Editor's Note:

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit our exit target at $120.50. Meanwhile I've updated a couple of stop losses tonight.

-James

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Boeing Co. - BA - close: 70.16 change: -0.85

Stop Loss: 69.25
Target(s): 77.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -59.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: BA reversed again with another dip toward the bottom of its trading range. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
There is potential resistance at $75.00 and more conservative traders may want to exit there. I am aiming for $77.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BA is bullish with a $79 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2012Jan $75 call (BA1221A75) entry $1.08

12/13/11 trade opened
12/12/11 adjusted stop loss to $69.25
12/12/11 trade did not open, try again.

Entry on December 13 at $71.67
Earnings Date 02/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on December 10, 2011


OpenTable, Inc. - OPEN - close: 39.93 change: -0.22

Stop Loss: 38.40
Target(s): 48.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/19 update: There was no follow through on Friday's rally in OPEN. Yet shares didn't see that much of a decline today either. We're still waiting for a breakout past resistance that could produce a short squeeze.

The most recent data listed short interest at 53% of the very small 16.2 million-share float. I am suggesting we buy calls if OPEN trades at $41.55. This can be a volatile stock so we'll use a wide stop loss at $38.40. Our target is the simple 100-dma but we'll tentatively put our exit target at $48.50. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Trigger @ 41.55 (small positions)

- Suggested Positions -

buy the 2012Jan $45 call (OPEN1221A45)

Entry on December xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Listed on December 17, 2011


Phillip Morris Intl. - PM - close: 76.20 change: +0.60

Stop Loss: 74.25
Target(s): 79.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 63.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: PM is slowly inching higher toward resistance at $77.00. I would not open new positions with the stock just under resistance.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $78.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PM is bullish with a $95 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2012 Jan $75 call (PM1221A75) Entry $1.12

12/17 new stop loss @ 74.25
12/05 Call is up +100%, readers may want to exit now!
12/03 new stop loss @ 73.75
11/30 new stop loss @ 71.40
11/23 adjusted stop loss to $69.49
11/22 trade opened. PM opened at $72.11

Entry on November 22 at $72.11
Earnings Date 02/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.3 million
Listed on November 19, 2011


Boston Beer Co. Inc. - SAM - close: 104.23 change: +1.18

Stop Loss: 98.75
Target(s): 109.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 9.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: Shares of SAM continue to bubble higher. The stock is trading near all-time highs and on the verge of breaking out past resistance near $105.00.

Earlier Comments:
Our exit target is $109.50. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SAM is bullish with a $117 target. NOTE: The most recent data listed short interest at 22% of SAM's extremely small 8.3 million-share float. That's definitely a recipe for a short squeeze.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long JAN $105 call (SAM1221A105) Entry $2.05

12/03/11 new stop loss @ 98.75
12/02/11 trade triggered at $102.00

Entry on December 02 at $102.00
Earnings Date 03/08/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 72.3 thousand
Listed on December 01, 2011


Varian Medical Sys. - VAR - close: 63.20 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 62.49
Target(s): 69.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -54.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: There is no change from my weekend comments on VAR and almost no change in the stock price. Monday morning's early rally failed near short-term resistance at $64.00 again. I am cautious on this stock and not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

Long JAN $65 call (VAR1221A65) entry $2.65

12/14/11 adjust stop loss to $62.49

Entry on December 13 at $65.25
Earnings Date 01/25/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on December 12, 2011


PUT Play Updates

AGCO Corp. - AGCO - close: 40.32 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 42.75
Target(s): 35.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/19 update: AGCO is still flirting with a breakdown under support near $40.00. The intraday low today was $39.95. I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $39.90.

You could argue that AGCO is already short-term oversold so we'll try and limit our risk by keeping position size small. We'll start with a stop loss at $42.75, just above Wednesday's high. Our target is $35.25.

Trigger @ 39.90

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jan $40 PUT (AGCO1221M40)

Entry on December xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on December 15, 2011


BMC Software Inc. - BMC - close: 32.93 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 35.05
Target(s): 30.05
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/19 update: BMC is on the verge of a major breakdown. The stock dipped to $32.86 this afternoon. The close under $33.00 is bearish. Readers may want to buy puts now. We've been suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $32.75.

We'll start this trade with a wide stop at $35.05. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss instead. Our target is $30.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BMC is bearish with a $29 target.

Trigger @ 32.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the 2012Jan $32.50 PUT (BMC1221M32.5)

Entry on December xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on December 14, 2011


Check Point Software - CHKP - close: 53.05 change: -1.13

Stop Loss: 55.05
Target(s): 48.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -37.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: The rebound in CHKP has already run out of steam. The stock spiked to $54.83 this morning and quickly reversed. Shares underperformed the market with a -2.0% decline. This move looks like a new bearish entry point to buy puts.

Earlier Comments:
There is potential support near $51.00 but we're aiming for the $48.00 level. More aggressive traders could aim lower. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CHKP is bearish with a $46 target.

(Small Positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long Jan $50 PUT (CHKP1221M50) Entry $1.20

12/13/11 new stop loss @ 55.05

Entry on December 09 at $53.29
Earnings Date 01/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on December 08, 2011


Coach, Inc. - COH - close: 56.92 change: -0.67

Stop Loss: 60.10
Target(s): 51.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 3.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/19 update: COH opened at $58.08 this morning. The stock tried to rally but struggled with short-term resistance at $58.50 several times before finally rolling over and sinking to new lows. I would still consider new positions now. Our multi-week target is the $51.00 level. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for COH is bearish with a $52 target but this could grow.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2012Jan $55 PUT (COH1221M55) Entry $1.45

Entry on December 19 at $58.08
Earnings Date 01/25/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
Listed on December 17, 2011


Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 47.06 change: -1.03

Stop Loss: 50.65
Target(s): 45.15
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 4.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: FLR broke down to new relative lows after three days of hovering new support at $48.00. We are lowering our stop loss down to $50.65. Our exit target is $45.15.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small because FLR is arguably already oversold but that doesn't mean it can't get more oversold. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FLR is bearish with a $43 target.

- Suggested Positions - (Small Positions)

Long 2012Jan $45 PUT (FLR1221M45) entry $1.20

12/19/11 new stop loss @ 50.65

Entry on December 14 at $49.35
Earnings Date 02/23/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on December 13, 2011


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 18.12 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 20.55
Target(s): 16.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 28.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: JNPR spent the session slowly sinking lower and tagged new two-month lows by the closing bell. I am concerned that JNPR is very short-term oversold here. Readers may want to go ahead and take profits early now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long 2012Jan $17.50 PUT (JNPR1221M17.5) entry $0.57

12/17/11 readers may want to take profits now. JNPR looks short-term oversold
12/14/11 new stop loss @ 20.55
12/12/11 JNPR gapped open lower at $19.58, opening our trade. Stop loss at $20.75

Entry on December 12 at $19.58
Earnings Date 01/24/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on December 10, 2011


Monsanto Co - MON - close: 67.45 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 71.05
Target(s): 60.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -19.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: MON tried to rally again this morning but the bounce reversed near the stock's exponential 200-dma. Readers might want to consider lowering their stop loss closer to the $70.00 level.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is $60.50. More conservative traders may want to exit near $63.00 instead. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for MON is bearish with a $60 target.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long 2012Jan $65 PUT (MON1221M65) entry $2.05

Entry on December 14 at $67.35
Earnings Date 01/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
Listed on December 13, 2011


Thermo Fisher Scientific - TMO - close: 43.54 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 46.15
Target(s): 42.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Dec$45p: +111.1% & Jan$45P: +53.5%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: For the second day in a row shares of TMO saw the early morning rally reverse near $44.50. TMO closed near its lows for the day, which doesn't bode well for tomorrow. Our exit target is $42.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

- Suggested Positions -

(December position closed 12/15/11)
DEC $45 put (TMO1117X45) Entry $0.45 exit $0.95 (+111.1%)

- or -

Long JAN $45 put (TMO1221M45) Entry $1.40

12/15/11 planned exit for Dec. $45 put. bid @ 0.95 (+111.1%)
12/14/11 Prepare to exit Dec. $45 puts at the open tomorrow, current bid on these puts is $1.20 (+166.6%)
12/14/11 new stop loss @ 46.15
12/05/11 TMO gapped open higher at $47.10

Entry on December 05 at $47.10
Earnings Date 02/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
Listed on December 03, 2011


Watson Pharmaceuticals - WPI - close: 59.65 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 63.05
Target(s): 56.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Dec$60p: -12.5% & Jan$60p: + 5.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: WPI slowly sank to new relative lows and closed under round-number support at $60.00 today. This should be a good sign for bearish traders tomorrow. However, we don't know yet how the market my react to news out just after the close today that WPI was teaming up with Amgen (AMGN) on some cancer medicines. I am not expecting much of a reaction in the stock price.

We are adjusting our stop loss down to $63.05.

- Suggested Positions -

(December position closed 12/15/11)
DEC $60 PUT (WPI1117X60) Entry $0.80 exit $0.70 (-12.5%)

- or -

Long JAN $60 PUT (WPI1221M60) Entry $2.00

12/19/11 new stop loss @ 63.05
12/15/11 planned exit for Dec. $60 puts, bid $0.70 (-12.5%)
12/14/11 Prepare to exit Dec. $60 puts at the open tomorrow, current bid on these puts is $0.65

Entry on December 07 at $61.75
Earnings Date 02/14/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on December 03, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY - close: 120.29 change: -1.30

Stop Loss: 125.55
Target(s): 120.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +14.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/19 update: Target achieved. The S&P 500 and the SPY continued to sink. The ETF hit our exit target at $120.50 late this afternoon.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -

2012Jan $120 PUT (SPY1221M120) Entry $2.67 exit 3.05 (+14.2%)

12/19/11 exit target hit @ 120.50, option @ 3.05 (+14.2%)
12/17/11 new stop loss @ 125.55
12/02/11 trade opened at $126.12 (gap higher), trigger was 126.00

chart:

Entry on December 02 at $126.12
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 224 million
Listed on November 30, 2011