Hope for Greece and a do or die rebound in the Chinese markets prompted a +211 rally in the Dow but unfortunately it only brought it back to neutral for the week. On the positive side, the morning short squeeze did not fade as the day progressed.
The Shanghai Composite spiked to a +4.5% gain on Friday after a +5.8% gain on Thursday. This was the biggest two-day gain since 2008. Unfortunately, it came after a -30% decline over the prior three weeks that wiped out more than $3.9 trillion in market cap. More than 1,300 stocks were still halted and trading was limited to only 53% of the market. Of those shares that did trade, about 90% were higher and limited out at the 10% per day maximum gain. Only 7 stocks closed in negative territory. (Hat tip to Art Cashin)
China instituted a ban on major stockholders and executives from selling shares for six months. The government ordered investment firms to buy nearly $42 billion in shares and they launched an investigation into short-selling, suggesting the practice had better stop. There are now more than 90 million individual retail investors and nearly 50 million of those are new to investing. The average investor account in China contains less than $15,000. Only 7% of the population has a brokerage account. The average PE of a Chinese stock has fallen from 108 at the height of the rally to "only" 57 today.
Bank of America (BAC) said the selling pressure would be relentless and there was a decent chance for another leg down once the government begins to withdraw liquidity and allows those 1,300 halted stocks to trade. Margin balances have fallen for 14 consecutive days after a 500% rise over the prior 15 months. Margin debt declined -$132.6 billion from the peak to $232.6 billion on July 8th. The government was trying to create a wealth effect from getting citizens to invest in the rising stock market but now it is losing face. Long term the government cannot manipulate the market and the retail investors will learn a hard investing lesson.
If you really want to know why the Chinese market rebounded consider this. "In an extraordinary statement on Thursday morning before the market opened, the People's Bank of China said it would lend an unspecified amount to the state-owned China Securities Finance Corp., which would use the money to support the stock market. This marks a departure from the CSFC's original mission, which was to finance margin lending by brokers. Already, the CSFC has lent 260 billion yuan ($42 billion) to 21 domestic brokers for the purpose of buying shares, and also bought an unknown amount of stock itself directly." WSJ.com
Basically China has invented a new form of QE where it buys stock instead of bonds in an effort to rescue the market. They are effectively printing new money to buy stock. Obviously, this will eventually end badly for the market since even China cannot print money forever. The goal is to increase the wealth effect for retail investors (consumers). If you are feeling prosperous because you made money in the market then you will spend some of that money on buying consumer goods.
The rally in Chinese stocks helped lift the market but Greek headlines were also in play. Some finance ministers were positive on the "turnaround" in Tsipras. Two weeks ago the Troika presented Tsipras with a list of reforms they needed to see before they would give Greece more money. Tsipras called it criminal coercion. He called a snap referendum to let the people vote on whether or not they were willing to accept the austerity terms offered by the Troika. More than 61% voted no and Tsipras promised to have a better deal with no austerity signed within 48 hours.
Fast forward to Thursday and Tsipras gave the Troika a proposal that was almost exactly the same as what the Troika had given him in the ultimatum two weeks ago. It was exactly the same austerity conditions that 61% of Greeks had voted against one week ago. Their solid vote of NO turned into an audible gasp of OH NO! It has been 140 hours and no signed deal and the deal he proposed could get him lynched when he returns to Greece. The only real change is that Tsipras is no longer asking for 15 billion euros in aid for 6 months but now he is asking for 54 to 80 billion and a three-year deal.
The Greek parliament as well as the parliaments of most of the eurozone nations have to vote on accepting a new deal. Despite huge crowds protesting outside the Greek parliament on Friday night, the lawmakers approved the "criminal coercion" terms that Tsipras has now decided to accept. Remember, he also vowed not to accept any proposal that does not include a write down of the debt, lower interest rates and a longer term. He will not get the write-down because it is prohibited by treaty but the Troika will probably extend the loan terms and pretend they expect the money to eventually be repaid.
Apparently having the banks closed for two weeks has made him a convert because another week of closures would produce rioting in the streets and serious civilian unrest.
On Saturday opposition to the third bailout began to appear among the EU finance Ministers. Many were opposed because they said Greece could not be trusted. Greece lied about their financial condition to get into the eurozone and then lied repeatedly on their periodic financial statements to the EU economic committee. Everything fell apart about six years ago when Greece ran out of money and could not pay their bills. They confessed to the EU and begged for money. When the EU investigated their finances, they found they were still lying and it took two years to find out exactly how much money they actually owed. In bailout 1 and 2, they were given money after they promised to make specific reforms. They said they were making them but they never made any real changes and the Troika implemented a check system to monitor them on a monthly basis.
Since the Greek government has a history of untruthfulness and saying one thing and doing another there are numerous EU countries that do not want to give Greece the money this time around. They are afraid Greece will say anything to get the money so the banks can reopen and then never follow through on the reforms they are proposing. Remember, Tsipras has said repeatedly that "the size of the debt to the Troika is not a Greek problem. They knew we could not pay but gave us the money anyway." The bottom line is that Greece is an economy where the government is still spending more than they take in on taxes and fees. Very few people pay taxes and most consumers pay cash for goods and services and that cash is not reported.
The markets celebrated the rebound in the Chinese markets and the potential for a deal for Greece. Both of those events could fade again next week.
The only economic report in the U.S. was the Wholesale Trade numbers for May. Inventories rose +0.8% compared to +0.4% in April and expectations for a +0.3% rise. While inventories rose the sales in May rose only +0.3% after a +1.7% rise in April. However, sales of petroleum products made up the bulk of sales in May. This is a lagging report for the May period and was ignored.
The calendar for next week has several hurdles. The Fed Beige Book on Wednesday is the Fed's report card on the state of the economy on a region by region basis. If the report is strong we can expect a rate hike in September. If it continues to contain soft spots then forecasts for September could slip.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey on Thursday is the most important regional manufacturing report for the month. Expectations are for a decline from 15.2 to 12.5. The spike from 6.7 to 15.2 last month was the first gain since September and analysts are expecting that gain to fade.
Janet Yellen will give her semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. What we heard on Friday from the Cleveland speech is probably what we are going to hear in her prepared remarks to Congress. Historically, her press conferences and testimony have resulted in a bullish bounce. Her "queen of the doves" role has been good for the market but there was some concern on Friday she may be turning a little more hawkish as the clock ticks down on a rate hike in 2015.
There are plenty of filler reports in green with the Retail Sales for June the most important. Estimates are for a decline from +1.2% to +0.4%. The Housing Market Index on Thursday is also expected to decline since home selling season has passed.
The most important event on the calendar is the Netflix 7:1 split on Tuesday after the close. On Wednesday, investors will finally be able to add Netflix to their portfolio for under $100 per share. I expect significant interest from retail investors. However, using Friday's closing price of $680 the post split price will be $97.14. Buying a 100-share lot will set you back $9,714 and you will have the equivalent of 14.28 shares at Friday's prices. Netflix will report earnings on Wednesday so be prepared for some volatility.
Morgan Stanley (MS) raised the price target from $620 to $750 on Friday because of a hike in earnings estimates. Their price target if the bull case plays out is $940. Other recent target hikes came from Nomura at $750, Oppenheimer at $775 and BTIG at $950.
Kroger (KR) will also split their stock 2:1 after the close on Monday. They had a nice pre-split run of about $3.50 over the last week.
Friday was a busy day for the airline sector. American Airlines said it was cutting capacity growth to only +1%, down from prior forecasts of +2%. Domestic capacity is expected to rise 1% to 2%, down from prior guidance of 2% to 3%. Shares of all airlines rallied on the news. This suggests American is not going to fight with Southwest (LUV) for market share after that company said it was increasing capacity in the coming months. American said total revenue passenger miles in June were 20.4 billion, up +2.8% from June 2014. Total available seat miles were 23.9 billion, up +2.4%. The total passenger load factor was 85.4%, up +0.4%. There are still available seats if you can find them.
American also said it was deferring delivery of five Boeing 787 aircraft and 35 Airbus A320neo planes. Under the new agreement, four of the 787s would be delivered in 2017 instead of 2016 and one will slip from 2016 to 2018. Ten of the A320s due in 2017 and 25 due in 2018 will all be deferred to 2021-2023. American is expecting to take delivery in 2015 of 75 new aircraft and retire 104. Shares were up slightly on the news.
After the close on Thursday United (UAL) lowered its guidance for Q2 saying earnings would be at the lower end of the range because of the strong dollar. United said pre-tax margin would be 12-13% compared to prior guidance of 12-14%. Also, capacity rose +2.3% for the quarter and slightly lower than the forecast range of 2.25% to 3.25%.
United suffered a 10-hour outage with all domestic flights grounded from late Tuesday until 10:AM Wednesday morning. The reason given was a "network connectivity" issue resulting from a router outage. Grounding 3,500 flights is going to cost them in Q3. The airline had an identical grounding on June 2nd that should have impacted Q2 earnings.
UAL shares still rallied on Friday from the American capacity news.
Franklin Electric (FELE) fell more than -30% intraday after they warned that Q2 earnings would be in the range of 35 cents compared to prior guidance of 54-48 cents per share. Shares fell from $31 to $22.71 before rebounding. The company blamed it on record rainfall in May and June in North America. This caused lower than expected shipments of the Pioneer branded water handling equipment. They also blamed the strong dollar for declines in Brazil and developing economies. Shares rebounded to close at $30 and the loss of only $1. Somebody bought the dip.
Shares of Cablevision (CVC) rose after French billionaire Patrick Drahi said he was interested in acquiring U.S. cable companies. He said he was interested in companies like Cablevision and Cox Communications during an interview with the WSJ. Cox is not a public company. Previously he had pursued Time Warner before they agreed to merge with Charter Communications. Shares of CVC rallied +7% on the news.
Barracuda Networks (CUDA) declined -19% after the company reported earnings of 9 cents that beat estimates by a penny but lowered guidance. For the current quarter they projected revenue of $78-$79 million that missed analyst estimates of $80.4 million. Earnings guidance of 9 cents was in line with estimates. Existing subscribers rose +18% to 252,000. Advance billing projections were also weak and that prompted the big selloff.
Zillow (Z) shares collapsed -8% after CFO Chad Cohen said he was resigning effective August 7th. He had been with the company since 2006 and was named CFO in 2011. Whenever a CFO resigns unexpectedly there are always worries over potential accounting problems. In the case of Zillow none of the analysts seem to view that as a possibility but you never know. Zillow is integrating the Trulia acquisition and this quarter and next will see a lot of charges and accounting irregularities in the earnings reports. Maybe Cohen was simply pushed to his limit trying to merge two different sets of books.
Late Friday news broke that Lockheed Martin (LMT) was in advanced talks with United Technology (UTX) to buy Sikorsky helicopter unit in a deal that could be worth more than $8 billion. This would be the largest since Lockheed bought Martin Marietta for $10 billion 20 years ago. Shares did not trade after the news broke.
Costco (COST) was upgraded by Oppenheimer from perform to outperform with a price target of $160. The analyst called it a "rare opportunity" with +15% upside potential. The analyst expects Costco to raise the membership fees and increase prices. Earnings estimates for 2015 are $5.15 to $5.20 and 2016 stretches to $5.70 per share.
The earnings calendar heats up next week with a flood of financial stocks led by JPM, WFC, BAC, C and PNC. Yum Brands reports on Tuesday with their update on the recovery in China. Tech giants Intel and Netflix report on Wednesday. Ebay and Google highlight on Thursday. A total of 39 S&P companies will report.
Crude prices took a tumble over the last week with the low at $50.58 on Tuesday. There are worries about a deal with Iran and the lack of declines in U.S. production. Production rebounded to 9.604 million barrels per day last week and that is only 6,000 bpd below the 40-year peak set the week of June 5th. More than 1,000 rigs have been taken offline but production continues to rise. Active rigs have risen for the last two weeks after 28 consecutive weeks of declines and that has spooked energy investors.
Active oil rigs rose by +12 the prior week and +5 this week to a total of 645. That is down from the peak of 1,609 in December. Gas rigs declined -2 to match their 18-year low at 217 that was set on April 17th.
Janet Yellen spoke on Friday and said it will still "be appropriate to hike rates at some point later this year." Here is the qualification. "However, the course of the economy and inflation remains highly uncertain, and unanticipated events could delay or accelerate this first step." She did not mention Greece in her speech other than to say the Greek debt crisis was one cause of uncertainty. Analysts thought she might have turned slightly more hawkish in her tone since the minimal mention of Greece suggested conditions in the U.S. mattered much more to the Fed.
In a July survey by Bloomberg 76% of analysts expect a rate hike in September and only 10% expect a hike in December. However, she spent a large portion of her 14-page speech explaining why labor markets still have not met the Fed's criteria for full employment. "A significant number of individuals still are not seeking work because they perceive a lack of good job opportunities." She also warned the low price of oil and strong dollar remained a major drag on the economy. She also reiterated that the Fed would not raise rates until it was reasonably confident that inflation would move back toward 2% over the medium term.
The flight to quality in the U.S. Treasuries ended quickly once the Greek government submitted the surrender plan and China's markets rebounded. The yield on the ten-year fell to 2.18% on Tuesday but rebounded to close at 2.417% on Friday as treasuries were sold.
The markets rebounded from three-month lows but they still closed the week with zero gains. The S&P 500 declined only -0.16 point but it was still a loss for the week and the third consecutive weekly loss. At the risk of boring readers with the facts, the S&P Bullish Percent Index has not budged off its nine-month lows at 54.8%. Only about half of the S&P stocks still have a buy signal. More than 45% of the S&P stocks are in a bear market with declines of more than 20%. The short squeezes on Thr/Fri helped pull the markets back to even for the week but the trend is still lower.
On the much broader NYSE Composite, only 45% of the stocks are trading over their long-term 200-day average after a dip to 39% early last week. That shows the broader market is very weak.
Internals were positive on Friday despite mediocre volume of 5.9 billion shares. Unfortunately, that was the lightest volume of the week. Advancers were nearly 5:1 over decliners. This was a short squeeze so any stock with any material short interest saw an excellent bounce.
Despite the apparent negativity Lipper said for the week ended Wednesday more than $14.1 billion flowed into U.S. equity funds. Another $3.1 billion flowed into bond funds. Investors are buying the dips. How long that will last is of course the mystery.
The S&P rebounded right to resistance at the 2078-2081 level and stalled as it has almost every day since July 1st. This resistance has been rock solid. However, the dip buyers at 2050 have also been very active. Every time the index closes in on that level, the rebounds have been very strong.
The 200-day average at 2056 has been broken multiple times but it remains in play. The 2078 level is the 150-day average and that remains resistance. The index appears trapped between those two averages and waiting for an all clear from Greece and China to break out. The Tue/Wed lows were three-month lows so the uptrend has been broken.
Now the test will be the 2040 level. If that level breaks, we could easily dip back under the support at 2000 from January. I have no reason to expect a further decline ahead of earnings but the charts are still negative.
We are at the mercy of the headlines from overseas until the flow of earnings picks up enough to drown them out. Greece has a good chance of a rescue next week but it is not certain. I fear China's markets could see lower lows because even a -30% dip is not enough to erase a +150% decline. There are a lot of profits to be captured and those 1,300 stocks can only remain halted for 30 days.
There is still a lot of uncertainty and that breeds volatility. There was not enough conviction to push through that 2080 level over the last 7 days and without positive news from overseas, I doubt that will happen on Monday.
The Dow got a lot of help from Apple (AAPL) with a gain of +$3.21 and IBM with a gain of +$3.10. United Health +2.81 and Goldman +2.38 were also big supporters. Apple broke multiple levels of support to decline as low as $119 on Thursday. Volume was nearly three times normal. This suggests somebody with a big position wanted out before earnings. The decline has been persistent since late May at the $133 high. The dip to the 200-day average at about $119 on Thursday was a key buying signal and volume on Friday was nearly twice normal.
Many of the stocks in the Dow, which had been in a downtrend, saw a significant bounce on Friday. I attribute this to short covering rather than a sudden urge to own those stocks. For instance, IBM had been in a downtrend since early May with resistance at $165. The stock exploded higher on Friday. Either sellers ran out of stock or the prospect of a Greek resolution scared the shorts to cover ahead of the weekend.
There were quite a few of the Dow charts that looked like IBM. There was too many to suggest there was a sudden urge to buy one or two stocks ahead of earnings.
The Dow dipped below critical support at 17,600 several times but each time the short squeeze the following day rescued it from any negative follow through. Unfortunately, with the exception of Friday every morning rally was followed by afternoon selling or an outright decline the following day. The volatility has been high with the VIX touching 20 on Thursday.
With multiple Dow components reporting earnings next week, that volatility is likely to stay with us. The expectations for the banks are not strong so there is the potential for an upside surprise. The expectations for Intel are weak so there is a potential for a surprise there also. GE will not surprise anyone but they report on Friday so they will not impact the Dow.
The 17,760-17,800 level has proven to be tough resistance and 17,500 was support on Wednesday and 17,550 on Thursday. Those are the levels to watch for next week.
Like the other indexes, the Nasdaq rallied right to resistance and stalled. That resistance is the 5000 level and despite a +85 point intraday gain it would not hold that 5000 level. Support on both Tuesday and Wednesday was 4900 with the 150-day average at 4906. The tech stocks have not been as weak as the other indexes but the resistance at 5000 could be formidable unless Greece is rescued over the weekend and we gap substantially higher on Monday.
The semiconductor sector ($SOX) is on the verge of breaking critical support at 650 and taking the Nasdaq even lower. With Intel reporting earnings next week, this will be a make or break report.
The Russell 2000 had a decent week and posted the largest gain of the major indexes. It was only .3% but it was a gain. The drop to support at 1230 on Tuesday saw that level hold and the 150-day average came through as support once again. The +18 point rebound on Friday appeared to be actual buying from equity funds but it could have been just short covering like the other indexes. The 1260 level is now resistance.
The Dow Transports closed at a two-week high at 8201 but I am not cheering. Given the weak oil prices and the rally in the airline sector, the transports should have been a lot stronger. This was a heavily shorted index so the 1.8% gain on Friday is no surprise.
I believe Friday's rally was simply short covering ahead of the decision on Greece on Sunday. Traders with short profits were taking them off the table and those with existing short positions were trying to decide what a Greek rescue over the weekend would do to the markets. If the EU agrees to the Greek plan in some form the banks could reopen in a matter of days and the markets should rebound strongly on the hope the Greek disaster has ended.
With the Chinese markets also in rebound mode there was too much risk for a combined Greek/China headline barrage and a monster gap open on Monday. Now that the market imbalances have been corrected, we will have to wait and see what headlines appear. There could also be a sell the good news event but I doubt it. Whatever happens on Monday will be our market tell for the rest of the week. If we gap open to the upside and fail to sell off in the afternoon then I would look for a positive week. If the headlines are mixed and resistance holds then I would expect some weakness until the headlines turn positive.
The best thing working for us next week is the beginning of the Q2 earnings cycle. Hopefully this will take investors focus off the geopolitical headlines and onto the earnings news. The strong dollar is still going to be a problem for international companies so expect that excuse to continue.
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I hope everyone has seen the new warnings on the pain relievers Ibuprofen, Advil and Motrin. The FDA has determined that they cause strokes and heart attacks and the risk begins in the first few days of consumption and increases with each day thereafter.
FDA Strengthens Heart Attack Warning on Painkillers
If Greece does not get a deal completed by Monday that allows the ECB to reopen credit lines for banks, many of them could close permanently on Monday. With banks bleeding cash at $100 million a day there is not enough left to open even at the 50 euro per day withdrawal limit. Customers are now lining up starting at midnight to make sure they are first in line because the ATMs run out of cash by late morning. A Greek banker said the banks would collapse if there is no ECB rescue on Monday. Greek Bank Failures Loom
The USA Today disclosed that President Obama had issued 30 Presidential Policy Directives and 11 of them are classified secret. The White House has not even disclosed the subject of the directives. They have the same force and effect as an Executive Order. The White House will not even admit the orders exist but the official numbering scheme was corrected last week to rename PPD29 to PPD30 because PPD29 had already been used. 11 Secret Presidential Directives
Hackers took over a German Patriot Missile battery on the Syrian border on Tuesday. According to officials, the missile system carried out "unexplained" orders. Officials believe the Sensor-Shooter Interoperability function was taken over and possibly the computer chip that controls the weapons guidance. Patriot Missile Battery Hacked
Complete text of the Greek surrender letter to the Troika. What happened to the obstinate and hostile attitude and "criminal coercion" claims?
Dear President and Managing Director,
The attached proposal for a comprehensive and specific reform agenda by the Minister of Finance of Greece - aimed at complementing the request for a loan facility from the ESM of July 8 2015 - is conveyed to you following the Euro Summit decision of July 7 2015.
In this context, it will be assessed by the three institutions to be presented to the Euro Group. It constitutes the result of many months of formal and informal negotiations that the Greek government undertook with the institutions at all levels, aiming at reaching a program that will be economically viable and socially just.
With this proposal, the Greek people and the Greek government, confirm their commitment to, fulfilling reforms that will ensure Greece remains a member of the Eurozone, and ending the economic crisis. The Greek government is committed to fully implementing this reform agenda - starting with immediate actions - as well as to engaging constructively on the basis of this agenda, in the negotiations for the ESM Loan.
This reform agenda constitutes part of the wider effort of the Greek Government, towards reforming the Greek economy and public administration, through fighting corruption, clientilism and inefficiency, promoting social justice and creating a positive environment for sustainable economic growth. Thanking you for our cooperation,
The bulls and bears continue to change sides with a 5% switch from bearish to bullish last week. This is relatively tame compared to the huge swings over the last several weeks.
This is the 15th consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been below its historical average of 38.8%. This is the longest streak since July 2012.
An ex-CIA analyst currently working for Goldman Sachs said "We are in an extraordinarily dangerous time right now." He is referring to the deterioration of U.S. and Russian relations and the increasing likelihood of a strategic conflict. Extraordinarily Dangerous Time
PC makers just had their worst quarter in almost two years according to Gartner. Global PC shipments declined -9.5% in Q2. Vendors are struggling to keep the hardware from stacking up ahead of the Windows 10 release later this year. Vendors are trying to liquidate inventory ahead of the Windows 10 shipments later in 2015 but nobody is buying. Prices of computers are rising as a result of their complexity and prices for tablets are falling thanks to carrier subsidies. The strong dollar is hurting sales overseas and both Asus and Acer each posted double-digit declines in sales. Lenovo remains the top supplier but they also had their first quarterly decline since Q2-2013. Hewlett Packard saw sales decline -9.5% and Dell sales fell -4.9%. PC Sales Falling
Morgan Stanley analysts are drinking the hopium Kool Aid. On Thursday they predicted global growth would accelerate to +4.0% in the second half of 2015 compared to +2.9% in the first six-months. Morgan Stanley says monetary stimulus is taking hold and will even be extended by 18 central banks this year. "Domestic demand in developed economies will be the key engine of growth." The analysts believe Greece will provide little contagion regardless of the outcome. Growth to Accelerate 4.0%.
The Iranian nuclear discussions just extended the deadline for the 7th time. It is now Monday evening. Kerry said they will not be rushed but they will not continue talking forever. The longer Iran talks the more they can get done in their research. The current president was a former nuclear negotiator and he has bragged that he kept the talks going for five-years while the research was accelerating. Stonewalling is an Iranian tactic. Cartoon from The Week.com
Apparently China stole the personal information of 21.5 million people when they hacked into the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM). The information stolen included their social security numbers, residency and educational history, employment history, details on immediate family members, business relationships, health, criminal and financial history and other details including fingerprints. The initial hack stole info on 4.2 million current and former government employees. The second breach specifically targeted individuals that had undergone background investigations in order to get security clearances. Victims will receive a "suite" of security services including monitoring of their credit bureau files. Those services will be provided by a third party, private contracting firm for a period of three-years.
The Senate has introduced a bill called Reducing the Effects of the Cyberattack on OPM Victims Emergency Response (RECOVER) Act. The act will provide lifetime identity monitoring and up to $5 million in identity theft protection for the victims. The head of OPM, Katherine Archuleta, resigned on Friday. 21.5 Million Records Hacked
This is a link to a very interesting website run by Norse Corp. They track cyber attacks in real time. Most types of initial penetration attack attempts have an identifiable set of computer code. Since everything has to travel over the Internet. Norse can track when that identifiable code travels through the Internet backbone. They can tell where it came from and who is being attacked. This page is a real time track of those attacks. I have been watching it over the last week and there has been a concentrated attack against something in St Louis from multiple points in China and Russia. The longer you leave the page up the more history is collected. Map.NorseCorp.com
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"There is no alternative to going in on the ground and pulling the [Islamic State group] up by the roots. If that scares you, don't vote for me."
GOP Hopeful SC Senator Lindsey Graham