Editor's Note:

Shares of COL and HP hit our bearish exit targets today. We also had both INFA and our TIF trades triggered.

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 70.20 change: -0.22

Stop Loss: 68.95
Target(s): 74.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/14 update: AMGN followed the market lower but shares only lost -0.3% versus -1.0% in the NASDAQ. We are still waiting for a rally. The plan is to buy calls if AMGN can trade at $71.25. Our target is $74.90. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Trigger @ $71.25 (small positions)

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $70 call (AMGN1216F70)

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million
Listed on May 08, 2012


Airgas Inc. - ARG - close: 90.96 change: -1.12

Stop Loss: 89.65
Target(s): 97.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: May92.5c: -73.9% & Jun95c: -51.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: ARG gapped down at the open but managed an intraday bounce near $91 and its 20-dma. For now the trend is still higher but if the market starts accelerating lower I would expect ARG to hit our stop loss. More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit from our May options soon! Our multi-week target is $97.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ARG is bullish with a $119 target.

NOTE: We want to keep our position size small. You could argue that ARG is forming a wedge pattern, which could be considered bearish.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long May $92.50 call (ARG1219E92.5) Entry $1.15

- or -

Long Jun $95.00 call (ARG1216F95) Entry $1.45

05/10/12 triggered @ 92.50

Entry on May 10 at $92.50
Earnings Date 05/03/12
Average Daily Volume = 476 thousand
Listed on May 05, 2012


Ashland Inc. - ASH - close: 65.53 chagne: -1.78

Stop Loss: 64.49
Target(s): 74.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/14 update: ASH completely erased Friday's gains with a -2.6% plunge today. The stock remains inside its two-week trading range. If shares close under $65.00 we'll drop it as a bullish candidate.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch positions at $67.75. We'll use a stop $64.49, just under its May low. I am expecting possible round-number resistance at $70.00 but our multi-week target is $74.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ASH is bullish with an $84 target.

Trigger @ 67.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $70 call (ASH1216F70)

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 763 thousand
Listed on May 12, 2012


United Natural Foods - UNFI - close: 51.55 change: +0.48

Stop Loss: 49.40
Target(s): 52.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: +68.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: UNFI continues to show relative strength. Today's rally puts UNFI at a new record high. I am raising our stop loss to $49.40. We only have a few days left on our May calls so we'll be looking for an exit in the next day or two. I am lowering our exit target to $52.75. Cautious traders may want to exit now.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for UNFI is bullish with a long-term $82 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long May $50 call (UNFI1219E50) Entry $0.95

05/14/12 May options expire soon. Readers may want to exit early now. We will be looking for an exit soon.
05/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.40, adjust exit target to $52.75

Entry on May 03 at $49.90
Earnings Date 05/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 250 thousand
Listed on May 02, 2012


PUT Play Updates

Baidu, Inc. - BIDU - close: 121.83 change: -0.40

Stop Loss: 130.25
Target(s): 115.00
Current Option Gain/Loss:(May125P: +128.5%) & Jun120P: +59.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: I am a little disappointed in the lack of progress in BIDU today. Given the market's widespread decline I would have expected a bigger loss in BIDU. Shares did gap down at the open at $121.23 and it was our plan to exit our May puts at the open this morning. These options opened with a bid at $4.80 (+128.5%).

This remains an aggressive, higher-risk trade. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BIDU is bearish with a $106 target.

- Suggested Positions -

May $125 put (BIDU1219Q125) Entry $2.10, exit $4.80 (+128.5%)

- or -

Long Jun $120 put (BIDU1216R120) Entry $2.95

05/14/12 planned exit to sell our May $125 puts at the open this morning.
They opened with a bid at $4.80 (+128.5%)
05/12/12 new stop loss @ 130.25
Prepare to exit May $125 puts at the open on Monday, current bid $4.05
05/08/12 BIDU gapped open lower at $127.01

Entry on May 08 at $127.01
Earnings Date 07/25/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million
Listed on May 07, 2012


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 66.04 change: -0.52

Stop Loss: 70.05
Target(s): 63.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: May$70p: +15.8% & Jun65P: +44.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: FISV dipped toward technical support at its 100-dma before paring its losses. Shares could be building a bear-flag consolidation pattern. I am not suggesting new positions with the stock sitting on its 100-dma. We only have four days left on our May puts. I am suggesting we exit these May $70 puts at the open tomorrow. They currently have a bid at $3.50.

- Suggested Positions -

Long May $70 put (FISV1219Q70) Entry $3.02

- or -

Long Jun $65 put (FISV1216R65) Entry $0.90

05/07/12 triggered on gap down at $67.26 (our trigger was 67.40)

Entry on May 07 at $67.26
Earnings Date 05/01/12
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
Listed on May 05, 2012


Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 52.61 change: -1.28

Stop Loss: 56.35
Target(s): 50.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: FLR underperformed the market with a sharp -2.3% decline. Unfortunately the gap down at the open did not help our entry point. Shares opened at $53.05 this morning. If you're looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a failed rally near the $54.00 level.

It's possible that FLR might see some support at a trend of higher lows near $52 but we are setting our exit target at $50.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $52.50 PUT (FLR1216R52.5) Entry $2.15

Entry on May 14 at $53.05 (gap down)
Earnings Date 05/03/12
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
Listed on May 12, 2012


General Dynamic - GD - close: 66.53 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 68.25
Target(s): 61.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/14 update: GD spiked lower this morning, broke support near $66.00 and its 200-dma, and then bounced back by the closing bell. The intraday low was only $65.80 so our trade is not open yet. GD does look poised for further weakness so we could get triggered soon.

I am suggesting we buy puts if GD trades at $65.75 or lower. More conservative traders may want to wait for a drop under $65.00 instead. Our target is $61.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GD is bearish with a $60 target.

Trigger @ 65.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $65 PUT (GD1216R65)

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/25/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
Listed on May 09, 2012


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 77.77 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 82.25
Target(s): 71.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Jun80p: +26.6% Jun75P: +30.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: HUM followed the market lower and ended the session down -0.7%. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels. Our exit target is $71.50 but do not be surprised if HUM finds some support and bounces in the $76-75 area. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HUM is bearish with a $69 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $80 put (HUM1216R80) Entry $3.00

- or -

Long Jun $75 put (HUM1216R75) Entry $1.15

Entry on May 10 at $79.56
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on May 09, 2012


Informatica - INFA - close: 44.41 change: -0.85

Stop Loss: 46.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: INFA slipped to new relative lows. Our trigger to buy puts was hit at $44.50. I would still consider new positions now at current levels. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for INFA is bearish with a $39 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $45 PUT (INFA1216R45) Entry $2.40

05/14/12 triggered at $44.50

Entry on May 14 at $44.50
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Listed on May 10, 2012


Jos. A Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 45.71 change: -0.93

Stop Loss: 47.25
Target(s): 45.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: May50p: +16.6% or May$45p: -38.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: After days of consolidating sideways shares of JOSB finally broke support near the $46.00 level. Currently our plan is to exit at $45.25 but more aggressive traders could aim lower. Just remember that May options expire in four days. I am adjusting our stop loss down to $47.25.

Earlier Comments:
We want to limit our position size because JOSB has an elevated amount of short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 18.7% of the very small 27.5 million share float and this raises the risk for a short squeeze. Our short-term target is $45.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $42-41 area instead.

(small positions)

Long May $50 PUT (JOSB1219Q50) Entry $3.00

- or -

Long May $45 PUT (JOSB1219Q45) Entry $0.65

05/14/12 new stop loss @ 47.25
05/12/12 new stop loss @ 48.15
05/05/12 new stop loss @ 49.25

Entry on April 23 at $47.50
Earnings Date 05/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 596 thousand
Listed on April 21, 2012


Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 61.59 change: -1.45

Stop Loss: 65.25
Target(s): 59.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 9.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the May 24th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: TIF underperformed the market as we expected it would. Unfortunately shares gapped open lower at $61.67, which negatively impacted our entry price. If you choose to launch new positions now then readers may want to tighten their stop loss. We do not want to hold over the May 24th earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $60 put (TIF1216R60) current ask $2.35

05/14/12 TIF gapped down at $61.67, under our trigger.

Entry on May 14 at $61.67
Earnings Date 05/24/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on May 12, 2012


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Rockwell Collins - COL - close: 51.85 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 54.25
Target(s): 51.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: May $55p: +108.0% & Jun$55p: +64.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: Target exceeded!

We were planning to exit our May puts at the open this morning. Yet COL gapped open lower at $51.35. That is below our target price of $51.50 so both positions were closed this morning.

- Suggested Positions -

May $55 PUT (COL1219Q55) Entry $1.25 exit $2.60 (+108.0%)

- or -

Jun $55 PUT (COL1216R55) Entry $1.85, exit $3.05 (+64.8%)

05/14/12 target exceeded on gap down at $51.35
05/12/12 new stop loss @ 54.25
prepare to exit May $55 puts at open on Monday, current bid $2.80
05/05/12 new stop loss @ 55.25
05/03/12 triggered at $54.75

chart:

Entry on May 03 at $54.75
Earnings Date 07/19/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Listed on April 25, 2012


Helmerich & Payne Inc. - HP - close: 45.03 change: -0.91

Stop Loss: 50.55
Target(s): 45.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: May50p: +72.0% & Jun45p: +66.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/14 update: Target achieved. HP gapped open lower at $45.31 and eventually faded toward the $45.00 mark. Our exit target was hit at $45.25.

- Suggested Positions -

May $50 PUT (HP1219Q50) Entry $2.50, exit $4.30 (+72.0%)

- or -

Jun $45 PUT (HP1216R45) Entry $1.20, exit $2.00 (+66.6%)

05/14/12 target hit at $45.25
05/12/12 readers may want to take profits now, especially if you're holding the May options, which expire soon.
05/10/12 there has been no follow through on the bounce.
05/08/12 warning! HP has produced a big intraday bounce. This might be a short-term bullish reversal.
05/05/12 new stop loss @ 50.55
05/04/12 HP gapped down at $48.57

chart:

Entry on May 04 at $48.57
Earnings Date 07/27/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on May 03, 2012