Editor's Note:

Looks like traders were in a mood to buy the dip after stocks fell last week.

MDVN and MOS were triggered today. SODA was stopped out on a short squeeze.

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Commvault Sys. - CVLT - close: 57.04 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 54.90
Target(s): 62.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -95.9%
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Oct. 30th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: CVLT spent Monday churning sideways without making any progress. We are quickly running out of time. We only have four days left on our October call.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Oct $60 Call (CVLT1220j60) Entry $1.24

10/03/12 adjust exit target to $62.00
10/01/12 new stop loss @ 54.90
09/29/19 new stop loss @ 54.40

Entry on September 20 at $56.07
Average Daily Volume = 427 thousand
Listed on September 19, 2012


EQT Corp. - EQT - close: 59.89 change: -0.43

Stop Loss: 58.75
Target(s): 61.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 9.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: EQT underperformed the market today with a -0.7% decline. Readers may want to exit immediately to avoid or limit any losses. We only have four days left for our October call.

I am raising our stop to $58.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Oct $60 call (EQT1220j60) Entry $0.61

10/15/12 new stop loss @ 58.75, readers may want to exit now
10/13/12 adjust exit down to $61.50
10/11/12 new stop loss @ 58.40, readers may want to take profits now with the bid on our option at $1.30 (+113%)
10/08/12 readers may want to take profits now
10/06/12 new stop loss @ 57.75
10/04/12 new stop loss @ 57.45
09/27/12 new stop loss @ 56.45

Entry on September 24 at $57.89
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Listed on September 22, 2012


Medivation, Inc. - MDVN - close: 52.70 change: -0.96

Stop Loss: 49.95
Target(s): 57.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: Our new trade on MDVN is open. Shares briefly traded under technical support at the rising 50-dma before paring its losses. Our buy-the-dip trigger was hit at $52.50. I would still consider new positions now. We have a stop at $49.95. More conservative traders could place their stop under today's low instead. We will plan to exit prior to the early November earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Nov $55 CALL (MDVN1217K55) Entry $2.00

10/15/12 triggered @ 52.50

Entry on October 15 at $52.50
Average Daily Volume = 780 thousand
Listed on October 12, 2012


Noble Energy, Inc. - NBL - close: 93.77 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 91.75
Target(s): 99.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: Oct95c: -65.5% & Nov95c: -25.8%
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Oct. 25th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: NBL bounced at technical support at its simple 200-dma but failed to post any gains. There is no change from my weekend comments.

We only have four trading days left for our October options so we need to plan an exit for those soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Keep in mind that we do not want to hold over the late October earnings report.

Trigger @ 94.25

- Suggested Positions -

Long Oct $95 call (NBL1220j95) Entry $1.45

- or -

Long Nov $95 call (NBL1217k95) Entry $3.10

Entry on October 08 at $94.25
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Listed on October 2, 2012


Sears Holding Corp. - SHLD - close: 60.32 change: +0.40

Stop Loss: 57.90
Target(s): 62.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 77.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: Monday was a relatively quiet day for SHLD but shares did close up +0.6%. I don't see any changes from my weekend comments. More conservative traders may want to exit early now especially since we only have four trading days left for our October calls.

Earlier Comments:
SHLD could see some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 37% of the 31.3 million share float.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Oct $57.50 call (SHLD1220j57.5) Entry $1.75

10/13/12 adjust exit down to $62.00
10/11/12 new stop loss @ 57.90, readers may want to take profits now. Our option is up +125%.
10/06/12 new stop loss @ 54.75

Entry on September 28 at $56.11
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on September 27, 2012


Six Flags Entertainment - SIX - close: 62.24 change: +0.15

Stop Loss: 60.90
Target(s): 64.95
Current Option Gain/Loss: -33.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Oct. 24th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: SIX churned sideways in a narrow range along the $62.00 level. Don't forget that we plan to exit prior to the October 24th earnings report.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SIX is bullish with a long-term $98 target. NOTE: Readers may want to keep their position size small. The bid/ask spread on options for SIX are a little wide.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Nov $65 call (SIX1217k65) Entry $1.05

Entry on October 12 at $62.25
Average Daily Volume = 334 thousand
Listed on October 10, 2012


PUT Play Updates

CACI Intl. - CACI - close: 49.10 change: +0.45

Stop Loss: 51.25
Target(s): 45.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 4.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: CACI erased Friday's decline with a 45-cent gain. Yet the CACI closed off its best levels of the session. Right now the $50.00 level and the 10-dma near $50.00 should offer some overhead resistance.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CACI is bearish with a $20 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Nov $50 PUT (CACI1211w50) Entry $2.30

10/11/12 new stop loss @ 51.25

Entry on October 09 at $49.64
Average Daily Volume = 373 thousand
Listed on October 8, 2012


Deckers Outdoor - DECK - close: 35.30 change: -1.14

Stop Loss: 36.55
Target(s): 30.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the late October earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/15/12: It looks like DECK's oversold bounce has run out of steam. Shares underperformed the market with a -3.1% decline today. The stock is once again at risk for breaking support and hitting new multi-year lows.

Earlier Comments:
I want to caution readers that there are already a lot of bearish traders in DECK. The most recent data listed short interest at 33% of the small 30 million share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze. Therefore we want to limit our position size to reduce our risk.

I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $34.45. Our target is $30.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DECK is bearish with a long-term $20 target.

Trigger @ 34.45

- Suggested Positions -

buy the NOV $35 PUT (DECK1211w35)

Entry on October xx at $ xx.xx
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on October 9, 2012


ITT Educational Services - ESI - close: 29.70 change: -0.80

Stop Loss: 32.05
Target(s): 25.15
Current Option Gain/Loss: +38.7%
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Oct. 25th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: Good news! The reversal in ESI continues and shares have closed under round-number support at $30.00. This move can be used as a new bearish entry point. Just remember our plan to exit prior to earnings on Oct. 25th.

NOTE: I want to reiterate my previous comments about small positions. The decline in ESI today is bearish but the option has risen a lot faster than expected with a jump from $2.75 to $5.65 (ask) almost overnight.

Earlier Comments:
I want to reiterate my caution about using small positions. ESI already has a high amount of short interest because so many investors think this stock is going lower.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -

Long 2013 Jan $27.50 PUT (ESI1319m27.5) Entry $3.10

Entry on October 04 at $29.47
Average Daily Volume = 408 thousand
Listed on October 3, 2012


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 16.79 change: +0.44

Stop Loss: 17.05
Target(s): 14.10
Current Option Gain/Loss: -13.8%
Time Frame: Exit prior the October 23rd earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: I cautioned readers this past weekend that JNPR wasn't acting right and that we should be defensive. This morning positive analyst comments on JNPR helped launch the stock higher. Shares outperformed the market with a +2.6% gain. The close over its simple 10-dma today is short-term bullish. More conservative traders will want to exit immediately. I see potential resistance at $17.00.

I am not suggesting new positions. We need to exit prior to the October 23rd earnings report.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to reduce our risk. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for JNPR is bearish with a $13.50 target.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -

buy the Nov $16 PUT (JNPR1211W16) Entry $0.72

10/13/12 new stop loss @ 17.05
10/11/12 new stop loss @ 17.25

Entry on October 04 at $16.74
Average Daily Volume = 6.6 million
Listed on October 3, 2012


Lorillard, Inc - LO - close: 115.45 change: +1.71

Stop Loss: 115.75
Target(s): 110.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: -23.1%
Time Frame: exit ahead of the Oct. 24th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: Uh-oh! Our LO trade is in trouble. Friday's move looked like a failed rally at resistance and LO looked poised to decline. Yet suddenly shares have reversed higher with a +1.5% gain. Now I regret moving our stop loss down to $115.75. If there is any follow through tomorrow then LO will most likely hit our stop and close our trade. More aggressive traders will want to adjust their stop loss higher so it's above $116 and above the 10-dma.

I am not suggesting new positions. We want to exit prior to the October 24th earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long NOV $110 PUT (LO1217w110) Entry $2.33

10/13/12 new stop loss @ 115.75
10/11/12 triggered @ 114.50

Entry on October 11 at $114.50
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on October 10, 2012


Mosaic Co. - MOS - close: 53.92 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 55.55
Target(s): 50.15
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 3.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: Our new trade on MOS has been triggered. Shares broke down under support at $54.00 and hit our entry point to buy puts at $53.90. I would still consider new positions now at current levels. Our initial target is $50.00 but more aggressive traders could aim lower.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Nov $52.50 PUT (MOS1217w52.5) Entry $1.25

10/15/12 trade opened

Entry on October 15 at $53.90
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million
Listed on October 12, 2012


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 47.67 change: +0.49

Stop Loss: 50.05
Target(s): 44.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +15.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early November earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: SBUX rebounded to a +1% gain but remains under resistance at $48 and its 300-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our target is $44.00. More aggressive traders could aim lower since SBUX appears to be in a new trend of lower highs and lower lows.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Nov $50 PUT (SBUX1211w50) Entry $2.73

Entry on October 08 at $48.40
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on October 6, 2012


Tech Data Corp. - TECD - close: 42.85 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 44.25
Target(s): 42.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +15.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: TECD continue to churn sideways under the $43 level. I don't see any changes from my prior comments but we will lower our stop loss to $44.25. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our exit target is $42.00. More aggressive traders could aim lower. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I would keep our position size small to limit our risk.

*Small Positions* - Suggested Positions -

Long Nov $45 PUT (TECD1211w45) Entry $1.95

10/15/12 new stop loss @ 44.25
10/10/12 new stop loss at $44.65
10/09/12 new stop loss @ 45.15
10/03/12 new stop loss @ 45.75
10/01/12 triggered @ 44.90

Entry on October 01 at $44.90
Average Daily Volume = 333 thousand
Listed on September 29, 2012


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

SodaStream - SODA - close: 35.89 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 37.25
Target(s): 31.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -23.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/15/12: We knew SODA was a higher-risk trade, which is why we wanted to keep our position size small. Unfortunately I couldn't find any news or catalyst to explain the short squeeze in the stock today. SODA soared past potential resistance near $37 and its 200-dma. Our stop was hit at $37.25.

Earlier Comments:
We will want to keep our position size small. The most recent data listed short interest at 55% of the very small 17.7 million-share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze should SODA manage a rebound.

*Small Positions* - Suggested Positions -

Nov $35 PUT (SODA1217w35) Entry $2.55 exit $1.95 (-23.5%)

10/15/12 stopped out at $37.25

chart:

Entry on October 12 at $35.65
Average Daily Volume = 528 thousand
Listed on October 11, 2012