) Suggested Positions:

Long the May $550 call (GOOG1121E550) Entry @ $3.00

04/30 Adjusted exit strategy. First target at $549.00. Final target at $558.00.

chart:

Entry on April 25th at $525.25
Earnings Date 04/14/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


International Business Machines - IBM - close: 170.58 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 164.75
Target(s): 174.00, 179.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see Trigger

Comments:
04/30 update: IBM rallied to another all-time high on Friday. This time shares hit $173.00 before retreating lower. The move looks like a short-term top. That's fine since we're waiting for a dip.

I am suggesting we buy calls on a dip at $167.50. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $164.75. Our targets are $174.00 and $179.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for IBM is bullish with a $208 target.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ 167.50

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the June $170 calls (IBM1118F170)

chart:

Entry on April xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/19/11
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on April 27th, 2011


Intuit - INTU - close: 55.56 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 53.45
Target(s): 58.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -20.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: INTU has been consolidating sideways under $56.00 for days now. Optimistically the stock seems to be coiling for a new breakout higher. Readers may want to wait for a close over $56 before considering new positions. Please note that I am consolidating our two targets (57.50 and 59.75) into just one target at $58.75. We do not want to hold over the mid May earnings date.

I would keep our position size small to limit our risk (1/2 or less than your normal trade size).

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $55.00 call (INTU1121E55) Entry @ $2.40

04/30 Adjusted target to $58.75

chart:

Entry on April 20th at $55.25
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on April 14th, 2011


Jos. A Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 52.42 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 49.95
Target(s): 59.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 42.8% and -20.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: There is no change from my prior comments on JOSB. The stock has spent most of last week consolidating sideways in a very narrow range above the $52 level. The stock is trading near all-time highs set this past week but momentum has clearly stalled. That's disappointing with the major averages marching higher. Shares might be setting up for a dip toward support near $50.00. I am growing cautious on JOSB and would hesitate to launch new positions today. We can look for short-term technical support at the 20-dma (currently near $51.35). Our target is $59.50.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in JOSB at more than 21% of the small 27.3 million-share float. Together the increase the risk of a short squeeze.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $55 calls (JOSB1121E55) entry @ $0.70

- or -

Long the June $55 calls (JOSB1118F55) entry @ $1.75

chart:

Entry on April 26th at $52.75
Earnings Date 06/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 510 thousand
Listed on April 25th, 2011


Ross Stores Inc. - ROST - close: 73.69 change: -0.33

Stop Loss: 69.75
Target(s): 77.25, 79.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: It was a bullish week for ROST with a breakout past resistance to new highs. I would still consider new positions now or you can wait for a possible dip into the $73.50-73.00 zone. We do not want to hold over the mid May earnings report so I am suggesting we use the May calls, which expire after the 20th.

Our first target is $77.25. Our secondary target is $79.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ROST is bullish with a $97 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $72.50 calls (ROST1121E72.5) Entry @ $2.25

chart:

Entry on April 28th at $73.55
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


United Technologies Corp. - UTX - close: 89.58 change: +0.57

Stop Loss: 83.49
Target(s): 89.50, 94.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
04/30 update: Industrial names were strong again on Friday. We do not want to chase UTX at current levels. The $90.00 level could be psychological, round-number resistance. We want to wait for a little correction. Broken resistance near $86.00 should be new support. I am adjusting our buy-the-dip trigger from $86.25 to $86.50. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $83.49. Our targets are $89.50 and $94.00.

Buy-the-dip Trigger @ $86.50

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the June $90 calls (UTX1118F90)

chart:

Entry on April xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/20/11
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
Listed on April 27th, 2011


Vertex Pharmaceuticals - VRTX - close: 55.05 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: 49.90
Target(s): 51.85, 58.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +108.0%
Time Frame: about 2, maybe 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: We only have two days left. I was expecting a bit more profit taking on Friday but VRTX held up pretty well after big gains early in the week. The company is due to report earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell. We do not want to hold over earnings so we'll plan on exiting this Tuesday at the close. I strongly suggest that more conservative traders exit now and lock in a gain. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Very Small Bullish Positions -

Long the May $50.00 calls (VRTX1121E50) Entry @ $2.50

04/30 Consider an early exit now to lock in a gain.
04/27 New stop loss @ 49.90
04/26 1st Target Hit @ 51.85, Option @ $3.40 (+36%)

chart:

Entry on April 10th at $48.28
Earnings Date 05/03/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on April 9th, 2011


PUT Play Updates

Apollo Group Inc. - APOL - close: 40.03 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 42.55
Target(s): 38.15, 35.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -10.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: APOL is still underperforming the rest of the market. The stock did seem to find support again near $40.00 this past week. There is no change from my prior comments. More conservative traders may want to exit this trade immediately since the market's trend is clearly higher. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our profit targets are $38.15 and $35.50.
The Point & Figure chart for APOL is bearish with a $31 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $40.00 puts (APOL1121Q40) Entry @ $1.24

04/19 New stop loss @ 42.55

chart:

Entry on April 13th at $41.21
Earnings Date 06/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on April 12th, 2011