Editor's Note:

The stock market was closed on Friday but the futures market was open and the S&P futures plunged on the less than expected jobs data.

We'll have to wait and see if investor sentiment changes before Monday morning but at the moment it looks like stocks are poised to gap down or spike down at the open on Monday.

We could see several of our bullish plays get stopped out.

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Allergan Inc. - AGN - close: 94.82 change: -0.45

Stop Loss: 92.25
Target(s): 99.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr92.5c: -19.7% & Apr95c: -37.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: AGN delivered another quiet session on Thursday. Shares actually spent most of the week in a relatively narrow range. There is short-term support near $94.00 and near $92.50ish but if the market plunges on Monday I would expect AGN to hit our stop loss at $92.25. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AGN is bullish with a $110 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $92.50 call (AGN1221D92.5) Entry $3.55

- or -

Long Apr $95 call (AGN1221D95) Entry $1.85

03/27/12 AGN hit our breakout trigger at $95.25
03/22/12 adjusted entry point strategy to include a buy-the-dip trigger at $90.50 and a breakout trigger at $95.25.
03/15/12 not open yet. New buy-the-dip trigger @ 92.25
03/14/12 not open yet. try again.

chart:

Entry on March 27 at $95.25
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on March 13, 2012


Affiliated Managers Group - AMG - close: 113.18 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 111.45
Target(s): 119.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: up to the late April earnings report.
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/07 update: AMG also produced a calm performance on Thursday. Nimble traders might want to consider buying a dip near its 40-dma near $109.25 with a tight stop loss. The newsletter is suggesting that readers wait for a breakout higher with a trigger to buy calls at $115.50. Our target is $119.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AMG is bullish with a $134 target.

Trigger @ 115.50

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Apr $115 call (AMG1221D115)

- or -

buy the May $120 call (AMG1219E120)

chart:

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/24/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 310 thousand
Listed on April 03, 2012


Check Point Software - CHKP - close: 63.08 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 61.40
Target(s): 68.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr62.5c: -12.9% & May65c: +16.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: CHKP saw a little bit of volatility on Thursday morning and then fell asleep the rest of the session to close almost unchanged. Odds are really good we will see CHKP test short-term support near $62.00 soon. If the market really declines on Monday we'll see CHKP hit our stop loss at $61.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CHKP is bullish with an $88 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $62.50 call (CHKP1221D62.5) Entry $1.55

- or -

Long May $65 call (CHKP1219E65) Entry $1.20

03/31/12 new stop loss @ 61.40
03/23/12 CHKP hit our entry trigger @ 62.25

chart:

Entry on March 23 at $62.25
Earnings Date 04/17/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Listed on March 22, 2012


Cognizant Technology - CTSH - close: 77.29 change: +1.01

Stop Loss: 74.75
Target(s): 82.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr77.5c: -31.4% & May$80c: -15.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: CTSH bucked the trend and showed some relative strength on Thursday with a +1.3% gain. Shares are trading just under resistance in the $77.50-78.00 zone. At this point I'd wait for a new rise past $78.00 before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to inch up their stop loss but I am expecting CTSH to dip toward support near $75.00 on Monday.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CTSH is bullish with a $97 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $77.50 call (CTSH1221D77.5) Entry $1.75

- or -

Long May $80 call (CTSH1219E80) Entry $1.95

03/26/12 CTSH hit our entry trigger at $77.55

chart:

Entry on March 26 at $77.55
Earnings Date 05/04/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
Listed on March 21, 2012


Quest Diagnostics Inc. - DGX - close: 61.17 change: +0.09

Stop Loss: 59.45
Target(s): 66.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr60c: -26.9% & May65c: -28.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on April 18th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: DGX hovered near the $61.00 level on Thursday. If the market spikes lower on Monday I would expect shares to test the $60.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we will plan to exit prior to the April 18th earnings report.

Earlier Comments:
I do want to point out that the 2006 high near $64.70 could be overhead resistance but we are aiming for $66.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DGX is bullish with an $85 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $60 call (DGX1221D60) Entry $2.60

- or -

Long May $65 call (DGX1219E65) Entry $0.70

04/07/12 plan to exit prior to the April 18th earnings report
04/02/12 triggered at $61.55

chart:

Entry on April 02 at $61.55
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 821 thousand
Listed on March 29, 2012


Dollar Tree, Inc. - DLTR - close: 94.56 change: -1.19

Stop Loss: 92.25
Target(s): 98.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr$95c: +15.1% & May95C: +16.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: Overall the trend of March same-store retail sales for most of the major brands reporting on Thursday was positive. This gave the retail sector a boost except for the individual names that missed. DLTR rallied +1.6% and tagged a new record high intraday at $96.64. Cautious traders may want to raise their stops toward the $93.50 area. However, I am concerned that market weakness on Monday could actually produce a spike down toward the $92-90 zone. We have a stop loss at $92.25. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

We are targeting $98.50. More aggressive traders could target the $100 level. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DLTR is bullish with a $122 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $95 call (DLTR1221D95) Entry $1.65

- or -

Long May $95 call (DLTR1219E95) Entry $3.00

03/21/12 DLTR hit our entry trigger at $94.55

chart:

Entry on March 21 at $94.55
Earnings Date 05/17/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on March 20, 2012


J.B.Hunt Transport - JBHT - close: 55.72 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 53.75
Target(s): 59.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr55c: +14.8% & May$55c: + 7.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: The Dow Jones Transportation average managed to post a minor gain on Thursday. JBHT outperformed its peers with a +0.3% gain and the stock hit another new record high.

The stock should have some very short-term support at $55.00, at $54.00 and at its 50-dma. Of course a drop to the 50-dma would stop us out.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for JBHT is bullish with a $69 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $55 call (JBHT1221D55) Entry $1.35

- or -

Long May $55 call (JBHT1219E55) Entry $2.00

chart:

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 729 thousand
Listed on March 28, 2012


iShares Biotech ETF - IBB - close: 123.76 change: +0.35

Stop Loss: 121.75
Target(s): 129.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr125c: -48.6% & May125c: -31.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: The IBB managed a minor bounce on Thursday. I would expect a dip toward support near $120.00 and its 50-dma on Monday and that means we will probably see our trade stopped out since our stop is at $121.75. More aggressive traders could move their stop loss under the $120.00 mark as a bet the IBB will hold that level.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $125 call (IBB1221D125) Entry $1.85

- or -

Long May $125 call (IBB1219E125) Entry $3.20

04/07/12 odds are this trade will get stopped out on Monday
04/03/12 triggered at $125.25

chart:

Entry on April 03 at $125.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 403 thousand
Listed on April 02, 2012


NetEase.com - NTES - close: 57.86 change: +0.98

Stop Loss: 54.45
Target(s): 64.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr55c: +17.5% & Apr60c: - 7.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: Traders bought the dip on Thursday morning and NTES rallied +1.7%. However, if the U.S. market spikes down on Monday I would not be surprised to see NTES dip toward the $55.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $64.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NTES is bullish with a $68 target.

- Suggested (Small) Positions -

Long Apr $55 call (NTES1221D55) Entry $2.80

- or -

Long Apr $60 call (NTES1221D60) Entry $0.70

03/26/12 sold half at the open.
exit bid on Apr. $55 call @ $0.00 (+67.8%)
exit bid on Apr. $60 call @ $1.95 (+178.5%)
03/24/12 new stop loss @ 54.45.
03/24/12 Prepare to sell half of our positions on Monday to lock in a gain.
Apr $55 call bid currently @ $5.20 (+85.7%)
Apr $60 call bid currently @ $1.95 (+178.5%)
03/22/12 readers may want to go ahead and take profits now
Apr $55 call (+50%), Apr $60 call (+100%)

chart:

Entry on March 20 at $56.11
Earnings Date 05/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 584 thousand
Listed on March 19, 2012


O'Reilly Automotive - ORLY - close: 92.65 change: -0.21

Stop Loss: 89.45
Target(s): 98.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr90c: +20.0% & May$90c: +13.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: Trading in ORLY was relatively calm on Thursday. If the market dips as we expect on Monday we could see ORLY fall toward support near $90.00. I would use a bounce near the $90.00 level as a new bullish entry point.

We are targeting a move to $98.50 but more conservative traders may want to take profits near $95.00 instead. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ORLY is bullish with a $103 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $90 call (ORLY1221D90) Entry $2.50

- or -

Long May $90 call (ORLY1219E95) Entry $3.95

04/03/12 new stop loss @ 89.45
03/26/12 triggered at $91.25

chart:

Entry on March 26 at $91.25
Earnings Date 04/25/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 887 thousand
Listed on March 24, 2012


PNC Financial Services - PNC - close: 64.70 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 62.75
Target(s): 69.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: up to its April 18th earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/07 update: PNC looks like it's slowly rolling over. If the market drops on Monday I would not be surprised to see PNC dip toward the $62.00 level or its 50-dma. Currently I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $65.25 with a stop loss at $62.75. Our target is $69.50. However, we will plan to exit prior to the April 18th earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PNC is bullish with a $79 target.

Trigger @ 65.25

- Suggested Positions -

buy the May $65 call (PNC1219E65)

chart:

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
Listed on March 31, 2012


Regeneron Pharma. - REGN - close: 123.44 change: +1.39

Stop Loss: 119.75
Target(s): 127.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 1.6%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/07 update: REGN was showing strength on Thursday likely due to news out that the FDA will put the drug Zaltrap on the fast-track review system. REGN is working with Sanofi on Zaltrap as a treatment for colorectal cancer.

Our trade to buy calls was triggered at $122.50. On a short-term basis REGN should have support near $120.00. Unfortunately if the market spikes down hard on Monday we could see REGN hit our stop loss. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stops.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $125 call (REGN1221D125) entry $3.05

04/05/12 triggered at $122.50

chart:

Entry on April 05 at $122.50
Earnings Date 05/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 774 thousand
Listed on April 04, 2012


Tractor Supply - TSCO - close: 93.35 change: +0.72

Stop Loss: 89.80
Target(s): 98.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Aprl95c: - 3.5% & May95c: - 3.2%
Time Frame: up to the mid April earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: Traders bought the dip in TSCO on Thursday morning near $92.00. The stock rallied to a new record high. Unfortunately shares will likely drop and retest support near $90.00 if the market plunges on Monday due to Friday's jobs data.

Our trade was opened on Thursday at our $93.25 trigger. Readers may want to wait for a bounce off the $90 area before considering new positions.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $95 call (TSCO1221D95) Entry $1.40

- or -

Long May $95 call (TSCO1219E95) Entry $3.05

04/05/12 triggered at $93.25

chart:

Entry on April 05 at $93.25
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 578 thousand
Listed on April 03, 2012


Ulta Salon, Cosmetics - ULTA - close: 95.04 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 89.95
Target(s): 98.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 3.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: ULTA is still drifting higher with a bullish trend of higher lows but the stock has been stuck trying to get through resistance near $95.00. I would expect a drop toward the $92-90 zone on Monday if the market plunges due to the jobs data from Friday. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ULTA is bullish with a $110 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $95 call (ULTA1221D95) Entry $1.65

04/03/12 adjusted target to $98.50
03/28/12 new stop loss @ 89.95
03/26/12 new stop loss @ 89.45
03/24/12 adjusted exit target to $97.50
03/21/12 ULTA hit our trigger at $91.25

chart:

Entry on March 21 at $91.25
Earnings Date 06/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 759 thousand
Listed on March 20, 2012


VMware, Inc. - VMW - close: 113.75 change: +0.78

Stop Loss: 107.25
Target(s): 117.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the April 18th earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/07 update: VMW dipped toward its simple 10-dma and bounced on Thursday. The intraday low was $111.77 so our trade is still not open yet. Trigger was $111.50. Shares actually look poised to move higher from here. However, if the market plunges on the Friday jobs data we could see VMW test the bottom of its rising channel. The 20-dma is at $108.76. I am suggesting we move our trigger to buy calls down to $109.25 and we'll move our stop loss to $107.25.

We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Plus we want to exit prior to the April 18th earnings report.

Buy-the-dip Trigger @ 109.25

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Apr $115 call (VMW1221D115)

04/07/12 not open yet. Adjust buy-the-dip trigger down to $109.25 with a stop loss at $107.25.
04/02/12 not open yet. VMW did not hit our entry point requirement. We're adjusting our entry strategy to use a buy-the-dip trigger at $111.50

chart:

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/17/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on March 31, 2012


PUT Play Updates

Apache Corp. - APA - close: 95.87 change: -1.67

Stop Loss: 100.25
Target(s): 92.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr95.5p: +25.0% & May95p: +15.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: APA continues to sink and shares closed under its simple 150-dma on Thursday. The intraday low was $95.69. I am eliminating the early target to take profits at $95.25. We'll use only one exit target at $92.00. I am also adjusting our stop loss down to $100.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $97.50 PUT (APA1221P97.5) Entry $2.40

- or -

Long May $95 PUT (APA1219Q95) Entry $2.90

04/07/12 reduced exit targets to just one at $92.00
04/07/12 new stop loss @ 100.25

chart:

Entry on March 29 at $98.32
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
Listed on March 28, 2012


iShares Russell 2000 ETF - IWM - close: 81.94 change: -1.33

Stop Loss: 87.51
Target(s): 78.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +15.3%
Time Frame: several weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: Small caps underperformed the major indices again. This time the IWM has closed under technical support at its 50-dma and the trend line of higher lows. That doesn't bode well if you're bullish. The next level of support is the $80.00 mark. Our target to take profits is at $78.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $82 PUT (IWM1216R82) Entry $3.12

03/28/12 triggered at $83.45

chart:

Entry on March 28 at $83.45
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 54.8 million
Listed on March 27, 2012


OpenTable, Inc. - OPEN - close: 40.56 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 42.55
Target(s): 33.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Apr40p -38.6% & May35p: -17.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/07 update: It was a quiet session for OPEN on Thursday. Shares faded from their late morning highs. I remain cautious with the stock above the $40.00 level. Wednesday's low was $39.06. Readers may want to launch new positions if OPEN hits $39.00.

Earlier Comments:
Remember, this is a higher-risk trade. Short interest on OPEN is already at 51% of the small 18.3 million share float. The stock could be prone to short squeezes. Plus, there was some speculation last week that OPEN could be a buy-out target for someone looking for exposure to the online restaurant reservation market. Rumors that OPEN could be a takeover target could always spark a short squeeze.

Our target is $33.00 although readers may want to exit near possible support at the $35.00 level instead. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for OPEN is bearish with a $35 target.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $40 put (OPEN1221P40) Entry $2.20

- or -

Long May $35 PUT (OPEN1219Q35) Entry $1.70

04/02/12 triggered at $39.65

chart:

Entry on April 02 at $39.65
Earnings Date 05/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Listed on March 24, 2012