Editor's Note:

The October jobs report came in 17,000 less than expected but the headline failed to spark any significant selling in the U.S. market.

NTES was closed on Friday morning.

We have updated several stop losses tonight.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Acuity Brands, Inc. - AYI - close: 140.39 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 135.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +18.4%
Average Daily Volume = 485 thousand
Entry on October 28 at $136.25
Listed on October 27, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: AYI experienced a little bit of profit taking on Friday following Thursday's bullish breakout past resistance at $140.00. Traders were buying the dips near $140 in Friday's session, which is a good sign.

More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss again.

Earlier Comments: October 27, 2014:
AYI is part of the technology sector. The company considers itself the North American market leader and one of the world's biggest providers of lighting solutions. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, AYI does business in North America, Europe, and Asia. Their fiscal 2014 sales hit $2.4 billion.

It has been a rocky year for AYI's stock price but the August low definitely looks like a bottom. Shares have rebounded sharply and investors have been buying the dips. As of today's close AYI is up +23% in 2014.

The last few weeks have been volatile. The early October rally was a reaction to AYI's earnings results. The company reported on October 1st with a profit of $1.26 per share on revenues of $668.7 million. That beat Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line. Sales were up +15% from a year ago and profits were up +22%. The company said they are seeing strong adoption of their LED lighting solutions, which saw sales almost double from a year ago.

AYI said their Q4 and full year 2014 results were both records. AYI's Chairman, President, and CEO, Vernon Nagel, was very optimistic in his outlook. Mr. Nagel said,

"We remain very bullish about our prospects for future profitable growth. Third-party forecasts as well as key leading indicators suggest that the growth rate for the North American lighting market, which includes renovation and retrofit activity, will be in the mid-to-upper single digit range for fiscal 2015 with expectations that overall demand in our end markets will continue to experience solid growth over the next several years.

We believe the lighting and lighting-related industry will experience solid growth over the next decade, particularly as energy and environmental concerns come to the forefront along with emerging opportunities for digital lighting to play a key role in the Internet of Things. We believe we are well positioned to fully participate in this exciting industry."

Since the report Goldman Sachs has added AYI to their conviction buy list and Oppenheimer has raised their price target on AYI to $160. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $162 target. Zacks is bullish on the account they are seeing analysts revising their earnings estimates for AYI higher.

Currently shares of AYI have been hovering near resistance in the $135.00 area. Today's move is starting to look like a bullish breakout. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $136.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $140 call (AYI141220c140) entry $3.80

11/01/14 new stop @ 135.25
10/28/14 triggered @ $136.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 137.71 change: +0.62

Stop Loss: 134.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +166.2%
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
Entry on October 30 at $132.25
Listed on October 29, 2014
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in December
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: COST added +0.45% on Friday, closing at another record high. Shares are now up three weeks in a row and up 15% for 2014. We are raising our stop loss to $134.75. If the stock sees any pullback we will look for support near $135.00.

I am not suggesting new positions at the moment.

Earlier Comments: October 29, 2014
COST is part of the services sector. The company runs a discount, membership sales warehouse. The company's latest earnings report said Costco currently operates 664 warehouses, including 469 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 88 in Canada, 33 in Mexico, 26 in the United Kingdom, 20 in Japan, 11 in Korea, 10 in Taiwan, six in Australia and one in Spain.

The company has struggled to hit Wall Street's bottom line estimates for over a year but steady improvement in their same-store sales have helped drive the stock higher. A strong back to school shopping season and higher membership fees fueled a better than expected quarterly report.

COST reported their Q4 numbers on October 8th. After missing estimates for five quarters in a row the company finally beat estimates. Analysts were expecting a profit of $1.52 a share on revenues of $35.3 billion. COST delivered $1.58 a share with revenues up +9.3% to $35.52 billion. The net profit number was up +13% and gross margins improved 15 basis points.

COST also reported that their e-commerce sales continue to grow at a brisk pace and their online sales rose +18% in their fourth quarter. Same-store (comparable store) sales remain a key metric to watch. COST's Q4 same-store sales were up +4% yet if you back out falling gasoline prices and currency effects their comparable store sales were up +6% for the quarter versus +4.5% a year ago. Membership renewal rates remain very strong at 91% in the U.S. and 87% globally. COST plans to open up to eight more locations before the end of the 2014 calendar year.

The company also recently announced their first foray into China. COST has entered the Chinese market with an online store through Alibaba Group's (BABA) Tmall Global platform.

The holiday shopping season is almost upon us with less than 60 days before Christmas. COST is poised to do well since the company caters to the higher-end more affluent customer.

Shares are hovering just below the $132.00 level. Tonight we are suggesting at trigger to buy calls at $132.25. We will plan on exiting positions prior to their December earnings report.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $135 call (COST141220c135) entry $1.54

11/08/14 new stop @ 134.75
11/01/14 new stop @ 130.75
10/30/14 triggered @ 132.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


DineEquity, Inc. - DIN - close: 92.68 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 89.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -29.1%
Average Daily Volume = 154 thousand
Entry on November 05 at $91.55
Listed on November 04, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: Traders bought the dip in DIN twice on Friday. Shares started accelerating higher late that afternoon. This is another record high. Unfortunately the bid on our call option retreated but the option should recover quickly if DIN continues to hit new highs.

Tonight we are moving the stop loss to $89.65. I'm not suggesting new positions at the moment.

Earlier Comments: November 4, 2014:
Restaurant stocks were showing relative strength today. Better than expected earnings results from the likes of Red Robin (RRGB) and Bloomin Brands (BLMN) helped buoy the group. Additional stocks in this industry showing relative strength on Tuesday are: BWLD, PNRA, JACK, EAT, SONC, TXRH, KKD, DNKN, CAKE, DRI, and PBP. The one we like tonight is DIN.

According to a company press release, "Based in Glendale, California, DineEquity, Inc., through its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar and IHOP brands. With more than 3,600 restaurants combined in 19 countries, over 400 franchisees and approximately 200,000 team members (including franchisee- and company-operated restaurant employees), DineEquity is one of the largest full-service restaurant companies in the world."

The company has seen success with a steady improvement in earnings. DIN has beaten Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line three quarters in a row. Their most recent report was October 28th. Analysts were looking for a profit of $1.05 a share on revenues of $157.2 million. DIN served up $1.14 per share with revenues climbing to $162.85 million.

The company saw domestic system-wide same-store sales up +2.4% at IHOP and +1.7% at Applebee's. Management then raised their sales guidance on both Applebee's and IHOP. DIN also raised its dividend by 17% to $0.875 per share and they boosted their stock buyback program from $40 million to $100 million.

The restaurant industry should be a major beneficiary of the drop in oil prices. Lower gasoline prices at the pump mean consumers have more spending money and will likely burn a lot of that cash eating at restaurants.

Shares broke out to new highs on this earnings report and bullish guidance. Today the stock is at all-time highs. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a long-term target at $118.00.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $91.55.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $95 call (DIN141220c95) entry $1.20

11/08/14 new stop @ 89.65
11/05/14 triggered @ 91.55
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


FedEx Corp. - FDX - close: 171.22 change: -0.48

Stop Loss: 165.50
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +147.1%
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Entry on October 17 at $155.50
Listed on October 15, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: It was another bullish week for FDX. Shares managed to breakout past a trend line of higher highs (see chart below). Traders bought the dip on Friday and FDX pared its loss by the closing bell.

Tonight we are moving our stop loss to $165.50. More conservative traders may want to consider taking some money off the table.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: October 15, 2014:
Last year a last minute surge of online shoppers overwhelmed the system and thousands of Christmas presents were delivered late. Part of the problem was terrible weather. The other challenge was the growth in online shopping. Amazon.com (AMZN) blamed UPS for the mass of delayed deliveries last year. You can bet that UPS' rival FDX has taken notice and plans to be ready this year.

Market research firm EMarketer is estimating that retail online shopping will surge +17% in 2014 to $72.4 billion. That might be under estimating the growth, especially this year as many consumers might opt to shop online instead of face the crowds and risk being a target for terrorism or catching Ebola. Granted neither a terrorist event inside the U.S. and a widespread outbreak of Ebola in the states has happened yet but people are already afraid with the daily headlines about the virus.

UPS and FDX hope to be ready. UPS is hiring up to 95,000 seasonal workers and FDX is hiring 50,000 holiday workers this year. That's 10K more than last year for FDX.

In addition to the surge in online shopping FDX should also benefit from the multi-year lows in oil prices. Low oil prices means lower fuel costs, one of FDX's biggest expenses.

It would appear that FDX has fine tuned its earnings machine as well. Their latest earnings report was September 17th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $1.95 a share on revenues of $11.46 billion. FDX delivered a profit of $2.10 a share with revenues up to $11.7 billion. That's a +24% increase in earnings from a year ago and the second quarter in a row that FDX beat EPS estimates.

FDX chairman, president, and CEO Frederick Smith said, "FedEx Corp. is off to an outstanding start in fiscal 2015, thanks to very strong performance at FedEx Ground, solid volume and revenue increases at FedEx Freight and healthy growth in U.S. domestic volume at FedEx Express." Business has been strong enough that a few weeks ago FDX started raising prices on some services.

Since that September earnings report Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets. Some of the new price targets for FDX stock are $175, $180 and $183 a share.

The recent sell-off in the market and FDX could be an opportunity. FDX has already seen a -10% correction from its intraday high near $165 to today's low near $149. Right now FDX sits just below resistance near $155.

We're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $155.50.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2015 Jan $160 call (FDX150117c160) entry $5.30

11/08/14 new stop @ 165.50
11/01/14 new stop @ 163.45
10/28/14 new stop @ 162.65, traders may want to take profits now!
10/25/14 new stop @ 157.85
10/23/14 new stop @ 155.90
FDX is nearing resistance at $164.00. Traders may want to take profits now.
10/21/14 new stop @ 153.45
10/17/14 triggered @ 155.50
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. - GMCR - close: 152.90 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 148.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +47.4%
Current Option/Gain loss if you sold the NOV $160 call: +677.7%
Average Daily Volume = 1.68 million
Entry on October 28 at $145.75
Listed on October 25, 2014
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on November 19th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: GMCR also rebounded from its intraday lows on Friday but shares closed with a minor decline. The stock is still up for the week and marked its third weekly gain in a row. Shares are up five out of the last six weeks. The stock seems to be consolidating its gains in the $150-155 zone (actually closer to $154.00). We are going to try and reduce our risk by raising the stop loss to $148.65.

Keep in mind that earnings are coming up on November 19th. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: October 25, 2014:
GMCR is labeled as part of the consumer goods business. GMCR describes their company as "a leader in specialty coffee, coffee makers, teas and other beverages, Keurig Green Mountain (Keurig), is recognized for its award-winning beverages, innovative brewing technology, and socially responsible business practices. The Company has inspired consumer passion for its products by revolutionizing beverage preparation at home and in the workplace." GMCR makes almost 300 varieties of coffee, hot cocoa, teas, and other beverages in K-cup and Vue portion packs.

The company's latest earnings report back in August were better than expected but revenues were a disappointment and management guided lower. Yet the stock did see much follow through on the initial post-earnings drop. Then a couple of weeks later shares of GMCR soared to new highs on news it had finally signed a licensing deal with Kraft Foods, the second largest food and beverage company in the world. GMCR already had licensing deals with all the major coffee brands but Kraft was the lone holdout.

Several weeks later shares of GMCR soared again after Goldman Sachs slapped a buy rating on the stock and gave it a 12-month $166 price target. The Goldman analyst believes GMCR will see sales rise at a compounded annual growth rate of almost 30% and profits will soared at 23% per year through 2017.

On a short-term basis the middle of last week was starting to look like a top, especially with Thursday's bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. Yet there was no confirmation on Friday.

Friday's intraday high was $145.54. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $145.75. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $141.90. We are not setting an exit target yet but I will note the point & figure chart is suggesting a $182.00 target.

Earnings are coming up on November 19th. We will plan on exiting prior to the announcement. More aggressive traders may want to take a longer-term approach and hold over the announcement (and use longer-dated calls).

- Suggested Positions -

Long NOV $150 call (GMCR141122C150) entry $6.17

- plus -

(On November 3rd, 2014, Sell the November $160 call)
Short NOV $160 call (GMCR141122C160) sold short @ $5.00

11/08/14 new stop @ 148.65
11/05/14 new stop @ 144.90
11/03/14 Sold short the NOV $160 call
11/01/14 Strategy Update: Sell the Nov $160 call on Monday morning, November 3rd
10/30/14 new stop @ 143.25
10/28/14 triggered @ $145.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


iShares Transportation ETF - IYT - close: 160.32 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 156.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +370.5%
Current Option/Gain loss if you sold the NOV $159 call: +900.0%
Average Daily Volume = 320 thousand
Entry on October 13 at $138.75
Listed on October 11, 2014
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: Oil posted another loss for the week but it did bounce from its mid-week lows. This oversold bounce in oil might be slowing the rally in the transports, which have seen a huge rebound from their October low.

The IYT didn't move much on Friday but our November $143 call showed improvement.

Tonight we are moving the stop loss to $156.85.

We have two weeks left on our November options.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: October 11, 2014:
The IYT is an exchange traded fund (ETF) that tries to mimic the performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Average index.

Stocks have been sinking as investors worry about a global slowdown, especially in Europe. Yet the U.S. economy is still growing. Plunging oil prices should be great news for both business and consumers. Lower fuel costs means more money to spend elsewhere. Lower fuel prices also mean better margins for transportation companies.

The IYT has hit correction territory with a -10% pullback from its September highs about four weeks ago. When the market finally bounces the transports should lead the market higher thanks to the U.S. economy and low oil prices.

It looks like IYT's current drop could be near a bottom. Volume was almost three times the norm on Friday and shares settled near technical support at its simple 200-dma. We suspect the market will see another push lower before bouncing. That could see the IYT pierce the $140 level.

Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $138.75 with a stop loss at $134.45. This should be considered a higher-risk, more aggressive trade. You've heard the term "catching a falling knife" and that's what we're trying to do. You may want to wait for the IYT to pierce $140.00 and then buy the rebound back above this level as an alternative strategy.

*Higher-risk, more aggressive trade* - Suggested Positions -

Long NOV $143 call (IYT141122c143) entry $3.40

- plus -

(sell short the Nov $159 call on October 29th)
Short NOV $159 call (IYT141122c159) entry $1.80

11/08/14 new stop @ 156.85
11/06/14 new stop @ 154.50
10/29/14 IYT gapped open higher at $157.44 (+56 cents)
10/28/14 Strategy Update: new stop @ 151.85, Plus, we want to sell the November $159.00 call (current bid is $1.75).
10/25/14 new stop @ 148.65, traders may want to take some money off the table now
10/23/14 new stop @ 147.25
10/21/14 new stop @ 144.65
10/18/14 new stop @ 141.75
10/13/14 triggered @ 138.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


ServiceNow, Inc. - NOW - close: 67.79 change: +0.94

Stop Loss: 64.90
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -15.7%
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Entry on October 31 at $67.46
Listed on October 30, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: Shares of NOW continue to bounce from their midweek lows near the rising 10-dma. The stock displayed relative strength on Friday with a +1.4% gain. NOW looks poised to make another run at $70 soon.

Earlier Comments: October 30, 2014:
NOW is in the technology sector. The company provides cloud-based IT solutions across most of the world. According to the company website, "ServiceNow is the enterprise IT cloud company. We transform IT by automating and managing IT service relationships across the global enterprise. Organizations deploy our service to create a single system of record for IT and automate manual tasks, standardize processes, and consolidate legacy systems. Using our extensible platform, our customers create custom applications and evolve the IT service model to service domains inside and outside the enterprise."

NOW is less than three years old as a public company. Their IPO price was $18.00 and they opened at $23.75 back June 2012. It's been a roller coaster ride for investors but the trend is higher. NOW is one of the fastest-growing enterprise software companies. They're stealing market share from older, larger firms like CA Technologies, Hewlett-Packard, and BMC Software.

NOW is developing a very bullish pattern of strong revenues and raising guidance. The last four quarterly reports in a row have seen NOW meet or beat Wall Street's earnings estimate, beat the revenue estimate, and raise guidance every time.

Their most recent quarterly report was October 22nd. Wall Street expected a profit of $0.01 per share on revenues of $174.4 million. NOW delivered $0.03 with revenues rising +60% to $178.7 million. They added 150 new customers in the quarter, which puts their total at 2,514 clients. Their renewal rate is 98%. NOW raised their Q4 guidance above Wall Street's estimates.

NOW's President and CEO Frank Slootman said, "We had a solid third quarter as we continued to help our customers extend service management across the enterprise. The opportunities for us to expand within IT, as well as deliver value throughout the business, significantly broaden our addressable market and growth potential." Michael Scarpelli, their CFO, said, "Our strong third quarter performance included a record 11 deals greater than $1 million in annual contract value. We also achieved our first quarter of billings greater than $200 million."

Technically shares of NOW have broken out past resistance in the $65.00 area. The Point & Figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $74 target. The highs this past week have been near $67.00. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $67.25.

- Suggested Positions -

Long DEC $70 call (NOW141220c70) entry $2.85

11/05/14 new stop @ 64.90
10/31/14 triggered on gap higher at $67.46, suggested entry was $67.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


PriceSmart Inc. - PSMT - close: 92.45 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 89.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 156 thousand
Entry on November -- at $---.--
Listed on November 06, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/08/14: Friday proved to be a relatively quiet day for shares of PSMT. The stock traded sideways with traders buying the midday dip near its simple 200-dma. I'm a little surprised PSMT wasn't stronger. Before the opening bell the company announced October same-store sales growth of +1.7%, which was above analysts' estimates of +1.2%.

PSMT still looks poised to breakout to new relative highs. Our suggested entry point is $92.75.

Earlier Comments: November 6, 2014:
PSMT is in the services sector. The company is essentially the Costco of Latin America. A company press release describes them this way, "PriceSmart, headquartered in San Diego, owns and operates U.S.-style membership shopping warehouse clubs in Latin America and the Caribbean, selling high quality merchandise at low prices to PriceSmart members. PriceSmart now operates 34 warehouse clubs in 12 countries and one U.S. territory (six in Costa Rica; four each in Panama, Trinidad, and Colombia; three each in Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, and Honduras; two in El Salvador; and one each in Aruba, Barbados, Jamaica, Nicaragua and the United States Virgin Islands)."

A lot of PSMT's locations are in fast growing countries. Honduras has an annual growth rate of +3.1%. Costa Rica's is +4.2%. Columbia & Guatemala are growing at +4.3%. Panama latest GDP was +6.3%. Yet a few countries are struggling. Trinidad's growth rate is -1.2% while the Dominican Republic's plunged to an annual pace of -13%. Overall the consolidate trend is positive for PSMT's environment and they're building new stores in Columbia.

The company's latest earnings report was mixed. Their 73-cent earnings missed estimates by one cent but revenues were up +6.3% for the year and above Wall Street's estimate. This was PSMT's fourth quarter and they ended their fiscal year with sales of $2.4 billion, a +9.2% increase. Overall same-store sales rose +4.8%. Management reported double-digit sales growth for the year in Columbia, Panama, Trinidad, and Aruba.

Technically the stock has been in a bear market after a sharp decline from its late 2013 highs near $125 a share. PSMT appears to have built a base in the $80-92 range over the last few months. Now shares are starting to breakout from this significant consolidation pattern. Today's rally is significant because it's a bullish breakout above technical resistance at the 200-dma. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting a target of $102.

The October 29th intraday high was $92.68. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $92.75.

Trigger @ $92.75

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the 2015 Jan $95 call (PSMT150117C95) current ask $3.50

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


The Sherwin-Williams Co. - SHW - close: 236.04 change: +2.82

Stop Loss: 229.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +36.4%
Average Daily Volume = 526 thousand
Entry on November 05 at $231.00
Listed on November 01, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: The rally in SHW continued on Friday with shares still showing relative strength. The stock is now up four weeks in a row and not showing any signs of slowing down.

Tonight we are moving the stop loss up to $229.75.

Earlier Comments: November 1, 2014:
It's not very often you see a company about to celebrate its 150th birthday. For SHW that will be the year 2016. The company has been in business since 1866. The Company's core business is the manufacture, distribution and sale of coatings and related products. SHW is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. They sell through over 4,100 company-operated stores. Their global group has sales in more than 115 countries. Sherwin-Williams is also a very well known dividend payer and has annually increased dividends since 1979.

The slow and steady economic improvement in the U.S. has been beneficial. The real estate market has also helped SHW. New homes need new paint. The pace of new home sales in the U.S. hit six-year highs last month. While home sales do tend to slow down a bit in the winter months SHW should benefit from lower input costs. Crude oil and natural gas are big components in the paint and coatings industry. The severe drop in oil the last few months is a blessing for SHW.

The company raised their earnings guidance back in July. They issued bullish guidance again in their latest quarterly report. SHW announced earnings on October 28th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $3.22 per share on revenues of $3.18 billion. SHW said their earnings rose +31.4% to a record-setting $3.35 per share. Revenues were up +10.6% at $3.15 billion, which missed the estimate.

SHW's remodeling business saw growth. The real driver was paint sales. Their paint stores account for the lion's share of sales, which saw revenues up +20%. SHW also purchased 2.0 million shares of their stock last quarter and still have 6.8 million yet to buy in their stock buy back program.

Management was optimistic. SHW's Chairman and CEO MR. Christopher Connor, said,

"We are pleased to report record sales and earnings per share in the third quarter and first nine months of 2014 on the continued positive sales volume and strong operating results of our Paint Stores Group. The Paint Stores Group architectural volume growth was positive across all end market segments. The Comex acquisition continues to perform better than expected in the year. Our Consumer Group improved its operating results through higher volume sales and operating efficiencies. Our Global Finishes Group continues to improve its operating margins through improved operating efficiencies."

Management raised their 2014 EPS guidance above Wall Street's estimates. They also raised their revenue guidance but this was only in-line with consensus. SHW now expects Q4 sales in the +6% to +8% range. They expect earnings to be in the $1.30-1.40 range versus $1.14 in the fourth quarter of 2013.

The stock's relative strength has driven shares to new all-time highs and a +25% gain in 2014. The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at long-term target at $286.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $231.00.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2015 Jan $240 call (SHW150117c240) entry $3.37

11/08/14 new stop @ 229.75
11/05/14 triggered @ 231.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Semiconductor ETF - SMH - close: 51.58 change: -0.40

Stop Loss: 48.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +136.3%
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Entry on October 17 at $47.15
Listed on October 16, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: Semiconductor stocks have been very strong with a four-week rally from its October lows. Yet the rally started to stall the last couple of days. The SMH dipped toward its 10-dma before paring its losses on Friday.

I do not see any changes from my recent comments. The September highs near $52.60 could be resistance. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments: October 16, 2014:
It looks like the correction in the semiconductor stocks might be done.

The SMH is the Market Vectors Semiconductor Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tries to mimic the performance of the Market Vectors Semiconductor 25 index. Semiconductors as a group had been strong performers with the SMH up +73% from its late 2012 lows.

A few weeks ago the industry started to see some profit taking. MCHP issued an earnings warning last week that that sparked the massive plunge in the SMH. The SMH has witnessed a -15% correction from its 2014 closing high to the closing low on Monday this week. Now it has started to bounce. It's possible all the panic selling is over.

Intel (INTC), a much bigger company than MCHP, just reported earnings on October 14th and the results were better than Wall Street expected. More importantly INTC offered slightly bullish guidance.

Bloomberg noted that INTC said its PC-processor business rose +8.9% last quarter. Sales for INTC's chips for notebook computers soared +21%. Even chips for desktop PCs rose +6% in the third quarter.

The strong results from INTC have helped buoy the SMH, which is starting to rebound after testing (and piercing) long-term support on its weekly chart (shown below).

We suspect the worst might be over. However, this could be a volatile trade. There are a lot of semiconductor companies who have yet to report their results.

The SMH saw its rally stall under $47 and near its 200-dma. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $47.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2015 Jan $50 call (SMH150117c50) entry $1.10

11/01/14 new stop @ 48.85
10/25/14 new stop @ 47.85
10/21/14 new stop @ 46.35
10/17/14 triggered @ 47.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


United Rentals, Inc. - URI - close: 113.39 change: -0.37

Stop Loss: 107.15
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +15.5%
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Entry on November 03 at $110.55
Listed on November 01, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: Shares of URI tagged potential round-number resistance at $115.00 on Friday before giving back all of its gains for the session. The stock did garner some bullish analyst comments on CNBC midday.

Broken resistance near $110 should be new support. Tonight we are raising our stop loss up to $107.15.

Earlier Comments: November 1, 2014:
URI is a company that is gaining market share. Traditionally the equipment rental business has been a very fragmented industry with a lot of mom and pop stores. URI has decided that being the biggest offers a better selection to their clients. Today URI is the biggest equipment rental company in the world.

Twenty years ago commercial construction clients only accounted for about 15% of the equipment rental market. Today that number is closer to 50%. The last few years have seen a strong trend of construction companies choosing to rent equipment instead of buy new equipment due to an uncertain economic outlook.

According to URI's website they were founded in 1997 and have grown into a network of 832 rental locations in 49 states and 10 Canadian provinces. Their rental fleet includes 3,100 classes of equipment.

Earnings are improving. The last couple of quarterly reports have been strong. In the July 16th report URI beat Wall Street estimates with a profit of $1.65 per share on revenues of $1.399 billion. That was a +47% improvement from a year ago and management raised their guidance.

The most recent report was October 15th. Again URI beat estimates. Analysts were looking for a profit of $2.12 per share on revenues of $1.51 billion. URI delivered $2.20 per share with revenues up +17.8% to $1.54 billion. This was a +34% jump in URI's earnings from a year ago. Margins hit a record +49.3% in the third quarter. They reaffirmed their guidance.

URI's CEO Mr. Michael Kneeland commented on his company's report and said,

"The third quarter provided further confirmation that our strategy and the North American construction recovery are both solidly on track. Our end markets are continuing to rally, creating numerous opportunities for well-managed, profitable growth. We reported a robust 16% increase in rental revenue for the quarter— and more importantly, the discipline behind that growth is evident in our record EBITDA margin and gains in volume, utilization and rates."

Technically the stock experienced a painful correction from $120 to $90 during the market's pullback in September-October. The bounce back stalled at resistance near $110 and its 100-dma and 50-dma. However, after a two-week consolidation in the $105-110 zone, shares of URI now look poised to breakout. Shares were showing relative strength on Friday with a +3.7% gain.

The 50-dma is directly overhead at $110.17 and the intraday high on Friday was $110.39. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $110.55.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2015 Jan $115 call (URI150117c115) entry $4.50

11/08/14 new stop @ 107.15
11/03/14 triggered @ 110.55
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:




PUT Play Updates

FMC Corp. - FMC - close: 57.00 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 58.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -46.1%
Average Daily Volume = 1.42 million
Entry on November 04 at $55.85
Listed on November 03, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: The bounce in FMC seems to be stalling at its 40-dma, which is a good sign for the bears. Traders may want to wait for show new relative weakness before initiating bearish positions.

Earlier Comments: November 3, 2014:
FMC is in the basic materials sector. They are a diversified chemical company with agricultural chemicals, minerals, and health and nutrition businesses.

It has been a rough year for shareholders as FMC peaked in March this year and has been sliding lower every since. That's because the earnings picture has been deteriorating. You can see on the daily chart below where FMC issued an earnings warning in June. Then when they reported earnings in late July they missed estimates. It's not great when you warn about earnings and still miss Wall Street's lowered estimates.

FMC's most recent earnings report was October 29th. The company missed on both the top and bottom line. Analysts were expecting a profit of 96 cents a share on revenues of $1.06 billion. FMC only delivered 95 cents with revenues of $1.02 billion. The biggest part of their business, the Agricultural Solutions, which represents nearly half of FMC's sales, reported a small +2% revenue growth from a year ago.

In the company press release, Pierre Brondeau, FMC president, CEO and chairman, said: "In the third quarter, market dynamics continued to affect our portfolio. Agricultural markets were impacted by multiple factors around the world, a softening of demand in China affected parts of our Health and Nutrition portfolio, and Argentina continued to weigh on Lithium's results." Brondeau also noted they are concerned over some beverage products in China that have seen two quarters in a row of declining demand.

The weakness in shares of FMC have produced a -24% decline in 2014 versus the S&P 500's +10% gain. Meanwhile FMC's point & figure chart is suggesting the selling will continue and is pointing to a $25.00 target.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $55.85. More conservative investors might want to wait for a breakdown under $55.00 instead.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2015 Jan $55 PUT (FMC150117P55) entry $1.95

11/04/14 triggered @ $55.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Intl. Business Machines - IBM - close: 162.07 change: +0.61

Stop Loss: 165.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -15.0%
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
Entry on November 06 at $160.90
Listed on November 05, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: It has been a rough few weeks for IBM. After testing the $160 level on Thursday the stock managed an anemic +0.3% bounce on Friday. At this points I'd like to see a drop under Friday's low (160.85) or a drop under $160.00 before considering new bearish positions.

Earlier Comments: November 5, 2014:
IBM is considered a bellwether in the technology sector. The company was founded back 1910 and has been known as IBM since 1924. They've grown into a powerhouse of information technology, hardware, software, and services. Unfortunately for IBM and its shareholders the company's business seems to have stalled as it faces tougher competition across all of its products.

Big Blue, the company's nickname, was a master manipulator of the Wall Street earnings game. IBM has for years massaged its earnings per share results with massive stock buybacks. This wasn't a big secret. Then finally their strategy started to stall. IBM's stock struggled for years after its 1999 peak under $140 a share.

The stock market's QE fueled rally from the 2008 low fueled a massive run in IBM and shares grew from $70 late 2008 to over $215 in early 2013. While the U.S. market continued to run higher in 2013 and 2014 IBM did not participate. That's because revenues have been flat or declining since mid 2013. At the same time investors became more suspicious of the financial engineering of IBM's earnings results with its massive stock buybacks.

Big Blue has spent $108 billion on stock buybacks since 2000. About $12 billion of that was just in the first six months of 2014. IBM has also spent $30 billion on dividends since 2000. Now normally stock buybacks and dividends are shareholder friendly but critics argue that IBM has financed a lot of these expenses with debt. Meanwhile IBM's revenues have fallen to levels not seen since 2008.

IBM's most recent earnings report was October 20th and the results were a big disappointment that sent shares plunging to multi-year lows. Wall Street was looking for a profit of $4.32 per share on revenues of $23.37 billion. IBM reported $3.68 per share, a 64 cent miss. Earnings dropped -4% to $22.4 billion, another miss.

Management said revenues declined across all of their major product lines and geographies. EPS results were down -10%. Net income was down -18%. Gross margins were down 90 basis points to 49.2%. Revenues in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Africa were all down -2%. Revenues in Asia-Pacific slipped -9%.

IBM said they saw a significant slowdown in September and the sharp rise in the dollar played a big impact on its results. Furthermore management has removed their previous earnings guidance of $20 per share in 2015. Multiple analyst firms have lowered their price target on IBM following this report.

Bullish investors will argue that IBM has been steadily raising its dividend over the last several years, which is true. The stock currently has a respectable yield of 2.7%. Unfortunately, high-yield stocks are going to look less attractive when the Federal Reserve starts raising rates in 2015. Bulls will also argue that IBM is cheap on a valuation basis with its P/E down to 10. We also know a cheap stock can always get a lot cheaper. A value play could turn into a value trap.

Currently shares of IBM have already seen their oversold bounce roll over. If shares breakdown under their October lows the next support level could be the $140 area. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $160.90. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger under $160.00 instead.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2015 Jan $160 PUT (IBM150117P160) entry $4.00

11/06/14 triggered $ 160.90
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

NetEase, Inc. - NTES - close: 91.80 change: -1.00

Stop Loss: 91.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -24.5%
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Entry on October 21 at $91.59
Listed on Exit PRIOR to earnings on November 12th
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/08/14: NTES was not cooperating with us last week. In the Thursday night newsletter we decided to exit positions on Friday morning. Shares gapped down at $92.52 and then underperformed the broader market with a -1.0% decline.

The company has earnings coming up on November 12th.

- Suggested Positions -

NOV $95 call (NTES141122C95) entry $2.45 exit $1.85 (-24.5%)

11/07/14 planned exit at the open
11/05/14 prepare to exit tomorrow morning
11/01/14 new stop @ 91.45
10/23/14 new stop @ 89.40
10/21/14 triggered on gap higher at $91.59, trigger was $91.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: