Editor's Note:

The U.S. market managed a rebound on Friday after relatively widespread declines most of the week. Beaten down biotechs helped lead the bounce. Meanwhile AAPL shares snapped a three-day sell-off.

OA hit our stop loss. We have removed BBBY as a candidate.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Apogee Enterprises - APOG - close: 54.42 change: +1.80

Stop Loss: 51.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -3.6%
Average Daily Volume = 223 thousand
Entry on April 27 at $53.85
Listed on April 25, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in June
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: Shares of APOG surged on Friday. The market's widespread rally gave APOG room to run and shares sprinted higher with a +3.4% gain. The stock is poised for a breakout past resistance near $55.00 soon.

I would wait for a rally past $55.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Trade Description: April 25, 2015:
The U.S. economy has been limping along with slow growth. During the first quarter earnings season we have heard how the strong dollar has hurt big cap companies' sales and margins. That's one reason why money has been flowing into small cap, domestic companies, which are less impacted by the dollar. Investors are always looking for strong growth as well.

APOG fits the bill. The company is in the industrial goods sector. They are part of the building materials industry. According to the company, "Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (www.apog.com), headquartered in Minneapolis, is a leader in technologies involving the design and development of value-added glass products, services and systems for the architectural and picture framing industries."

Looking at the last four quarters (fiscal year 2015) bottom line results have been mixed. Yet revenues have been consistently showing double-digit growth. Q1 revenues were up +17.6%. Q2 revenues were +30%. Q3 revenues rose +22.6%. The company's most recent earnings report was April 8th. APOG delivered 2015 Q4 results of $0.47 a share, which was +74% higher than a year ago and above analysts' estimates. Q4 revenues were up +15% and above expectations. Margins improved 240 basis points to 8%.

The company said their architectural glass segment's revenues rose +22%. Architectural service revenues were flat. Architectural framing systems rose +22%. Large-scale optical technologies segment reported revenues up +18% last quarter. APOG ended the fourth quarter with a backlog of $491 million, up +49% from a year ago. Their fiscal 2015 results saw revenues up +21% and adjusted EPS up +58%.

Joseph Puishys, APOG's CEO, commented on their results, saying,

"Apogee's growth engine continued in the fourth quarter as we again grew revenues in the double digits and income more than 50 percent. Performance across the company was strong, with double-digit earnings and revenue growth in three of four segments... We built our backlog significantly during the year, giving us momentum moving into fiscal 2016. We expect fiscal 2016 will continue our trend of double-digit top-line growth and very strong bottom-line growth."
APOG provided relatively optimistic guidance for fiscal year 2016. They see revenues rising +10% to +15% and expect to see sales cross the $1 billion mark soon.

The stock shot higher following its Q4 report in April. The last couple of weeks have seen shares consolidate a bit but traders have started to buy the pullback. We think the rally continues. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $53.85. We'll try and limit our risk with an initial stop loss at $51.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $55 CALL (APOG150821C55) entry $2.75

04/27/15 triggered @ 53.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


The Greenbrier Cos. - GBX - close: 62.33 change: +4.64

Stop Loss: 54.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +50.0%
Average Daily Volume = 683 thousand
Entry on May 01 at $59.05
Listed on April 30, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to June option expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: Our new play on GBX is off to a strong start. The stock gapped open higher at $58.50 and then raced to a +8.0% gain, slicing through resistance levels. Our trigger to buy calls was hit early on Friday at $59.05.

The big move appears to be a reaction to the Department of Transportation finally releasing the new rules on transportation of flammable liquids by rail. You can read the DOT's release on their webpage (here).

The biggest impact for GBX appears to be the new standards on tank cars. Here's an excerpt:

Enhanced Standards for New and Existing Tank Cars for use in an HHFT—New tank cars constructed after October 1, 2015, are required to meet the new DOT Specification 117 design or performance criteria. The prescribed car has a 9/16 inch tank shell, 11 gauge jacket, 1/2 inch full-height head shield, thermal protection, and improved pressure relief valves and bottom outlet valves. Existing tank cars must be retrofitted with the same key components based on a prescriptive, risk-based retrofit schedule (see table). As a result of the aggressive, risk-based approach, the final rule will require replacing the entire fleet of DOT-111 tank cars for Packing Group I, which covers most crude shipped by rail, within three years and all non-jacketed CPC-1232s, in the same service, within approximately five years.

GBX responded to the government's new rules with their own statement here. Here's an except:

Greenbrier asserts that a rapid replacement and retrofit phase-out timeline is completely feasible. A report prepared for Greenbrier by Cambridge Systematics (the 'Cambridge report') indicates retrofit capacity will range from at least 8,400 to 19,600 cars per year in steady state, and that the unjacketed DOT-111s and unjacketed CPC-1232s in crude oil service could be retrofitted in 3.7 years, while similar cars in ethanol service could be retrofitted in an additional 2.3 years.

In addition to examining tank car retrofit capacity, the Cambridge report goes on to note that in 2015 manufacturing capacity for new tank cars is at an all-time high of over 40,000 units. With manufacturing capacity at these levels, the Cambridge report observes that the entire tank car fleet that is currently operating without advanced safety features could be replaced in less than five years with new cars that meet current standards for safety.

The U.S. and Canadian government's decision to boost safety standards on tanker cars is going to be a big tailwind for GBX's business for the next few years.

Trade Description: April 30, 2015:
Currently shares of GBX are up +7.3% in 2015. That's after a -$10.00 drop from its April highs. I'm surprised shares aren't doing better as the earnings picture continues to improve. The recent pullback looks like an opportunity for bullish investors.

GBX is in the services sector. They manufacture and service railroad cars. According to the company, "Greenbrier, (www.gbrx.com), headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon, is a leading supplier of transportation equipment and services to the railroad industry. Greenbrier builds new railroad freight cars in our 4 manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and Mexico and marine barges at our U.S. manufacturing facility. Greenbrier also sells reconditioned wheel sets and provides wheel services at 9 locations throughout the U.S. We recondition, manufacture and sell railcar parts at 4 U.S. sites. Greenbrier is a 50/50 joint venture partner with Watco Companies, LLC in GBW Railcar Services, LLC, which repairs and refurbishes freight cars at 34 locations across North America, including 14 tank car repair and maintenance facilities certified by the Association of American Railroads. Greenbrier builds new railroad freight cars and refurbishes freight cars for the European market through our operations in Poland. Greenbrier owns approximately 8,300 railcars, and performs management services for approximately 241,000 railcars."

Looking at the last few quarterly reports from GBX the company tends to beat Wall Street's earnings estimates. Their Q4 2014 report, last October, was an exception. Yet GBX has still raised their guidance the last four earnings reports in a row. Their backlog of business is booming!

GBX's most recent report was April 7th. The company delivered their 2015 Q2 results with a profit of $1.57 per share. That was 37 cents better than analysts expected. Revenues were up +27% to $630 million, also above estimates. GBX said their aggregate gross margin improved from 17.8% to 19.9%. Their new railcar deliveries improved from 4,000 units in the prior quarter to 5,200 units. Their new railcar backlog is up to 46,000 units, valued at $4.78 billion.

GBX's Chairman and CEO William Furman commented on his company's results, "Our record results this quarter, including margin expansion and earnings growth, reflect the soundness of our diversified and integrated business model, improved business execution and greater scale. Our aggregate gross margin in the second quarter grew to 19.9%, nearly twice last year's level; at the same time we continue to execute on ramping up production on new manufacturing lines."

Furman also commented on their order growth, saying, "Our diverse new railcar backlog of 46,000 units represents the sixth consecutive quarter where the quantity and value of our backlog has increased. It is now more than triple the size of just one year ago, with production on certain production lines stretching into 2019. Nearly 80% of our year-to-date orders for 24,200 railcars are non-energy related, including orders for double stack intermodal cars, grain hopper cars, automotive carrying cars, non-energy related tank cars, boxcars, and mill gondola cars for scrap steel. These orders, along with others in our backlog, include multi-year orders for various car types, a positive indication that our customers believe, as do we, that end-user demand for new railcars will remain solid for the foreseeable future. The regulatory picture for tank cars transporting hazardous materials should be clarified no later than May. We expect Greenbrier's Tank Car of the Future will be the new standard, and that additional new car and retrofit orders will occur regardless of oil prices."

Furman pointed out that most of their new orders are for non-energy related cars. That's because the energy (i.e. oil production) business in the U.S. has been depressed given last year's slide in crude oil. Energy companies have been cutting back on spending. On the plus side, when the energy sector rebounds, it will be a bonus for GBX. The U.S. government is working on new requirements for oil-tanker railcars. When the government regulations on oil-tanker safety is finalized GBX will see a surge in orders for new tanker cars over the next few years.

GBX managed raised their guidance again. They now expected 2015 earnings in the $5.65-5.95 range versus Wall Street's estimate around $5.42. GBX also raised their sales guidance into the $2.6-2.7 billion zone versus analysts' estimates of $2.62 billion.

We don't see any catalyst for the recent pullback in GBX shares. It looks like a correction toward the stock's bullish trend of higher lows. If shares bounce it could fuel some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 33% of the small 22.3 million share float.

I will issue one caveat. The broader Dow Jones Transportation Average looks weak. While the story on GBX is bullish that doesn't mean shares will be able to resist a broader sell-off among the transport stocks. Traders may want to start with small positions considering the recent weakness in the transportation average.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls on GBX at $59.05. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout past the simple 200-dma (near $60.00) as an alternative entry point.

- Suggested Positions -

Long JUN $60 CALL (GBX150619C60) entry $2.90

05/01/15 triggered @ 59.05
05/01/15 U.S. DOT announces new rules on railroad tanker cars
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Global Payments Inc. - GPN - close: 101.07 change: +0.79

Stop Loss: 98.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.8%
Average Daily Volume = 589 thousand
Entry on April 21 at $101.05
Listed on April 18, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: GPN continued to churn sideways inside the $100-102 range on Friday. If shares don't breakout of this range soon we may want to exit early. I am suggesting traders wait for a rally past $102.50 before considering new positions.

Trade Description: April 18, 2015:
GPN is in the services sector. They provide money transfers and electronic payment solutions.

According to the company website, "Global Payments Inc. (GPN) is a leading worldwide provider of payment technology services that delivers innovative solutions driven by customer needs globally. Our partnerships, technologies and employee expertise enable us to provide a broad range of products and services that allow our customers to accept all payment types across a variety of distribution channels in many markets around the world. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia with more than 4,300 employees worldwide, Global Payments is a Fortune 1000 Company with merchants and partners in 29 countries throughout North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region and Brazil."

The company has been consistently delivering strong earnings growth. GPN has beaten Wall Street's expectations and guided higher the last three quarters in a row. Their most recent report was April 8th when GPN delivered their 2015 Q3 results. Earnings were up +18.7% to $1.14 a share. Revenues were up +8% to $665 million. Growth was driven by strong performances in the U.S. and their Asia-Pacific operations.

Management raised their forecast again. They see 2015 earnings in the $4.77-4.84 range, which would be +8% to +10% growth. They're forecasting 2015 revenues in the $2.75-2.80 billion range or +16% to +18% growth.

GPN management is also shareholder friendly and has been significantly boosting their stock buy back program. They recently announced an accelerated share repurchase program up to $100 million.

The stock has rallied on the strong earnings results and buyback news. Today GPN is hovering near all-time highs around psychological resistance at the $100 level. It was impressive that GPN did not participate in the market's widespread sell-off on Friday. We want to be ready to hop on board if GPN can rally past resistance at $100.

Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $101.05.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $105 CALL (GPN150821C105) entry $2.85

04/21/15 triggered @ 101.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Schlumberger Ltd. - SLB - close: 93.00 change: -1.61

Stop Loss: 91.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 8.75 million
Entry on April -- at $---.--
Listed on April 29, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/02/15: SLB did not participate in the market's big rally on Friday. Shares underperformed with a -1.7% plunge back toward short-term support at its rising 10-dma. I don't see any specific news behind the move. The OIH oil services ETF was virtually unchanged on the session. Meanwhile the broader XLE energy ETF posted a minor gain on Friday. This appears to be an SLB-specific weakness. If this weakness continues we might drop this stock as a candidate. Currently we are on the sidelines with a suggested entry point to buy calls at $95.25.

Trade Description: April 29, 2015:
It is finally time to buy energy stocks? It's starting to look that way. Crude oil prices were crushed with a -60% drop from June 2014 to January 2015. This has done significant damage to the oil industry in the U.S. and around the world. Companies have been trying to slash costs and shut down rigs. Yet crude oil production, especially in the U.S., has continued to climb.

U.S. oil inventories just rose for a record-breaking 16 weeks in a row. The good news is that the +1.9 million barrel build in inventory was less than expected. Inventories are at record highs and significantly above the five-year average. At the same time the number of active rigs has been plummeting.

Active rigs have dropped for a record 20 weeks in a row. The current total of active oil and gas rigs in the U.S. is 932. This is the lowest level since 2010. The number of active rigs peaked at 1,609 in October 2014 and this has been the fastest decline in history. We're quickly approaching the 2009 low of 866 active rigs.

Why do I bring up oil inventories and active rigs in the U.S.? Because eventually the trend on these two numbers will reverse. Sooner or later the oil inventory build will end and the number of active rigs will bottom. If trading in the oil service stocks is any indication then the market is banking on sooner instead of later.

The price of crude oil has already seen a +25% bounce off its March lows. We're starting to hear speculation that the action in crude over the last three months might be a bottom. There is also growing speculation that the decline in active rigs will reach a bottom in Q2 2015.

The stock market is always looking forward. It appears investors are looking past the current tough spot for oil producers and oil service companies. SLB is the world's largest oilfield services company.

According to the company, "Schlumberger is the world's leading supplier of technology, integrated project management and information solutions to customers working in the oil and gas industry worldwide. Employing approximately 115,000 people representing over 140 nationalities and working in more than 85 countries, Schlumberger provides the industry's widest range of products and services from exploration through production. Schlumberger Limited has principal offices in Paris, Houston, London and The Hague, and reported revenues of $48.58 billion in 2014."

There was a lot of focus on SLB's most recent earnings report. SLB delivered its Q1 results on April 16th. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $0.91 a share on revenues of $10.35 billion. SLB delivered $1.06 a share with revenues down -8.8% to $10.25 billion. The difference from Q4 to Q1 is dramatic. SLB saw a -19% drop in revenues from Q4 and a -29% drop in earnings.

SLB's Chairman and CEO Paal Kibsgaard commented on his company's Q1 results, "Schlumberger first-quarter revenue decreased 19% sequentially driven by the severe decline in North American land activity and associated pricing pressure. International operations were impacted by reduced customer spend in addition to seasonal effects in the Northern Hemisphere and the fall in value of the Russian ruble and the Venezuelan bolivar. Three-quarters of the overall sequential decline was due to lower activity and pricing, while the remainder was the result of currency effects and non-recurring year-end sales."

Kibsgaard continued, saying, "Despite the severity of the sequential revenue decline, we have been able to minimize its impact on our margins through prompt and proactive cost management as well as through acceleration of our transformation program across product lines and GeoMarkets. These actions have successfully improved financial performance compared to previous industry cycles... In spite of the detailed preparations we made in the fourth quarter, the abruptness of the fall in activity, particularly in North America, required us to take additional actions during the quarter. These included the difficult decision to make a further reduction in our workforce of 11,000 employees, leading to a total reduction of about 15% compared to the peak of the third quarter of 2014."

Kibsgaard provided his outlook on their business, "In this environment, we remain confident in our ability to grow market share, deliver superior performance in earnings per share compared to industry peers, and reduce working capital and capex intensity. Our favorable international leverage, our technological differentiation in North America, the acceleration of our transformation program and our unmatched execution capabilities continue to provide the foundations for our financial and technical outperformance."

Wall Street analysts were very optimistic on SLB. They applauded the company's fast response to cutting cost and reducing their workforce so quickly to changing market conditions. Analysts believe that SLB will be able to maintain strong margins compared to their peer group and that earnings will likely come in better than most expect. Analysts have also commented on how SLB is essentially the best in class for this industry and will take market share from weaker competitors. Several firms upgraded their price targets on SLB following the Q1 report and the new targets are: $100, $105, $107, and $110. The point & figure chart is more optimistic and is currently forecasting a rally to $122.00.

Shares of SLB spiked higher following its Q1 report but the rally failed at its simple 200-dma. Since then the stock has been consolidating sideways and building up steam for a bullish breakout higher. It looks like that breakout has started with today's display of relative strength (+1.7%) and a close above technical resistance at its 200-dma. The intraday high on April 17th was $94.89. We are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $95.25.

Trigger @ $95.25

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the AUG $100 CALL (SLB150821C100)

Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.

Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Splunk, Inc. - SPLK - close: 66.71 change: +0.37

Stop Loss: 63.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +1.3%
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
Entry on April 23 at $66.25
Listed on April 22, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: Hmm... SPLK added +0.5% on Friday. The NASDAQ added +1.29%. The relative weakness might be a warning signal. Shares of SPLK appear to be consolidating sideways in a pattern of lower highs and higher lows.

I'm not suggesting new positions at the moment.

Trade Description: April 22, 2015:
Big data and cyber security are buzzwords in the information technology industry. One firm appears to have found its niche providing solutions for both of them.

SPLK is in the technology sector. They are considered part of the application software industry. According to the company, "Splunk Inc. (SPLK) provides the leading software platform for real-time Operational Intelligence. Splunk® software and cloud services enable organizations to search, monitor, analyze and visualize machine-generated big data coming from websites, applications, servers, networks, sensors and mobile devices. More than 9,000 enterprises, government agencies, universities and service providers in more than 100 countries use Splunk software to deepen business and customer understanding, mitigate cybersecurity risk, prevent fraud, improve service performance and reduce cost. Splunk products include Splunk® Enterprise, Splunk Cloud™, Hunk®, Splunk Light™, Splunk MINT and premium Splunk Apps."

The company is seeing significant earnings momentum. Their FY2015 Q2 report in August beat analysts' estimates on both the top and bottom line. Revenues were up +51.7% from the year ago period. Management raised their guidance. They did it again with their Q3 results in November with a beat on both the top and bottom line with revenues rising +47.6% and SPLK raised their guidance.

The company's most recent report was February 26th, 2015. SPLK delivered their fiscal year 2015 Q4 results. Analysts were looking for earnings of $0.04 a share on revenues of $136.98 million. SPLK delivered $0.09 a share. Revenues soared +47.5% to $147.4 million. For the whole year (FY2015) SPLK's revenues were up +49%.

SPLK CEO and Chairman, Godfrey Sullivan, commented on their performance, saying, "We are proud to welcome more than 600 new customers to the Splunk family, which now includes over 9,000 customers around the world. We finished FY15 with strong performance across the board and posted our best quarter yet for both Splunk Cloud and the Splunk App for Enterprise Security. Our investments in cloud and solutions are helping to drive global customer adoption."

SPLK management raised guidance again for FY2016 Q1 and for the full year. They now forecast revenues above Wall Street estimates. SPLK expects 2016 sales to hit $600 million, which is a +33% improvement from 2015.

Wall Street is very bullish on the stock. Shares have seen a parade of upgrades and raised price targets. Here's a brief list of price targets: Deutsche Bank $80, JMP Securities $81, Citigroup $81, Wedbush $82, Morgan Stanley $84, Credit Suisse $85, Canaccord $86, and FBR Capital with a $90 price target on SPLK shares. The point & figure chart is only forecasting at $76 target but it could grow.

Technically SPLK has been consolidating sideways in the $60-65 zone the last couple of weeks. Today shares displayed relative strength with a +2.6% gain and a breakout past resistance near $65.00. I'm suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $66.25. The levels to watch are potential overhead resistance at $70 and $75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $70 CALL (SPLK150821C70) entry $4.54

04/30/15 new stop @ 63.85
04/23/15 triggered @ 66.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:




PUT Play Updates

Big Lots Inc. - BIG - close: 46.13 change: +0.56

Stop Loss: 46.55
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -13.2%
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Entry on April 14 at $46.85
Listed on April 13, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to May option expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: Broken support at $46.00 should have been new resistance for BIG. I blame the widespread rally on Friday for the stock's ability to close above this level. The intraday high was $46.53. That was only two cents away from our stop loss at $46.55. If this bounce continues on Monday we'll be stopped out.

Trade Description: April 13, 2015:
Momentum for this retail name is clearly rolling over. According to the company's latest press release, "Big Lots Inc. (BIG) is a unique, non-traditional discount retailer operating 1,460 Big Lots stores in 48 states with product assortments in the merchandise categories of Food, Consumables, Furniture & Home Decor, Seasonal, Soft Home, Hard Home, and Electronics & Accessories. Our vision is to be recognized for providing an outstanding shopping experience for our customers, valuing and developing our associates, and creating growth for our shareholders."

The company's earnings results have been mixed. The huge sell-off on December 5th was a reaction to its Q3 earnings. BIG lost $0.06 per share, which was worse than expected and revenues were essentially flat. The fourth quarter was significantly better with BIG delivering a profit of $1.76 per share compared to estimates of $1.75. Revenues were up +1.4% and were in-line with estimates of $1.59 billion. Comparable store sales were up to +2.9% in the fourth quarter.

Unfortunately, management guided lower for Q1 and the rest of their fiscal 2016. Their forecast of $2.75-2.90 in earnings is below Wall Street's $2.96 estimate. Comparable store sales are going to be in the low single digits. The company tried to soften the bad news by raising their dividend and adding to their stock buyback program.

The post-earnings rally didn't last. Shares of BIG have rolled over and now the path of least resistance is lower. The $46.00 level, along with the simple 200-dma, is potential support but we are expecting this weakness in BIG to accelerate. Tonight we are listing a trigger to buy puts at $46.85 with an initial stop loss at $50.05.

- Suggested Positions -

Long MAY $47.50 PUT (BIG150515P4750) entry $1.90

04/29/15 new stop @ 46.55
04/28/15 new stop @ 48.05
04/23/15 new stop @ 49.05
04/14/15 triggered @ $46.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


PVH Corp. - PVH - close: 103.89 change: +0.54

Stop Loss: 105.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -20.6%
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Entry on April 29 at $102.65
Listed on April 28, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to June option expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: PVH was not immune to the market's rally on Friday but shares only rose +0.5% versus the S&P 500's +1.0% gain. The $105.00 level should be short-term resistance. Nimble traders could watch for a failed rally near $105 as a potential entry point. Otherwise readers may want to wait for a new low under $102.00 as our next entry point.

Trade Description: April 28, 2015:
Investors have been relatively forgiving when it comes to corporations blaming the strong dollar on poor results. They were not so forgiving with PVH after the company significantly reduced their guidance.

PVH is in the consumer goods sector. According to the company, "PVH Corp., one of the world's largest apparel companies, owns and markets the iconic Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands worldwide. It is the world's largest shirt and neckwear company and markets a variety of goods under its own brands, Van Heusen, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, IZOD, ARROW, Warner's and Olga, and its licensed brands, including Speedo, Geoffrey Beene, Kenneth Cole New York, Kenneth Cole Reaction, MICHAEL Michael Kors, Sean John, Chaps, Donald J. Trump Signature Collection, DKNY, Ike Behar and John Varvatos."

PVH's earnings history has been mixed. They have managed to beat estimates the last four quarters in a row. Yet in three out of the last four quarters they have guided lower.

Their most recent report was March 25th. Analysts were expecting Q4 results of $1.73 a share on revenues of $2.1 billion. PVH delivered $1.76 but revenues were only up +0.8% to $2.07 billion. If you back out the currency headwinds then revenues would have been about +5%.

Management said it has been a highly challenging market environment and noted the strong dollar was a significant headwind. The company lowered their guidance on both the Q1 2016 and for their fiscal year 2016. PVH expects Q1 earnings in the $1.35-1.40 range versus Wall Street's consensus at $1.52. For the whole year PVH is forecasting $6.75-6.90 in earnings per share compared to analysts' estimates at $7.38.

The stock's oversold bounce from its March lows has failed at resistance. We just saw the most recent oversold bounce, on April 23rd, quickly fail at short-term resistance. Longer-term shares appear to have topped out as well. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $102.65. More conservative traders may want to wait for a decline below $102.00 as an alternative entry point to buy puts.

- Suggested Positions -

Long JUN $100 PUT (PVH150619P100) entry $3.40

04/29/15 triggered @ 102.65
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. - BBBY - close: 71.41 change: +0.95

Stop Loss: 72.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Entry on April -- at $---.--
Listed on April 27, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to June option expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: BBBY is not cooperating. Shares held support near $70.00 last week and have started to bounce. It's possible this rebound fails at short-term resistance near $71.00. We are choosing to remove BBBY as our play has not opened yet. You may want to keep it on your radar screen for a breakdown below support at $70.00 as a bearish entry point.

Trade did not open.

05/02/15 removed from the newsletter, suggested entry was $69.75

chart:


Orbital ATK, Inc. - OA - close: 74.10 change: +0.94

Stop Loss: 74.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -34.4%
Average Daily Volume = n/a
Entry on April 16 at $74.25
Listed on April 15, 2015
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks, exit PRIOR to earnings in mid May
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/02/15: Our bearish play on OA is a victim of the market's big rally on Friday. Shares managed to rise past resistance near $74.00 on Friday afternoon and hit our stop at $74.45.

- Suggested Positions -

MAY $75 PUT (OA150515P75) entry $3.20 exit $2.10 (-34.4%)

05/01/15 stopped out
04/29/15 new stop @ 74.45
04/27/15 new stop @ 75.25
04/16/15 triggered @ 74.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: