Editor's Note:

Our GD trade has been triggered.

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 70.68 change: +0.48

Stop Loss: 68.95
Target(s): 74.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/15 update: AMGN displayed some relative strength with shares finding support near $70.00 and bouncing to a +0.6% gain. Further strength from here could signal a buying opportunity. The plan is to buy calls if AMGN can trade at $71.25. Our target is $74.90. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Trigger @ $71.25 (small positions)

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $70 call (AMGN1216F70)

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million
Listed on May 08, 2012


Airgas Inc. - ARG - close: 90.62 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 89.65
Target(s): 97.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: May92.5c: -73.9% & Jun95c: -51.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: We are quickly running out of time on our May calls, which only have three days left. Meanwhile ARG looks poised to test round-number support near $90.00 soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We'll wait and see if shares bounce at $90.00. Our multi-week target is $97.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ARG is bullish with a $119 target.

NOTE: We want to keep our position size small. You could argue that ARG is forming a wedge pattern, which could be considered bearish.

(small positions) - Suggested Positions -

Long May $92.50 call (ARG1219E92.5) Entry $1.15

- or -

Long Jun $95.00 call (ARG1216F95) Entry $1.45

05/10/12 triggered @ 92.50

Entry on May 10 at $92.50
Earnings Date 05/03/12
Average Daily Volume = 476 thousand
Listed on May 05, 2012


Ashland Inc. - ASH - close: 65.64 chagne: +0.11

Stop Loss: 64.49
Target(s): 74.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/15 update: ASH managed to close in positive territory, which is better than most of the market today. Yet the bounce today was not very convincing. There is no change from my prior comments. The stock remains inside its two-week trading range. If shares close under $65.00 we'll drop it as a bullish candidate.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch positions at $67.75. We'll use a stop $64.49, just under its May low. I am expecting possible round-number resistance at $70.00 but our multi-week target is $74.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ASH is bullish with an $84 target.

Trigger @ 67.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $70 call (ASH1216F70)

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 763 thousand
Listed on May 12, 2012


United Natural Foods - UNFI - close: 50.78 change: -0.77

Stop Loss: 49.90
Target(s): 52.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -42.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: The widespread market weakness helped pull UNFI to a -1.5% decline. We only have three days left on our May calls. I am suggesting we go ahead and exit this position at the closing bell tomorrow. We'll raise our stop loss up to $49.90.

- Suggested Positions -

Long May $50 call (UNFI1219E50) Entry $0.95

05/15/12 new stop loss @ 49.90, prepare to exit tomorrow at the closing bell
05/14/12 May options expire soon. Readers may want to exit early now. We will be looking for an exit soon.
05/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.40, adjust exit target to $52.75

Entry on May 03 at $49.90
Earnings Date 05/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 250 thousand
Listed on May 02, 2012


PUT Play Updates

Baidu, Inc. - BIDU - close: 123.87 change: +2.04

Stop Loss: 130.25
Target(s): 115.00
Current Option Gain/Loss:(May125P: +128.5%) & Jun120P: +28.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: Hmm... BIDU was showing relative strength today although I can't find any news to explain why. The stock looks poised to bounce toward short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma soon.

This remains an aggressive, higher-risk trade. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BIDU is bearish with a $106 target.

- Suggested Positions -

-closed position-
May $125 put (BIDU1219Q125) Entry $2.10, exit $4.80 (+128.5%)

- or -

Long Jun $120 put (BIDU1216R120) Entry $2.95

05/14/12 planned exit to sell our May $125 puts at the open this morning.
They opened with a bid at $4.80 (+128.5%)
05/12/12 new stop loss @ 130.25
Prepare to exit May $125 puts at the open on Monday, current bid $4.05
05/08/12 BIDU gapped open lower at $127.01

Entry on May 08 at $127.01
Earnings Date 07/25/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million
Listed on May 07, 2012


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 66.18 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 70.05
Target(s): 63.50
Current Option Gain/Loss:(May$70p: +12.5%) & Jun65P: +44.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: FISV is still bouncing off support near its 100-dma but the rebound didn't get very far today.

Our plan was to exit the May $70 puts at the open this morning. They opened with a bid at $3.40 (+12.5%).

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

- closed position -
May $70 put (FISV1219Q70) Entry $3.02 exit $3.40 (+12.5%)

- or -

Long Jun $65 put (FISV1216R65) Entry $0.90

05/15/12 closed May $70 puts at the open: bid @ 3.40 (+12.5%)
05/14/12 prepare to exit the May $70 puts at the open tomorrow
05/07/12 triggered on gap down at $67.26 (our trigger was 67.40)

Entry on May 07 at $67.26
Earnings Date 05/01/12
Average Daily Volume = 693 thousand
Listed on May 05, 2012


Fluor Corp. - FLR - close: 51.68 change: -0.93

Stop Loss: 55.05
Target(s): 50.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +20.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: FLR posted another loss and is now down three days in a row. Shares gave up -1.7% today. Our exit target is $50.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower. I am moving our stop loss down to $55.05.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $52.50 PUT (FLR1216R52.5) Entry $2.15

05/15/12 new stop loss @ 55.05

Entry on May 14 at $53.05 (gap down)
Earnings Date 05/03/12
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
Listed on May 12, 2012


General Dynamic - GD - close: 66.53 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 68.25
Target(s): 61.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 6.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: GD is slowly sinking lower. Shares closed under technical support at its simple 200-dma today. The stock also hit our trigger to launch bearish positions at $65.75. I would still consider new positions now.

More conservative traders may want to wait for a drop under $65.00 as their entry point instead. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GD is bearish with a $60 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $65 PUT (GD1216R65) Entry $1.50

05/15/12 triggered @ 65.75

Entry on May 15 at $65.75
Earnings Date 07/25/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
Listed on May 09, 2012


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 76.98 change: -0.79

Stop Loss: 82.25
Target(s): 71.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Jun80p: +43.3% Jun75P: +52.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: The slide in HUM continues with a -1.0% decline today. There is no change from my prior comments. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels. Our exit target is $71.50 but do not be surprised if HUM finds some support and bounces in the $76-75 area. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HUM is bearish with a $69 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $80 put (HUM1216R80) Entry $3.00

- or -

Long Jun $75 put (HUM1216R75) Entry $1.15

Entry on May 10 at $79.56
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on May 09, 2012


Informatica - INFA - close: 44.32 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 46.25
Target(s): 40.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: The last three days look similar with INFA bouncing off its morning lows only to see its midday rally fade and shares drop into the closing bell. Today also looks like a failed rally near INFA's 200-dma. I would still consider new positions now at current levels. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for INFA is bearish with a $39 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $45 PUT (INFA1216R45) Entry $2.40

05/14/12 triggered at $44.50

Entry on May 14 at $44.50
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Listed on May 10, 2012


iShares Russell 2000 ETF - IWM - close: 77.71 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 80.05
Target(s): 72.00-70.00 zone
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/15 update: Small caps churned sideways and the IWM didn't see much movement either way. There is no change from my prior comments.

Earlier Comments:
The small cap IWM ETF has created what is arguably a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. A breakdown under $78.00 should signal a drop toward the $72.00. Unfortunately there are several moving averages in the $77-78 area that clouds where potential support could be (200-Ema, 300-dma, 150-dma). Therefore, I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts on the IWM but only if the IWM closes under $77.00. We'll buy puts the next day with a stop loss at $80.05. Our multi-week target is the $72-70 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for IWM is bearish with a $73 target.

Trigger: a close under $77.00, buy puts the next morning.

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jul $74 PUT (IWM1221S74)

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 53 million
Listed on May 12, 2012


Jos. A Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 46.39 change: +0.68

Stop Loss: 47.25
Target(s): 45.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: May50p: -13.3% or May$45p: -76.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: JOSB refuses to cooperate. After breaking down under support yesterday the stock displayed relative strength with a +1.4% bounce back today. Resistance at the simple 10-dma is holding for now. We only have three days left on our May puts. Readers may want to exit early now. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
We want to limit our position size because JOSB has an elevated amount of short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 18.7% of the very small 27.5 million share float and this raises the risk for a short squeeze. Our short-term target is $45.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim for the $42-41 area instead.

(small positions)

Long May $50 PUT (JOSB1219Q50) Entry $3.00

- or -

Long May $45 PUT (JOSB1219Q45) Entry $0.65

05/14/12 new stop loss @ 47.25
05/12/12 new stop loss @ 48.15
05/05/12 new stop loss @ 49.25

Entry on April 23 at $47.50
Earnings Date 05/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 596 thousand
Listed on April 21, 2012


Tiffany & Co. - TIF - close: 61.25 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 65.25
Target(s): 59.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.9%
Time Frame: exit prior to the May 24th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/15 update: TIF sank to new relative lows with a -0.5% decline on Tuesday. At this point I would hesitate to launch new positions. Readers may want to tighten their stop loss. We do not want to hold over the May 24th earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $60 put (TIF1216R60) current ask $2.35

05/14/12 TIF gapped down at $61.67, under our trigger.

Entry on May 14 at $61.67
Earnings Date 05/24/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on May 12, 2012