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Consumer Discretionary Play

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McDonald's Corporation (MCD), together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants worldwide. Its restaurants offer various food items, and soft drinks and other beverages. The company also has a minority ownership interest in the U.K.-based Pret A Manger. The current dividend yield is 3.5% and pays $0.50 tomorrow. The stock price has been consolidating over the last four months and is staging an attempt at breaking out. The idea behind the bullish bet on Mickey D's is that American's are still lazy and won't want to stop eating out even though the economy is slowing down. Therefore, instead of eating at Applebees or Chili's, people will eat at MCD. Also, the line at Starbucks drive through has diminished over the last three months while the line at MCD has increased. I know that is some general research based upon a small sampling of my region of Florida. But there might be some validity to the assessment. The only kink in the slow down theory is based upon my visit to Ruth's Chris Steak House this weekend. It was as busy as I've ever seen it and the costs of meat and agricultural commodities has declined in recent months. But the play is to trade the December 52.5 Puts by entering half the position. The full position is 2 contracts on our account. The initial margin requirement is at $683 on one contract. The risk management is going to be set at a breach of the recent support of $51.55 from the 11/21 low.

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