Editor's Note:

Shares of Sturm Ruger (RGR) hit our exit target today with a spike to new relative highs. Our COF trade is triggered. RGLD has been stopped out. TIF is removed. I am suggesting we exit our IWM trade at the open tomorrow.

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Capital One Financial - COF - close: 54.92 change: +0.56

Stop Loss: 53.45
Target(s): 59.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: May55c: -13.5% & Jun57.5c: -11.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/26 update: Our new trade on COF is open but it's not off to a very good start. Shares rallied to $55.48 intraday but then gave it all back to close in negative territory. Given the bullish close for the major indices the relative weakness in COF is a bit troubling. I'd wait for a new rise past $55.50 before considering new positions. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for COF is bullish with a $62 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long May $55 call (COF1219E55) Entry $1.40

- or -

Long Jun $57.50 call (COF1216F57.5) Entry $1.07

04/26/12 triggered at $55.25

Entry on April 26 at $55.25
Earnings Date 07/11/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on April 25, 2012


Family Dollar Stores - FDO - close: 67.32 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 64.75
Target(s): 69.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +27.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/26 update: FDO drifted higher today to settle with a +0.6% gain, which was in-line with the S&P 500. The stock is nearing potential resistance at its highs from earlier in the week near $68.50. I am not suggesting new positions. Our exit target is $69.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long May $65 call (FDO1219E65) Entry $2.44

04/24/12 FDO hit some profit taking. Cautious traders may want to exit early now.
04/21/12 new stop loss @ 64.75, adjust exit target to $69.25
Readers may want to go ahead and take profits now (option @ $3.90, +59%)
04/18/12 new stop loss @ 63.75
04/18/12 triggered at $65.35

Entry on April 18 at $65.35
Earnings Date 06/27/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on April 16, 2012


PriceSmart Inc. - PSMT - close: 79.40 change: +0.58

Stop Loss: 76.99
Target(s): 84.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -42.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/26 update: PSMT posted a gain that was just a hair better than the NASDAQ composite's +0.7% advance today. Unfortunately the stock continues to struggle with the $80.00 level as overhead resistance. Readers may want to consider new positions on a new rally past $80.25.

Earlier Comments:
The daily chart has an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that is forecasting an $88 target. Our exit target is $84.75. More conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop loss. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PSMT is bullish with a $95 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long May $80 call (PSMT1219E80) Entry $3.30

04/24/12 PSMT is underperforming with a -4.3% reversal lower.
04/23/12 triggered at $80.75

Entry on April 23 at $80.75
Earnings Date 07/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 313 thousand
Listed on April 21, 2012


PUT Play Updates

Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 55.63 change: +0.58

Stop Loss: 56.15
Target(s): 51.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/26 update: COL produced a bounce today but failed to exceed yesterday's high and remains under short-term resistance near $56.00. I don't see any changes from yesterday's comments.

I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $54.75. There is potential support at $53.00 but we're aiming for $51.50.

Trigger @ 54.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the May $55 PUT (COL1219Q55)

- or -

buy the Jun $55 PUT (COL1216R55)

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/19/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Listed on April 25, 2012


iShares Russell 2000 index - IWM - close: 81.74 change: +0.80

Stop Loss: 82.25
Target(s): 75.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -50.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/26 update: Our IWM put play is not working out. The index has rallied three days in a row. Today saw the IWM close over its 50-dma. I am suggesting we exit positions immediately tomorrow morning.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $77 PUT (IWM1216R77) Entry $2.50

04/26/12 prepare to exit tomorrow at the open
04/23/12 triggered at $78.65
04/21/12 adjust trigger to $78.65

Entry on April 23 at $78.65
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 53 million
Listed on April 19, 2012


Jos. A Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 47.62 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 50.25
Target(s): 45.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: May50p: - 8.3% or May$45p: -30.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/26 update: JOSB is trying to bounce but it's still struggling with resistance near $48.00. More conservative traders may want to start inching down their stop loss.

Earlier Comments:
We want to limit our position size because JOSB has an elevated amount of short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 18.7% of the very small 27.5 million share float and this raises the risk for a short squeeze. Our short-term target is $45.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $42-41 area instead.

(small positions)

Long May $50 PUT (JOSB1219Q50) Entry $3.00

- or -

Long May $45 PUT (JOSB1219Q45) Entry $0.65

Entry on April 23 at $47.50
Earnings Date 05/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 596 thousand
Listed on April 21, 2012


Joy Global, Inc. - JOY - close: 72.23 change: +1.47

Stop Loss: 72.25
Target(s): 65.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/26 update: Gold prices were bouncing higher but copper prices really surged with strong move higher today. That helped shares of JOY bounce. The larger trend for JOY is still bearish but today is a bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern.

I am suggesting we launch small bearish positions if shares hit $69.75. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $72.25 but I have to warn you that JOY can be a volatile stock. Adding to the volatility has been the occasional rumor that JOY might be a takeover target.

If triggered at $69.75 we will target a drop to $65.25. More aggressive traders could aim for the $62-60 zone.

Trigger @ 69.75 (small positions)

- Suggested Positions -

buy the May $70 PUT (JOY1219Q70)

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on April 25, 2012


SINA Corp. - SINA - close: 59.02 change: +2.03

Stop Loss: 61.15
Target(s): 51.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -18.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/26 update: Another bounce for the market helped SINA rally +3.5% with an oversold bounce to its 10-dma. This should be short-term technical resistance and the $60.00 level should also offer some resistance. I am lowering our stop loss down to $61.15.

Earlier Comments:
SINA can be a volatile stock so we want to keep our position size small. Our exit target is $51.00 but we should expect some support in the $57.00-56.50 zone.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long May $55 PUT (SINA1219Q55) Entry $2.50

04/26/12 new stop loss @ 61.15
04/25/12 new stop loss @ 61.65
04/18/12 triggered at $59.40

Entry on April 18 at $59.40
Earnings Date 05/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on April 17, 2012


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Sturm, Ruger & Co. - RGR - close: 54.63 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 49.90
Target(s): 54.85
Current Option Gain/Loss: +27.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to May 1st earnings announcement
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/26 update: Target achieved. RGR spiked to $56.28 this morning. Our exit target was hit at $54.85, shortly after the opening bell.

- Suggested Positions -

May $55 call (RGR1219E55) current ask $1.85 exit $2.35 (+27.0%)

04/26/12 target hit at $54.85
04/25/12 new stop loss @ 49.90
04/19/12 triggered at $52.25

chart:

Entry on April 19 at $52.25
Earnings Date 05/01/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 493 thousand
Listed on April 18, 2012


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Royal Gold, Inc. - RGLD - close: 61.37 change: +0.45

Stop Loss: 61.70
Target(s): 55.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: May60p: -55.1% May57.5p: -61.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on May 3rd.
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/26 update: A rebound in gold prices helped shares of RGLD rally intraday and the stock hit $61.90 at its highs. Our stop loss was hit at $61.70. The larger trend for RGLD is still down but you may want to wait until after the earnings report on May 3rd before considering positions.

Earlier Comments:
Please note I do have a couple of concerns. We don't have a lot of time. RGLD is due to report earnings on May 3rd and we don't want to hold over the report. Secondly the GLD gold ETF has dipped to possible technical support at its 300-dma. The metal could bounce right here. More cautious traders may want to wait for the GLD to close under this technical support before considering bearish positions on RGLD. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

May $60 PUT (RGLD1219Q60) Entry $2.45 exit $1.10 (-00.0%)

- or -

May $57.50 PUT (RGLD1219Q57.5) Entry $1.45 exit $0.50 (-00.0%)

04/26/12 stopped out at $61.70

chart:

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 584 thousand
Listed on April 23, 2012


Tiffany & Co - TIF - close: 68.74 change: +0.33

Stop Loss: 67.65
Target(s): 60.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the late May earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
04/26 update: Shares of TIF and the market are not cooperating. TIF continues to inch higher with an intraday bounce off its 50-dma. There is still potential resistance at the 200-dma but it's unlikely that TIF will hit our trigger to buy puts at $65.40 any time soon. I am removing TIF from the newsletter. Our trade did not open.

Trigger @ 65.40

Our trade did not open.

04/26/12 removed from the newsletter.

chart:

Entry on April xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/24/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on April 24, 2012