Editor's Note:

The rebound in commodities outshined the bounce in stocks on Monday. Gold, silver, and oil all rallied while stocks slowly drifted higher. I am suggesting an early exit for our MCP put play.

-James

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Apple Inc. - AAPL - close: 347.60 change: +0.94

Stop Loss: 339.40
Target(s): 374.00, 395.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
05/09 update: AAPL underperformed the market on Monday. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were up +0.4% and +0.5% respectively. AAPL only managed +0.2% and spent the entire day churning sideways in a very narrow range. I would expect a breakout one way or the other pretty soon. Currently our plan is to launch bullish positions when AAPL rises to $352.50.

Buy-the-breakout Trigger @ $352.50

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the June $370 calls (AAPL1118F370)

- or -

Buy the July $380 calls (AAPL1116G380)

Entry on May xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 16.6 million
Listed on May 2nd, 2011


Fastenal Co. - FAST - close: 66.78 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 63.75
Target(s): 69.50, 74.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 6.8% & -13.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: The rally in FAST reversed midday and shares pared their gains. FAST seems to be struggling with resistance in the $67.50-67.75 area. Cautious traders might want to use a higher stop loss near $65.00 instead of our stop at $63.75.

Don't forget that May options expire after May 20th.

Our targets are $69.50 and $74.00. We should expect the $70.00 area to offer some resistance and FAST will likely pull back on the first test of $70.

FYI: FAST is due to split 2-for-1 on May 23rd. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for FAST is bullish with a $72 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $65.00 calls (FAST1121E65) Entry @ $2.20

- or -

Long the June $70.00 calls (FAST1118F70) Entry @ $0.75

Entry on April 26th at $66.25
Earnings Date 04/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


Google Inc. - GOOG - close: 537.68 change: +2.38

Stop Loss: 529.00
Target(s): 549.00, 558.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -35.0%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: Traders bought the dip in GOOG again. The last several days have shown investors buying GOOG on dips in the $532-530 zone. Aggressive traders could use today's bounce as an entry point. I am raising our stop loss on this trade to $529.00. We have less than two weeks left with May options set to expire after the 20th. Currently our targets are at $549.00 and $558.00.

Prior Comments:
This is a very aggressive, higher-risk trade. Keep positions small.

(Very Small Positions) Suggested Positions:

Long the May $550 call (GOOG1121E550) Entry @ $3.00

05/09 New stop loss @ 529.00
04/30 Adjusted exit strategy. First target at $549.00. Final target at $558.00.

Entry on April 25th at $525.25
Earnings Date 04/14/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


International Business Machines - IBM - close: 169.10 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 164.75
Target(s): 174.00, 179.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 23.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: IBM didn't see much of a bounce today and it appeared to fail near the $170 level. Readers may want to take a step back and wait for a dip near $166 or a rally past $170.25 as our next entry point. Our targets are $174.00 and $179.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for IBM is bullish with a $208 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the June $170 calls (IBM1118F170) Entry @ $2.60

Entry on May 5th at $167.50
Earnings Date 04/19/11
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on April 27th, 2011


Intuit - INTU - close: 54.14 change: +0.36

Stop Loss: 53.45
Target(s): 58.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -60.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: There is no change from my prior comments on INTU. I am still suggesting that more conservative traders consider an early exit. INTU barely bounced today. For those of us holding on and willing to take the risk, I'm suggesting we plan on exiting on any bounce near resistance at $56.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the mid May earnings date.

I would keep our position size small to limit our risk (1/2 or less than your normal trade size).

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $55.00 call (INTU1121E55) Entry @ $2.40

05/09 consider an early exit
05/07 consider an early exit
04/30 Adjusted target to $58.75

Entry on April 20th at $55.25
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on April 14th, 2011


Jos. A Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 52.84 change: +0.81

Stop Loss: 49.95
Target(s): 59.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 64.2% and -22.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: JOSB displayed some relative strength with a +1.5% gain on Monday. The stock appears poised to breakout higher from this sideways consolidation. The high today was $53.35. Over the weekend I suggested readers wait for a rise to $53.40 as a potential entry point to buy calls. Don't forget that May options expire after the 20th.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in JOSB at more than 21% of the small 27.3 million-share float. Together the increase the risk of a short squeeze.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $55 calls (JOSB1121E55) entry @ $0.70

- or -

Long the June $55 calls (JOSB1118F55) entry @ $1.75

Entry on April 26th at $52.75
Earnings Date 06/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 510 thousand
Listed on April 25th, 2011


NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 53.17 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 50.75
Target(s): 58.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -12.6%
Time Frame: about 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: Monday was a quiet session for NTAP with the stock churning sideways in an 80-cent range. Volume was pretty light today. I would still consider new positions now or you could wait for a dip near the $52.00 level. I do see potential resistance near $55.00, which is the bottom of NTAP's gap down in February and there is potential resistance at the top of the gap near $58.00. However, if the wider market rallies I expect NTAP to power past the $55 level. We're setting our exit target at $58.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NTAP is bullish with a $68 target.

NOTE: We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report. The date is still unconfirmed. This gives is about two or three weeks as our time frame.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the June $55 calls (NTAP1118F55) Entry @ $1.90

Entry on May 9th at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
Listed on May 7th, 2011


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 59.66 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 57.75
Target(s): 62.75, 67.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: -42.8% & -21.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: Late last week ORLY produced what appears to be a short-term reversal. I'm warning readers to expect a dip toward the $59.00 or $58.00 levels of support. No new positions at this time. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested (Small) Positions -

Long the May $60 calls (ORLY1121E60) Entry @ $1.05

- or -

Long the June $60 calls (ORLY1118F60) Entry @ $1.65

Entry on May 4th at $60.15
Earnings Date 04/27/11
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 30th, 2011


Powershares QQQ ETF - QQQ - close: 58.69 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 56.45
Target(s): 64.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 5.0% & - 3.0%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: Monday's action really doesn't tell us much since the QQQs drifted sideways. I would consider bullish positions now but more conservative traders could wait and hope for a dip near the 50-dma closer to the $57.00 level. Our upside target is $64.00. The Qs don't move very fast so we'll have to be patient.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the June $60 calls (QQQ1118F60) Entry @ 0.59

- or -

Long the July $60 calls (QQQ1116G60) Entry @ 1.00

Entry on May 4th at $58.15
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 50 million
Listed on April 30th, 2011


Ross Stores Inc. - ROST - close: 78.58 change: +0.39

Stop Loss: 74.75
Target(s): 77.25, 79.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: +166.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: Shares of ROST garnered an upgrade this morning but I'm not sure it had much effect. Shares are still hovering above the $78 level, which is impressive. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our final target is $79.90. We do not want to hold over the mid May earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the May $72.50 calls (ROST1121E72.5) Entry @ $2.25

05/05 New stop loss @ 74.75. Adjusted 2nd target to $79.90 from $79.50.
05/05 1st Target Hit @ 77.25. Option @ $5.00 (+122.2%)

Entry on April 28th at $73.55
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


ProShares Ultra(long) S&P 500 - SSO - close: 54.90 change: +0.44

Stop Loss: 52.75
Target(s): 59.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 6.2% and - 6.0%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: The markets produced another bounce on Monday but volume was very light, which doesn't inspire any confidence. I remain bullish on the SSO here and would consider new positions but readers may want to consider waiting for another dip near the $54.00 or $53.50 levels as your entry point instead. The SSO is twice as volatile as the market so we want to keep our position size small. Our multi-week target is the $59.00 level.

Small Positions Only - Suggested Positions -

Long the June $56 call (SSO1118F56) Entry @ $1.60

- or -

Long the September $60 call (SSO1117I60) Entry @ $2.00

Entry on May 5th at $54.39
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 11.3 million
Listed on May 4th, 2011


Union Pacific - UNP - close: 102.47 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 98.95
Target(s): 109.00, 114.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: Traders bought the dip in UNP this morning near $101.60 but the bounce wasn't very strong and volume was very light. I am still suggesting new positions here but readers may want to seriously consider waiting for a dip near the $100.50 area as their entry point instead. Our targets are $109.00 and $114.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for UNP is bullish with a $116 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the June $105 call (UNP1118F105) Entry @ $1.62

Entry on May 9th at $102.19
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on May 7th, 2011


United Technologies Corp. - UTX - close: 89.52 change: +0.31

Stop Loss: 83.49
Target(s): 89.50, 94.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
05/09 update: There is no change from my prior comments on UTX. We are waiting for a dip to $86.50 as our entry point to buy calls. More aggressive traders might want to consider jumping in early on a dip near $88.00 instead.

Buy-the-dip Trigger @ $86.50

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the June $90 calls (UTX1118F90)

Entry on April xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/20/11
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
Listed on April 27th, 2011


SPDR Oil & Gas ETF - XOP - close: 59.80 change: +1.83

Stop Loss: 55.99
Target(s): 61.00, 65.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +38.2% & +10.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: Our aggressive trade on the XOP is off to a good start. Oil saw a bounce today, which helped fuel gains in the energy sector. The XOP opened at $58.32 and rallied toward short-term, round-number resistance at $60.00. I would not launch new positions at these levels. Wait for another dip or bounce near $58.00.

Our first target is $61.00. Our second, more aggressive target is $65.00 but the XOP will have to climb through a cloud over overhead resistance to get there.

I would keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions - (Small positions)

Long the May $58.00 call (XOP1121E58) Entry @ $1.70

- or -

Long the June $60.00 call (XOP1118F60) Entry @ $1.85

Entry on May 9th at $58.32
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on May 7th, 2011


PUT Play Updates

Panera Bread Co. - PNRA - close: 118.84 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 123.25
Target(s): 110.50, 102.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -25.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/09 update: So far so good. After last week's failed rally at technical resistance PNRA continued to sink today. I do want to remind readers that this is an aggressive trade. If the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rally higher it's going to be tough to make money on PNRA with puts. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our targets are the 100-dma (currently near $112.00, we'll take profits at $112.50) and the $102.50 level.

Suggested Positions

Long the June $110 PUTS (PNRA1118R110) Entry @ $1.60

Entry on May 4th at $119.00
Earnings Date 07/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 647 thousand
Listed on May 3rd, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Molycorp - MCP - close: 71.60 change: +2.67

Stop Loss: 76.15
Target(s): 63.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -22.2%
Time Frame: only 4 days
New Positions: See below.

Comments:
05/09 update: Abandon ship! I'm giving up on MCP. Shares were showing weakness this morning but the stock reversed after dipping to $65.69. The big bounce carried it back above the $71 level. We were planning to exit tomorrow anyway. Instead of waiting until the closing bell we want to exit immediately.

Small Positions Only!

May $65 put (MCP1121Q65) Entry @ $1.80, Exit @ 1.40 (-22.2%)

05/09 Exit Early. MCP @ 71.60, Option @ $1.40 (-22.2%)

chart:

Entry on May 5th at $70.05
Earnings Date 05/10/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.3 million
Listed on May 4th, 2011