Editor's Note:

Shares of Dow-component Caterpillar (CAT) hit our bullish target today.

I am suggesting we exit our SBAC trade at the open tomorrow. We've updated a handful of stop losses tonight.

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Amgen Inc. - AMGN - close: 83.11 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 81.45
Target(s): 88.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Sep85c: -37.7% & Oct85c: -19.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: Today looks a lot like yesterday for AMGN. Shares continue to drift sideways between $82 and $84. More conservative traders may want to wait for a close over $84.00 before initiating positions.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Sep $85 call (AMGN1222i85) Entry $1.35

- or -

Long Oct $85 call (AMGN1220j85) Entry $2.15

08/15/12 triggered at $83.75

Entry on August 15 at $83.75
Average Daily Volume = 4.8 million
Listed on August 14, 2012


BRCM - Broadcom - close: 35.39 change: -0.33

Stop Loss: 34.40
Target(s): 38.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 7.2%
Time Frame: 4-6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: BRCM's rally attempt past resistance near $36.00 didn't get very far. The stock hit $36.21 and reversed to a -0.9% decline. The stock should see some short-term support near $35.00 but if the market really starts to correct it won't hold. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

Position: Nov $36.00 Call (BRCM1217K36) entry $1.80

08/18/12 new stop loss @ 34.40
08/08/12 new stop loss @ 33.25
no follow through, turning cautious
08/07/12 triggered @ $34.75
08/06/12 adjust stop loss to $32.45

Entry on August 07 at $34.75
Average Daily Volume = 10 million
Earnings Oct-23rd
Listed on Aug 4, 2012


Concur Technologies - CNQR - close: 72.30 change: +0.30

Stop Loss: 69.75
Target(s): 74.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Sep75c: +12.0% & Nov75c: +5.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: CNQR continues to inch higher. I still expect a correction back toward $70.00, which should be new short-term support. We are raising our stop loss up to $69.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Sep $75 call (CNQR1222i75) Entry $1.25

- or -

Long Nov $75 call (CNQR1217j75) Entry $3.60

08/21/12 new stop loss @ 69.75
08/16/12 new stop loss @ 68.75
08/15/12 triggered at $70.25

Entry on August 15 at $70.25
Average Daily Volume = 577 thousand
Listed on August 13, 2012


Dresser-Rand Group - DRC - close: 51.54 change: +0.58

Stop Loss: 49.45
Target(s): 54.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 4.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to Sept. option expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: Our new DRC trade is off to a decent start. Shares opened at $51.14 and outperformed the market with a +1.1% gain on the day. If you're worried about the broader market then consider waiting for a dip in the $50.50 area as your entry point. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DRC is bullish with a $58 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Sep $50 call (DRC1222i50) Entry $2.50

Entry on August 21 at $51.14
Average Daily Volume = 489 thousand
Listed on August 20, 2012


Intl. Business Machines - IBM - close: 198.65 change: -1.85

Stop Loss: 197.40
Target(s): 209.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -51.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: It looks like our IBM trade could be in trouble. Shares underperformed the major indices with a -0.9% decline. The close under the $200 mark and under its simple 10-dma is short-term bearish. If there is any follow through lower tomorrow then IBM will likely hit our stop loss at $197.40.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Sep $205 call (IBM1222i205) Entry $1.71

Entry on August 17 at $201.08
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on August 16, 2012


Joy Global, Inc. - JOY - close: 57.97 change: +0.82

Stop Loss: 55.25
Target(s): 59.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Sep $57.5c: +12.9% Oct60c: +10.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug. 29th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: JOY almost hit our exit target today. The high was $59.30. Shares did manage to outperform the market with a +1.4% gain. Readers may want to exit early given the market's pullback from its intraday highs and JOY's pullback from its intraday highs. We're not going to give up just yet. Instead we will raise our stop loss to $55.25.

We do not want to hold over the Aug. 29th earnings.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Sep $57.50 call (JOY1222i57.5) Entry $2.70

- or -

Long Oct $60.00 call (JOY1220j60) Entry $2.50

08/21/12 new stop loss @ 55.25

Entry on August 17 at $56.27
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on August 16, 2012


Netflix, Inc. - NFLX - close: 65.60 change: +1.36

Stop Loss: 61.25
Target(s): 69.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +13.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: NFLX continues to make progress. Shares hit new four-week highs today. The stock is testing potential resistance at its July 25th highs (day of the big gap down). I wouldn't be surprised to see NFLX pullback a little bit here. We don't want to see too much of a pullback so we're raising the stop loss to $61.25.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this an aggressive trade. NFLX can be volatile. Nimble traders may want to wait and buy calls on a dip.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -

Long Sep $67.50 call (NFLX1222i67.5) Entry $2.23

08/21/12 new stop loss @ 61.25

Entry on August 16 at $63.46
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
Listed on August 15, 2012


Philip Morris Intl. - PM - close: 91.71 change: -1.46

Stop Loss: 91.40
Target(s): 99.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -27.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: Uh-oh! PM is starting to see some profit taking. Today's decline has broken the three-week trend of higher lows. We have a stop at $91.40. If there is any follow through tomorrow PM could hit our stop.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2013 Jan $95 call (PM1319A95) Entry $2.78

Entry on August 20 at $93.60
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million
Listed on August 18, 2012


PVH Corp. - PVH - close: 87.75 change: +0.60

Stop Loss: 84.75
Target(s): 91.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +10.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Aug 27th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: Good news! There was no follow through on yesterday's reversal in PVH. Yet I still think the stock looks vulnerable here. I would expect a correction to the simple 10-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The $90.00 level could be resistance but we will aim for the 2012 highs near $93.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PVH is bullish with a $97 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Sep $87.50 call (PVH1222i87.5) Entry $3.27

08/18/12 more conservative traders may want to take profits early
08/16/12 new stop loss @ 84.75
08/14/12 triggered on gap open at $85.62 (trigger was 85.25)

Entry on August 14 at $85.62
Average Daily Volume = 845 thousand
Listed on August 13, 2012


Qualcomm - QCOM - close: 62.08 change: -0.72

Stop Loss: 60.95
Target(s): 64.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 9.4%
Time Frame: 4-6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: It looks like QCOM is starting to see some long, overdue profit taking. Shares have broken short-term support at the 10-dma and they're also testing short-term support near $62.00. If this pullback continues QCOM will likely hit our stop at $61.00.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

Position: Oct $62.50 Call (QCOM1222J62.5) entry $1.70

08/18/12 adjust exit target to $64.25
08/16/12 new stop loss @ 60.95
08/07/12 triggered @ 60.51

Entry on August 07 at $60.51
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on Aug 4, 2012


SBA Communications - SBAC - close: 59.74 change: -0.82

Stop Loss: 58.95
Target(s): 64.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: Sep60c: -44.7% & Dec65c: -38.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: We are losing faith in SBAC. The stock has been chopping sideways for a couple of weeks now. Technically today's decline (-1.3%) has also created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern.

I am suggesting an early exit at the open tomorrow morning.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Sep $60 call (SBAC1222i60) Entry $1.90

- or -

Long Dec $65 call (SBAC1222L65) Entry $1.30

08/21/12 prepare to exit at the open tomorrow.
08/16/12 new stop loss @ 58.95
08/14/12 triggered @ 60.75

Entry on August 14 at $60.75
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on August 11, 2012


Under Armour, Inc. - UA - close: 56.59 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 55.70
Target(s): 64.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: UA is still consolidating sideways in the $56-58 range.

I suspect UA could see another short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 24% of the 78 million share float. The August high was $58.48. I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $58.55. We'll use a stop loss at $55.70. Our target is $64.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for UA is bullish with a long-term $85 target.

Trigger @ 58.55

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the Oct $60 call (UA1220J60)

Entry on August xx at $ xx.xx
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on August 18, 2012


WellPoint Inc. - WLP - close: 57.27 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 55.85
Target(s): 59.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -11.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: WLP is not making much progress either. The stock is consolidating sideways inside the $56.50-58.00 zone. It looks like the simple 30-dma has been acting as resistance the last couple of sessions.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Sep $57.50 call (WLP1222I57.5) Entry $1.60

08/16/12 new stop loss @ 55.85
08/08/12 triggered @ 56.50

Entry on August 08 at $56.50
Average Daily Volume = 4.4 million
Listed on August 7, 2012


PUT Play Updates

FB - Facebook - close: 19.15 change: -0.85

Stop Loss: 20.35
Target(s): 17.00
Time Frame: 2-4 weeks
Current Option Gain/Loss: +10.3%
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: Shares of FB had a rough day thanks to news last night that Peter Thiel, one of the company's first investors, was selling most of his stock. Mr. Thiel sold about $400 million worth of FB stock in the $19-20 range. He still has about 5.6 million shares left (current value of $107 million). The market was unhappy with this news since many saw it as a vote of no confidence from a company insider. FB fell -4.2% after failing at the $20 level intraday. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Facebook has turned into the stock everyone loves to hate. Facebook has 674 million shares outstanding as of Friday. On August 15th another 268 million shares will see their lockup expire and become available for trading. That is 40% additional shares. If you were an investor or employee and you watched your shares decline from $35 to $20 ahead of your lockup expiration you are probably just waiting for an opportunity to sell. Another factor is that taxes are due on the awarded shares regardless of whether they are sold. That means employees have a big tax bill and they have not been able to sell those shares to pay the taxes. That is an additional incentive to pull the trigger on at least part of their position on August 15th.

Facebook has hundreds of detractors and they seem to be racing each other trying to put a lower price target on the stock. Mark Hulbert was on CNBC on Friday with a $13.80 price target based on a bunch of different metrics.

Facebook also has the various lawsuits over the IPO including the valuation and the various claims made about users and revenue in the days leading up to the IPO. There are plenty of clouds and no real catalysts to pump up the stock.

Facebook said expenses grew by 60% in Q2 and they would grow faster in Q3/Q4. That means earnings will decline.

I am recommending a September option with plans to exit (some time) after the August 15th share lock up expiration.

Suggested Positions

current position: Sept $20 PUT (FB1220U20) entry $1.45

08/18/12 new stop loss @ 20.35, readers may want to take profits now
08/07/12 triggered @ 20.95
08/06/12 adjust entry trigger to $20.95

Entry on August 07 at $20.95
Average Daily Volume = 80.0 million
Listed on August 5, 2012


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Caterpillar - CAT - close: 90.29 change: -0.15

Stop Loss: 85.90
Target(s): 91.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +63.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
08/21/12 update: Target achieved.

CAT surged higher this morning. The stock opened at $91.00 and rallied to $92.00 before fading back to support near $90 again. Our exit target was hit at $91.50.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -

Sep $90 call (CAT1222I90) Entry $1.90 exit $3.10 (+63.1%)

08/21/12 target hit @ 91.50
08/13/12 new stop loss @ 85.90
08/07/12 triggered @ $87.25

chart:

Entry on August 07 at $87.25
Average Daily Volume = 8.6 million
Listed on August 6, 2012