THE BOTTOM LINE:
After projecting further downside targets, the Market instead rose in the shortened week then stalled around 21-day averages. Investors care more that they have little to no year over year gains likely for 2015.
The trend near year end here is sideways to lower after highs for the current move were made in early-November, early-December but unchanged or not down much either with just a few trading days left in 2015.
No doubt energy is weighing on the cap-weighted S&P and that in turn is keeping a check on Nasdaq. Nasdaq also hit some long-term technical resistance at summer highs and doesn't have a LOT of 'room' on the upside before implied resistance would be reached in terms of broad upper channel trendlines.
I don't see big downside risk or big upside potential in early-2016 and we may see a couple more months of a trading range market. Using the S&P 500 as a guage, SPX establishes a broad 2016 Q1 trading range between 1930 and 2130. A sustained move above 2130 would suggest upside to 2175-2200. A daily and weekly close below SPX 2000 support might mean lows near 1930 again.
Bullish trader 'sentiment' continued to rise on balance this past week. Initially, bullishness rose after the Fed acted finally and did its minor rate hike.
[My usual chart highlights for resistance levels are red down arrows; my highlights for support areas are the green up arrows.]
MAJOR STOCK INDEX TECHNICAL COMMENTARIES
S&P 500 (SPX) DAILY CHART:
A mixed technical/chart picture as the S&P 500 (SPX) trades sideways to lower; this is visually seen with SPX's descending highs that have followed (lower) the declining 21-day moving average.
A sustained move above 2100, that clears 2115-2130, is needed to turn momentum back up decisively and suggest targets to 2175 to 2200 over time. Near resistance is highlighted at 2070, extending next to the 2100 area.
Support is seen in the low-2000 area with next support likely at or near 1965, representing the deeper 62% retracement of the prior advance. Back to back closes below 2000 would suggest downside potential to 1965-1950.
There's been greater trader bullishness since bullish sentiment appeared to bottom out in early-December.
The S&P 100 (OEX) INDEX DAILY CHART
The S&P 100 (OEX) chart is mixed, with OEX trending sideways to lower after its peak at the end of the strong October Market rally.
A sustained move above 930, then to prior highs at 944-947, is needed to suggest another up leg was underway. Long-term resistance comes in starting at 1000.
OEX support comes in at 900-897, with next lower support coming in at 886-880. Long-term support starts in the 830 area.
I'm waiting for this trading range to continue or break out to upside or downside. Upside progress may be limited if the big cap S&P gets bogged down with pressures on the big energy companies. Technically, there's no compelling story suggested yet.
THE DOW 30 INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (INDU); DAILY CHART:
The Dow 30 (INDU) is showing a weaker chart picture than the S&P in its sideways to lower drift. The long-term trend is up but intermediate-term a decisive and sustained move above 18000, then 18200, is needed to suggest a new up leg was underway.
Near INDU resistance is seen at 17600, with next resistance at 17800. Above the 17800 area 17900-18000 looms large as a resistance overhang.
There are so few Dow stocks in sustained uptrends that it will take more of an across the board rally in INDU to create breakouts above the aforementioned resistances. We can currently count just 7 INDU stocks as still in strong long-term uptrends; i.e., GE, HD, MCD, MSFT, NKE, TRV and V currently.
Support is highlighted at 17200-17125, with next lower support at 17000-16960.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE (COMP) INDEX; DAILY CHART:
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) pattern is mixed or sideways/non-trending over the past two months. The next two months could be more of the same absent a sustained move to new highs above 5200.
Near resistance is highlighted at 5100, then at 5160-5176 per the chart. A decisive upside penetration of 5176-5200 is needed to suggest a next up 'leg' with potential to 5300. 5500 begins major technical resistance currently.
Key near support comes in around 4915 and a Fibonacci 38% retracement of the major October advance as seen on the chart. Next support is implied by the 50 percent retracement level at 4833. Major support comes in around 4500 as strongly implied by the double bottom made in this area.
THE NASDAQ 100 (NDX); DAILY CHART:
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is mixed; the trend has been sideways dating from its early-November high at 4735. Next was a low around 4500, then another high at 4739 followed by a second downswing to 4500. The aforementioned back and forth looks like a classic 'indecision' type trading range!
Near NDX resistance is highlighted at 4700, with next resistance suggested at the prior 4735-4739 highs. A definite 'milestone' high, made 15 years ago now, was seen at 4816. A sustained move above 4800-4816 would suggest potential for the big cap Nasdaq index to carry as high as 5000 by March.
Near support is highlighted at 4500, with next lower support suggested at 4400 at the 50% retracement of the strong October advance. Very long-term support comes in at 4000.
The NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock (QQQ); DAILY CHART:
The Nasdaq 100 tracking stock's (QQQ) chart is mixed as the trend is sideways currently; this is also considered a 'non-trending' pattern but I also consider a 'sideways' move a trend type as well.
QQQ's 2-month old trading range has been to the 110 area on the downside and to 115-115.4 on the upside, although one intraday high hit 115.7
Near resistance is seen at 114, then in the 115.4-115.7 zone. Near QQQ support is predictably highlighted at 110, with next lower support at 108 to 107.2
Lastly, I would note that QQQ's longer-term trend is UP, with long-term resistance at 120. Long-term support is at 105.
The RUSSELL 2000 (RUT); DAILY CHART:
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) continues in a trading range, with the low end between 1120-1100 on the downside and 1200 the anticipated high end of RUT's price range.
Use of the moving average 'envelope' indicator (available on most charting packages) with an upper resistance trading 'band' set at 2.5 percent ABOVE and a support line at 5 percent BELOW, the 'centered' 21-day moving average. This indicator, set with these parameters, has been useful in continuing to project likely extremes in RUT's price range.
Near resistance is at 1160 and highlighted is 1180 resistance, with next higher resistance coming in around 1200.
Near support is seen around 1130 to 1120, extending next to 1110 down to the 'milestone' 1100 level.
My last Index Wrap for 2015 and last for OIN, after 12-years. I will 'retire' from my weekly WRITING chore but the Market remains a keen interest always!
GOOD TRADING SUCCESS IN 2016!