Editor's Note:

Our SLV put play has hit our final exit target as commodities surge lower due to a variety of factors. The big oversold bounce in the dollar didn't help. IBM hit our trigger to buy calls. ROST hit our first profit target. I am suggesting an early exit in the APOL put play.

-James

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 346.75 change: -2.82

Stop Loss: 334.40
Target(s): 359.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
05/05 update: AAPL is still holding up pretty well. The market's suffered another loss and AAPL gave up -0.8% but has not yet broken recent support near $345. Although that could happen soon if the market continues to drop. We will keep our entry point at $341.00 but more conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss.

Our upside target is $359.00. More aggressive traders could aim higher. A breakout past the February highs near $365 might portend a run toward the $400 level.

Buy-the-dip Trigger @ $341.00

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the June $350 calls (AAPL1118F350)

Entry on May xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 16.6 million
Listed on May 2nd, 2011


Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 65.92 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 63.75
Target(s): 69.50, 74.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -29.5% & -26.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: FAST continues to resist the widespread profit taking in the stock market. Shares are hovering near support in the $65.00-66.00 area. If the stock market continues to sink tomorrow then we may want to look for FAST to test the $64 area.

Our targets are $69.50 and $74.00. We should expect the $70.00 area to offer some resistance and FAST will likely pull back on the first test of $70.

FYI: FAST is due to split 2-for-1 on May 23rd. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for FAST is bullish with a $72 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $65.00 calls (FAST1121E65) Entry @ $2.20

- or -

Long the June $70.00 calls (FAST1118F70) Entry @ $0.75

Entry on April 26th at $66.25
Earnings Date 04/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


Google Inc. - GOOG - close: 534.27 change: -1.52

Stop Loss: 518.75
Target(s): 549.00, 558.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -15.0%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: GOOG didn't move much on Thursday. The stock is hovering in the $530-540 range, which is somewhat impressive given the declines in the NASDAQ. If the $530 level breaks then GOOG should find support near $520. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Currently our targets are at $549.00 and $558.00. FYI: The high today was $545.73.

Prior Comments:
This is a very aggressive, higher-risk trade. Keep positions small.

(Very Small Positions) Suggested Positions:

Long the May $550 call (GOOG1121E550) Entry @ $3.00

04/30 Adjusted exit strategy. First target at $549.00. Final target at $558.00.

Entry on April 25th at $525.25
Earnings Date 04/14/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


International Business Machines - IBM - close: 168.46 change: -2.16

Stop Loss: 164.75
Target(s): 174.00, 179.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 10.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: IBM dipped just low enough today to hit our buy-the-dip trigger at $167.50. Our trade is open with a stop at $164.75. I would still consider new positions now or more conservative traders could wait for a dip closer to $166.00 instead. Our targets are $174.00 and $179.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for IBM is bullish with a $208 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the June $170 calls (IBM1118F170) Entry @ $2.60

chart:

Entry on May 5th at $167.50
Earnings Date 04/19/11
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on April 27th, 2011


Intuit - INTU - close: 53.98 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 53.45
Target(s): 58.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -56.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: It should not be a surprise given the market's recent sell-off but the action in INTU looks bearish. The stock is trying to hold support near the $54 area but if the market drops again on Friday we could see INTU hit our stop loss at $53.45. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the mid May earnings date.

I would keep our position size small to limit our risk (1/2 or less than your normal trade size).

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $55.00 call (INTU1121E55) Entry @ $2.40

04/30 Adjusted target to $58.75

Entry on April 20th at $55.25
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on April 14th, 2011


Jos. A Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 52.03 change: +1.33

Stop Loss: 49.95
Target(s): 59.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 57.1% and -28.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: Several major retailers reported April same-store sales numbers today. Overall the trend was better than expected. This positive news added with the huge drop in oil prices today helped fuel a bounce in JOSB (+2.6%). I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in JOSB at more than 21% of the small 27.3 million-share float. Together the increase the risk of a short squeeze.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $55 calls (JOSB1121E55) entry @ $0.70

- or -

Long the June $55 calls (JOSB1118F55) entry @ $1.75

Entry on April 26th at $52.75
Earnings Date 06/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 510 thousand
Listed on April 25th, 2011


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 59.87 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 57.75
Target(s): 62.75, 67.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: -14.2% & - 3.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: There wasn't much follow through on yesterday's reversal pattern. ORLY dipped to $59.00 and bounced. The stock actually managed a new three-month high on an intraday basis. I remain cautious on launching new positions given the market's recent weakness but today's trading in ORLY is encouraging. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested (Small) Positions -

Long the May $60 calls (ORLY1121E60) Entry @ $1.05

- or -

Long the June $60 calls (ORLY1118F60) Entry @ $1.65

Entry on May 4th at $60.15
Earnings Date 04/27/11
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 30th, 2011


Powershares QQQ ETF - QQQ - close: 58.28 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 56.45
Target(s): 64.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 5.0% & - 0.0%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: If you missed our entry point yesterday you got another chance today. Actually you got a couple. The QQQs dipped to $58.15 this morning and then when the midday rally rolled over the Qs fell to an intraday low of $58.08. I'm still in a buy-the-dip mode but more conservative and cautious traders might want to wait for a dip near $57.50 or $57.00 before initiating positions. Our upside target is $64.00. The Qs don't move very fast so we'll have to be patient.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the June $60 calls (QQQ1118F60) Entry @ 0.59

- or -

Long the July $60 calls (QQQ1116G60) Entry @ 1.00

Entry on May 4th at $58.15
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 50 million
Listed on April 30th, 2011


Ross Stores Inc. - ROST - close: 78.55 change: +5.10

Stop Loss: 74.75
Target(s): 77.25, 79.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: +171.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: Target achieved. This morning ROST reported April same-store sales growth of +10%. Analysts were only expecting +5%. Management then raised their earnings guidance and the stock rallied on the news. Shares hit $79.36 intraday. Our first target to take profits was at $77.25. The May $72.50 call was trading with a bid near $5.00. The intraday high for the option was $7.00. I am adjusting our final exit target from $79.50 to $79.90. We will raise our stop loss up to $74.75. We do not want to hold over the mid May earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $72.50 calls (ROST1121E72.5) Entry @ $2.25

05/05 New stop loss @ 74.75. Adjusted 2nd target to $79.90 from $79.50.
05/05 1st Target Hit @ 77.25. Option @ $5.00 (+122.2%)

chart:

Entry on April 28th at $73.55
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


ProShares Ultra(long) S&P 500 - SSO - close: 54.02 change: -0.96

Stop Loss: 52.75
Target(s): 59.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -15.0% and - 9.5%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: Thursday was another rough day for the bulls. The SSO gapped open lower at $54.39 and eventually dipped toward its 30-dma. Tomorrow this ETF could see a lot of volatility as investors react to the April jobs report due out before the bell. I remain bullish here but readers may want to wait for a rise past $55 before initiating new positions. Since the SSO is twice as volatile as the market we want to keep our position size small. Our multi-week target is the $59.00 level.

Small Positions Only - Suggested Positions -

Long the June $56 call (SSO1118F56) Entry @ $1.60

- or -

Long the September $60 call (SSO1117I60) Entry @ $2.00

Entry on May 5th at $54.39
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 11.3 million
Listed on May 4th, 2011


United Technologies Corp. - UTX - close: 88.53 change: -0.85

Stop Loss: 83.49
Target(s): 89.50, 94.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
05/05 update: UTX is still correcting lower. Shares hit $87.90 late this afternoon. There is no change from my prior comments. We want to buy calls on a dip at $86.50. If triggered at $86.50 we'll use a stop loss at $83.49. Our targets are $89.50 and $94.00.

Buy-the-dip Trigger @ $86.50

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the June $90 calls (UTX1118F90)

Entry on April xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/20/11
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
Listed on April 27th, 2011


PUT Play Updates

Molycorp - MCP - close: 68.46 change: -3.55

Stop Loss: 76.15
Target(s): 63.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: only 4 days
New Positions: See below.

Comments:
05/05 update: MCP is moving the right direction but we did not get the best entry point. The stock gapped open lower at $70.05. Shares did close down -4.9% and they will soon be testing potential support at the 30-dma and the mid April lows near $67.50. If you're looking for a new entry point you may want to wait for another failed rally pattern in the $70-72 zone.

Remember, this is a very aggressive play. We only have three days left. We will exit on May 10th at the close to avoid holding over earnings. Plus, MCP has a high amount of short interest.

Small Positions Only!

Long the May $65 put (MCP1121Q65) Entry @ $1.80

Entry on May 5th at $70.05
Earnings Date 05/10/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.3 million
Listed on May 4th, 2011


Panera Bread Co. - PNRA - close: 120.25 change: +1.73

Stop Loss: 123.25
Target(s): 110.50, 102.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -18.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: The big drop in oil prices helped fuel consumer and retail-related names. Lower gas prices means more money in consumers' pockets for other purchases. PNRA rallied toward $122 and its 50-dma and stalled. I'd look for a new drop under $119.50 before initiating new bearish positions. Our targets are the 100-dma (currently near $112.00, we'll take profits at $112.50) and the $102.50 level.

Suggested Positions

Long the June $110 PUTS (PNRA1118R110) Entry @ $1.60

Entry on May 4th at $119.00
Earnings Date 07/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 647 thousand
Listed on May 3rd, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Apollo Group Inc. - APOL - close: 40.16 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 42.11
Target(s): 38.15, 35.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -20.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: I am giving up on APOL. The stock market has seen some pretty sharp declines in recent days. Yet APOL isn't moving. If this stock isn't going to fall when the market is falling then APOL may have found a bottom, although I wouldn't buy it since shares still have resistance near $42 and their 200-dma. I am suggesting an early exit now.

- Suggested Positions -

May $40.00 puts (APOL1121Q40) Entry @ $1.24, Exit @ 0.98 (-20.9%)

05/05 Exit early. Option @ -20.9%)
05/03 new stop loss @ 42.11
05/03 Readers may want to exit early here.
04/19 New stop loss @ 42.55

chart:

Entry on April 13th at $41.21
Earnings Date 06/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on April 12th, 2011


iShares Silver Trust - SLV - close: 33.72 change: -4.55

Stop Loss: n/a
Target(s): 40.15 & 36.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +165.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/05 update: Ouch! Silver got crushed again today. We were expecting a big decline but today's drop was even worse than expected. The SLV is down more than -28% from its closing highs in just five days. It's the worst four (or five) day drop for silver since 1983.

Our final target to exit was hit at $36.25. The play is closed. Our July $40 put was trading with a bid near $5.45 at the time. Readers may want to keep an eye on the $30.00 level. The SLV might be a buy if the ETF can find support near $30.00.

(Small Positions) Suggested Positions -

July $40.00 PUT (SLV1116S40) Entry @ $2.05, Exit 5.45 (+165.8%)

05/05 2nd target hit @ 36.25, Option @ $5.45 (+165.8%)
05/03 1st target hit @ 40.15, Option @ $3.70 (+80.4%)
05/02 Silver dropped and the SLV gapped open lower at $44.10.

chart:

Entry on May 2 at $44.10
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 79 million
Listed on April 30th, 2011