Editor's Note:

Shares of Mosaic Co. (MOS) gapped down on bearish news and exceeded our target.

Elsewhere we have removed AMT and NUS as bullish candidate. AVB And LVS were triggered. Plus, I have adjusted several stop losses tonight.

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates


Currently we do not have any active call trades.



PUT Play Updates

Avalonbay Communities - AVB - close: 127.61 change: -2.71

Stop Loss: 132.05
Target(s): 121.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 18.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: The sell-off in AVB continues and shares broke down through support at $130 as expected. Our trigger to buy puts was hit at $129.75. If you missed the entry point then consider waiting for a bounce back toward $130, which should be new resistance.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $125 PUT (AVB1222x125) entry $1.65

11/14/12 triggered @ 129.75

Entry on November 14 at $129.75
Average Daily Volume = 593 thousand
Listed on November 13, 2012


Carpenter Tech. - CRS - close: 46.19 change: -1.43

Stop Loss: 49.05
Target(s): 42.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +30.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: After hovering just under its 10-dma the last couple of days shares of CRS finally accelerated lower. The stock underperformed the market with a -3.0% decline. Please note our new stop loss @ 49.05.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $42.50. CRS can be somewhat volatile so readers may want to limit their position size to reduce risk.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Dec $45 PUT (CRS1222x45) Entry $1.15

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.05

Entry on November 12 at $48.23
Average Daily Volume = 460 thousand
Listed on November 10, 2012


Dow Jones Industrial Average (ETF) - DIA - close: 125.76 change: -1.77

Stop Loss: 129.15
Target(s): 125.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +49.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: The U.S. market continues its post-election decline. The DIA has fallen to new three-month lows. I am lowering our stop loss down to $129.15.

- Suggested Positions -

long DEC $125 PUT (DIA1222x125) entry $1.79

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 129.15
11/13/12 new stop loss @ 130.15
11/08/12 new stop loss @ 130.60

Entry on November 08 at $129.18
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million
Listed on November 7, 2012


iShares Russell 2000 ETF - IWM - close: 77.24 change: -1.46

Stop Loss: 80.15
Target(s): 75.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +35.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: The IWM has fallen below what could have been short-term support at $78.00 and its 300-dma. Today's drop (-1.8%) is very bearish but the small cap ETF (and index) is growing more and more oversold. We should expect a bounce soon. I am lowering our stop loss down to $80.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2013 Jan $75 PUT (IWM1319m75) entry $1.53

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 80.15
11/13/12 new stop loss @ 81.05

Entry on November 08 at $79.85
Average Daily Volume = 36 million
Listed on November 7, 2012


Lufkin Industries - LUFK - close: 50.23 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 51.55
Target(s): 45.15
Current Option Gain/Loss: -43.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: The stock market produced widespread declines today. The fact that LUFK did not participate should be a warning signal for bears and shorts. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. I am lowering our stop loss down to $51.55.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $45 PUT (LUFK1222x45) entry $1.50

11/14/12 time to turn cautious. LUFK is not participating in the market weakness. new stop loss @ 51.55

Entry on November 09 at $48.95
Average Daily Volume = 467 thousand
Listed on November 8, 2012


Las Vegas Sands - LVS - close: 40.92 change: -1.59

Stop Loss: 44.05
Target(s): 36.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Dec40p: +37.2% & Jan40p: +29.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: The correction in shares of LVS continues. The stock underperformed the market today with a -3.7% decline and a breakdown to new multi-week lows. Our trigger to buy puts was hit at $42.25. Our target is $36.50 but more conservative traders may want to exit in the $38.50-38.00 area.

Trigger @ 42.25

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $40 PUT (LVS1222x40) Entry $1.10

- or -

Long 2013 Jan $40 PUT (LVS1319m40) entry $1.65

11/14/12 triggered @ 42.25

Entry on November 14 at $42.25
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million
Listed on November 13, 2012


Mercadolibre - MELI - close: 72.64 change: -1.27

Stop Loss: 75.55
Target(s): 70.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +20.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: MELI followed the market lower with a -1.7% decline. Shares hit new three-month lows. Broken support near $75.00 should be new resistance. We will adjust our stop loss down to $75.55.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a higher-risk trade. MELI can be volatile and is arguably already oversold with a four-week decline. Of course stocks can always get more oversold.

Trigger @ 74.75

- Suggested *Small* Positions -

Long DEC $72.50 PUT (MELI1222x72.5) entry $2.75

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 75.55
11/13/12 play triggered on gap down at $74.56. suggested trigger was $74.75

Entry on November 13 at $74.56
Average Daily Volume = 603 thousand
Listed on November 12, 2012


Vornado Realty - VNO - close: 73.96 change: -1.58

Stop Loss: 78.05
Target(s): 72.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Dec75p: +64.2% & 2013Jan$75p: +50.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: VNO is plummeting lower with another -2.0% decline today. I want to warn you that the stock is growing more and more oversold. Shares should see an oversold bounce soon. I am not suggesting new positions. We will adjust our stop loss down to $78.05. Readers may want to start taking money off the table now.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $75 PUT (VNO1222x75) entry $1.40*

- or -

Long 2013 Jan $75 PUT (VNO1319m75) entry $1.90*

11/14/12 readers may want to start taking profits now
new stop loss @ 78.05
11/12/12 trade opened on gap down at $76.89
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Entry on November 12 at $76.89
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on November 10, 2012


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

American Tower Corp. - AMT - close: 73.44 change: -0.79

Stop Loss: 73.95
Target(s): 79.85
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: Stocks continue to sink and AMT is moving farther away from its recent highs. It is unlikely that shares will hit our trigger at $76.25 any time soon so we are removing AMT as a trade. More nimble traders may want to keep an eye on it since AMT might bounce off its longer-term bullish trend of higher lows.

Trade did not open.

11/14/12 AMT removed. trade did not open.

chart:

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on November 7, 2012


Nu Skin Enterprises. - NUS - close: 43.97 change: -2.14

Stop Loss: 45.45
Target(s): 54.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/14/12: NUS lowered its earnings guidance today and shares plunged -4.6% on the news. The breakdown under support near $45.00 is bearish. Our trade has not opened yet and we're removing NUS as a candidate.

Trade did not open.

11/14/12 NUS removed. trade did not open.

chart:

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on November 12, 2012


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

The Mosaic Co. - MOS - close: 49.10 change: -1.65

Stop Loss: 52.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +126.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/14/12: Target exceeded. Bearish headlines from MOS suggested the stock was gap open lower today. We moved our exit target down to $49.00. Yet MOS gapped open at $48.33, immediately closing our trade. Shares hit $48.29 and bounced.

- Suggested Positions -

NOV $55 PUT (MOS1217w55) entry $2.60 exit $5.90 (+126.9%)

11/14/12 target exceeded on gap down at $48.33
11/13/12 MOS has lowered guidance, adjust exit target to $49.00 and stop loss to $52.75
11/12/12 adjust target to $50.25
10/27/12 new stop loss @ 54.25
10/23/12 triggered @ 53.45

chart:

Entry on October 23 at $53.45
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million
Listed on October 20, 2012