Editor's Note:

The U.S. market closed relatively flat on Thursday ahead of the long holiday weekend and the Greek referendum (on July 5th). Everyone is waiting to see what the Greek people will choose and the fallout that follows.

Not everything flatlined on Thursday. AET, SIRO, and ETR all hit our stop losses.


Current Portfolio:


CALL Play Updates

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store - CBRL - close: 150.89 change: -0.68

Stop Loss: 144.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -5.0%
Average Daily Volume = 332 thousand
Entry on July 01 at $150.25
Listed on June 20, 2015
Time Frame: Plan on exiting prior to August 5th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: CBRL flirted with three-month highs on Thursday. Shares eventually settled with a -0.4% decline. Broken resistance in the $149-150 zone should be new support. Traders can wait for a dip or wait for a bounce in this area as a new entry point to buy calls.

Trade Description: June 20, 2015:
It's summertime and that means vacations and road trips for a lot of Americans. That's good news for a company like CBRL because most of their 634 restaurants are located along major highways.

CBRL is in the services sector. According to the company, "Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. provides a friendly home-away-from-home in its old country stores and restaurants. Guests are cared for like family while relaxing and enjoying real home-style food and shopping that’s surprisingly unique, genuinely fun and reminiscent of America's country heritage…all at a fair price. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) was established in 1969 in Lebanon, Tenn. and operates 634 company-owned locations in 42 states."

Wall Street loves earnings growth and CBRL continues to deliver. Back in February the company beat earnings and revenue estimates and raised their 2015 guidance. Their most recent report was June 2nd. CBRL reported their fiscal third quarter. Analysts were expecting a profit of $1.37 per share on revenues of $680 million. CBRL beat estimates with a profit of $1.49 per share. This is a +21% rise from a year ago and marks the fifth quarter in a row of double-digit earnings growth. Revenues also beat estimates with a +6.3% rise to $683.7 million. CBRL said their comparable store sales were up +5.2%. Their comparable retail store sales were up +4.5%.

Management raised their normal quarterly dividend +10% to $1.10. They also announced a special one-time dividend of $3.00 per share. Both are payable on August 5th, 2015 to shareholders on record as of July 17th. CBRL offered a bullish outlook for both their fourth quarter and 2015. Management raised their 2015 earnings guidance from $6.40-6.50 to $6.60-6.70 per share. Wall Street was only expecting $6.55.

Technically the stock looks bullish. Shares have been consolidating their post-earnings gains the last couple of weeks but traders are buying the dip. Today CBRL is poised for a breakout past short-term resistance near $148.50. If the stock does breakout it could see some short covering. The latest data listed short interest at 17% of its small 18.9 million share float. Meanwhile the point & figure chart is very bullish and forecasting a long-term target at $231.00.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $150.25. More aggressive traders may want to jump in early on a rally past $148.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SEP $155 CALL (CBRL150918C155) entry $4.00

07/01/15 triggered @ $150.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


The Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 114.97 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 112.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +32.6%
Average Daily Volume = 5.7 million
Entry on June 18 at $112.25
Listed on June 17, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in August
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: DIS briefly hit a new record high on Thursday morning. The stock settled near unchanged. Shares still look poised to break higher. Looking at the intraday chart, I'd prefer to see another rally past $115.35 before initiating new bullish positions.

Trade Description: June 17, 2015:
Disney is an American icon. The company is over 90 years old. They have grown into a massive content generating giant. Today DIS runs five business segments. Their media networks include broadcast, cable, radio, publishing, and digital businesses headlined by their Disney/ABC television group and ESPN Inc. DIS' parks and resort business includes Disneyland, Disneyworld, plus theme parks in Tokyo, Paris, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and a cruise line.

The company's products division licenses the company's horde of names, characters, and intellectual property to a wide range of products. They've also jumped into the online world with their Disney Interactive division. Last but not least is the Walt Disney Studios segment. Disney started making movies 90 years ago. Today their studio business includes Disney animation, Pixar Animation, Disneynature, Disney Studios Motion Pictures, Disney music group, Touchstone Pictures, and Marvel Studios.

Their movie business has been a money maker over the years with huge hits like the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, Tangled, Wreck-it Ralph. In 2013 they released the animated film "Frozen", which has turned into the largest grossing animated movie of all time. Pixar has a stable of successful movies that have grossed almost $9 billion. DIS is also mining gold in Marvel Entertainment's library of over 8,000 characters of comic book history. Marvel had two big hits in 2014 Captain America: Winter Soldier and Guardians of the Galaxy. Their 2015 Avengers: Age of Ultron was also a big winner at the box office grossing more than $1.3 billion worldwide. Of course not every Disney movie crushes it. Their recent Tomorrowland was a big disappointment and they could lose more than $100 million on the film.

Back in 2012 Disney purchased Lucasfilm and all the Star Wars properties from George Lucas for $4 billion. The company is busy filming the next three episodes of the Star Wars franchise. The next Star Wars film it titled "The Force Awakens." It will be episode seven in the franchise. The movie doesn't hit theaters until December 2015 but analysts are already predicting that "The Force Awakens" will generate $1.2 billion at the global box office.

DIS management loves movie franchises because they can fuel years of sequels, park rides, and merchandise. The approach seems to be working. Revenues and net income have hit all-time highs for five consecutive quarters. Their 2015 Q1 results saw earnings per share up +23% to $1.27. Their Q2 results saw earnings grow +14% to $1.23 per share. Their domestic theme parks showed a strong surge in both attendance and in customer spending. Analysts are forecasting DIS earnings to grow +17% this year.

The stock surged to new all-time highs back in early May after its Q2 earnings report. Shares have since spent the last six weeks digesting gains in a sideways consolidation that has ignored much of the broader market's volatility. More recently DIS has started to rebound and is now at the top of its trading range. A breakout here could signal the next leg higher.

The point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting at long-term target of $154.00. I personally suspect that DIS could rally toward $120-125 before its next earnings report in August. Credit Suisse recently upped their price target to $130. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger at $112.25 to buy calls.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $115 CALL (DIS150821C115) entry $2.30

06/27/15 new stop @ 112.25
06/18/15 triggered @ $112.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Demandware, Inc. - DWRE - close: 71.15 change: +0.45

Stop Loss: 67.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -20.5%
Average Daily Volume = 417 thousand
Entry on June 22 at $72.35
Listed on June 20, 2015
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks, exit prior to earnings in August
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: Thursday's session was a very quiet one for DWRE. Shares briefly traded below $70.00 in the morning but quickly recovered. DWRE spent the rest of the day in a tight range.

The $73.50 level remains overhead resistance.

No new positions at this time.

Trade Description: June 20, 2015:
2015 is shaping up to be a lot better than 2014 for DWRE investors. The stock delivered a rocky performance last year and spent much of it churning sideways in a huge consolidation pattern (see the weekly chart below). The stock's momentum has turned bullish this year thanks in part to consistently strong revenue growth. The NASDAQ is up +8.0% year to date. DWRE is currently up +23.9%.

DWRE is in the technology sector. According to the company, "Demandware, the category defining leader of enterprise cloud commerce solutions, empowers the world's leading retailers to continuously innovate in our complex, consumer-driven world. Demandware's open cloud platform provides unique benefits including seamless innovation, the LINK ecosystem of integrated best-of-breed partners, and community insight to optimize customer experiences. These advantages enable Demandware customers to lead their markets and grow faster."

With the exception of its Q4 report on February 19th DWRE has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimates on both the top and bottom line the last four quarters in a row. Revenue growth has been +55.6%, +55.9%, +43.4%, and +54.3% for the last four quarters. The only miss was DWRE's bottom line number for the fourth quarter where it missed by a penny.

DWRE's most recent results were May 7th. The company said their Q2 profit was $0.16 per share. That is a big improvement from a ($0.05) loss a year ago and it was 27 cents better than the ($0.11) loss analysts were expecting. Revenues were $50.27 million compared to estimates for $49.5 million. DWRE said their live customers were up +30% from a year ago to 279. The number of live sites surged 42% to 1,241.

Tim Adams, DWRE's CFO, commented on their quarterly results, "During the first quarter, we continued to invest in growth and innovation. We expanded our operations deeper into Europe and Asia. Our R&D team also made considerable progress on their key initiatives – extending our platform deeper into the store, delivering our intelligence solutions and enriching our core commerce capabilities. As we move through 2015, we remain focused on scaling our organization to support the fast pace of our growth."

Back in April Goldman Sachs added DWRE to their conviction buy list. Yet shares didn't start moving until June. A couple of weeks ago shares broke out from a three-month consolidation pattern. The current rally could be getting a boost from short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 12% of the relatively small 33.48 million share float. Currently the point & figure chart is bullish and forecasting an $85 target. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $72.35.

- Suggested Positions -

Long OCT $75 CALL (DWRE151016C75) entry $5.28

06/22/15 triggered @ $72.35
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Cyber Security ETF - HACK - close: 31.21 change: -0.31

Stop Loss: 29.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -44.4%
Average Daily Volume = 769 thousand
Entry on June 30 at $31.55
Listed on June 29, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to August expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: HACK underperformed the broader market on Thursday with a -0.98% decline. Shares dipped back toward support near $31.00, its 50-dma, and its five-month trend line of higher lows (see chart).

I am suggesting readers wait for a new bounce past $31.60 before initiating new positions. More conservative traders might want to raise their stop loss.

Trade Description: June 29, 2015:
Cyber security is a huge business because the threat is so large. Criminals and unfriendly foreign countries can wreak havoc and damage anyone. Victims include individuals, small businesses, large businesses, schools, organizations, and governments. The FBI Internet Crimes Complaint Center registered almost 270,000 complaints in 2014. McAfee reported that cyber crime cost the global economy $400 billion last year. Another report, by KPMG, suggests damages by online criminal activity could reach $560 billion in 2015.

We constantly hear about successful hacking attacks against large U.S. companies like Target, Home Depot, and JPMorgan Chase. Just recently there was a massive scandal where Chinese hackers allegedly stole extremely confidential information on tens of millions of U.S. government employees. Cyber crime is a constant threat. It's no surprise that investors have flocked to a relatively new ETF focused on cyber security.

Here's a description of HACK and why it was created:

The World's first Cyber Security ETF, the PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK) was created to provide the market with a transparent vehicle to invest in the increasingly important Cyber Security industry. Anyone that has fallen victim to a cyber attack understands that the fear, consequences and helplessness associated are real. Hundreds of millions of people around the world have suffered from some form of cyber attack. Although a personal cyber attack can seem overwhelming and significant, those that happen on a corporate or government level can be disastrous. In addition to financial losses, cyber attacks have the ability to shut down or manipulate energy infrastructure, weapons defense systems, medical devices, financial markets, transportation networks/vehicles, or harvest highly personal or secret information and a constantly growing amount of other potential threats.

Given the devastating effects cyber attacks can present, it is no coincidence that both corporations and governments around the globe have committed billions of dollars annually in hopes of preventing future attacks. This ongoing digital arms and defense race has vastly grown the size and importance of the Cyber Security industry. This constantly evolving battle will force efforts and capital to focus on this essential space. An increased spending and demand for cyber security solutions may benefit the always morphing Cyber Security Industry.

The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the ISE Cyber Security Index.

HACK currently has 32 components. The top ten stocks are: IL, PFPT, SAIC, IMPV, SPLK, VDSI, FTNT, BLOX, AVG, and PANW. You can see all the components here, scroll to the bottom and select "show all".

This ETF already has more than $1 billion in assets, which is shocking since it just debuted about eight months ago.

The ETF was a strong performer from early May until mid June. Last week shares began to see some profit taking. Today's market-wide sell-off has pushed HACK toward support at its trend line of higher lows (support) and technical support at the 50-dma. After a -8% correction the pullback may be over. We want to be ready if HACK rebounds from here. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $31.55.

Please note this should be considered a higher-risk trade. The option spreads on HACK's options are wide. The spreads have probably been exaggerated today due to the surge in volatility. We are suggesting the August $33 calls. You may want to use a different strike.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $33 CALL (HACK150821C33) entry $0.90

06/30/15 triggered @ $31.55
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


INSYS Therapeutics - INSY - close: 35.50 change: -0.01

Stop Loss: 33.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -55.9%
Average Daily Volume = 607 thousand
Entry on July 01 at $36.30
Listed on June 30, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in August
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: INSY traded in a $1.25 range on Thursday morning but 30 minutes into the session shares had settled into a narrow range. By the closing bell INSY was virtually unchanged on the day. I would prefer to see a rally above $36.40 before initiating new positions again.

Trade Description: June 30, 2015:
INSY is probably best known for its synthetic cannabinoid drugs that use THC, the same ingredient in marijuana. Yet it is the company's Subsys treatment, a painkiller several times stronger than morphine, that generates the most revenues for INSY. The marketing practices behind Subsys have generated some scandal-worthy headlines but nothing seems to be slowing down the stock's long-term rally.

INSY is in the healthcare sector, more specifically the biotech industry. According to the company, "Insys Therapeutics is a specialty pharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes innovative drugs and novel drug delivery systems of therapeutic molecules that improve the quality of life of patients. Using our proprietary sublingual spray technology and our capability to develop pharmaceutical cannabinoids, Insys addresses the clinical shortcomings of existing commercial products. Insys currently markets two products: Subsys, which is sublingual Fentanyl spray for breakthrough cancer pain, and a generic version of Dronabinol (THC) capsules. The Company's lead product candidate is Dronabinol Oral Solution, a proprietary, orally administered liquid formulation of dronabinol that Insys believes has distinct advantages over the current formulation of dronabinol in soft gel capsule. Insys is developing a pipeline of sublingual sprays, as well as pharmaceutical cannabidiol."

The company's earnings growth has been impressive. They have consistently beaten Wall Street's bottom line earnings estimates the last six quarters in a row. They normally beat the revenue estimate as well. Looking at the last three quarters INSY has seen its revenues jump +99.7%, +65.4%, and +70.2%. Most of that has been on strong Subsys sales, which were up +69% in the fourth quarter and up +74% in the first quarter.

INSY management is very optimistic and expects to complete four Phase III clinical trials in 2015. If successful it will significantly broaden their product line. The company just recently announced a New Drug Application (NDA) for its "proprietary Dronabinol Oral Solution for anorexia associated with weight loss in patients with AIDS; and nausea and vomiting associated with cancer chemotherapy in patients who have failed to respond adequately to conventional antiemetic treatments. Dronabinol Oral Solution is an orally administered liquid formulation of the pharmaceutical cannabinoid dronabinol, a synthetic version of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)."

INSY's stock has been a strong performer since the company's IPO in 2013. Shares saw a 3-for-2 split in 2014. They just completed a 2-for-1 split on June 5th.

Before I continue I want to remind traders that biotech stocks can be tough to trade. Normally stocks in this group can be volatile with lots of headline risk. The right headline about a successful test or clinical trial or FDA approval can send shares soaring. The wrong headline could see a biotech stock crash or even gap down several points.

It is important to note that not all the news is good for INSY. In late 2014 the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) ran a story about some shady marketing practices for INSY's Subsys painkiller. This is an under-the-tongue spray version of the painkiller fentanyl. Subsys has a very high risk of dependency and is currently only approved for cancer patients. Yet strangely enough only 1% of prescriptions last year were written by oncologists. Several doctors with the biggest number of Subsys prescriptions have also been under review or disciplined. The WSJ noted that the Office of the Inspector General of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S. Attorneys in the Central District of California and Massachusetts are all looking into the matter. This is significant because Subsys accounts for the vast majority of INSY's revenues.

Thus far the stock market has managed to ignore the shadow cast by Subsys and how the drug is prescribed and INSY's financial relationship with the doctors who prescribe it.

Last week saw biotech stocks retreat. The IBB biotech ETF had broken out in mid June and rallied to new record highs. The group reversed lower last week with a sharp correction. INSY followed its peers lower with a painful drop from $42 to $34 in about three days. Currently the $34.00 level is holding up as support. If INSY can bounce from current levels the move could be big.

A rally from here could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 68% of the small 23.6 million share float. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $36.30.

*Small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $40 CALL (INSY150821C40) entry $3.40

07/01/15 triggered @ $36.30
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Under Armour, Inc. - UA - close: 84.59 change: +0.33

Stop Loss: 81.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -30.4%
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Entry on June 26 at $86.05
Listed on June 23, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to August expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: UA continued to bounce from Monday's sell-off. The stock managed to outperform the major indices with a +0.39% gain on Thursday. I am suggesting readers wait for a rally past $85.00 before considering new positions.

Trade Description: June 23, 2015:
UA is in the consumer goods sector. They make shoes and athletic wear. According to the company, "Under Armour (UA), the originator of performance footwear, apparel and equipment, revolutionized how athletes across the world dress. Designed to make all athletes better, the brand's innovative products are sold worldwide to athletes at all levels. The Under Armour Connected Fitnessplatform powers the world's largest digital health and fitness community through a suite of applications: UA Record, MapMyFitness, Endomondo and MyFitnessPal."

The athletic shoe and athletic apparel business is very competitive. Nike (NKE) has dominated the space for years. UA is about 10% the size of NKE but it is actively fighting for market share and recently overtook Adidas as the second biggest athletic wear brand inside the United States. Nike had sales of $27.8 billion in 2014. UA is a fraction of that with 2014 sales of $3.08 billion but UA grew +32%.

UA has been firing on all cylinders with its earnings results. Most of last year saw the company not only beating Wall Street's estimates but also raising guidance.

UA reported their 2014 Q4 results on February 4th. The company reported a profit of $0.40 a share with revenues climbing +31% to $895 million, which was above estimates for $849 million. UA's CEO Kevin Plank, in a recent interview, said his company will grow at 20%-plus in 2015. The company's current estimates are $3.76 billion in sales for the year.

There was a steady stream of analysts raising their price targets on UA after its February earnings report. Many of these new price targets were in the low $90s ($91-94).

The company's most recent earnings report was April 21st when UA announced Q1 results. After raising guidance back in February the company reported earnings of $0.05 per share, which was in-line with Wall Street's new estimates. Revenues were up +25.4% to $804.9 million, which beat expectations. UA management raised their outlook again. They expect 2015 operating income to improve +13-to-15%. UA expects 2015 revenues to rise +23% to $3.78 billion.

The stock has rallied sharply into its earnings report and shares suffered some post-earnings depression with a -$12.00 drop (-13.6%) in the following two weeks. The price target upgrades continued but UA spent most of May consolidating sideways inside a narrow range. Finally on June 5th shares of UA broke out past multiple layers of resistance on another upgrade. The stock was upgraded to a "buy" with a $91 price target.

UA spent about a week digesting its bullish breakout and then took off. The company recently announced a 2-for-1 stock split. However, instead of a normal split the company is creating a new Class C stock which will have no voting rights.

Why a new class of shares? That's because the company's founder and current CEO Kevin Plank does not want to lose control. This way he can maintain control by keeping his voting shares while still selling the new Class C shares. Just in case you were curious, Class A UA stock has one vote per share. Class B stock has ten votes per share, which Plank owns the majority of.

This stock "split" will be disbursed as a dividend. There's no word yet on the new ticker symbol for the class C shares. There is a special meeting of UA shareholders on August 26, 2015 to approve the necessary changes so they can proceed with this stock split. Google did a similar stock split back in 2014 so the founders could maintain control. Both GOOG's and UA's decision has rankled some shareholders. However, normally stock splits tend to be viewed as a bullish move since stocks don't split if they're not rising. Stocks that split tend to outperform the broader market.

Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $86.05. More conservative traders may want to consider waiting for a dip instead. The nearest support is $82.00. We'll start with a stop loss at $81.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $90 CALL (UA150821C90) entry $2.30

06/26/15 triggered @ $86.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:




PUT Play Updates

iShares Transportation - IYT - close: 145.50 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 150.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +0.0%
Average Daily Volume = 397 thousand
Entry on June 29 at $146.90
Listed on June 27, 2015
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to August expiration
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: Declines in crude oil prices over the last couple of trading days should have been bullish for the transports. Yet the IYT is struggling to bounce. The ETF has been churning sideways in the $144.50-146.50 range the last few days.

Broken support near $148.00 should be new resistance. More conservative traders may want to use that as a guide to adjust their stop loss. Tonight I am suggesting readers hesitate before launching new positions. Let's see what happens on Monday.

Trade Description: June 27, 2015:
The transportation stocks have been a sore spot for the wider bull market. Year to date the Dow Industrials are up +0.7% while the S&P 500 index is up +2.0%. Yet the IYT transportation ETF is down -10% in 2015 and down -12% from its all-time highs set in November 2014.

The IYT is the ETF that tracks the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Both have 20 stocks in them. The biggest components are railroad and trucking companies. Here's the full list of components: FDX, UPS, UNP, KSU, NSC, R, LSTR, JBHT, ALK, CHRW, KEX, UAL, EXPD, CAR, DAL, CNW, MATX, LUV, CSX, and JBLU.

Airlines grabbed a lot of headlines in the last several weeks as their stocks fell sharply. Investors are worried that the airlines will build up too much capacity and oversupply the market forcing them to lower fares and slash their profitability.

Railroad stocks are suffering on multiple fronts. The plunge in crude oil has wiped out demand for drilling new wells. That means less demand to move equipment and less demand for proppants (like fracking sand). Plus coal demand is falling.

Delivery stocks have struggled as well. FedEx (FDX) recently reported earnings that missed expectations on both the top and bottom line. Their previous earnings report the company lowered their 2015 guidance. Back in January UPS lowered their 2015 guidance and their most recent report saw revenues below estimates. The big railroad companies have been missing earnings and lowering estimates as well.

There has been a lot of attention given to the bearish divergence between the transportation stocks and the Dow Industrials. Thus far the broader market has ignored this weakness in transports. Traditionally investors viewed the transports as a thermometer of the market's health. If transports were seeing a healthy business then the economy was healthy. If transports were struggling then the economy was or would struggle. For decades there was a pretty good correlation between the two. These days there has been some doubt over how much this relationship still exists, especially since so much business takes place online.

Tonight we're not arguing if the transports are signaling a decline for the market or the economy. Instead we're looking at the transports themselves and focusing on the IYT. The ETF is clearly underperforming. It looked like it might bottom with support near $148.00. Unfortunately for the bulls the IYT just broke down under this support level. The next support could be down near its October 2014 lows in the $137-138 area. The point & figure chart is suggesting a target of $139.00.

We want to take advantage of this breakdown. Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $146.90. Plan on exiting prior to the August option expiration.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $145 PUT (IYT150821P145) entry $3.50

06/29/15 triggered @ $146.90
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Southwest Airlines Co. - LUV - close: 32.51 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 35.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +17.6%
Average Daily Volume = 7.9 million
Entry on June 16 at $33.85
Listed on June 15, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in late July
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: The market is still reacting to Wednesday's news about a U.S. government investigation into potential collusion among the major airlines. However, LUV didn't see a lot of movement on Thursday.

On Thursday night LUV announced it had reached a tentative agreement with the flight attendants union that would last until May 2019. Details were not disclosed but the company has been negotiating with the union for more than two years. This is a potentially bullish headline but we'll see if it can overpower the collusion story in the week ahead.

Don't forget that this week we'll hear June traffic numbers from most of the industry.

Trade Description: June 15, 2015:
Last year LUV was one of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 with a +124% gain. Shares are not seeing a repeat this year. In fact the stock is down -19% year to date. Most of the major airline stocks have been suffering as investors fear overcapacity will kill profits.

LUV is in the services sector. They're part of the regional airline industry. According to the company, "In its 44th year of service, Dallas-based Southwest Airlines (LUV) continues to differentiate itself from other air carriers with exemplary Customer Service delivered by more than 46,000 Employees to more than 100 million Customers annually. Southwest operates more than 3,400 flights a day, serving 93 destinations across the United States and five additional countries."

There are plenty of bullish investors rooting for LUV. After years of belt tightening with high oil prices the airline industry finally found some discipline and profits boomed. LUV has been a great example and many consider it the "best-in-breed" among the major airliners. LUV's earnings have surged from $0.43 a share in 2011 to $1.64 per share in 2014.

The big drop in crude oil last year was a major boon for most of the airline companies. Fuel is a huge expense and while oil has bounced off its 2015 lows it is still a lot cheaper than last year's prices. So why are airline stocks getting crushed? The biggest worry is the industry will build into much capacity (over supply) and this will lead to price wars, which could slash profitability.

On May 20th airline stocks were crushed, shares of LUV included, after the American Airlines CEO said they would aggressively compete on price. This is after AAL had already warned that their margins would shrink in 2016 versus 2015. News that LUV was planning to boost capacity by +8% in 2015 also helped spark the plunge lower.

The sell-off in airline stocks has continued as more companies downgrade their outlook. United Airlines (UAL) recently reported that their capacity had outpaced traffic growth. Delta (DAL) warned that their Q2 revenues would decline. Even LUV warned that their May passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) was down -6% from a year ago. They adjusted their 2015 Q2 PRASM estimate to be down -4% to -5% from a year ago.

In spite of all the negativity there are a ton of analysts who are still bullish on the group. If you do any research you'll see a lot of voices shouting that the airline stocks are a buy. You'll hear how the airlines will avoid the mistakes of the past. There are plenty of analysts suggesting the airlines are a buy because their valuations are so cheap. Even the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently raised their 2015 global estimate on airline profits from $25 billion to 29.3 billion thanks to lower oil prices and record high load factors (near 80%).

On one hand the bullish view point on airline stocks is true. Traffic is still growing. Oil prices remain depressed compared to the last few years. Valuations do look cheap. Eventually this group will get so cheap that they will find a bottom. Unfortunately that could be another -10% to -20% from current levels.

Technically LUV is a sell. The stock produced a bearish double top with its peaks in January and March. It has sliced through multiple layers of support and broken the longer-term up trend. The $34.00 level looks like short-term support. We are suggesting a trigger to launch short-term bearish positions at $33.85. Earnings are coming up in late July and we'll likely exit before LUV reports.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SEP $33 PUT (LUV150918P33) entry $1.87

06/22/15 new stop @ $35.45
06/16/15 triggered @ $33.85
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


SM Energy Company - SM - close: 43.53 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 48.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -9.1%
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Entry on June 19 at $44.49
Listed on June 13, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: SM looks like a bearish candidate again. The prior week shares produced an oversold bounce but the rally failed at its 20-dma. Shares of SM have retreated back to its June lows. The stock is down seven out of the last eight weeks.

Wednesday's low was $43.44. I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $43.35.

More conservative traders may want to lower their stop closer to the $47.00 level.

Trade Description: June 13, 2015:
SM has been around a long time. They were founded back in 1908. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company but they changed their name to SM Energy Company about five years ago.

SM is in the basic materials sector. According to the company, "SM Energy Company is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in onshore North America."

SM operates in the Rocky Mountain region including the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Further south, they drill in the Haynesville and Woodford shales of Texas and Oklahoma. SM also operates in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico. Even further south SM drills in the South Texas area with the Eagle Ford shale formation.

Crude oil's plunge in late 2014 crushed the oil sector and shares of SM followed it lower. Yet SM appeared to be having trouble before the big drop in oil prices. The company has missed Wall Street's earnings estimates the last four quarters in a row.

The huge drop in oil sparked significant cutbacks across the oil and gas industry with most major exploration companies reducing their capital spending plans. When SM reported their Q4 earnings in February 2015 they missed the EPS number by five cents and revenues were down -6.4% from a year ago. Management also slashed their 2015 investment plans by -44% from $1.9 billion to $1.0 billion.

SM reported its 2015 Q1 numbers on May 5th. Analysts were expecting a profit of $0.29 per share on revenues of $543.1 million. SM delivered a profit of $0.21 as revenues plunged -42% to $365.9 million.

Citigroup issued a research report last month that suggested U.S. oil producers will still be able to profit with oil at depressed prices. Here's a quote from a Bloomberg article, "belt-tightening across the industry and more strategic drilling in prolific areas would deliver ample profits even at $50 crude. The improvement is driven by costs that are expected to fall by 20 to 30 percent and techniques that allow rigs to wring 30 percent more oil or natural gas from each well compared with a year ago." That definitely seems like ammunition for the bulls to be buying some of the oil producers. Yet the group continues to lag. They are facing some stiff headwinds.

Crude oil has produced a +25% bounce off its March 2015 lows. Yet the rally in oil has stalled the last few weeks with the commodity churning sideways. The recent OPEC meeting showed that the Middle East shows no signs of slowing down their production. The world is temporarily facing a small oil glut.

Meanwhile currencies could play an issue here. It is widely accepted that the long-term trend for the U.S. dollar is now higher. The Federal Reserve will eventually raise rates, either later this year or early next year. When they start raising rates it should boost the dollar. At the same time central banks around the world (like Japan and Europe) are in the middle of huge QE programs that will drive their currencies lower. Naturally this will lift the dollar even higher. A rising dollar pushes commodities lower.

Technically shares of SM have been very weak. The broke down from a bullish channel a couple of weeks ago. The stock has also sliced through some psychological support levels. The point & figure chart is currently forecasting at $40.00 target. You could argue that SM is already oversold. However, the path of least resistance is lower. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $44.90 with a wide stop loss at $50.25 just in case SM does see a little oversold bounce.

- Suggested Positions -

Long AUG $40 PUT (SM150821P40) entry $1.65

06/23/15 new stop @ 48.75
06/19/15 triggered on gap down at $44.49, suggested entry was $44.90
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:



CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Aetna Inc. - AET - close: 125.51 change: -3.39

Stop Loss: 125.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +84.8%
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Entry on June 15 at $118.75
Listed on June 10, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: AET succumbed to profit taking on Thursday and shares fell -2.6%, hitting our stop loss at $125.85 in the process.

Over the weekend AET and HUM finally agreed to a deal. AET is buying Humana (HUM) for $37 billion in cash and stock. Headlines about a potential deal have been swirling for days. This announcement marks the largest deal in the insurance industry ever. The merger does need to be approved by government authorities who will examine it for antitrust issues.

- Suggested Positions -

OCT $125 CALL (AET151016C125) entry $4.34 exit $8.02 (+84.8%)

07/02/15 stopped out
06/25/15 new stop @ 125.85, healthcare stocks rally on SCOTUS decision
06/20/15 WSJ reporting that AET has made a bid for HUM 06/16/15 new stop @ 119.85
06/15/15 triggered @ $118.75 thanks to M&A speculation
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


Sirona Dental Systems - SIRO - close: 99.96 change: -0.76

Stop Loss: 99.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -51.7%
Average Daily Volume = 316 thousand
Entry on June 15 at $101.05
Listed on June 11, 2015
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/04/15: SIRO displayed relative weakness on Thursday. Shares failed near the $101.00 level early in the session and then reversed lower. The stock broke support near $100 and hit our stop loss at $99.65 midday.

*small positions to limit risk* - Suggested Positions -

SEP $105 CALL (SIRO150918C105) entry $2.90 exit $1.40 (-51.7%)

07/02/15 stopped out
06/23/15 new stop @ 99.65
06/15/15 triggered @ $101.05
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart:


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Entergy Corp. - ETR - close: 71.88 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: 72.55
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -64.7%
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Entry on June 26 at $69.25
Listed on June 25, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on August 4th
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
07/04/15: ETR has not cooperated. After breaking down under support near $70.00 a few days ago the stock has reversed higher. Shares are up four of the last five days. Thursday's rally broke through short-term resistance near $72 and hit our stop loss at $72.55.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG $67.50 PUT (ETR150821P67.5) entry $1.70 exit $0.60 (-64.7%)

07/02/15 stopped out @ $72.55
06/30/15 ETR saw a surge in volume today
06/26/15 triggered @ $69.25
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

chart: