Editor's Note:

The Federal Reserve soothed market fears over a rate hike in June. Removing the word "patient" from their statement was countered by dovish comments from Fed Chairman Yellen. Market veteran Art Cashin suggested the market has interpreted the Fed's move today to mean no rate hike this year. The major indices rocketed higher.

KORS hit our stop loss.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Aetna Inc. - AET - close: 107.48 change: +2.08

Stop Loss: 102.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +175.7%
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Entry on March 04 at $101.15
Listed on March 02, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: The stock market's big rally this afternoon helped send healthcare stocks to new highs. AET surged to a +1.9% gain. I would not chase it here. More conservative traders may want to start taking some money off the table.

Trade Description: March 2, 2015:
Healthcare stocks have been extremely strong performers from the market's mid October 2014 lows. Investors have continued to buy the dips and that's especially true in shares of AET. This stock has been outperforming the market in 2015 and currently up +12.0% for the year.

Who is AET? According to the company, "Aetna is one of the nation's leading diversified health care benefits companies, serving an estimated 46 million people with information and resources to help them make better informed decisions about their health care. Aetna offers a broad range of traditional, voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental, behavioral health, group life and disability plans, and medical management capabilities, Medicaid health care management services, workers' compensation administrative services and health information technology products and services. Aetna's customers include employer groups, individuals, college students, part-time and hourly workers, health plans, health care providers, governmental units, government-sponsored plans, labor groups and expatriates."

Investors have been bullish on big healthcare names because of the Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare). Initially this industry was resistant to the deal. Obamacare did get off to a rocky start. Yet now a couple of years after its launch most of the wrinkles have been ironed out. Obamacare has generated millions of new health insurance customers for the industry.

Earnings have been strong. AET's most recent earnings report was February 3rd. The company delivered a Q4 profit of $1.22 a share. That was in-line with estimates. Revenues were up +12.5% to $14.77 billion, which was above expectations. More importantly AET raised their 2015 guidance from $6.90 a share to $7.00. That's actually below Wall Street's estimate but it's moving the right direction. Multiple analysts raised their price target on AET following the Q4 report. Meanwhile the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at $119 target.

The healthcare providers got another boost last week on February 23rd after the government issued new proposals to raise the rate they pay insurers for Medicare/Medicaid. Shares of AET have not seen that much profit taking from its February high and traders are already buying the dip.

We want to jump on board if this rally continues. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $101.15. We'll try and limit our risk with an initial stop loss at $98.85.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $105 CALL (AET150417C105) entry $1.36

03/16/15 new stop @ 102.85
Our option has more than doubled. Traders might want to take some money off the table here.
03/04/15 triggered @ 101.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Cavium, Inc. - CAVM - close: 70.74 change: +0.94

Stop Loss: 68.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -5.3%
Average Daily Volume = 737 thousand
Entry on February 27 at $68.75
Listed on February 26, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: It was a volatile afternoon for CAVM. Shares almost hit our stop loss before rebounding. The stock remains under resistance in the $72.00 region. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: February 26, 2015:
Semiconductor stocks have been showing relative strength this year. The SOX semiconductor index is already up +4.3%. CAVM is outperforming its peers with a +10.6% gain.

If you're not familiar with CAVM, Investors.com described the company as "a specialty niche designer of network security processors 14 years ago" that has grown into "a mainstream player challenging the likes of Intel, Broadcom, and Freescale Semiconductor."

The company describes itself as "Cavium is a leading provider of highly integrated semiconductor products that enable intelligent processing in enterprise, data center, cloud and wired and wireless service provider applications. Cavium offers a broad portfolio of integrated, software-compatible processors ranging in performance from 100 Mbps to 100 Gbps that enable secure, intelligent functionality in enterprise, data-center, broadband/consumer and access and service provider equipment. Cavium's processors are supported by ecosystem partners that provide operating systems, tool support, reference designs and other services. Cavium's principal office is in San Jose, CA with design team locations in California, Massachusetts, India and China."

The last four quarterly earnings reports have been better than expected. CAVM has consistently beat analysts' estimates on both the top and bottom line. Revenue growth has slowly accelerated from +19.7% in Q1 2014, +22.2% in Q2, +23.6% in Q3, and +25% in Q4 2014.

CAVM's CEO Syed Ali is optimistic on 2015 saying, "This will be the single biggest year of new product introductions in our history."

Meanwhile analyst Christopher Rolland, with FBR Capital Markets, commented on the company, saying, "innovative design team, solid pipeline of new products and ability to increasingly tap into a fast-growing hyperscale customer base should provide a solid backdrop of growth for the next few years."

Wall Street expects CAVM revenue growth of +20% in 2015 and earnings growth of +26%. The point & figure chart is very bullish and forecasting a long-term target of $96.00. Technically shares spent the last few days consolidating sideways but today's display of relative strength is a bullish breakout. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $68.75. (FYI: April and May options are not available yet so we chose June)

- Suggested Positions -

Long JUN $75 CALL (CAVM150619C75) entry $3.80

03/17/15 new stop @ 68.45
03/07/15 new stop @ 67.65
02/27/15 triggered @ $68.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Cracker Barrel - CBRL - close: 152.89 change: -1.31

Stop Loss: 149.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 320 thousand
Entry on March -- at $---.--
Listed on March 17, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/18/15: Hmm... I'm not sure if we should be encouraged that traders bought the dip in CBRL at round-number support near the $150.00 mark or if we should be concerned that CBRL underperformed the market with a -0.8% decline.

Currently we are on the sidelines. Our suggested entry point to buy calls is at $155.55.

Trade Description: March 17, 2015:
Looking at the big picture for retail we have not seen any significant evidence that lower gasoline prices has boosted consumer spending. The one exception might be restaurant sales and CBRL is definitely near the top of the list. It is probably no coincidence that a big number of CBRL's locations are located near the interstate highway (and likely near a gas station).

The company describes itself as "Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. provides a friendly home-away-from-home in its old country stores and restaurants. Guests are cared for like family while relaxing and enjoying real home-style food and shopping that’s surprisingly unique, genuinely fun and reminiscent of America's country heritage…all at a fair price. The restaurant serves up delicious, home-style country food such as meatloaf and homemade chicken n' dumplins as well as its made-from-scratch biscuits using an old family recipe. The authentic old country retail store is fun to shop and offers unique gifts and self-indulgences. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) was established in 1969 in Lebanon, Tenn. and operates 634 company-owned locations in 42 states."

CBRL has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimates the last three quarters in a row. Their most recent report was their Q2 on February 24th. Analysts were looking for a profit of $1.62 a share on revenues of $734 million. CBRL crushed the numbers with a profit of $1.93 a share, which is a +24% improvement from a year ago. Revenues were up +8.2% to $756 million. Management said comparable store restaurant sales were up +7.9%. Their average check was up +3.2%.

CBRL raised their 2015 guidance from $5.95-6.10 to $6.40-6.50. Consensus was only $6.13. They raised their revenue forecast from $2.8 billion to $2.8-2.85 billion. Wall Street was forecasting $2.82 billion. Following CBRL's better than expected results and bullish forecast the stock received a couple of upgrades with price targets in the $165-170 range.

A few days after their earnings report the company announced a $1.00 dividend payable on May 5th to shareholders on record as of April 17th, 2015. The stock's current dividend yield is 2.5%, above the 2.0% yield of the 10-year bond.

The stock exploded higher following its earnings results in February. That's probably thanks to some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 14% of the very small 18.9 million share float. The stock's big rally also produced a buy signal on the point & figure chart that is now forecasting a long-term target of $220.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $155.55.

Trigger @ $155.55

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the JUN $160 CALL (CBRL150619C160)

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Salesforce.com, Inc. - CRM - close: 68.55 change: +1.00

Stop Loss: 62.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +24.1%
Average Daily Volume = 4.5 million
Entry on March 17 at $66.75
Listed on March 16, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to May option expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: CRM quietly churned sideways until the Fed decision was announced. The stock rallied more than $2.00 before settling with a +1.48% gain. I would not be surprised to see a little profit taking when shares tag resistance near $70.00.

Trade Description: March 16, 2015:
This year could be a good one for shares of CRM. The stock spent most of last year churning sideways in the $50-65 range. CRM managed to end 2014 with a +7.4% gain, which underperformed the major indices. Today CRM is up +12% in 2015 and that's after a correction from its post-earnings highs in February.

Marc Benioff is CRM's CEO and Chairman. After CRM's recent Q4 earnings report Benioff said, "Salesforce reached $5 billion in annual revenue faster than any other enterprise software company and now it's our goal to be the fastest to reach $10 billion."

If you're not familiar with CRM the company describes itself as "Salesforce.com is the world's largest provider of customer relationship management (CRM) software. Our industry-leading CRM platform has become the world's leading enterprise cloud ecosystem. Industries and companies of all sizes can connect to their customers in a whole new way using the latest innovations in mobile, social, and cloud technology to sell, service, market, and succeed like never before. Salesforce has headquarters in San Francisco, with offices in Europe and Asia."

Their most recent earnings report was February 25th, after the closing bell. CRM's Q4 2015 earnings and revenues were both in-line with estimates at $0.14 a share on sales of $1.44 for the fourth quarter. Revenues were up +26% in the fourth quarter and up +32% for the full year. They were up +29% in the fourth quarter if you account for currency headwinds.

Almost 93% of CRM's sales are their subscription software business. In the fourth quarter their subscription software service was up +25% and their professional services subscription was up +41%. Back in fiscal year 2014 CRM signed 100 big deals in the seven-to-eight figure range. This past year the number of big deals surged to 550. Analysts were happy to see CRM's deferred revenues grow, which jumped +32% in the fourth quarter, up from +28% in the third quarter.

Benioff commented on their results, "Salesforce delivered yet another year of exceptional growth, with revenue, deferred revenue and operating cash flow all growing more than 30%, while exceeding our expectations in non-GAAP operating margin improvement."

CRM guided for +21% sales growth in 2016 (up to $6.52 billion). This was just above their prior guidance and in-line with Wall Street estimates. The company now expects their 2016 earnings in the $0.67-0.69 range compared to analysts' estimates of $0.69. Consensus estimates are for $6.5 billion in sales. Wall Street analysts praised CRM's results. There was a parade of price target upgrades. Most of the new price targets are in the $79-80 range.

Shares have filled the gap from its post-earnings pop and investors have stepped in to buy shares at new support (prior resistance). Today's rally looks like an opportunity. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $66.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long MAY $70 CALL (CRM150515C70) entry $1.95

03/17/15 triggered @ 66.75
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Mallinckrodt - MNK - close: 132.51 change: +1.25

Stop Loss: 125.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +50.7%
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Entry on March 16 at $125.29
Listed on March 14, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: Another day, another new high for MNK. Shares are up $12.50 in just the last five sessions. It might be time for a dip soon. No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: March 14, 2015:
The relative strength in healthcare stocks continues. Healthcare and biotech stocks were big performers last year and that outperformance appears to be continuing into 2015. One stock that is really outperforming its peers is MNK. Shares delivered a +89% gain in 2014 and they're already up +25% in 2015.

MNK describes itself as "Mallinckrodt is a global specialty biopharmaceutical and medical imaging business that develops, manufactures, markets and distributes specialty pharmaceutical products and medical imaging agents. Areas of focus include therapeutic drugs for autoimmune and rare disease specialty areas like neurology, rheumatology, nephrology and pulmonology along with analgesics and central nervous system drugs for prescribing by office- and hospital-based physicians. The company's core strengths include the acquisition and management of highly regulated raw materials; deep regulatory expertise; and specialized chemistry, formulation and manufacturing capabilities. The company's Specialty Brands segment includes branded medicines such as OFIRMEV and Acthar; its Specialty Generics segment includes specialty generic drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients and external manufacturing; and the Global Medical Imaging segment includes contrast media and nuclear imaging agents. Mallinckrodt has approximately 5,500 employees worldwide and a commercial presence in roughly 65 countries. The company's fiscal 2014 revenue totaled $2.54 billion."

MNK's global medical imaging business has fallen from about one third of the company's sales to about a quarter as the specialty pharmaceuticals business continues to grow. One reason for the growth is MNK's acquisition strategy. Last year they purchased Cadence Pharmaceuticals for $1.3 billion, which added Ofirmev to MNK's stable of therapies. MNK also spent $5.6 billion to acquire Questcor Pharmaceuticals. This added Questcor's Acthar gel to MNK's drug business.

MNK has been really delivering on the earnings front. Last August they reported their Q3 2014 numbers with revenues up +14.6% and earnings of $1.20, which was $0.35 above expectations. Management also raised their 2014 guidance. In October 2014 they raised their 2015 guidance. Then in November MNK announced their Q4 2014 results with revenues up +44.8%, above expectations, and earnings of $1.68 per share, which was $0.27 higher than estimated.

The revenue and earnings parade continued when MNK reported their Q1 2015 numbers on February 3rd. The company's profit more than doubled with earnings up +109% to $1.84 per share. That beat Wall Street's estimate by 26 cents. Revenues accelerated as well with +60% improvement to $866.3 million. However, this time analysts had ratcheted up their estimates to $885 million. MNK said their gross profit margin improved to 50.6% from 47.3% a year ago. MNK is currently forecasting 2015 numbers of $6.70-7.20 a share on revenues in the $3.65-3.75 billion range.

Mark Trudeau, Chief Executive Officer and President of Mallinckrodt, commented on their recent results,

"Mallinckrodt is off to a good start in fiscal 2015 driven by strong performance across all of our businesses. We achieved meaningful top- and bottom-line growth particularly in the Specialty Brands and Specialty Generics segments, increasing the proportion of total company net sales from specialty pharmaceuticals to over 75% in the quarter. The strategies we have pursued have gone far toward transforming us into a leading specialty biopharmaceutical company, and we are highly focused on maintaining momentum and expanding our portfolio to provide durable, sustained growth."
Investors appear to believe in MNK's growth story. The stock has a steady trend of higher lows and higher highs. MNK popped on March 5th thanks to M&A news. Wall Street seems to approve. Normally shares of the acquired company go up and the acquirer go down but investors bought MNK too. MNK is spending $2.3 billion to buy privately held Ikaria. This company makes INOmax, which is an inhaled nitric oxide used to treat babies with respiratory issues. The acquisition will boost MNK's earnings by 25 cents a share in 2015.

Following the acquisition news multiple analysts have raised their price targets on MNK. The nearly all the new targets are about $140 a share. Today MNK is sitting just below what looks like round-number, psychological resistance at the $125.00 mark. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $125.15.

I'd rather buy May or June options but they're not available yet. We'll use the Julys.

- Suggested Positions -

Long JUL $130 CALL (MNK150717C130) entry $7.50

03/17/15 new stop @ 125.25
03/16/15 new stop @ 121.85
03/16/15 triggered on gap open at $125.29, suggested trigger was $125.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


NXP Semiconductors - NXPI - close: 105.36 change: +1.53

Stop Loss: 101.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +544.1%
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
Entry on February 12 at $84.15
Listed on February 11, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: It was a good day for NXPI bulls. Shares added another +1.4% and closed above round-number resistance at the $105.00 level.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: February 11, 2015:
According to Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook 2015 will be the year of Apple Pay. That's good news for NXPI. Apple launched its Apple Pay mobile payment system last September. In just the last four months it has taken off. About 8% of retailers already support it and estimates suggest that 38% of retailers will support Apple Pay by year end.

Tim Cook discussed the growth of Apple Pay in his company's recent conference call. Every $3 spent using mobile payments with Visa, Mastercard, and American Express, about $2 of that is used through Apple Pay. Panera Bread said that 80% of its mobile payment usage is through Apple Pay. Whole Foods noted that customers using mobile payments surged +400% once Apple Pay started.

All of this is good news for NXPI because they make the key chips necessary for Apple Pay to work.

The company describes itself as "NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) creates solutions that enable secure connections for a smarter world. Building on its expertise in High Performance Mixed Signal electronics, NXP is driving innovation in the automotive, identification and mobile industries, and in application areas including wireless infrastructure, lighting, healthcare, industrial, consumer tech and computing. NXP has operations in more than 25 countries, and posted revenue of $4.82 billion in 2013."

Earnings have been good. NXPI managed to beat Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line the last five quarters in a row. Back in July NXPI raised their guidance. Influential hedge fund manager David Tepper, who runs Appaloosa Management, launched a new position in NXPI back in the third quarter of 2014. In early December shares of NXPI were upgraded with a $100 price target by Oppenheimer.

NXPI's most recent earnings report as February 5th. Revenues surged +18.9%. Management delivered bullish earnings guidance for the first quarter. Since this report at least four analyst firms have raised their price targets on NXPI (most of them into the mid $90s).

Today NXPI just hit all-time highs. The stock had been consolidating sideways in at $75-82.50 trading range. This breakout looks like an entry point. I'm suggesting a trigger at $84.15 to buy calls.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Apr $90 CALL (NXPI150417C90) entry $2.36

03/16/15 new stop @ 101.65
03/13/15 NXPI soars on a "strong buy" rating and $140 price target
03/04/15 new stop @ 96.25
03/02/15 new stop @ 94.85, NXPI soars after announcing acquisition of FSL
02/21/15 new stop @ 83.25
02/17/15 new stop @ 80.35
02/12/15 triggered @ 84.15
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Under Armour, Inc. - UA - close: 80.03 change: +1.22

Stop Loss: 75.95
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +24.7%
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Entry on March 17 at $77.60
Listed on March 12, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: UA's rally continued with the stock up four out of the last five days. Shares stalled right at round-number resistance near the $80.00 level.

UA might be volatile on Friday morning as the stock reacts to earnings from its larger rival Nike (NKE). After the closing bell on Thursday NKE will report earnings and they will likely influence trading in UA.

Trade Description: March 12, 2015:
The NPD Group reports that Americans spent $323 billion on apparel, footwear, and related accessories last year. That's only a +1% improvement from the prior year but all of the growth was due to athletic footwear and apparel. There is a new trend in fashion and it's called "athleisure". Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at the NPD Group, said, "This is no longer a trend - it is now a lifestyle that is too comfortable, for consumers of all ages, for it to go away anytime soon."

UA is in the consumer goods sector. They make shoes and athletic wear. According to the company, "Under Armour (UA), the originator of performance footwear, apparel and equipment, revolutionized how athletes across the world dress. Designed to make all athletes better, the brand's innovative products are sold worldwide to athletes at all levels. The Under Armour Connected Fitnessâ„¢ platform powers the world's largest digital health and fitness community through a suite of applications: UA Record, MapMyFitness, Endomondo and MyFitnessPal."

The athletic shoe and athletic apparel business is very competitive. Nike (NKE) has dominated the space for years. UA is about 10% the size of NKE but it is actively fighting for market share and recently overtook Adidas as the second biggest athletic wear brand inside the United States. Nike had sales of $27.8 billion in 2014. UA is a fraction of that with 2014 sales of $3.08 billion but they saw growth of +32%.

UA isn't stopping with just apparel and footwear. They recently spent $710 million to buy the MapMyFitness, MyFitnessPal, and Endomondo apps. This has boosted UA's digital consumer audience to 130 million. UA management believes that more and more we will see technology and software move from our smartphone into a merger between apps and clothing.

UA has been firing on all cylinders with its earnings results. Most of last year saw the company not only beating Wall Street's estimates but also raising guidance. UA's most recent earnings report was February 4th. The company reported a profit of $0.40 a share with revenues climbing +31% to $895 million, which was above estimates for $849 million. UA's CEO Kevin Plank, in a recent interview, said his company will grow at 20%-plus in 2015. The company's current estimates are $3.76 billion in sales for the year.

You might notice that shares of UA held up pretty well during the market's recent sell-off. Shares only dipped toward support in the $74-75 area. During today's market rebound shares of UA outperformed with a +2.7% gain. More aggressive traders could buy calls now. I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $77.60.

- Suggested Positions -

Long JUL $80 CALL (UA150717C80) entry $4.09

03/18/15 be prepare for possible volatility on Friday morning as UA reacts to Nike's earnings out Thursday night.
03/17/15 new stop @ 75.95
03/17/15 triggered @ 77.60
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike




PUT Play Updates

Bunge Limited - BG - close: 80.06 change: +1.10

Stop Loss: 81.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -43.8%
Average Daily Volume = 1.0 million
Entry on March 18 at $78.45
Listed on March 11, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: BG was not immune to the market's widespread rally this afternoon. The stock gained +1.39% and closed right on round-number resistance at the $80.00 level. Unfortunately, just before the market rally today, shares of BG slipped low enough to tag our bearish entry point at $78.45.

Our play is open but I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Trade Description: March 11, 2015:
It only takes one earnings report to alter a stock's trajectory if the news is big enough. For BG it was the company's Q4 report announced in February.

BG is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company, "Bunge Limited (www.bunge.com, NYSE: BG) is a leading global agribusiness and food company operating in over 40 countries with approximately 35,000 employees. Bunge buys, sells, stores and transports oilseeds and grains to serve customers worldwide; processes oilseeds to make protein meal for animal feed and edible oil products for commercial customers and consumers; produces sugar and ethanol from sugarcane; mills wheat, corn and rice to make ingredients used by food companies; and sells fertilizer in South America. Founded in 1818, the company is headquartered in White Plains, New York."

The middle of 2014 the outlook for BG was a lot more enthusiastic. BG's Q2 earnings report (on July 31st) was better than expected and the company beat estimates on both the top and bottom line. Unfortunately the next two quarters were tough. BG's Q3 results were released on October and the company's profit of $1.31 a share was 59 cents worse than expected. Revenues were down -7.0% from a year ago.

That slowdown in earnings and revenues accelerated in the fourth quarter. BG reported its Q4 results on February 12th. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $2.52 a share on revenues of $16.5 billion. BG delivered $1.20 a share with revenues down -15% to $13.9 billion. That's a HUGE miss on both the top and bottom line.

The Wall Street Journal summed up the quarter this way, "upheavals in the commodity trading firm's oilseed businesses outweighed benefits from bumper U.S. corn and soybean crops." BG suffered terrible margins on their soybean crushing business in China and saw a slowdown in Europe. Their main agribusiness division reported net sales fell -20%.

Naturally investors reacted negatively. The stock plunged to support near $80.00. The initial oversold bounce stalled near $83.00. Now, about four weeks later, shares of BG are breaking down below key support at $80.00. The next support level appears to be the $73.50 area. The point & figure chart is forecasting at $67.00 target. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $78.45.

- Suggested Positions -

Long APR $80 PUT (BG150417P80) entry $2.49

03/18/15 triggered @ 78.45
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Deckers Outdoor - DECK - close: 71.69 change: +1.34

Stop Loss: 73.05
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -35.4%
Average Daily Volume = 922 thousand
Entry on March 10 at $71.46
Listed on March 09, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to April option expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: DECK ended yesterday's session on support at the $70.00 level. The rebound in DECK today started this morning and shares didn't really see much of a post-FOMC meeting move. It just continued the up trend from the first half of the session. It's worth noting that the rebound did stall at prior support and now new resistance in the $72.00 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Trade Description: March 9, 2015:
Consumers can be a fickle lot. When one brand falls out of favor the drop off in sales can be earth shaking for the manufacturer. One company that appears to be seeing some trouble is DECK.

According to the company's marketing material, "Deckers Brands is a global leader in designing, marketing and distributing innovative footwear, apparel and accessories developed for both everyday casual lifestyle use and high performance activities. The company's portfolio of brands includes UGG®, I HEART UGG®, Teva®, Sanuk®, Ahnu® and HOKA ONE ONE®. Deckers Brands products are sold in more than 50 countries and territories through select department and specialty stores, 138 Company-owned and operated retail stores, and select online stores, including Company-owned websites. Deckers Brands has a 40-year history of building niche footwear brands into lifestyle market leaders attracting millions of loyal consumers globally."

DECK started seeing trouble last year. Back in July they reported earnings that beat expectations but management lowered guidance. They did it again in October with DECK delivering results above estimates but lowering guidance. Their most recent report was January 29th where DECK delivered their December quarter. Earnings were up +11% from a year ago to $4.50 a share. That actually missed Wall Street's estimate. Revenues rose +6.6% to $784.7 million. This too missed analysts' expectations of $812.5 million.

If that wasn't bad enough the company lowered their Q4 and 2015 guidance. They downgraded their 2015 revenue growth from +15% down to +13.5% largely due to slowing sales of their UGG brand. That's definitely a warning signal since UGG accounts for more than 80% of DECK's sales.

The stock crashed -19.5% the next day on its disappointing earnings results and lowered guidance. The following two weeks saw an oversold bounce but that bounce is over. Shares are starting to breakdown again. A Morgan Stanley analysts was not enthusiastic on DECK and said they don't see any catalyst between now and the next holiday shopping season to drive the stock higher.

DECK was definitely showing relative weakness today and broke below short-term support near $72.50. Tonight I'm suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $71.65.

- Suggested Positions -

Long APR $70 PUT (DECK150417P70) entry $2.40

03/16/15 new stop @ 73.05
03/10/15 triggered on gap down at $71.46
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Michael Kors - KORS - close: 66.36 change: +1.55

Stop Loss: 66.35
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +2.4%
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million
Entry on February 26 at $67.90
Listed on February 25, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/18/15: Positive comments from Bank of America about KORS' valuation helped shares bounce toward the $65.50 area today. Then shares surged past resistance near $66.00 with the market's post-FOMC meeting rally. Our stop loss was hit at $66.35.

- Suggested Positions -

May $65 PUT (KORS150515P65) entry $2.10 exit $2.15 (+2.4%)

03/18/15 stopped out
03/16/15 new stop @ 66.35
02/26/15 triggered @ $67.90
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: