Editor's Note:

I want to warn you that stocks could see a bounce soon. The market continues to sink but we saw a lot of stocks producing intraday bullish reversals. Equities are short-term oversold so a bounce soon would make sense.

We want to sell at least half of our VNO trade at the open tomorrow to lock in gains.

Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates


Currently we do not have any active call trades.



PUT Play Updates

Avalonbay Communities - AVB - close: 127.69 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 132.05
Target(s): 121.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 15.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: AVB dipped to $126.12 before bouncing back and closing in positive territory. I am concerned that we could see AVB bounce back toward the $130 level soon. Broken support near $130 should be resistance.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $125 PUT (AVB1222x125) entry $1.65

11/14/12 triggered @ 129.75

Entry on November 14 at $129.75
Average Daily Volume = 593 thousand
Listed on November 13, 2012


Carpenter Tech. - CRS - close: 44.81 change: -1.38

Stop Loss: 49.05
Target(s): 42.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +82.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: CRS continues to underperform. The stock lost -2.9% and closed under what could have been round-number support at $45.00. If shares do see a bounce we can look for resistance near $47.50 and $48.50.

More conservative traders may want to just take profits now! (+82%)

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $42.50. CRS can be somewhat volatile so readers may want to limit their position size to reduce risk.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Dec $45 PUT (CRS1222x45) Entry $1.15

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.05

Entry on November 12 at $48.23
Average Daily Volume = 460 thousand
Listed on November 10, 2012


Dow Jones Industrial Average (ETF) - DIA - close: 125.51 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 129.15
Target(s): 125.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +51.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: DIA fell to support near $125.00 (12,500 on the Dow Industrial average). This ETF looks ready to bounce. Look for overhead resistance near $127.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

long DEC $125 PUT (DIA1222x125) entry $1.79

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 129.15
11/13/12 new stop loss @ 130.15
11/08/12 new stop loss @ 130.60

Entry on November 08 at $129.18
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million
Listed on November 7, 2012


iShares Russell 2000 ETF - IWM - close: 76.84 change: -0.40

Stop Loss: 80.15
Target(s): 75.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +47.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: The IWM dipped to $76.29 intraday before paring its losses. This ETF looks short-term oversold and due for a bounce. Watch for resistance near $78.50. More conservative traders may want to take profits now (+47%).

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2013 Jan $75 PUT (IWM1319m75) entry $1.53

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 80.15
11/13/12 new stop loss @ 81.05

Entry on November 08 at $79.85
Average Daily Volume = 36 million
Listed on November 7, 2012


Lockheed Martin Corp. - LMT - close: 87.58 change: -0.53

Stop Loss: 90.65
Target(s): 84.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +12.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: LMT continued to fall as expected. Readers may want to wait for a failed rally near $89.00 before considering new positions since the market looks poised to bounce.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small because LMT has produced a new breakdown on its daily chart but it has not yet broken below potential support on the weekly chart. It is possible the stock could bounce off the trend line displayed on the weekly chart but I doubt it given the market's broader weakness.

- Suggested *Small* Positions -

Long Dec $85 PUT (LMT1222x85) Entry $1.60

Entry on November 15 at $88.02
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on November 14, 2012


Lufkin Industries - LUFK - close: 50.18 change: -0.05

Stop Loss: 51.55
Target(s): 45.15
Current Option Gain/Loss: -46.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: I am concerned about our LUFK trade. The stock is just churning sideways in the $48.50-51.00 zone. While the larger trend is down a rally past $51.00 could spark some short covering. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $45 PUT (LUFK1222x45) entry $1.50

11/14/12 time to turn cautious. LUFK is not participating in the market weakness. new stop loss @ 51.55

Entry on November 09 at $48.95
Average Daily Volume = 467 thousand
Listed on November 8, 2012


Las Vegas Sands - LVS - close: 40.56 change: -0.36

Stop Loss: 44.05
Target(s): 36.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Dec40p: +49.0% & Jan40p: +39.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: Beware the bounce. LVS dipped toward potential support near $40.00 today. The stock could see an oversold bounce here. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Readers may want to consider taking profits right now.

Our target is $36.50 but more conservative traders may want to exit in the $38.50-38.00 area.

Trigger @ 42.25

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $40 PUT (LVS1222x40) Entry $1.10

- or -

Long 2013 Jan $40 PUT (LVS1319m40) entry $1.65

11/14/12 triggered @ 42.25

Entry on November 14 at $42.25
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million
Listed on November 13, 2012


Mercadolibre - MELI - close: 74.45 change: +1.81

Stop Loss: 75.55
Target(s): 70.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: -10.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: Warning! MELI dipped to $71.26 and rebounded. Today's bullish bounce has created a bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. Now these normally need to see confirmation first. I am not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to lower their stops.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a higher-risk trade. MELI can be volatile and is arguably already oversold with a four-week decline. Of course stocks can always get more oversold.

Trigger @ 74.75

- Suggested *Small* Positions -

Long DEC $72.50 PUT (MELI1222x72.5) entry $2.75

11/14/12 new stop loss @ 75.55
11/13/12 play triggered on gap down at $74.56. suggested trigger was $74.75

Entry on November 13 at $74.56
Average Daily Volume = 603 thousand
Listed on November 12, 2012


Vornado Realty - VNO - close: 73.28 change: -0.68

Stop Loss: 76.25
Target(s): 72.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Dec75p: +92.8% & 2013Jan$75p: +68.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: VNO is down seven days in a row. The low today was $73.06. I am concerned that VNO is growing so short-term oversold that it will see a big oversold bounce.

I am suggesting we sell at least half of our positions at the open tomorrow morning! I am moving our stop loss down to $76.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $75 PUT (VNO1222x75) entry $1.40*

- or -

Long 2013 Jan $75 PUT (VNO1319m75) entry $1.90*

11/15/12 SELL HALF of our positions to lock in gains tomorrow morning,
move the stop loss down to $76.25 for the rest
11/14/12 readers may want to start taking profits now
new stop loss @ 78.05
11/12/12 trade opened on gap down at $76.89
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.

Entry on November 12 at $76.89
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on November 10, 2012


Whole Foods Market - WFM - close: 88.62 change: +0.53

Stop Loss: 91.05
Target(s): 82.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 15.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/15/12: Hmm... WFM is not exactly cooperating. Shares opened at $88.02 and spent most of the day consolidating sideways in a narrow range. This is not a good sign if you're bearish. On a short-term basis I would expect a bounce back to $90.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting small positions because it is possible that WFM could bounce on its long-term trend line but given the market's widespread weakness I am expecting new lows.

- Suggested *small* Positions -

Long DEC $87.50 PUT (WFM1222x87.5) entry $2.69

Entry on November 15 at $88.02
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on November 14, 2012