Editor's Note:

Investors have decided to pour more money into stock funds this year and the U.S. market is melting higher.

Our WYNN trade is triggered. RHT has been stopped out.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

CH Robinson Worldwide - CHRW - close: 65.51 change: +0.63

Stop Loss: 63.75
Target(s): 69.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 2.3%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: The rally in the transports continues. CHRW added +0.9% on Friday after traders bought the dip at its 10-dma on Thursday. This is a new multi-month closing high for the stock. I do want to urge a little caution. The Dow Jones Transportation average looks overbought here. That doesn't mean it can't grow more overbought but eventually the sector will see some profit taking. Readers may want to limit their position size in CHRW.

CHRW did provide a rally above $65 so readers can use Friday's move as a new entry point.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to hold over CHRW's earnings report, which is expected in very late January or early February so this is a short-term two or three week trade.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $65 call (CHRW1316B65) entry $2.10

chart:

Entry on January 15 at $65.20
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Listed on January 14, 2012


Concur Technologies - CNQR - close: 71.91 change: +0.40

Stop Loss: 69.40
Target(s): 74.85
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 9.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Jan. 30th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: Hmm... CNQR underperformed the S&P 500 on Friday. Shares actually closed below what should have been short-term technical support at the 10-dma. We only have until the end of the month. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Plan to exit prior to the January 30th earnings report.

Earlier Comments:
More aggressive traders could aim for the 2012 highs near $76.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CNQR is bullish with an $81 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $70 call (CNQR1316B70) entry $3.30

01/11/13 new stop loss @ 69.40, adjust exit target to $74.85

chart:

Entry on January 07 at $70.25
Average Daily Volume = 462 thousand
Listed on January 05, 2012


Deere & Co - DE - close: 90.96 change: +0.86

Stop Loss: 88.25
Target(s): 99.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 1.7%
Time Frame: Exit prior to the Feb. 13th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: DE displayed some relative strength on Friday with a +0.9% gain. This is a new 18-month closing high for the stock. The stock looks poised to run into the $95-100 range.

We do not want to hold over DE's February 13th earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DE is bullish with a $104 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $90 call (DE1316B90) entry $2.35

chart:

Entry on January 11 at $90.25
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on January 09, 2012


EOG Resources - EOG - close: 126.79 change: +0.76

Stop Loss: 123.40
Target(s): 134.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 10.6%
Time Frame: Exit prior to the Feb. 13th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: Traders bought the intraday dip on Friday and EOG rallied to a new multi-year high. Please note that we want to exit prior to the earnings report on February 13th.

This breakout to a new relative high can be used as a new bullish entry point.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $130 call (EOG1316B130) entry $2.45

chart:

Entry on January 11 at $126.30
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on January 10, 2012


Starwood Hotels - HOT - close: 60.02 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 58.85
Target(s): 64.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Feb. 7th
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/19/13: It looks like the gap open and spike higher was a bad tick. According to my quote feed the intraday high was only $60.49. That means our HOT trade is still not open yet. HOT does look poised to breakout from its three-week consolidation.

We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $60.60. If triggered our stop loss is $58.85. Our target is $64.50. However, we will plan to exit prior to the earnings report on Feb. 7th.

Trigger @ 60.60

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Feb $60 call (HOT1316B60)

chart:

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
Listed on January 15, 2012


Ingersoll-Rand - IR - close: 50.95 change: +1.48

Stop Loss: 48.25
Target(s): 54.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -11.4%
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 1st!
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/19/13: IR tagged a new 52-week high on Friday morning. Unfortunately the rally ran out of steam and shares faded to a -0.6% decline. The breakout above $50.00 this past week is bullish. I would still consider positions at current levels.

Our target is $54.00 but we will plan on exiting prior to the earnings in early February.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $50 call (IR1316B50) entry $1.75

chart:

Entry on January 17 at $50.25
Average Daily Volume = 1.8 million
Listed on January 12, 2012


iShares Russell 2000 (ETF) - IWM - close: 88.57 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 85.90
Target(s): 94.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: The IWM has extended its gains to three weeks in a row. This is a new all-time high. You could certainly argue that the small cap index and ETF look overbought but it can always grow more overbought! I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Our multi-week target is $94.50.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Mar $90 call (IWM1316c90) entry $1.36

chart:

Entry on January 15 at $87.85
Average Daily Volume = 41.2 million
Listed on January 10, 2012


Mohawk Industries - MHK - close: 96.30 change: -0.58

Stop Loss: 92.45
Target(s): 99.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 9.0%
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 21st
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: MHK didn't see much follow through on Thursday's bullish breakout past $95.00. Shares briefly tagged a new high on Friday morning and then hit some profit taking. Nimble traders could buy a dip near $95.00 or the 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss.

- Suggested Positions - *Small Positions*

buy the Feb $95 call (MHK1316B95) entry $3.30

01/17/13 new stop loss @ 92.45

chart:

Entry on January 10 at $95.00
Average Daily Volume = 787 thousand
Listed on January 09, 2012


Noble Energy - NBL - close: 106.62 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 102.75
Target(s): 114.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -13.0%
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 7th!
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: NBL rallied to new all-time, record highs this past week. Yet shares hit some profit taking on Friday. Fortunately traders bought the dip at its rising 10-dma. On Thursday we raised our stop loss to $102.75. More conservative traders may want to inch their stops higher.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $110 call (NBL1316B110) entry $1.15

01/17/13 new stop loss @ 102.75

chart:

Entry on January 14 at $105.31
Average Daily Volume = 820 thousand
Listed on January 12, 2012


OpenTable, Inc. - OPEN - close: 54.15 change: +1.92

Stop Loss: 51.40
Target(s): 58.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 7.4%
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Feb. 7th!
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: OPEN spent the last couple of weeks churning sideways in the $51.50-54.00 zone. Friday's big +3.6% rally looks like a bullish breakout from this sideways consolidation. We are raising our stop loss to $51.40.

Earlier Comments:
OPEN could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 42% of the very small 19.4 million share float. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for OPEN is bullish with a $73 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $55 call (OPEN1316B55) entry $2.54

01/19/13 new stop loss @ 51.40
01/16/13 new stop loss @ 50.90
01/12/13 new stop loss @ 49.90

chart:

Entry on January 04 at $52.23
Average Daily Volume = 361 thousand
Listed on January 03, 2012


Sherwin-Williams Company - SHW - close: 164.02 change: +1.18

Stop Loss: 159.65
Target(s): 169.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 9.6%
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings on Jan. 31st!
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: SHW continues to show strength and hit new record highs with Friday's +0.7% gain. We have less than two weeks to go. I am raising our stop loss to $159.65.

Earlier Comments:
We keep our position size small to limit our risk. Plus, this is a shorter-term trade. We do not want to hold over the January 31st earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SHW is bullish with a $196 target.

- Suggested Positions - *Small Positions*

Long Feb $165 call (SHW1316B165) entry $3.10

01/19/13 new stop loss @ 159.65

chart:

Entry on January 09 at $161.28
Average Daily Volume = 928 thousand
Listed on January 08, 2012


iShares Silver ETF - SLV - close: 30.81 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 27.45
Target(s): 33.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +67.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: The U.S. dollar managed a bounce on Friday but that didn't stop the SLV from posting another gain. You may have heard the talking heads on TV mention the growing threat of a "currency war". Japan just announced plans to devalue (weaken) their currency to make their exports more affordable. The U.S. and EU's QE programs have a similar effect. Russia just warned on Friday that the world is on the brink of a currency war as other countries might follow suit to weaken their currencies to stay competitive.

The good news is that weak currencies usually mean strong precious metals. Sadly that probably won't offset the impact of a weak currency in the rest of our daily lives.

Earlier Comments:
More cautious traders might want to raise their stop loss.

- Suggested Positions -

Long March $30 call (SLV1316c30) entry $0.95

chart:

Entry on December 31 at $29.07
Average Daily Volume = 11.6 million
Listed on December 29, 2012


Weight Watchers Intl. - WTW - close: 59.92 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 58.75
Target(s): 64.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings in mid February
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/19/13: The S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials and the Russell 2000 index are all breaking out to new highs. What are investors waiting for in WTW? Shares of WTW have been hovering below resistance near $60.00 and its 300-dma for days now. I would expect WTW to join the market's advance soon.

Earlier Comments:
The January 16th high was $60.30. I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $60.50. If triggered our target is $64.50. However, we will plan to exit prior to the mid February earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WTW is bullish with a $78 target.

Trigger @ 60.40

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Feb $62.50 call (WTW1316B62.5) current ask $2.25

chart:

Entry on January -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 732 thousand
Listed on January 17, 2012


Wynn Resorts Ltd. - WYNN - close: 124.06 change: +0.60

Stop Loss: 121.90
Target(s): 129.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -17.6%
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings (likely late Jan or early Feb)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: Our brand new play on WYNN has been opened. Unfortunately, shares did not hit our trigger point to buy calls at $124.25 as expected. The stock gapped open higher at $125.15, which immediately opened our trade. WYNN's pop higher on Friday morning was a reaction to an analyst upgrade. WYNN hit $126.11 and then pared its gains. At this point, I would wait for a new rally past $124.50 before initiating new positions.

We do not want to hold over the very late January earnings (an unconfirmed date).

- Suggested Positions -

Long Feb $125 call (WYNN1316B125) entry $3.45

01/18/13 trade opened on gap higher at $125.15, trigger was 124.25

chart:

Entry on January 18 at $125.15
Average Daily Volume = 1.24 million
Listed on January 17, 2012


PUT Play Updates

Cliffs Natural Res. - CLF - close: 37.25 change: +0.56

Stop Loss: 36.55
Target(s): 30.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings on Feb. 13th
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/19/13: Hmm... CLF is up two days in a row and has closed back above its 10-dma and its 100-dma. These moving averages should have been short-term technical resistance. Yet with the market moving higher it might be tough to find bearish candidates. Overall CLF still looks bearish. Nimble traders could use another failed rally near $40.00 as a bearish entry point. Currently I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts if CLF hits $34.90. If triggered our target is $30.50 since the $30.00 level could be support. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.

Trigger @ 34.90

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Feb $35 PUT (CLF1316n35)

chart:

Entry on January -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million
Listed on January 15, 2012


Green Mtn Coffee Roasters - GMCR - close: 40.60 change: -0.28

Stop Loss: 41.20
Target(s): 35.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/19/13: GMCR did not participate with the market's generally widespread rally on Friday. That's a good sign for the bears but we don't want to buy puts yet. If GMCR doesn't roll over soon we'll probably drop it.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $38.45. If triggered our target is $35.25. More aggressive traders might want to aim for a drop near $31.00 instead.

NOTE: GMCR can be a volatile stock. We want to keep our position size small.

Trigger @ 38.45 *Small Positions*

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Feb $35 PUT (GMCR1316n35)

chart:

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Average Daily Volume = 4.2 million
Listed on January 10, 2012


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Red Hat, Inc. - RHT - close: 54.15 change: -0.71

Stop Loss: 53.90
Target(s): 59.25
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 48.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/19/13: RHT did not want to cooperate with us. Our trade was triggered with Thursday's intraday spike that turned into a failed rally pattern. Friday saw some follow through lower and RHT hit our stop loss at $53.90.

- Suggested Positions -

Feb $55 call (RHT1316B55) entry $1.85 exit $0.95 (-48.6%)

01/18/13 stopped out at $53.90

chart:

Entry on January 17 at $55.40
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on January 15, 2012