Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Monday, 5/13/2013

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Option Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

Another Day, Another Record Closing High

by Linda Piazza

Click here to email Linda Piazza
Market Internals


Today global market participants woke up in a show-me-the-money mood. In China, economic releases hinted at a weaker second-quarter GDP while last week's inflation numbers may have stymied hopes for easing. Market participants asked, where's the money that's going to stimulate one of the world's important economic growth engines?

At the same time, U.S. futures traders were still digesting the implications of Friday's Wall Street Journal article concerning the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing plan. That article speculated that the U.S. Federal Reserve is planning its exit strategy for unwinding its current bond-buying program. While it shouldn't be a surprise that the Federal Reserve would plan how that program might be unwound, any such talk makes equity markets jittery. U.S. market participants want to be shown the money and, moreover, assured that it will be in evidence well into the future. Renewed speculation that easing could stop by the end of this year or even by the end of the summer, as a few experts posit, heightened concern and sent equities.

For about thirty minutes.

Then most recovered and bounced off their lows. The ESM showed Cyprus the money, disbursing the first tranche of financial assistance. Perhaps that contributed to a knee-jerk reversal of early losses on relief that many of the EU's member countries were going to collapse one after the other in domino effect. A better explanation might have been calls for upward revisions of U.S. GDP expectations this morning or just the typical buy-the-dip pattern that has been in place. Despite advancers that had been weaker than decliners, both the SPX and RUT headed up to new record highs. Only one of the two was to close in the green, however.

The SPX gained 0.07 or 0.00 percent on its way to a new record high. The Dow dropped 0.18 percent, but the NDX gained 0.04 percent. The RUT dropped 0.14 percent, and the SOX, a heftier 1.00 percent. The VIX dropped 0.56 percent but both the RVX and the VXN were up, 0.84 and 2.09 percent, respectively.

Gold futures (/gc) for June delivery settled 2.3 lower according to CMEGroup settlement prices. They pulled back amid concerns about demand from India. Today, the Royal Bank of India said that banks cannot import gold bullion on a consignment basis. Dealers reportedly stopped the sales of gold to jewelers. Copper (/hg) prices for June delivery gained 0.0075 after initial weakness due to demand concerns relating to China. Silver (/SI) for July delivery gained 0.038.

Crude (/cl) dropped to close the open outcry session at 95.12. Output increased among OPEC countries and demand dropped in China.

Volume was tepid once again.

Monday's Developments

Asian bourses turned in mixed performances. Friday, the yen dropped further against the dollar, with the USD/JPY pairing climbing above 100. The last two times the pairing was at this level was in October, 2008, and then briefly in early 2009 as the pairing rose to retest this level again before falling away into last year's 75.56 low.

With the weakening of the yen against a strengthening dollar, Nikkei 225 equities have been rising. After achieving a high not seen since 2008 on Friday and after the Group of Seven this weekend avoided singling out Japan for currency manipulation, the Nikkei 225 jumped one percent at the open last night. It closed 1.20 percent higher. The Hang Seng, however, dropped 1.42 percent, and the Straits Times, 0.43 percent. News from China may have colored their performances.

China's Shanghai Composite percent dropped 0.22 percent. In China, Fixed Asset Investment measured 20.6 percent rather than the anticipated 21.1 percent, and Annual Industrial Output rose 9.3 percent rather than the hoped-for 9.5 percent. Both numbers disappointed. Some experts speculate that the disappointing annual economic activity will lead to a lower-than-expected Q2 GDP, although not all agree. To complicate matters, last week's higher-than-expected inflation may have quashed speculation about easing. Where's that money to stimulate China's economy into hyper mode again?

In Europe, market watchers speculated that the ECB could lower one of its key interest rates below zero in an effort to convince banks to lend. Germany's finance minister opposes ECB purchases of asset-backed securities while Spain's prime minister urges the European Union to act with alacrity. Amidst the speculation, the euro had been weakening against the dollar. Last week, the EUR/USD dropped to a multi-week low before recovering slightly. European equities had reacted as equities often behave when their underlying currencies weaken: they climbed.

Today, as the Eurogroup met, European bourses started out with gains but soon dipped into negative territory. Most climbed off their morning lows by the day's close with the EUR/USD again weakening. The FTSE 100 closed near the flat line, up 0.02 percent. The DAX eased 0.03 percent, and the CAC 40, 0.22 percent. Spain's IBEX 25 dropped a more substantial 1.03 percent, and Italy's FTSE MIB, 0.65 percent.

After the European markets closed, the Eurogroup announced that Greece will also receive its next tranche of aid. This tranche totals 7.5 billion euros, with about 6 billion due next week in redemptions.

Although speculation about global easing policies and any effects on currency moves garnered the most attention today, U.S. market participants did have several economic releases to examine. Today's U.S. economic releases began with April's Advance Retail Sales. This number includes retail and food services and is adjusted for seasonal factors but not for price changes. Experts expected -0.3 percent, a drop a little less than the prior reported -0.4 percent. Retail sales surprised, rising 0.1 percent instead of dropping. However, the prior 0.4 percent drop was revised to a 0.5 percent decline. Although sales were nearly unchanged from the prior month, they were 3.6 percent higher than the prior April's numbers. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, however, total sales dropped 0.1 percent.

As might be expected in April, building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers saw sales jump 1.5 percent. Clothing and clothing accessories benefited from the season, gaining 1.2 percent. Non-store retailers' sales jumped 1.4 percent. Maybe some customers were buying ahead of legislative action to impose sales taxes on online sales? However, food and beverage stores, health and personal care stores, and gasoline stations all saw sales decline.

Shortly after the retail sales results were announced, analysts raised estimates for U.S. Q2 GDP. Goldman Sachs raised its "tracking estimate" to 2.1 percent from the prior 1.8 percent. JPMorgan raised its estimate for the US second-quarter GDP from 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent. Both firms attributed the action to the retail sales' result.

In conjunction with the release of the Retail Sales, the Census Bureau announced an "Intention to Revise." The results of the 2011 Annual Retail Trade Survey, new seasonal factors and the inclusion of a new sample prompt the revision of adjusted and not adjusted estimates. Revisions of the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report, Monthly Retail Trade, and Latest Quarterly E-Commerce reports will be released May 31, 2013. At 10:00 March's Business Inventories were reported as flat, with the prior 0.1 gain also revised to a flat level. Analysts had expected a gain of 0.3 percent, but perhaps those better than expected retail sales depleted inventories more than expected. The inventory/sales ratio was 1.29, slightly higher than the year-ago level of 1.26. The U.S. Census Bureau also announced its intention to revise these numbers to include new samples and new seasonal factors and incorporate the results of that 2011 survey.

Moody's weekly Business Confidence Survey eased to 30.2 after two weeks of modest gains. This report appeared at 10:00 am ET.

In other market news, Pimco's Bill Gross tweeted again about the end of the 30-year bull market in bonds. Just because the bull market may have ended, a bear market in bonds has not begun and might "never" begin, he clarified. A bear market would begin only when 2-3 percent real and 4-5 percent nominal GDP growth is sustained. Ten-year and thirty-year yields climbed today along with the dollar.

Story stocks today included Monsanto (MON, 106.83, down 1.29 or 1.19 percent), with the company receiving a favorable court ruling. This case involved the use of Monsanto's patented genetically altered soybeans. A farmer who had previously bought Monsanto's genetically altered seed for a first crop then bought a mixture of seeds from a grain elevator. These were seeds destined for animal feed, industrial use and food processing. Monsanto claimed that the farmer knew that some of those seeds were likely to be the ones genetically altered to tolerate spraying with Roundup. He planted them and sprayed them with Roundup, then saved the seeds of the ones that survived the spraying. Due to the contracts he had signed with Monsanto, is now ordered to pay Monsanto for the seeds he obtained in this manner. Justice Elena Kagan emphasized that the "holding today is limited." It did not address all self-replicating products such as those involved in vaccines, cell lines and software, as some had believed it would do.

Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO, 16.39, down 0.05 or 0.30 percent) jumped in after-hours trading after the company reported net income of $0.24/share on revenue of $299.5 million. In the year-ago period, the company had a net loss of $0.79/share on revenue of $148.1 million. Adjusted earnings, at $0.38/share, handily beat expectations of adjusted earnings of $0.23/share. Adjusted revenue of $303.1 million also beat expectations of $279.5 million. The company attributed the beat to the strong performance of "Bioshock Infinite." Although no major titles are scheduled for be released this year, the company's new projected revenue range for the year is $1.75-$1.85 billion, with the average above the prior projected $1.78 billion. As this article was edited for publication, the stock was last at 17.19, up 0.80 from the close.

Google's (GOOG, 877.53, down 2.70 or 0.31 percent) new manager of the Android division denied that an integration of Chrome and Android will be announced at that Goggle I/O developers' conference. The conference takes place this week. Nokia (NOK, 3.84, up 0.18 or 4.92 percent) and BlackBerry (BBRY, 15.88, up 0.34 or 2.19 percent) also have events this week, with NOK presenting its newest Lumia smartphone tomorrow. BBRY's CEO will be presenting tomorrow at a BlackBerry Live event in Florida.

Dell (DELL, 13.53, up 0.07 or 0.52 percent) asked for more information about Carl Icahn's takeover proposal. The most recent offer by Icahn and Southeastern Asset Management Inc. was termed an alternative takeover proposal. Dell's management wanted to know if it was the actual proposal the board could consider or only an alternate one in the event that the Silver Lake Partners deal under current consideration isn't approved.

Nordic American Tanker (NAT, 8.65, up 0.03 or 0.35 percent) reported earnings that missed. The company reported a loss of $0.43 per share, more than the anticipated loss of $0.26 per share. The company declared a dividend of $0.16 per share. The company noted signs of improvement in what was still deemed a "challenging" environment for tankers. The company said that the world economy needs to continue to recover before vessel demand and rates will increase, but that such increases could happen quickly.

Oops. Bloomberg News' editor in chief said today that journalists had access to client data about how Bloomberg terminals were used, but he claimed the access was limited and important customer data protected. Bloomberg is closely held by Thomson Reuters.

The ECB wasn't satisfied with that assurance, and the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury Department also wanted to know more about exactly what information was leaked via those Bloomberg terminals. Examples of the leaked data apparently included learning when a client had looked at information on bonds or equities, as well as information on the clients' login histories. The leaks also included aggregated data that did not leak "specific security information." No trading or portfolio information was leaked, the company said. Goldman Sachs blew the lid on Bloomberg News.

In India, ElectraCard Services admitted that hackers raised credit limits on prepaid cards then used those cards to steal from global banks in coordinated attacks on ATM machines. No customers' encoded data or pin numbers were compromised, the company claims. ElectraCard services was only one of the two companies where limits were raised on prepaid cards, according to a Reuters article. The coordinated ATM attacks resulted in a combined $45 million in withdrawals from two Middle Eastern banks in December. The cards processed by ElectraCard Services were allegedly responsible for $5 million of that, and the cards processed by EnStage, a company incorporated in California but operating out of Bangalore, was allegedly responsible for $40 million. MasterCard (MA, 555.84, up 0.71 or 0.13 percent) owns 12.5 percent of ElectraCard. MA did not appear to be adversely impacted, but this "news" may be old news.

After the horrendous death toll in Bangladesh's building collapse, at least four major retailers have said that they would assume costs of improvements in fire and safety in that country. WalMart (WMT, 78.50, down 0.39 or 0.49 percent) and Gap (GPS, 40.29, down 0.70 or 1.71 percent) were expected to do so, too, but had not yet announced that they would sign on as this article was edited for publication. Companies signing the document will be expected to pay as much as $500,000 a year to the fund the improvements. One expert said that WMT is the second-largest buyer of apparel produced in Bangladesh.

In geopolitical news, North Korea's leader Kim Jong II appears to have replaced his defense chief, General Kim Kyok Sik, with a little-known younger army general, Jang Jong Nam. Experts speculate that the effort is an attempt to consolidate his leadership by installing a younger general. The replacement should not be interpreted as a sign that North Korea will soften its hardline opposition to South Korea and the U.S., those experts warn.


Those new to my Monday Wraps might find the following two paragraphs useful when interpreting my charts. Those who have read the Wraps can skip straight to the charts. I set up nested Keltner channels on my charts. It's a run-of-the-mill channeling system like the more familiar Bollinger Bands. As with those more familiar BB's, channel boundaries are often targets for upside or downside moves. They also mark levels where prices might find support or resistance on closes. When several channel lines converge, that potential resistance or support might appear stronger, just as it would if 20-, 50- and 100-sma's all converge in one spot.

For the benefit of subscribers, I mark potential upside and downside target/support/resistance levels with ovals, usually green for upside and red for downside. Orange ovals are sometimes used when the darker-colored ones would not allow for a clear examination of the next target. From now on, I will mention the nearest potential support or resistance level in the discussion on the chart, but not the further-out ones. They can be located on the charts if price breaks through the nearest levels on consistent daily closes. If an interpretation such as "support levels appear stronger than resistance, so up looks more likely than down" is possible, I'll tell you. Often we traders must be able to defend our trade against a move in either direction.

As with any type of potential support or resistance, those with profits should be protective of those profits as support or resistance is tested. If prices find support and climb, look to the next higher oval, even one just broken through, as potential resistance. Do the reverse when resistance is breached. Hopefully, this format provides you with the information you need without requiring all night to read as happens when I list each potential support or resistance level individually.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:

We know the pattern bulls want to see on the SPX and other indices: strong bounces off tests of the red 9-ema followed by 3-5 sideways-to-sideways-up, small-bodied candles. The last step is a quick dip to retest the red 9-ema before the pattern repeats. Since May 8, we have been seeing the sideways portion of the pattern on the SPX and some other indices.

In the normal course of this rally pattern, it would soon be time for the SPX to dip and retest the sharply rising red 9-ema, probably by Wednesday or Thursday. However, the SPX is in breakout mode on the daily chart, pulled above all Keltner channels. Price moves prove more unpredictable when the entity is in breakout mode. The SPX could as easily zoom upward, skipping the seemingly due 9-ema retest, or it could plunge right through that 9-ema without stopping.

If such a red 9-ema retest occurs and the SPX bounces sharply to a new high after that test, the rally mode continues. However, this daily chart offers no further upside potential targets. The weekly chart suggests a next potential upside target of 1675. Bears should be aware of that potential target as long as the SPX continues to find support on daily closes at or above a rising red 9-ema. Bulls, however, should not count on such a target being reached but should guard bullish profits amid renewed talk of an end to easing sooner rather than later.

If the SPX retreats, a failure to find support on daily closes at the red 9-ema could retest the next downside target at about 1594-1606. A successful holding of daily closes at or above this zone followed by a bounce still constitutes a bullish pattern for the SPX. If 1594 support should fail, however, lower potential targets are marked. It would be a failure of support from about 1560-1575 that would mark a much more bearish climate.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:

The Dow is also in breakout mode on the daily Keltner chart, pulled above the normal outside channel boundaries. Bulls want to see the Dow continue to find support on daily closes at or above a sharply rising red 9-ema. No further potential upside targets are suggested by this daily chart, but we can look to the weekly chart. That chart suggests an upside target of 15475-15800, a possible target made more viable if continued daily closes are at or above the red 9-ema. Bears should be aware of this possible upside target, but bulls should not count on it being hit. Entities in breakout mode sometimes crash abruptly.

Entities in breakout mode sometimes melt upward, too, so there's no assurance that the Dow will obey normal patterns for rallies. It might just melt upward again without retesting the red 9-ema. However, as with the SPX, a more normal pattern would see the Dow retesting the 9-ema by Wednesday or Thursday. Bulls want to see daily close support hold there or at least by 14800, where the grey channel's support might lie if prices retreat. Lower potential targets are marked if that support does not hold on sustained daily closes. Daily closes below 14500-14512 would mark a significant change in the Dow's pattern this year.

Annotated Daily Chart of the NDX:

The NDX looks overdue for a pullback to the red 9-ema. Prices have pulled well ahead of this moving average, and gains have been produced in 12 of the last 16 days. While that's no guarantee that the NDX will pull back, bulls should prepare for that possibility. As long as the NDX maintains daily closes at or above the red 9-ema on pullbacks and then bounces from that average, it maintains a potential upside target just above 3000.

A failure to hold support at the 9-ema targets a pullback further through the orange rectangle, toward stronger support in the 2900-2916 range. Daily closes below 2900 or closes near 2900 that then find significant resistance on a bounce back to 2945-2950 will undo that potential 3000-ish upside target. A failure to hold support near 2900 sets a new downside target instead, near 2833-2867. Lower potential downside targets are also marked, if needed.

Annotated Daily Chart of the RUT:

The RUT is not in a full-out momentum run as far as the Keltner channeling system is concerned. It's been finding resistance on daily closes at or near the outer boundary of its Keltner channels, now near 977-978.

If the RUT should shoot up through this boundary on a tall-bodied candle and not retreat the next day, the weekly chart suggests a potential upside target of 1025-1075. However, we all know, don't we, that the round-number 1000 level will provide psychological resistance if not historical or Keltner resistance?

The RUT has been employing a definite "sideways up" cast to its consolidation since it broke above 960. Still, in the normal course of events, it would be time by Wednesday or Thursday, at least, for the RUT to retreat to retest its rising red 9-ema. Holding support at or above that moving average and bouncing from it would be part of its normal rally pattern.

Even a drop to 933-947 wouldn't do too much damage to sentiment, especially if support kicked in near the top rather than the bottom of that zone. However, consistent daily closes below the bottom of that zone would be a departure from the RUT's pattern for this calendar year and would target the next marked lower potential target zone.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow Jones Transports:

The Dow Jones Transports often lead the pack, and they may be leading the pack into a red 9-ema retest with today's close approach. Was this approach close enough? The transports usually dip all the way to the red 9-ema before bouncing. That's no guarantee they will this time, of course.

This is not an optionable index, so we're not watching it in order to trade it. Rather, we use it to assess the economy's health and general trading sentiment. Therefore, bulls and bears alike may want to watch the transports' performance with respect to the red 9-ema.

Tomorrow's Economic and Earnings Releases

This week's important economic events are carried forward from Jim Brown's weekend Wrap.

What about Tomorrow?

Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the SPX:

After today's initial weak first 30-minute candle, most 30-minute closes were at or above the red 9-ema. That 9-ema flattened by this afternoon, however as prices churned sideways. Short-term bulls would have liked to have seen stronger action that kept the average turning higher.

By the close, the SPX looked as likely to drop toward 1625-1630 potential support as it did rise into 1635-1640 resistance. Short-term bulls can still feel comfortable as long as 30-minute closes remain above 1625 or perhaps last Thursday's lows, but consistent closes below that target 1616-1621. They would mark a change in the short-term tenor. A next lower target is also marked in case 1616 should be breached on consistent 30-minute closes.

Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the Dow:

The Dow's action also flattened its 30-minute red 9-ema rather than keeping it turning higher in full-out rally mode. By the end of the day, the Dow looked as likely to drop into 15050-15070 potential support as it did climb up to test 15125-15175 potential resistance. Sustained 30-minute closes below about 15050 target the next potential support zone, near 14960-1500, and mark a change in short-term tenor. A lower next potential target is also marked, in case that 14960 zone fails to provide support.

Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the NDX:

Like the SPX and Dow, the NDX's action flattened its red 9-ema rather than keeping it moving higher in full-out rally mode. That action renders it as likely that the NDX could drop toward 2962-2972 as climb up toward 2988-2922 potential resistance. Past that 2922 zone, 3000 will be singing a sweet tune to excited market participants.

If the NDX drops into that next support zone instead and doesn't hold support there on 30-minute closes, we're seeing at least a slight change in short-term tenor. Such action sets up a potential downside target from about 2940-2952. Failure to hold support there on consistent 30-minute closes would target the next downside target marked on the chart.

Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the Russell 2000:

While other indices were flattening their red 9-ema's, the RUT was producing 30-minute closes at or beneath a rolling-lower red 9-ema. On the surface, that gives the edge to a dip toward next support over a rise to next resistance, unlike the equal chances for either on the other indices. That outlook can be erased by a gap up tomorrow morning, however.

If the RUT climbs tomorrow, resistance might be found from about 974-978, where potential Keltner resistance might be pushed on a move higher tomorrow morning. A test of support and subsequent failure to hold support on 30-minute closes at or above about 968 targets the next potential support zone, from about 960-965, and would constitute at least one sign of a change in tenor over the short-term. Further potential downside targets are marked, if preceding ones are violated on consistent 30-minute closes.

I wanted to comment on all these downside targets and few upside targets on these charts. Am I marking more downside targets because I'm more bearish than bullish? No, this is a factor of the strong climbs that ran through all upside targets, leaving none to mark. The presence of more downside targets doesn't guarantee that they'll be hit, but it does serve as a reminder to us all that prices have been overrunning boundaries for quite a while.

Seventeen consecutive Tuesday's have produced Dow gains. Will tomorrow be another such Tuesday or will that pattern dissipate now that everyone knows about it? As I was studying daily charts and typing potential upside targets such as "just above 3000" for the NDX and figures above 1000 for the RUT, I wondered if these new siren calls will seduce investors and traders the way SPX 1500 and 1600 and Dow 14000 and 15000 have done these last few months. Obviously, I don't know what will happen tomorrow. All I can talk about are patterns and probabilities, and we've got a pattern that should be asserting itself soon, with the emphasis on "should." In the regular course of trading, indices are all due this week for a pullback at least to their red 9-ema's. If that pullback should occur, the behavior with respect to those retests will give us more clues about what happens next.

New Option Plays

Energy & Software

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown


Occidental Petroleum - OXY - close: 90.53 change: +1.36

Stop Loss: 87.75
Target(s): 98.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
OXY is in the energy sector. The stock has been showing strength and continued to show relative strength today with a +1.5% gain. There has been a lot of drama surrounding OXY's leadership but it appears the company has sorted the mess out with the current CEO staying on board through 2014.

Technically traders are buying the dip to $88 and now OXY is crossing back above the $90.00 level. On the weekly chart (see below) OXY has created a huge, inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is bullish.

I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $90.75. If triggered our target is $98.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for OXY is bullish with a $114 target.

Trigger @ 90.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $92.50 call (OXY1322F92.5) current ask $1.85

Annotated Chart:

Weekly Chart:

Entry on May -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 6.3 million
Listed on May 13 2013


Intuit Inc. - INTU - close: 58.99 change: -1.21

Stop Loss: 60.25
Target(s): 55.65
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on May 21st
New Positions: Yes, see below

Company Description

Why We Like It:
INTU is in the software industry. Back on April 24th the company issued an earnings warning. The next morning shares collapsed with a plunge past $56.00. Since then INTU has managed an oversold bounce. That rebound has reversed at resistance near its 200-dma. Now INTU is rolling over.

Last week's low was $58.88. I am suggesting a trigger to buy puts at $58.75. If triggered our target is $55.65. More aggressive traders could definitely aim lower.

Trigger @ 58.75

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $57.50 put (INTU1322R57.5) current ask $1.35

Annotated Chart:

Entry on May -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on May 13 2013

In Play Updates and Reviews

Closing LL On An Up Note

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

Today we closed our bullish Lumber Liquidators (LL) trade near its new highs.

Elsewhere KORS was triggered. ROST was stopped out.

We want to exit our EXPE trade immediately.

Current Portfolio:

CALL Play Updates

The Boeing Co. - BA - close: 94.76 change: +0.52

Stop Loss: 92.40
Target(s): 99.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: +17.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: BA displayed some relative strength on Monday with a +0.5% gain Yet the stock remains inside the $94-95 trading range. More conservative traders may want to ratchet up their stop loss. Readers may want to wait for a move past $95.25 before considering new bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $95 call (BA1322F95) entry $2.02

Entry on May 06 at $94.25
Average Daily Volume = 4.9 million
Listed on May 04 2013

HanesBrands Inc. - HBI - close: 49.91 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 48.75
Target(s): 54.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -32.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: HBI's performance today was disappointing with a -1.2% decline. The close below the $50.00 mark and below its 10-dma is also very short-term bearish. I am not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders could tighten their stop loss.

NOTE: HBI is scheduled to begin trading ex-dividend on May 16th. The quarterly cash dividend should be 20 cents.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $50 call (HBI1322F50) entry $2.00

Entry on May 08 at $50.72
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on May 07 2013

Michael Kors - KORS - close: 60.98 change: +0.62

Stop Loss: 57.65
Target(s): 64.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: -11.7%
Time Frame: exit PRIOR to earnings on May 29th
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: KORS continued to show relative strength on Monday. Unfortunately much of today's gain occurred on the stock's gap open higher. The gap was sparked by news that KORS had been added to Morgan Stanley's "best ideas" list. We had a trigger to buy calls at $60.65 but the open at $61.55 triggered our play instead. I would wait for a dip back to the $60.50-60.00 zone as an alternative entry point if you're still looking to launch positions.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $62.50 call (KORS1322F62.5) entry $3.40

05/13/13 trade triggered on gap open higher at $61.55
trigger was $60.65

Entry on May 13 at $61.55
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
Listed on May 11 2013

L Brands, Inc. - LTD - close: 50.85 change: -0.79

Stop Loss: 50.40
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -13.0%
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings on May 22nd
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: At a national level April's U.S. retail sales came in better than expected. Economists were estimating a -0.3% decline but the government said retail sales grew +0.1%. This should have been bullish for the retail stocks yet the retail sector retreated. LTD displayed relative weakness with a -1.5% decline. Today's breakdown below TLD's 10-dma is short-term bearish. If there is any follow through tomorrow we'll likely see LTD hit our stop loss at $50.40. More aggressive traders may want to readjust their stop so it's below the $50.00 mark.

Keep in mind we that we want to exit prior to LTD's earnings report on May 22nd.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $50 call (LTD1322F50) entry $2.26

05/11/13 we want to exit prior to earnings on May 22nd.
05/07/13 new stop loss $ 50.40

Entry on May 03 at $50.85
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
Listed on April 27 2013

MEDNAX, Inc. - MD - close: 90.23 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 88.90
Target(s): 98.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

05/13/13: MD spent Monday quietly churning sideways in narrow range. We are waiting for a breakout higher.

Earlier Comments:
The early April high was $91.00. I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $91.15. If triggered our target is $98.50. However, I am suggesting we keep our position size small. MD doesn't trade a lot of volume and the options do not see a lot of volume either.

Trigger @ $91.15 *Small Positions*

- Suggested Positions -

buy the Jun $95 call (MD1322F95)

Entry on May -- at $---.--
Average Daily Volume = 242 thousand
Listed on May 11 2013

WellPoint Inc. - WLP - close: 76.01 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 73.35
Target(s): 79.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: +17.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: WLP continues to show strength. Traders bought the dip this morning and WLP inched back up to positive territory. I don't see any changes from my prior comments.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $75 call (WLP1322F75) entry $1.91

Entry on May 08 at $75.25
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on May 07 2013

PUT Play Updates

Allergan Inc. - AGN - close: 103.86 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 105.30
Target(s): 98.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: -21.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: Monday turned out to be a quiet session for shares of AGN. Shares drifted sideways and closed with a minor decline. Depending on your trading style you could look for a failed rally near $105.00 as a new entry point or a new drop below $102.80 as a new entry point.

Earlier Comments:
There is potential support at $100.00, at the 200-dma near $97.85, and at the May 1st low of $96.77. I am suggesting we aim for $98.50.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $100 PUT (AGN1322R100) entry $1.85

Entry on May 09 at $103.46
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on May 08 2013

Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 58.87 change: +2.90

Stop Loss: 60.25
Target(s): 1st target: 55.10, 2nd target 53.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -36.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: EXPE's rival Priceline.com (PCLN) continues to surge higher and that's lifting shares of EXPE as well. EXPE gained +0.9%, bucking the market's sideways trend today. The stock is currently testing potential technical resistance at its simple 200-dma. There is also likely resistance at the $60.00 level. Yet given EXPE's sudden reversal we are throwing in the towel. I am suggesting an immediate exit tomorrow morning. More aggressive traders may want to hang on and see if EXPE reverses at this resistance.

- Suggested Positions -

Long Jun $55 PUT (EXPE1322R55) entry $1.50

05/13/13 prepare to exit tomorrow morning at the open

Entry on May 07 at $58.48
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
Listed on May 06 2013

Longer-Term Play Updates

Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. - CBI - close: 57.35 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 51.90
Target(s): 62.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: July's: +86.3% or Jan's: +44.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 months
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: Traders bought the dip in CBI near its 50-dma this morning. The stock displayed a little bit of relative strength with a bounce back into positive territory.

Please review our original play description on this page here.

- Suggested Positions -

Long 2013 Jul $55 call (CBI1320G55) Entry $2.20*

- or -

Long 2014 Jan $60 call (CBI1418A60) Entry $2.90*

05/08/13 new stop loss @ 51.90
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play opened.

Entry on April 22 at $51.53
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on April 20 2013


Lumber Liquidators - LL - close: 89.28 change: +0.30

Stop Loss: 79.45
Target(s): 89.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: +55.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: Target achieved. LL continues to outperform the market. Shares rallied to $89.99 midday before paring its gains. Our exit target was $89.50. However , over the weekend we had decided to exit positions immediately on Monday morning at the open to lock in gains. LL opened at $88.62.

*Small Positions* - Suggested Positions -

Jun $85 call (LL1322F85) entry $4.10 exit $6.38 (+55.6%)

05/13/13 planned exit at the open
05/11/13 prepare to exit on Monday morning (May 13th) to lock in gains
05/07/13 triggered on gap open higher


Entry on May 07 at $84.35
Average Daily Volume = 761 thousand
Listed on May 06 2013

Ross Stores - ROST - close: 64.95 change: -0.90

Stop Loss: 64.95
Target(s): 69.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: -32.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to earnings in late May
New Positions: see below

05/13/13: In the weekend newsletter I expressed concerns about our ROST trade. The U.S. retail sales data for April should have been bullish for retail stocks. Yet the group declined and ROST underperformed with a -1.3% drop. Shares have broken down and closed below technical support at the 10-dma. ROST also hit our stop loss at $64.95.

- Suggested Positions -

Jun $67.50 call (ROST1322F67.5) entry $1.55 exit $1.05 (-32.2%)

05/13/13 stopped out
05/11/13 new stop loss @ 64.95
05/09/13 new stop loss @ 64.70
05/04/13 new stop loss @ 64.15
05/01/13 new stop loss @ 63.90


Entry on April 26 at $65.25
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on April 25 2013