Editor's Note:

The S&P 500 index has risen to a five-year (closing) high and is poised to rally past its 2012 intraday highs.

Our DE and EOG trades have been triggered.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Concur Technologies - CNQR - close: 71.97 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 69.40
Target(s): 74.85
Current Option Gain/Loss: +15.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the late January earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: CNQR has spent the last couple of days consolidating sideways underneath the $72.00 level. The way shares are coiling more tightly the stock looks poised to breakout higher past this level. I am raising our stop loss up to $69.40. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels but nimble traders could buy calls on a bounce off the $70 area.

NOTE: I am adjusting our exit target to $74.85. More aggressive traders could aim for the 2012 highs near $76.00 instead. We do not want to hold over the late January earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CNQR is bullish with an $81 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $70 call (CNQR1316B70) entry $3.30

01/11/13 new stop loss @ 69.40, adjust exit target to $74.85

chart:

Entry on January 07 at $70.25
Average Daily Volume = 462 thousand
Listed on January 05, 2012


Deere & Co - DE - close: 89.62 change: -0.29

Stop Loss: 88.25
Target(s): 99.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -16.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: Our new play on DE has been triggered. Unfortunately Friday's rally suddenly looks like a potential top or bearish reversal at resistance. The plan was to wait for shares to breakout past resistance at $90.00 and buy calls when DE hit $90.25. DE did breakout to new 52-week highs on Friday but reversed at $90.64 and closed back below resistance at $90.00 again. Our trigger was hit so the play is open but I would not launch new positions at this time. Wait for a new rally back above $90.25 again.

On a short-term basis DE looks poised to dip toward $89.00. If it dips much farther we could see it hit our stop loss at $88.25. More aggressive traders may want to adjust their stop loss so that it is below the simple 10-dma.

We do not want to hold over its mid February earnings report (still unconfirmed). FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DE is bullish with a $104 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $90 call (DE1316B90) entry $2.35

chart:

Entry on January 11 at $90.25
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on January 09, 2012


EOG Resources - EOG - close: 125.63 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 123.40
Target(s): 134.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 12.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: EOG also rallied to new highs only to give it all back. Granted EOG didn't actually move that much on Friday but our trigger to buy calls was hit at $126.30. Nimble traders could buy a dip or a bounce off the simple 10-dma near $124.00 but I would prefer to wait for a new high above Friday's intraday high at $126.45 as our next entry point.

FYI: EOG is due to begin trading ex-dividend on January 15th. The quarterly cash dividend is 17 cents.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to hold positions over the earnings report in February.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $130 call (EOG1316B130) entry $2.45

chart:

Entry on January 11 at $126.30
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on January 10, 2012


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 82.98 change: -0.22

Stop Loss: 79.75
Target(s): 88.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 16.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Feb. 5th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: FISV was downgraded on Friday morning, which helps explain the sharp spike lower at the open. Fortunately FISV pared its losses. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Our target is $88.00 but we will plan on exiting positions prior to FISV's next earnings report on February 5th. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FISV is bullish with a $93 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $80 call (FISV1316B80) entry $3.00

01/10/13 do not hold over the earnings report on Feb. 5th

chart:

Entry on January 08 at $81.60
Average Daily Volume = 864 thousand
Listed on January 07, 2012


iShares Russell 2000 (ETF) - IWM - close: 87.34 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 85.90
Target(s): 94.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/12/13: The rally in the small caps stalled a little bit on Friday. The overall trend remains very bullish with the $RUT's breakout to new all-time highs. There is no change from my earlier comments.

Earlier Comments:
Thursday's high was $87.69. I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $87.85. If triggered our multi-week target is $94.50.

Trigger @ 87.85

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Mar $90 call (IWM1316c90) current ask $1.30

chart:

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Average Daily Volume = 41.2 million
Listed on January 10, 2012


Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 94.23 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 91.25
Target(s): 99.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 21.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: Hmm... MHK garnered some bullish analyst comments on Friday but they really didn't help much. Shares spiked to a new 52-week high at the open but gains faded. Nimble traders could buy a bounce off the rising 10-dma. Otherwise I would probably wait for a rally past $95.00 again.

- Suggested Positions - *Small Positions*

buy the Feb $95 call (MHK1316B95) entry $3.30

chart:

Entry on January 10 at $95.00
Average Daily Volume = 787 thousand
Listed on January 09, 2012


OpenTable, Inc. - OPEN - close: 53.53 change: +1.17

Stop Loss: 49.90
Target(s): 58.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 4.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: OPEN started showing some relative strength on Friday with a +2.2% gain. That's nice to see after its pullback earlier in the week. I am raising our stop loss to $49.90. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss closer to the $51.50 level instead (near this week's low). I would be tempted to use Friday's advance as a new bullish entry point.

Earlier Comments:
OPEN could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 42% of the very small 19.4 million share float. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for OPEN is bullish with a $73 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $55 call (OPEN1316B55) entry $2.54

01/12/13 new stop loss @ 49.90

chart:

Entry on January 04 at $52.23
Average Daily Volume = 361 thousand
Listed on January 03, 2012


Sherwin-Williams Company - SHW - close: 161.28 change: -1.08

Stop Loss: 154.65
Target(s): 169.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 9.6%
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Jan. 31st!
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: After a multi-day rally shares of SHW saw some profit taking on Friday. The gap down on Friday morning was probably due to an analyst downgrade before the bell. Overall the dip wasn't that bad. I would still consider new positions now or you could wait for a new rise above $162.00 as an entry point.

Earlier Comments:
We keep our position size small to limit our risk. Plus, this is a shorter-term trade. We do not want to hold over the January 31st earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SHW is bullish with a $196 target.

- Suggested Positions - *Small Positions*

Long Feb $165 call (SHW1316B165) entry $3.10

chart:

Entry on January 09 at $161.28
Average Daily Volume = 928 thousand
Listed on January 08, 2012


iShares Silver ETF - SLV - close: 29.48 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 27.45
Target(s): 33.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: Outside of the early January volatility the SLV has been churning sideways for about three weeks. We still expect silver and gold to rally but readers may want to wait for a close above $30.00 on the SLV before initiating new bullish positions.

Food for thought: If the U.S. does the unthinkable and mints a $1 trillion dollar platinum coin to get around the debt-ceiling issue what will that do for the U.S. dollar and how will that impact commodity prices? (hint, I think it's bullish for gold and silver)

Earlier Comments:
More cautious traders might want to raise their stop loss.

- Suggested Positions -

Long March $30 call (SLV1316c30) entry $0.95

chart:

Entry on December 31 at $29.07
Average Daily Volume = 11.6 million
Listed on December 29, 2012


Sohu.com - SOHU - close: 48.22 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 45.75
Target(s): 49.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: +36.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: Traders have continued to buy the dips near SOHU's rising 10-dma. Now shares look poised to re-challenge resistance at the $50.00 level. Our exit target is $49.25 but more aggressive traders could aim higher.

Earlier Comments:
SOHU can be a volatile stock so we want to limit our position size to reduce our risk. If triggered our target is $49.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since SOHU seems to have built a decent bottom over the last several months. With enough time you could aim for the $55-60 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SOHU is bullish with a $66 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $47.50 call (SOHU1316b47.5) entry $2.05

01/05/13 new stop loss @ 45.75
01/02/13 adjust exit down to $49.25
SOHU almost hit our target at $49.75 but the high today was only $49.70. We don't want that to happen again.
12/29/12 new stop loss @ 43.45

chart:

Entry on December 27 at $45.20
Average Daily Volume = 606 thousand
Listed on December 26, 2012


Trimble Navigation - TRMB - close: 62.08 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 59.75
Target(s): 64.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -12.5%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/12/13: Friday's move in TRMB really didn't help us any. The stock churned sideways in a narrow range, hugging the $62 level. Thursday's session still looks like a bearish reversal candlestick pattern. While Friday's session did not confirm the reversal it really didn't negate it either.

TRMB's larger trend is still up and if the stock does see some profit taking the $60.00 level should offer some short-term support. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Part of our problem now is the lack of time left on our January options, which expire after five more trading days. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship now.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions - (Keep positions small)

Long Jan $60 call (TRMB1319a60) entry $2.25

01/10/13 we only have six trading days left for our January options. More conservative traders may want to exit early now

chart:

Entry on January 03 at $61.32
Average Daily Volume = 750 thousand
Listed on January 02, 2012


PUT Play Updates

Green Mtn Coffee Roasters - GMCR - close: 41.23 change: +1.60

Stop Loss: 41.20
Target(s): 35.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/12/13: GMCR garnered some bullish analyst comments on Friday and that sparked some short covering. The stock surged +4% and is now back above what should have been resistance near $40.00 and its 10 and 20-dma(s). If this bounce continues then we will likely drop GMCR as a bearish candidate. At moment we are waiting for a breakdown under support.

Earlier Comments:
Thursday's low was $38.83. I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $38.45. If triggered our target is $35.25. More aggressive traders might want to aim for a drop near $31.00 instead.

NOTE: GMCR can be a volatile stock. We want to keep our position size small.

Trigger @ 38.45 *Small Positions*

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Feb $35 PUT (GMCR1316n35)

chart:

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million
Listed on January 10, 2012